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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:11 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 698, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 696, Menalque wrote:Insofar as you’re able to I’d like you to comment on what I’m producing here in real time LL
I can. I'm not sure what you currently want me to respond to, however.
Mostly just your general thoughts on what I’m saying/on my catch-up

You’re probably my top pick for partner if wooper is scum and so I want to try and get that read by seeing you post in response to me in real time
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:11 am

Post by Menalque »

What do you think of homura?

In fact can you give me a full readslist?
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:14 am

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Do you agree that crush and ceejay are both obvtown slots?
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:23 am

Post by LuckyLuciano »

Spoiler:
In post 701, Menalque wrote:What do you think of homura?

In fact can you give me a full readslist?
In post 702, Menalque wrote:Do you agree that crush and ceejay are both obvtown slots?


I've already posted all this info, you just haven't gotten to it yet. Crush is obvtown. I don't agree that CJN is. I think scum is either Titus + You or Ceejay + Wooper. I think Ceejay + Wooper would have required a level of coordination from TSE + Cheeky that I just don't buy, therefore I think scum is Titus + You. I think that You and Titus want to mislynch Wooper today and then mislynch me next DP. I think Titus' instantaneous vote on your slot (non) when I called out Titus + Non scumteam was fake and only in place because non was getting replaced and she could unvote when you came into the game. I think in the case where it's beneficial to bus your slot she is ready to because she thinks leading a bus will defer me from looking at her for a DP, buying her time for a mislynch, and then she will lead a mislynch against me on the final DP. Her interactions with me all game scream that she's pocketing me as the LYLO mislynch target.
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:25 am

Post by Plotinus »

Official Vote Count 2.06
Image




LynchingWith 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Titus
(2): Wooper, LuckyLuciano
Menalque
(1): Titus
Wooper
(1): Menalque

Not Voting
(3): Crush, Homura, ceejayvinoya

Deadline:
(expired on 2020-03-20 12:15:00).


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Menalque is the new Non lmh![/area]
The failure mode of clever is asshole.

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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:32 am

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That seems like you’re dealing quite heavily in associatives with slots that haven’t flipped yet. Do you think that’s a reliable way to scumhunt?

How would titus!wcum + me!scum mislynching wooper!town today be likely to lead to your mislynch tomorrow?

If your reads have been uncommonly accurate (which at least re: Phoenix they don’t seem to have been) why wouldn’t scum kill you > Phoenix and then leverage that into mislynching you today?
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:32 am

Post by Menalque »

Also, what do you mean by “pocketing me as the final mislynch target”
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:33 am

Post by Menalque »

Afaict the only one talking about lynching you rn is me and yesterday it was mostly Phoenix?
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:35 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 386, Titus wrote:I'm also not reading Phoenix v LL or voting either one today.
Why did you not wanna read this titus?
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:37 am

Post by LuckyLuciano »

My associative reads came DP2. DP1 I lead wagons on two players who I thought were either bad!town or !scum, because I don't wagon players who produce quality content on DP1 unless they straight scum-slip. Plus, phoenix claimed PR. I think town!Wooper is the player most in-sync with me atm, and the mafia knows I know who dies this NP, and why they die this NP. Looking at the players who will remain next DP, I'm their best mislynch target for the game-winning push. I think Titus' play interactions with me are setting her up to go from townreading me to saying later on that she thought my play was TBTBAW but was wrong.
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:40 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 709, LuckyLuciano wrote:My associative reads came DP2. DP1 I lead wagons on two players who I thought were either bad!town or !scum, because I don't wagon players who produce quality content on DP1 unless they straight scum-slip. Plus, phoenix claimed PR. I think town!Wooper is the player most in-sync with me atm
, and the mafia knows I know who dies this NP, and why they die this NP
. Looking at the players who will remain next DP, I'm their best mislynch target for the game-winning push. I think Titus' play interactions with me are setting her up to go from townreading me to saying later on that she thought my play was TBTBAW but was wrong.
What?

Why do you think you’re the best mislynch target?
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:41 am

Post by Menalque »

Also you make that sound like you’re sure that the next day will be lylo but rn the top wagon is one of your scum reads, so I don’t follow you there?
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:42 am

Post by LuckyLuciano »

In post 706, Menalque wrote:Also, what do you mean by “pocketing me as the final mislynch target”
We have 7 players. 5 town, 2 mafia. Mafia needs 2 mislynches to win. You don't NK your mislynch targets, because you cannot mislynch locktown players (to reiterate why Karnage was the lynch push despite accurate reads, and Phoenix was the NK). DP1 my pushes were on a town and an unflipped who you are reading as obvtown, and my EOD vote was on a mislynch. You have called Homura out for scumreading 3 town, but haven't called me out on the same thing. Titus has been dismissing my content or straight up ignoring parts of what I post to avoid meaningful interactions. If I'm mafia!Titus + mafia!Menalque, I know that the Lucky slot was over-read as town DP1 for very little reason and that if town!Wooper dies today, and the obv NK target dies tonight, that sets the Lucky slot up for a mislynch. I'm also thinking ahead to where if I'm scum!Titus it's not bad to bus scum!non and would be FTTW because I think I can lead the Lucky slot to a ML next DP and then ML Lucky at LYLO. This analysis is all wasted if Titus is actually a shit mafia player, which I don't think she is.
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:43 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 415, TrueSoulEnergy wrote:There’s Def scum within (Karnage, Titus and Phe0nix)
Guess titus is prob town then
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:45 am

Post by Menalque »

What do you mean by FTTW?
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:46 am

Post by LuckyLuciano »

In post 712, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 706, Menalque wrote:Also, what do you mean by “pocketing me as the final mislynch target”
We have 7 players. 5 town, 2 mafia. Mafia needs 2 mislynches to win. You don't NK your mislynch targets, because you cannot mislynch locktown players (to reiterate why Karnage was the lynch push despite accurate reads, and Phoenix was the NK). DP1 my pushes were on a town and an unflipped who you are reading as obvtown, and my EOD vote was on a mislynch. You have called Homura out for scumreading 3 town, but haven't called me out on the same thing. Titus has been dismissing my content or straight up ignoring parts of what I post to avoid meaningful interactions. If I'm mafia!Titus + mafia!Menalque, I know that the Lucky slot was over-read as town DP1 for very little reason and that if town!Wooper dies today, and the obv NK target dies tonight, that sets the Lucky slot up for a mislynch.
I'm also thinking ahead to where if I'm scum!Titus it's not bad to bus scum!non and would be FTTW because I think I can lead the Lucky slot to a ML next DP
and then ML Lucky at LYLO. This analysis is all wasted if Titus is actually a shit mafia player, which I don't think she is.
To expand upon the bolded, if I'm scum!Titus I hold this statement to be true because Lucky declared scum!Titus + scum!Non, and if I lead the lynch on scum!Non then obviously Lucky thinks he was wrong on his read and sheeps me to a mislynch the following DP. This, of course, is the plan B than only needs to be executed if I don't find an easly way to unvote scum!Menalque as he replaces scum!Non. That's why I locked Titus' actions in .
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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:46 am

Post by Menalque »

I don’t know what you mean when you keep saying “the obvious NK target”
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:46 am

Post by LuckyLuciano »

In post 714, Menalque wrote:What do you mean by FTTW?
First to the wagon.
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:49 am

Post by Menalque »

If wooper is lynched today and flips town, which I doubt but possible, then surely you being lynched D3 is much less likely than you managing to get one of me/titus lynched given that I at the very least would have just hard pushed a mislynch

So I don’t really think your paranoia about being setup as the game losing mislynch makes sense, esp given that, again, you don’t seem to be in any real danger of being mislynched and certainly not before my rep in
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:49 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 717, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 714, Menalque wrote:What do you mean by FTTW?
First to the wagon.
What does this mean
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:49 am

Post by Menalque »

Are you from Town of Salem by any chance?
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:52 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 439, Titus wrote:TSE is now a full blown scumread.
You don’t think town!tse is capable of making the aggressively bad “let’s lynch in Phoenix/LL to stop them fighting” push?
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:54 am

Post by LuckyLuciano »

In post 719, Menalque wrote:
In post 717, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 714, Menalque wrote:What do you mean by FTTW?
First to the wagon.
What does this mean
The first person on the wagon of a scum player typically gets more towncred than other players on the wagon. I think scum!Titus being the first to vote scum!Non has a lot of strategic value.
In post 720, Menalque wrote:Are you from Town of Salem by any chance?
No.
In post 718, Menalque wrote:If wooper is lynched today and flips town, which I doubt but possible, then surely you being lynched D3 is much less likely than you managing to get one of me/titus lynched given that I at the very least would have just hard pushed a mislynch

So I don’t really think your paranoia about being setup as the game losing mislynch makes sense, esp given that, again, you don’t seem to be in any real danger of being mislynched and certainly not before my rep in
That really depends on how other players decide to interact with the ongoing discussions this DP. The only votes on Titus ATM are Wooper and myself. We haven't had other players weigh in. With Wooper gone, I'm the only remaining player to actively be pushing Titus. Oftentimes town lose at LYLO simply because the remaining town players don't care enough to put forth the effort required to solve the game. In my experience with 2 active scum, 1 active town, and 2 inactive town remaining, the active scum win because they only need to convince 1 inactive town whereas the active town has to convince 2 inactive town.
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:01 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 499, Wooper wrote:
In post 28, LunarRest wrote:
In post 23, CheekyTeeky wrote:
In post 20, Titus wrote:
In post 18, Phi Kappa Phi wrote:Never had tapioca before. Is it any good?
VOTE: Phi

Gut.
Strong enough gut ping for you to move off the rvs wagon prior to reaction from Tapi. Hmm.
I can see a newbie mafia trying to cover up another mafia that way. But a SE player likely wouldn't be doing that, right?
I am a big fan of this entrance.

He's come in with the "two votes on me" thing without feeling necessarily obliged to act on it or do anything to alter the situation & this as an analytical post feels sincere and doesn't feel overstated.

Often newbie scum feel a pang of anxiety at being lolwagoned at the start of their first game. Often experienced scum playing in a new environment feel compelled to flex and show their stuff and overdisplay their {analytical, manipulative} prowess

This guy is posting pretty fast and doesn't seem all that phased

It's pretty subconscious but I think it's a reasonable confidence anti-survivalism tell
I n t e r e s t i n g
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:03 am

Post by Menalque »

I
think
homura is town but it’s still solidly uncertain. She has equity with LL at the least
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