Newbie 1992 | Game Over

[clidd]

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean.

Nevermind. I just noticed the reason now.

[GeneralWu]

@GeneralWu, I addressed you about this before, but I think you didn't read my post, so I'll try a second time. What do you think about this post about you by Datisi? We had been talking about you a couple of pages back.

I'm not exactly worried about him not having read the game, like if he just popped in, said "lmao you post a lot i'm busy catch yall later" and left i wouldn't really care for it?

but like he got in, said that he hasn't had the chance to read, but then he's making comments about unimportant things like "if i had a mafia partner who wanted to die, i would kill them and claim vigilante" and "on a different website i randed scum more than town" which like

why?

like i get it could be a personality trait or wtv but it just seems like something more likely to come from scum wanting to appear more active and engaged than they actually are

@Marashu, I know you said you ought to work, but please address this when you have time.

Dat's explosion aside, I find skitt's interaction around this post interesting. Skitt asks whether or not to apply pressure, then asks if Dat needs a chance to towntell, then puts on pressure while Dat is exploding, then unvotes to remove pressure.

ok, and what do you take away from this?
does it affect ur read on me?

i'm not trying to appear more active or anything
since I wouldn't consider those posts as actual contribution.
I just posted those because I didn't have time to read the game and I wasn't going to get anything done in a short amount of time anyways, so I just made a few random posts.

[clidd]

I will analyze Marashu and then establish my PoE.

[GeneralWu]

About GeneralWu, I said I had a TL on him, but I'm starting to think he's more of a null slot, because he has been making sort of anchor posts saying he'll read later at least twice, ignored posts addressed at him, but still took the time to reply at comments about Marashu that were on the same page, so I wonder. He's posting a bit too much for someone that has to catch up still, yet he does it in small bursts and then disappears again. This is not his meta from last game entirely, because he poured effort into deceiving us last time, and now he's acting blatant enough to even directly ask for summaries. I thought that was scummy, but then I read Marashu say that maybe it's so blatantly scummy that it can only come from town, and I feel a bit wifom about it. What do you think about GWu?

I'm playing differently because this is a different game and this is a different situation
I don't purposely try to match or not match meta

[Datisi]

you caught up?

[GeneralWu]

With that said, I have doubts about GeneralWu, Marashu, Menalque and Skitter.

Interestingly, I believe that there are 2

scums

among these players,

considering

that Datisi is not mimicking his behavior in our last game in common.

Menalque talks a lot, so I have a hard time thinking he's scum. He'd slip once or twice with the amount of message and message speed he has. If he is scum, I'd be impressed. There's lack of premeditation in his behavior, is what I'm seeing. I would like to know what you think about Skitter, because so far I don't know how to read her. Are your doubts about Marashu the same as everyone else's? (That he took the mason claim seriously).

About GeneralWu, I said I had a TL on him, but I'm starting to think he's more of a null slot, because he has been making sort of anchor posts saying he'll read later at least twice, ignored posts addressed at him, but still took the time to reply at comments about Marashu that were on the same page, so I wonder. He's posting a bit too much for someone that has to catch up still, yet he does it in small bursts and then disappears again. This is not his meta from last game entirely, because he poured effort into deceiving us last time, and now he's acting blatant enough to even directly ask for summaries. I thought that was scummy, but then I read Marashu say that maybe it's so blatantly scummy that it can only come from town, and I feel a bit wifom about it. What do you think about GWu?

Menalque and Skitter have one thing in common: they have no linguistic vices. That is, their typing pattern is not something that you associate from one game to the other, as with some players who tend to type certain terms and act in a certain way according to the alignment, which makes it difficult to distinguish whether they are in their meta scum or not. In this context, the only way to measure a read on them is through content analysis, which is also hampered by the objective and dividing way in which they organize their posts, making it difficult to identify explicit scumtells. Given these circumstances, I believe that evaluating their slot by PoE significantly reduced this difficulty, since the mathematical factor is more accurate in that sense.

Generalwu is acting in a very strange way, different from the other game. What I believe is a contradiction to her meta scum, because if she is able to articulate more freely as a scum, she must also be able to loosen up more as town, because she has, in theory, nothing to hide. In particular, she's in the unsure pool now because of some interactions with me, which did not seem to be genuine questions. She can be better evaluated as the day progresses.

wait is the relationship between alignment and typing style actually a thing
because I have never noticed anything like that before and I don't know anyone who types differently based on alignment.

also I highly do not recommend using meta to read me because my meta varies significantly from game to game and it doesn't depend on alignment
and I don't intentionally try to copy my meta from another game.
even if I get the exact same role in two games I can still play very very differently.
if you want I can show you guys a few of my other games so you can see

[GeneralWu]

also I remember having a slight scumread on datisi but I forgot why oops
I think it was one of the posts about me so let me go back and see which one it was (if there was any post at all)

[clidd]

With that said, I have doubts about GeneralWu, Marashu, Menalque and Skitter.

Interestingly, I believe that there are 2

scums

among these players,

considering

that Datisi is not mimicking his behavior in our last game in common.

Menalque talks a lot, so I have a hard time thinking he's scum. He'd slip once or twice with the amount of message and message speed he has. If he is scum, I'd be impressed. There's lack of premeditation in his behavior, is what I'm seeing. I would like to know what you think about Skitter, because so far I don't know how to read her. Are your doubts about Marashu the same as everyone else's? (That he took the mason claim seriously).

About GeneralWu, I said I had a TL on him, but I'm starting to think he's more of a null slot, because he has been making sort of anchor posts saying he'll read later at least twice, ignored posts addressed at him, but still took the time to reply at comments about Marashu that were on the same page, so I wonder. He's posting a bit too much for someone that has to catch up still, yet he does it in small bursts and then disappears again. This is not his meta from last game entirely, because he poured effort into deceiving us last time, and now he's acting blatant enough to even directly ask for summaries. I thought that was scummy, but then I read Marashu say that maybe it's so blatantly scummy that it can only come from town, and I feel a bit wifom about it. What do you think about GWu?

Menalque and Skitter have one thing in common: they have no linguistic vices. That is, their typing pattern is not something that you associate from one game to the other, as with some players who tend to type certain terms and act in a certain way according to the alignment, which makes it difficult to distinguish whether they are in their meta scum or not. In this context, the only way to measure a read on them is through content analysis, which is also hampered by the objective and dividing way in which they organize their posts, making it difficult to identify explicit scumtells. Given these circumstances, I believe that evaluating their slot by PoE significantly reduced this difficulty, since the mathematical factor is more accurate in that sense.

Generalwu is acting in a very strange way, different from the other game. What I believe is a contradiction to her meta scum, because if she is able to articulate more freely as a scum, she must also be able to loosen up more as town, because she has, in theory, nothing to hide. In particular, she's in the unsure pool now because of some interactions with me, which did not seem to be genuine questions. She can be better evaluated as the day progresses.

wait is the relationship between alignment and typing style actually a thing
because I have never noticed anything like that before and I don't know anyone who types differently based on alignment.

also I highly do not recommend using meta to read me because my meta varies significantly from game to game and it doesn't depend on alignment
and I don't intentionally try to copy my meta from another game.
even if I get the exact same role in two games I can still play very very differently.
if you want I can show you guys a few of my other games so you can see

Absolutely, there is. But they are very tricky details if you don't filter them correctly. I have a practical example here: (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81962)

I used this knowledge to profile the players I was analyzing in the match, until I completed my PoE in post 154, page 7, where I correctly deduced who the three scums were and managed to contribute to a victory without misslynchs.



Of course, this does not apply in all cases. I have records of failures too, nobody is invincible. Which is why I want to discuss my PoE when I finish my current analysis.

[clidd]

I will analyze Marashu and then establish my PoE.

This will probably take time as I am doing other activities in parallel, as well as depending on my mood.

[clidd]

I feel like I will regret considering TRQ town eventually.

[clidd]

Hum.

[clidd]

Or maybe she'll show potential later, just like Maduisha did in the past game.

[clidd]

[GeneralWu]

He's done p much nothing, that's the thing. The only pop in was a vague comment about *what* has happened that wasn't game-advancing at all.

ok so I didn't really like the fact that datisi was quickly pushing marashu, but I can see why it makes sense now.
I get a feeling that marashu could indeed be mafia just sitting there and lurking the whole game.
However, that's only if he keeps doing this for an extended period of time.
I know that different people have different amounts of time to play this game, but if marashu is clearly purposely not doing anything, then that could be considered scummy.

Even though what datisi said did indeed make sense, I don't really like how he pushed this quickly.

datisi and marashu are probably not w/w.

[word321]

overall, i have found skitters behavior pretty consistant. i may go against my previous word here (no pun intended).
first, i must say this come from ISO. it doesnt rly address the conttext of the messages. it also doesnt address what is NOT said by skitter. keep that in mind.

skitters probably first meaningful interaction was at the beginning of the game. every lean at page 1-3 is obviously early, but read gw as town early on, along with dat. the reason was, it seems, her town mentality. the only 2 mesningful posts from gw were 32 and 39. i kinda guess gw was consistent with why he liked the idea of moving on with the game (bc he didnt like meta diving), and i guess skitter could have assumed that as town indicative.
dats tl is explicited in 54.

a small commentary on 62. here she said to "dnt tr her for this" to gw (for wanting to move the game). i particularly dnt rly trust the "dnt trust on me". it makes no sense as town; its only value lies in "hey, think a little bit more before you make an assumption and consider every possibility". it has relatively more value as a scum, bc it can be used as a tool to gain trust.
she used it again on 311, albeit with a different connotation here. on the previous post, it was said to someone she was tonleaning; in this post, it was said against someone she was casting doubts upon. in this case, it makes more sense to correlate that to a avaibility of information, connection that was never made. this may be me biased against a certain technique and how i think myself, of course.
still in 62 she announced she would play passive. again, passive tends to favor scum play, EXACTLY why she is being doubted rn (for being hard to read).

on 85 she tr gw. on 119, she said marashu and trq probably arent scum together, bc they would be shoting at their own feets.

now, on 162 she begins casting doubt on dat. this is concreted on a vote in 176. now, this is completely consistent of what she said on 48, that she likes to put some pressure with a 2nd vote on newbie games.
in 303, she doubted dat bc he was sowing doubt on men about clidd.

by 284 gw was still one of the most tr with mad, clidd and men too, but she did cast doubt on marashu, trq and dat.

by 503, she affirms its unlikely trq is scum with marashu or dat, but doesnt tr trq nor dat.

she reaffirms her faith on mad on 512, and votes marashu on 493.

overall, as ive said, its a consistent game: both trs and srs are pretty consistent. i belive that doesnt imply she is town at all; to cas doubt on the inconsistent or too pushy or inactive players is standard, to trust transparent or cohesive players is too (under her own standards). if we follow the scum hypothesis, marashu would indeed be an easy guy to lynch, suported too by his inactivity. i guess this rules out them both as scums. another interesting thing is she tr gw, but gw tr marashu. that may be also indicative they arent both scum, but is not definitive. clidd has doubted skitter, skitter has doubted trq.
there is an overall plausability in skitter being scum; of course, its not definitive.

clidd implying word is towny because his tone is similar to a game of clidd's in which clidd was town (and died night one) is odd and word saying "will read" without further comment after previously saying clidd's evaluation of maduisha was emotionally manipulative is also odd. is word supposed to read that game and think, "hm, clidd in that game also reminds me of me and clidd was town there so i am town?" see the problem

i still highly suspect clidd, that hasnt changed at all. but i have arrived at some conclusions. clidd has a high mortality ratio and a high success ratio. that means he may not live for long; him surviving to day 3 would be weird, without a scum lynch in the previous days in a lylo situation for example. so until dead, the information we can get is very benefitial, town or scum. confirmed town hypothesis are always in good faith.

[word321]

overall, i havent been able to townread or scumread men, but i havent tried that much. i will in the future.
i dont townread datsi. similar to the others, i think it is a matter of tone. that doesnt mean i scumread him.
mad is an interesting case. almost no one has cast doubt on her, except perhaps men (i may have missed some others). that would make her the single most dangerous player as scum. but alas, i also townread her bc of her being so transparent (wich is probably the same reason everyone else tr her). so if she is scum, she is playing a marvelous game.
i dont share the same train of thaught with trq. that makes me see her more of a chaotic element, since i dnt rly understand her. the way i see it she may as well be town or scum.
as for gw, i also havent rly seen her posts from her point of view. but from what ive read, i would say i see her more of a tl than a sl, but that would be just gut feelings.

[word321]

of course, i want to research each individual, but i only have so much time. ill try to before the night.

in the previous message i have a typo; gw is a him, not a her. i apologize for that.

[word321]

i dnt have some things clear . clidd, why do u tr dat and me? gw, how do u read skitter? and men, how do u read skitter, gw and trq?

[Maduisha]

also I remember having a slight scumread on datisi but I forgot why oops
I think it was one of the posts about me so let me go back and see which one it was (if there was any post at all)

Uh, this post pings me as strange, because I think it's more logical to search your own ISO and quote where the read is, instead of stating you've scumread someone for reasons you don't remember anymore... it feels a bit like you're trying to push the general idea of yourself contributing with scum reads as a thing that has already happened. But I might be tunneling here, it's such an easily verifiable thing that I wonder if it's scummy or not to say this.

He's done p much nothing, that's the thing. The only pop in was a vague comment about *what* has happened that wasn't game-advancing at all.

ok so I didn't really like the fact that datisi was quickly pushing marashu, but I can see why it makes sense now.
I get a feeling that marashu could indeed be mafia just sitting there and lurking the whole game.
However, that's only if he keeps doing this for an extended period of time.
I know that different people have different amounts of time to play this game, but if marashu is clearly purposely not doing anything, then that could be considered scummy.

Even though what datisi said did indeed make sense, I don't really like how he pushed this quickly.

datisi and marashu are probably not w/w.

Okay, so you found Datisi's push of Marashu to be scummy. But if you read the thread, you'll see that there's nothing "quick" about it. People have been suspecting Marashu almost since the first time he posted.

Spoiler:

My vote's already there. I'm not only talking about Datisi calling him scummy, but I'll leave you here the posts in which he's seeing Marashu as scummy, prior to the moment you came to argue with him:

Yes, it sounds sketch as all shit that I'm saying that when my vote was at the time largely RVS and after both you and skitt have expressed willingness to vote there recently
but fuck

can you explain why Maru is your top pick for scum?

most of it has already been said
the way they kept talking about the mason claim while kind of not really offering anything conclusive about it
also the fact that they've kinda ~disappeared~ but the game is still early i guess

also my "RVS" vote was aimed at them and it was pretty obviously hypocritical
and they didn't really mention it at all later on
and i kinda felt like town is more likely to mention it as opposed to scum being more likely to ignore it

one thing i was interested in hearing about *didn't* get mentioned but the whole thing gets kinda ruined if i explicitly prod about it so

what's the benefit of saying this? to make us think, "hm, i wonder what it is, let me reread the thread looking for exactly this. oh i think i found something, but i better not draw attention to it." because that does not seem very towny to me.

(it was the RVS vote thing explained above)
and i really don't think i have a concrete reply to this
i mentioned it because it was on my mind and i was also curious to other's reactions to my comment as well
do you think mentioning that makes me outright scummy or?

I thought you thought that mara had good odds of being scum?

independetly of everything else? yes

but i'm realistic enough to know that just because i think someone is scum doesn't mean they are
plus i'm getting the same gut feeling that just chain lynching the "scummy" slots won't do us any good here
it feels ~wrong~

datisi immediately saying i die for it still feels off to me.

Nah
My thoughts were
Either you're scum doing an extremely shitty push or you're Town who we can't trust to make any sort ot objective decision in the later, more important days if THAT case is something you believe in
So it's a win win

This was partly influenced by emotion but I'm not sure if I've walked away from that completely rn

Because the last post by Marashu, which had words but didn't say anything really doesn't make me feel better about them

But I'm still torn between voting for either of you
So

maybe i'm again trying to be big brain 9000 IQ sniping deepwolves

maybe should stop for a bit

VOTE: marashu

My point is, this is not a sudden thing that has happened, but a read shared by many for almost as long as the game has been running.

Aside from that, the fact that you've ignored Datisi's question about having caught up, and Marashu's question directed at you, I imagine that you still haven't had time to do a full read because of real world constraints. Real world obligations come first and I can't expect you to prioritize the game to them. However, this is not the first, or the second time you post to answer only the latest messages without addressing anything else and go away. You've already addressed this concern of mine, yet keep doing the same thing, so I wonder if it's towny on your part that didn't start avoiding that behavior right away, or scummy that it keeps happening. I really don't know what to think.

I still consider your slot to be a null one, because it's perfectly possible that you're just having real life constraints. However, I want to escalate the FoS I had on you into a vote, because I think the potential scumminess of this behavior should not be overlooked. I didn't vote you before, because I was waiting for you to come back on Saturday as promised. I feel you could use some pressure to catch up and put your thoughts together.

VOTE: GeneralWu

[Maduisha]

Word, thank you for your extensive read on Skitt. I agree with the consistency of her mindset, as in that she hasn't been swayed to change her reads and stayed true to her thought process, but it's true that I don't know exactly how to read her. She'll come to interact with us soon because she was on V/LA recently and she probably wants to update her reads as of now, so I look forward to hearing more of her input so I can have a more accue read of her slot.

i still highly suspect clidd, that hasnt changed at all. but i have arrived at some conclusions. clidd has a high mortality ratio and a high success ratio. that means he may not live for long; him surviving to day 3 would be weird, without a scum lynch in the previous days in a lylo situation for example. so until dead, the information we can get is very benefitial, town or scum. confirmed town hypothesis are always in good faith.

As for Clidd being suspicious if left alive as the nights pass because of his usual high mortality ratio, I think it's a double edged sword to point out such a thing. While it may very well indicate he's scummy, this can also be used as a weapon by mafia to give us a misdirection by leaving him alive on purpose.

[Maduisha]

Hum, speaking of V/LA and absence, Menalque has been gone for longer than Skitt. Hopefully he comes back soon.

[Menalque]

I’m around, I’m just not always posting. I sometimes like to take a step back and read how other people are interacting without me especially when I’ve been quite involved in the way the game is proceeding

[Datisi]

Mhm?

[Menalque]

I’m just reading basically

I’ll be back in to steer things again soon, I’m trying to check I’m not confbiasing

[Datisi]

Yeah me too, that's why I was hoping to hear your thoughts. But aight.