Newbie 1992 | Game Over

[Menalque]

It’s essentially just additional effort for little/no gain and I’m lazy

[Datisi]

Also I know this is wine but like I’m aware that telling people I think they should townread me more and not be paranoid tends to make them moreso? And so it’s a pretty weird play for scum!me to undermine people’s feelings in me!town just to make the argument I’m making here

please stop talking lmao

[skitter30]

i'm really not confident on town!datisi rn

and beause i feel like you pointed out something i could be paranoid about that i was very diligently trying to avoid

[clidd]

This slot gave me a certain degree of uncertainty, especially due to the time jumps between posts. I was trying to imagine what scenarios would explain his attitude during the game, but I didn't have as good a conclusion as I expected from myself. So I redid the analysis in a simple, less complex and more intuitive way. However, I found myself completely changing some things for the third time, as I was still not satisfied:

Posts

10

,

24

,

30

~ Marashu.

Spoiler:

Here and ready to go!

skitter was innocent child in that game and mason is the only day 1 confirmed town in this setup and i didn't want maduisha to get bored enough to yolohammer someone slightly later on like in 1987 so i figured i'd say something that might get the game moving a bit.

Any reason you want to get the game moving (without me needing to read up on other games to try to figure out your play)? We still have 4 people who haven't posted and you're already moving us out of the joke votes.

Don't really care for how we're still on page 1 and there are 3 separate games that have been referred to (thanks Dat because I had no clue what I was looking at in TRQ's link).

Fast posted by Dat, TRQ

TRQ, was Mad town or scum in 1987?

FP'd by Dat

do you see this as a bad thing? why/why not?

Not a fan of it, to be honest. Like, having basically a confirmed townie is a good thing, but I would rather see how everyone reacts, and this way half the players (and probably some if not all of the mafia) will be able to jump in with that info already present. It tells us who not to vote for, but doesn't help us find mafia.

But then, I'm not really a fan of D1 mason flip anyway, so it might just be a personal thing.

clidd and mad: How many games have you been in (here or otherwise?)

FP'd by GeneralWu

generalWu, same question: How many games?

- The first three posts seem to be introductory, with a large temporal distance from his next post (108) which indicates partial loss of interest on the day's initial events during that time window. His interactions are directed in multiple directions, acting similarly to TRQ in the precarious focus and the difficulty in the consistent development of reads.

[Suggestive]

Posts

108

,

110

~ Marashu.

Spoiler:

That's not what I meant to ask, sorry. Do you think moving out of the joke votes this early is a bad thing?

Ah, no. Sooner we get out of joke votes, the better.

But then, I'm not really a fan of D1 mason flip anyway, so it might just be a personal thing.

What do you mean by this?

I mean that I don't like D1 mason roleclaim. Maybe because I've only seen it revealed later in the past, but I feel like you can get more out of it by revealing it later.

Skitter: I don't think TRQ was joking because of :

skitter was innocent child in that game and mason is the only day 1 confirmed town in this setup and i didn't want maduisha to get bored enough to yolohammer someone slightly later on like in 1987 so i figured i'd say something that might get the game moving a bit.

I don't know if TRQ is telling the truth, but I do think that TRQ is serious. I don't know why any other townie would claim that, and it's stupid (but welcome) for mafia to claim that. Only the other mason (and probably the mafia) would know for sure if TRQ is telling the truth, and roughly as many people would know if TRQ is lying.

Based on the way this game is going, I'm pretty sure most people here aren't completely new to mafia.
So everyone here's had some sort of prior experience with mafia, right?

It's been years since I've played, so I am definitely feeling rusty with scumhunting and trying to read into posts. That said, I'm not sure how I feel about clidd's take on GeneralWu. It kinda felt like "This person was questioning me but then re-read what I wrote and agrees with my point so must be town."

i rescind.

And now I'm confused.

- He mentions a post directly linked to him, but then skips to post 95, ignoring the existence of posts in the range of 35 ~ 94 (59 posts). I was unable to identify the criteria used by him to discriminate the posts he would comment on. The content of his questions does not receive any basis for further development, that is, they seem to be opinions thrown in the wind.

[Suggestive]

Posts

251

,

257

~ Marashu.

Spoiler:

To clarify, I see that you are considering the processes of interpretation, evaluation, and revision on Wu, but fail to see why that makes for town mentality in this context. Wu misread, realized he misread, and corrected his stance to agree with yours. I feel like throwing in the the time stamp analysis is more meant to look like your argument has weight rather than actually adding weight to it.

@Mena why is Mad one of your top town picks?

@Mad who is your top town read and top scum read?

@Dat Of course I wasn't going to bring up the RVS since from my point of view serious discussion had already started. There was no point. I'm glad that conversation got moving because of my mistake, but I'm not about to start digging up joke votes when I'm actually trying to keep conversation going.

PS - My timezone is EDT (I'm in Canada). I'm working from home and am being responsible and not posting during work hours, so you can expect me to review the thread and give my thoughts in the evening my time. Maybe also early in the morning if I don't sleep in.

@clidd the comment about my hours was to Dat who was accusing me of being absent

- Another big time jump occurs, now exceeding 100 posts. The concern with being objective in the questions, with the justification of absence due to work suggests a profile of someone really busy and is, as much as possible, trying to participate in the game. Due to the content of his questions and the observation about my post, there was an interest in reading those events.

[Town Indicative]

Posts

302

,

450

~ Marashu.

Spoiler:

(work time - I can give more details later)

i think i'm going to ignore pressure as best as i can

Dat's explosion aside, I find skitt's interaction around this post interesting. Skitt asks whether or not to apply pressure, then asks if Dat needs a chance to towntell, then puts on pressure while Dat is exploding, then unvotes to remove pressure.

@clidd: last I saw you had a townlean on Wu. Why are you suddenly cautious about him specifically?

@trq: why is your entire case on dat is based on joke votes and other games? Especially after you pushed to move away from joke votes. Has anything else from this game stood out?

- Even with the previous justification, which I also found to be possibly genuine, there is no sense in the observation made on the first line without an accompanied conclusion. The other two questions seem to be an attempt to redirect attention to other players, although it indicate that he was aware of the game's eventualities even though he was idle most of the time.

[Scum Indicative]

Posts 618, 620, 747 ~ Marashu.

Spoiler:

At the time I posted that, my take-away from that was that you wanted to put some pressure but not so much that, if Dat is town and you are scum, you would be able to say that you weren't pushing that hard. But now that I've re-read it, I can kinda see that you might have just been easing off so you aren't tunneling. I don't want to TL you yet (there is something I noticed that I want to see if it continues), but I'm not reading you as scummy as I was when I posted that.

I keep asking questions of clidd because I'm worried that there's not enough suspicion or discussion about him. He obviously is putting together his thoughts pretty carefully (which isn't necessarily a scumtell, but makes it hard to spot a scumtell). I'm worried that he might be using previous game experience to pocket Mad (595 specifically). I don't see Wu's line of reasoning as being a "weird degree of paranoia" - Wu was even defending you in 204 and I don't think you would miss that.

Right now I am town reading Mad and Wu. I feel like Wu is making plays that are in line with someone who doesn't know the answers but is trying to reason them out. If clidd is mafia then I'm pretty sure that Wu is not (if you two are and that's why Wu was defending clidd and why clidd it townleaning while maintaining a bit of distance, well played). As for Mad, I like the way she is following up with things going on to make sure they don't slip by.

I was town reading TRQ at first, but I'm starting to have doubts. I feel like TRQ might be tunneling Dat.

Do you think I was trying to fish out PRs? One or two players, and probably the mafia, would know for sure if you are lying. I now see that it was a meme post, but I meant what I said at the time. Not having read the full game you posted and only having read the first post, I thought it was some sort of weird new meta, hence why I said I didn't like it. Anyway, I made a mistake, it made me look scummy, but if my mistake got the game moving, I'm ok with getting my hands dirty (though I'd prefer if we could use that to lynch mafia tonight)

I feel like Wu is making plays that are in line with someone who doesn't know the answers but is trying to reason them out. If clidd is mafia then I'm pretty sure that Wu is not (if you two are and that's why Wu was defending clidd and why clidd it townleaning while maintaining a bit of distance, well played).

Can you elaborate on Wu TR? Is he the only person who seems like that? Also why scum!clidd -> town!Wu?

I don't know what you mean by "Is he the only person who seems like that?" but here's an answer to the rest and maybe that will answer it?

I see scum!clidd -> town!Wu? because their interaction feels more like mafia trying to pocket town than two mafia trying to protect each other. It's possible that both are town, but I don't think both are scum. Wu's questioning of clidd in specific felt pretty natural.

As for the TR on Wu:
-I feel like Wu is a cautious townie more than a mafia. Dat, I know you read 282 as Wu potentially being mafia, but I see it as trying to look for reasons why a play style might be different so they don't get distracted by it. I don't have a meta read on anyone so it's tough, but I think that if they noticed your play style was different then, they would probably be using a difference in play to their advantage.
-Wu does not appear to be pushing an agenda, and I feel like someone with that many games would probably be trying something by this point.
-Wu's views on some reads were similar to my own at the time of posting. For example, the early town read on TRQ.
-This post: 457. I don't think mafia would so blatantly ask for a summary.

Actually, @Wu you've been saying a lot about town reads but who are your scum reads?

I'll post my reasoning this afternoon, but for now VOTE: skitter30. The short of it is, I noticed a trend in some of her posts but I don't have time right now to break it down.

- Why ?



- All the progression built in posts 618 and 620 are simply discarded with the absurd leap from post 620 to 747. There is no hesitation in changing the approach, especially for Skitter, who had been the player who performed the unvote to avoid the early hammer . So, assuming the

Scum!Marashu

scenario, what would he gain by pushing Skitter ? wouldn't it be easier to push one of the players who would be encouraging his lynch, like Menalque, instead of the player who was trying to postpone it ? very, very risky.

[Suggestive]

Post

886

~ Marashu

Spoiler:

I'm also looking forward to marashu's skitter case.

First, skitt seems to be posting a lot of unneccessary "I don't knows" (or other variants). Some of them make sense (like when she is saying she doesn't know what someone else is trying to say and is asking for clarification), but even ignoring some of the posts as we were coming out of RVS, there are still quite a few of these already (examples in spoiler tag):

A lot of these were about Dat, which to me is indicative of wanting to have enough reason to vote for Dat but display enough uncertainty if Dat flips town (which from what I'm seeing is probably what would happen).

Second,

like i feel like you're being rather elliptical and non-commital

I think this is exactly what skitt is doing, so it's interesting that she's calling TRQ out on it. I think her claim to be sitting back in this one could be a sign that she's willing to jump in where people make cases but be ready to back out so it doesn't look bad or gain town cred by appearing moderate and wanting to force out more discussion. As for her case on Dat, that brings us to my third point.

Third,
Skitt's the one who started the train on Dat. The initial reason was pretty vague,

because you feel weird and feel like you're just kinda like ~around~ and trying to seem active without actually doing anything, if that makes sense

As she stayed on the train she was pretty non-commital. To me it looked like Mena was applying the pressure while she was staying at arm's distance.

Fourth, like I addressed before (and kinda related to the above) was the way that skitt was interacting with Dat when the Dat push was happening. At the time I thought it was suspicious, but then I started to doubt myself. Now I'm feeling like I should trust my instincts - I think it's less likely that she was trying to keep from tunneling and more likely that she was trying to gain some early towncred.

- The initial part seems to come from lucid reasoning, which I can understand. However, as he goes on with his reasons for suspecting Skitter, I feel that many points end up being pushed to the limit, reaching interpretive distortion to agree arguably with the motivation for the FoS. In other words, facts are compressed to agree with theories, rather than changing theories to agree with the facts.

[Scum Indicative]

Conclusion:

Marashu has a serious problem with the temporal distance between his posts, which exceeded the margin of 100 ~ 140 posts away from each other. There is a particular interest on his part in discriminating which posts will be chosen for evaluation and which will be ignored. The way he formulates his questions and structures his reasoning suggests a prior reading of at least half of the content lost in periods of absence, while other information is ignored / forgotten. The sporadic way in which he changes the instance of 2 in 2 posts indicates a lack of planning on how he will act, which can imply an

inconsequential town

or a

lazy scum

. With the lack of game planning, it is difficult to speculate whether he is acting in bad faith or not, as there is no explicit incriminating evidence to culminate in his lynch. However, I believe that by the lynch policy it is a healthy choice, considering that as the days progress, it is likely that this peculiarity will be used against him and damage the selection among the players. Particularly, I believe that he fits better as

scum

because of the lack of expressive development in his current reads, and the distance between his posts that create the impression of omission of some information, since it is not possible to say if he read and processed one hundred percent content during the absence period. Unlike TRQ, his playstyle does not originate from an interpersonal affinity, but from external influences that cannot be correctly measured to determine a

town

alignment given his current circumstances.

[Town]

-->

[Maduisha, Word, TRQ]

[Pool to lynch]

-->

[GeneralWu, Marashu]

[BoP]

-->

[Skitter, Menalque]

*If scum didn't get lynch in two days in a row, 100% of one of them/both is/are scum*

[AtE]

-->

[Datisi]

*Check his consistency with his town meta*

[Karnage]

Vote Count 1.18

Marashu (3) ~

Menalque, Datisi, Maduisha,

Datisi (2) ~

team rocket queen, GeneralWu,

clidd (1) ~

word321,

skitter30 (1) ~

Marashu,

Not voting (2) ~

clidd, skitter30,

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-03-27 19:08:54)

V/LA:

• skitter30 - Fridays and Saturdays & mental health vla for a couple of days (beginning 3/23)

[Menalque]

i'm really not confident on town!datisi rn

and beause i feel like you pointed out something i could be paranoid about that i was very diligently trying to avoid

Why don’t you feel good on town!dats?

[clidd]

I have a mental vote on Marashu.

[Menalque]

[BoP]--> [Skitter, Menalque] *If scum didn't get lynch in two days in a row, 100% of one of them/both is/are scum*

So no pressure then

[skitter30]

now i am growing paranoid as well why are you doing this

posts like this feel insidious

also clidd is still town

[Menalque]

now i am growing paranoid as well why are you doing this

posts like this feel insidious

also clidd is still town

What does insidious mean again

Also clidd!town why?

[skitter30]

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/insidious
like trying to subtly undermine the status queue
like if we're both town that post is trying to prevent us from coming to a mutual townread

i have a ridiculously hard time seeing clidd's posts coming from scum
the sheer amount of effort and analysis just feels townie to me

[Menalque]

have a ridiculously hard time seeing clidd's posts coming from scum
the sheer amount of effort and analysis just feels townie to me

This is why I kinda think he’s gonna blindside me as scum at some point

Idk I just feel like he’s been less ~here~ than in other games

[GeneralWu]

before I get called out again for "not reading the thread" i'm only replying to this post right now since I just saw it and it looks interesting. I'll post more later.

if someone refuses to hammer once we have 4 votes on and i'm confident it's an all town wagon then I'm going to start calling refusal to declare intent a scumclaim

isn't this the equivalent of saying "if you don't agree with me you're mafia"?

[skitter30]

i'm not going to worry about it for now

pedit this is about clidd ^

[Menalque]

Re: datisi idk I think that sort of thing is exactly what town!her tends to get paranoid about

I agree her tone is a little off overall but idk if it’s off enough to scumread her for and idk if she’s able to avoid effort-telling as scum yet, and I think she’s trying hard enough this game to be v likely town even if I wouldn’t lock it up here like I would in some games

[Menalque]

before I get called out again for "not reading the thread" i'm only replying to this post right now since I just saw it and it looks interesting. I'll post more later.

if someone refuses to hammer once we have 4 votes on and i'm confident it's an all town wagon then I'm going to start calling refusal to declare intent a scumclaim

isn't this the equivalent of saying "if you don't agree with me you're mafia"?

Not exactly but it’s cut from the same cloth

[clidd]

have a ridiculously hard time seeing clidd's posts coming from scum
the sheer amount of effort and analysis just feels townie to me

This is why I kinda think he’s gonna blindside me as scum at some point

Idk I just feel like he’s been less ~here~ than in other games

I have a paranoia about you too. I can't read your typing pattern, which is why I always put you on BoP.

[clidd]

By the way, what do you think about Word, Menalque ?

I'm townreading him based on a past game of mine, where my typing was similar to his.

[Menalque]

I can't read your typing pattern,

What do you mean by this?

[Menalque]

I’m reading word as a light PoE scumread

I think everyone is townier than them apart from (Mara, wu) and I think they’re very out there and doing their own thing. That’s probably +town for them, but I don’t really like the stances they’ve had

[clidd]

I can't read your typing pattern,

What do you mean by this?

Fluid typing, no wallpost, etc.

[Maduisha]

Hello, Clidd. Thank you for your analysis, as always. I found particularly interesting the point you had about Marashu having a case against Skitter being weird if he's scum, since Skitter has bought him more time. But ultimately I think he's too scummy to be let go of, I'm happy we agree on the SR.

I have a mental vote on Marashu.

I see that you have the intent to vote him, but you're not doing so. Is it because you want to hammer, or because you're not completely confident in the read to vote as of yet?

[clidd]

Hello, Clidd. Thank you for your analysis, as always. I found particularly interesting the point you had about Marashu having a case against Skitter being weird if he's scum, since Skitter has bought him more time. But ultimately I think he's too scummy to be let go of, I'm happy we agree on the SR.

I have a mental vote on Marashu.

I see that you have the intent to vote him, but you're not doing so. Is it because you want to hammer, or because you're not completely confident in the read to vote as of yet?

I'm avoiding lolhammers. There is something I want to see before his lynch.

[skitter30]

Re: datisi idk I think that sort of thing is exactly what town!her tends to get paranoid about

I agree her tone is a little off overall but idk if it’s off enough to scumread her for and idk if she’s able to avoid effort-telling as scum yet, and I think she’s trying hard enough this game to be v likely town even if I wouldn’t lock it up here like I would in some games

yeah but why does he get paranoid about that conversation between the two of us, i'm not sure why it was affecting his read

[skitter30]

VOTE: marashu

this is l-1 ^^^

which means one more vote is hammer
i'm not quite ready for end of day yet, but i do think it's fine to start moving towards there/getting a claim if necessary