Newbie 1992 | Game Over

[Karnage]

Vote Count 2.2

Marashu (2) ~

skitter30, Maduisha,

Datisi (1) ~

Malakittens,

Not voting (4) ~

clidd, Marashu, word321, Datisi,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-04-05 13:00:00)

V/LA:

• skitter30 - Fridays and Saturdays

[word321]

like form my pov y'all made a dumb decision yesterday, which i called out at the time, and pointed out the indicators that y'all were on the wrong track, which got shot down

Point taken. mar does look scum. But we cant overrule other possibilities too. gw would probably be lynched anyways if mar flipped scum.
As far as I can see, we may be doing exactly the same we just did to gw. Everyone more or less gave their approval to the course of action against mar. It is sure convenient now to be able to claim "that was a dumb course of action, lets lynch mar now", the (to that time) second most suspicious player, and most inactive one. If we were to assume a scum actively participated on gws lynch, that would be 2 kills. Dnt misunderstand me; I completely agree that, in retrospective, mar was a better choice, and the most informative at that time.
That dsnt mean u r my most suspected scum, or only one. I agree men may have moved things towards gw. The nail on his coffin was probably due to overpressure too; nobody can force gw to act the way he did, but sure can help to. So, I do suspect somewhat dats for that too.
Now, mason has become a VT with a different name. That means the only possible use for that role is to claim and counterclaim effectively, since mafia knows who every town is. I suggest, instead of going straight to a lynch on mar, to make a list of possible suspects due to the recent events. If there is a mason in those suspects, we can immediatly rule him out of the list with his claim. If mar claims though, we lynch him, for possible fishing for a counterclaim, wich would inutilize the strategy.
I believe we dont rly want to lynch mar today. We may always lynch him tomorrow. Instead, lets search for possible suspects outside that, weighting the possibility of him being town; we can always lynch him tomorrow.

[word321]

By the above, lets NOT search for masons, pls.

[word321]

And welcome to the game, mala!

[word321]

against mar

gw*

[Datisi]

word, my dude, if we fuck up today tomorrow is lylo. and you generally don't want to have scummy low-posting slots like that in lylo. also, what's your point about mara claiming? mara's already claimed VT.

[skitter30]

As far as I can see, we may be doing exactly the same we just did to gw. Everyone more or less gave their approval to the course of action against mar.

It is sure convenient now to be able to claim "that was a dumb course of action, lets lynch mar now",

the (to that time) second most suspicious player, and most inactive one. If we were to assume a scum actively participated on gws lynch, that would be 2 kills. Dnt misunderstand me; I completely agree that, in retrospective, mar was a better choice, and the most informative at that time.

yes, but i didn't just say it today, i also said it yesterday, before the gw lynch happened ...
i was literally the only person saying he was probably town at end of day yesterday
and guess what ... he flipped town
like from my pov the flip just validated me and concretized what i was thinking already
i see no reason to change my mind at this point
i am planning on being stubborn about this

[skitter30]

if the mason has a good crumb indicating that they're trq's mason buddy i wouldn't advocate them to claim today unless they're imminently getting lynched

[word321]

word, my dude, if we fuck up today tomorrow is lylo. and you generally don't want to have scummy low-posting slots like that in lylo. also, what's your point about mara claiming? mara's already claimed VT.

U r completely right about that. It was a meaningless asseveration.

[Datisi]

ok. i don't exactly intend on stopping mara's lynch, because i don't think that slot can live to lylo anyway. but.

if mara!scum, either i completely misread mena, or f3 is gonna be hell.
if mara!town, where's your mind, skit?

mala, s'there gonna be anything other than a naked vote?

[word321]

word, my dude, if we fuck up today tomorrow is lylo.

And tomorrow the proportion of scum will be higher. We dnt rly want to try to do the mason play with that many scum to town. Regardless, if we lynch mar today of tomorrow, its the same. I believe we have better chances of lynching scum today than tomorrow, since the proportion of town to scum is higher, and even higher if mar IS scum. In this case, I do think the order of the lynch matter.

[Datisi]

what "mason play"? what are you even on about?

[skitter30]

if mara!scum, either i completely misread mena, or f3 is gonna be hell.
if mara!town, where's your mind, skit?

if mara!scum i think the last scum is {mena/you}; i'm townreading everyone else to some degree or another

i'm having a hard time seeing a universe where mara is town tbh

but if i'm really wrong than i'd be rethinking clidd, word, and probably you. i'd probably be townreading mena's slot because i think on balance he's townie minus his mara associatives

[Datisi]

so, if mara flips scum i'm a possible partner, but if mara flips town you're also rethinking me?

[skitter30]

i guess so, ya

[Datisi]

any reason why you don't mention madu in in the jump from mara to wu?

[skitter30]

beacuse i independantly townread her (her posts just kinda bleed town)
and i think she only moved over because you two did. i don't think she would have thought to instigate it herself

like i think she only moved because that's where the masses moved, i don't think she was trying to save mara

[Datisi]

ok. i'll be back when things develop a bit further.

[skitter30]

I'm going to assume scum!Marashu and scum!Menalque for the following reflection:

So, like... scum!Menalque has some bad looks his way but nobody is scumreading him hard. His partner is most likely to get the rope D1, although there's a town player acting scummy,

so he decides to push for the lynch of the townie to save his partner. Now his partner is doomed to be lynched D2

and

scum!Menalque has all eyes on him for derailing the lynch.

So, he still loses his partner and also loses credibility. How does this benefit the mafia?

I get that the mafia gets to be whole during the first night, but is it really worth it? I don't know if his slot is scum, but certainly not because of what happened with GWu, I'd say. If Marashu is scum, I'd rule out Malakittens from PoE, even.

this is literally exactly what scum try to do
just like buy time
who knows what will happen upon a townflip; like a gw townflip doesn't at all mean that mara and then mena will be flipped next.
even now you lot are resisting

it's, in some scenarios, much better to try to divert the lynch off of your partner than to just let it be, especially if you don't think you'll get flak for it later on

[clidd]

I've been reading and got to some points about the events that drew my attention.

D1 lynch and N1 murder considerations:

Spoiler:

Night 1

GeneralWu was lynched day 1. They were a

Vanilla Townie

It is now Night 1. Deadline for night actions is (expired on 2020-03-29 13:00:00).

Day 2

team rocket queen was killed night 1. They were a

Town Mason

It is now Day 2.

- When I witnessed his flip, I wondered if I had made a mistake in analyzing his reactions to the accusations, but unfortunately, in most possible speculative scenarios, the chances of me having a townread in his behavioral response to L-1 were remote, so it was inevitable that I would have a fixed scumread in the slot. During the night, I was reflecting on the interactions that occurred during the day to imagine what kind of approach the mafia would take in relation to target selection and I came up with 4 victim possibilities:

1° Skitter / Menalque, 2° Me, 3° Maduisha or 4° TRQ.

From that, I started to outline the probable motivations for the murders to happen:

1°

[Skitter, Menalque]

~ Probable vocal threats if the objective is to prolong the game for lylo, if one/both is/are effectively from the town alignment.

[Reasonable possibility]

2°

[Clidd]

~ Motivation similar to the previous item, but post timing does not seem to be a sign of strong vocal antagonism like the two players mentioned above. Significantly greater paranoia factor in the slot, something that can be used as an incriminating element.

[Weak possibility]

3°

[Maduisha]

~ It is a collective townread by most players, which would show difficulty in eliminating it by lynch.

[Weak possibility]

4°

[TRQ]

~ She started the game suggestively posting her role (14), without success in hiding by means of the comic. She could also have used this text fragment as a basis to support a possible future claim, if necessary.

[Strong possibility]

DEADLINES AND ACTIVITY

• The night phase can be shortened if every living player -- even those with no night actions -- notifies me of their desire for such via PM or PT, and all night actions have been received.

Conclusion:

Mafia was aware that TRQ's claim had been true since the beginning of the day. What happened next, such as reactions, self-confidence and proactivity that TRQ demonstrated only confirmed this feeling. The fact that Karnage made it clear that we could speed up the night made it indirectly evident that the PRs had already ended their actions.

In other words:

the mafia had already selected their target early, suggesting that they were confident in the choice. Considering masons have no action at night, the scenario in which Karnage posts the message above would not be compatible with a doctor or cop in the game, as they would naturally have a longer time if they wanted to change their mind in the selective of who they would investigate/save, so it would be more plausible to speculate that we would be in a comp with masons. The fact that TRQ joked with this role so early indicated that she had access to additional information and was potentially trying to do a gambit, making it obvious that she was, in fact, a mason.

I would like to be able to extend this conclusion and point out the second mason, but I believe there is a chance that the mafia did not reason what I am speculating, so it is better to keep it confidential.

Analyzing the distribution of votes:

Spoiler:

Vote Count 1.27

GeneralWu (5) ~

Menalque, Datisi, Maduisha, clidd,

team rocket queen

,

~LYNCH~

Marashu (3) ~

skitter30, word321,

GeneralWu

,

Not voting (1) ~

Marashu,

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-03-27 19:08:54)

V/LA:

• skitter30 - Fridays and Saturdays

- There is more scope for analysis when the lynch is

scum

, but as the victim in question is

town

, the voting position varies a lot according to each player, which mischaracterizes an alignment association through the votes of those who have died. The only peculiarity that I notice here is the fact that

Marashu

remained without voting, something that I particularly have the habit of doing sometimes, but that in this particular case is different due to the fact that there were very plausible voting options, not only Skitter. Perhaps an unconscious fear of voting for the antagonist wagon caused this retreat, or even a conformity when he noticed that we would end the day without the need for his participation. It is also likely that because he was away from any possible wagon, he had an argument in his favor that he did not participate in the lynch of any town. In any case, considering that he has

26

posts and we are going to number

1294

at the moment, intensified by the lack of a meta on this behavior, it is possible to say that strategically he is a valid lynch under the lynch policy, considering that occasional participation only when necessary it is a characteristic that, if it is not something interpersonal observed in other games being performed by the player (

as town

), is an extremely

scum

criterion to be taken into consideration.

Conclusion:

Mental vote on

Marashu

provisionally.

Exit of Menalque:

Spoiler:

Mod Note

Menalque has requested replacement and may no longer post in the game thread.

- NAI, he was substituted in all his games.

[skitter30]

The fact that Karnage made it clear that we could speed up the night made it indirectly evident that the PRs had already ended their actions.

don't read it into this like this

it could have been he meant to offer fast night but forgot to do it at end of day (i've done this more than once as a mod)
it also could be that some random player (not necessarily a pr) asked for fast night when they saw the lynch and karnage decided at that point he'd offer it for everyone (i'm guessing this is the mostly likely scenario)

i highly doubt he made the option for fast night available just because pr's sent in their actions

[clidd]

You speak of your individual experience as a mod, and I believe there is a good chance that you are correct.

But, considering that we are in a setup with masons, that type of post seemed a very suggestive clue that there were no cops / doctors in this game.

[Datisi]

Conclusion: Mafia was aware that TRQ's claim had been true since the beginning of the day. What happened next, such as reactions, self-confidence and proactivity that TRQ demonstrated only confirmed this feeling.

ok, so if you think the mafia realized trq is mason from the begining, does that tell you any closer on who the mafia *is*?

pedit: as also a mod, you really shouldn't read into that, and it's kinda moot anyway.

[skitter30]

i really think karnage is a good enough mod that he wouldn't have offered fast night just because all the pr's / scum sent in their actions ...
like i would never do that as a mod

[clidd]

It is an atypical observation of mine and I would like to see other opinions on this before making any accusations.

But if it is not really the case, I will not raise that point again. Although it is convenient with the current mason situation.