Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[LuckyLuciano]

Actually, looking at https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Resolution, it seems my question is answered. Going to look back to Phoenix's iso to see if it appears he would jail TSE Night 1.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no, then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock. I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

[LuckyLuciano]

I would also be fine with giving happyorange more time to catch up. Replacing into a 1500 post game is an intense undertaking and I feel he should be given the time to properly parse through the game.

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.03

---

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

LuckyLuciano

(1): Crush

Not Voting

(4): Homura, LuckyLuciano, happyorange, ceejayvinoya

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-04-01 15:00:00).

Mod notes:

happyorange is the new Menalque.

A jailkeeper can prevent a nightkill either by jailing the townie who would die or by jailing the mafioso who performs the kill

Homura is V/LA

We can do an extra day for the replacement. I've updated the timer[/area]

[Crush]

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

I really dislike this post. Crush's vote is on me. There's only 1 mafia left. Homura and CJV have already stated that they are probably going to vote me today. It feels like Crush is putting the cart before the horse and looking forward to how he can best setup the gamestate for LYLO.

Again: I was trying to move the game forward, no one was saying anything except for CJ. Also it is still a relevant question because I do think there's a possibility of you flipping town and someone else being mafia. If I don't ask questions like these the entire day is going to end up like D2, and honestly it was tiring to read. Because I town read you all through D1 and D2 I do think there's a possibility of you being town, you should only dislike this question if you're 100% certain that I'm mafia.

I'm fine with that but if you end up lynching me, you'll be glad I got at least some info out of players D3 that you can use in lylo.

[Crush]

Doubled-up on my statements ^ whoops

[Crush]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no, then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock. I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

Good one, but you forget that mafia have almost perfect information after D1. They know that town has a tracker and that it would be risky for roleblocker to move.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no,

then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock.

I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

Good one, but you forget that mafia have almost perfect information after D1. They know that town has a tracker and that it would be risky for roleblocker to move.

That's the entire point of the bolded part of my post. Anyway, it doesn't really matter because Ploti answered me and the jailkeeper will block the nightkill if used on the person carrying it out. That means that CJN is pretty much locktown, because it makes more sense for the mafia to both roleblock and night kill Phoenix. Not doing so risks the nightkill being blocked, and one player has to move anyway to carry out the kill, so why not have that same person also roleblock?

[Crush]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no,

then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock.

I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

Good one, but you forget that mafia have almost perfect information after D1. They know that town has a tracker and that it would be risky for roleblocker to move.

That's the entire point of the bolded part of my post. Anyway, it doesn't really matter because Ploti answered me and the jailkeeper will block the nightkill if used on the person carrying it out. That means that CJN is pretty much locktown, because it makes more sense for the mafia to both roleblock and night kill Phoenix. Not doing so risks the nightkill being blocked, and one player has to move anyway to carry out the kill, so why not have that same person also roleblock?

Because if the roleblocker moves, mafia loses the roleblocker if he's being tracked instead of goon. TSE moved off Titus' lynch target at L1, they might have suspected that moving off a popular lynch target at L1 could attract tracker and therefore chose to send goon.

[ceejayvinoya]

Because if the roleblocker moves, mafia loses the roleblocker if he's being tracked instead of goon. TSE moved off Titus' lynch target at L1, they might have suspected that moving off a popular lynch target at L1 could attract tracker and therefore chose to send goon.

This is ridiculous reaching and you know it.

[happyorange]

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

[Crush]

Because if the roleblocker moves, mafia loses the roleblocker if he's being tracked instead of goon. TSE moved off Titus' lynch target at L1, they might have suspected that moving off a popular lynch target at L1 could attract tracker and therefore chose to send goon.

This is ridiculous reaching and you know it.

Probably yeah. Also

Homura

Is hammering your partner in this gamestate the more valuable play over guaranteeing lylo?

Welcome HappyOrange!

[Crush]

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

[Crush]

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

Assumption = that because Titus suddenly locked TSE town she tracked TSE (=CJ) N1.

[ceejayvinoya]

I don't think I'm going to have time to read through the whole game before the end of the day, but people should be discussing the way CheekyTeeky forgot LL had been given Lunar's role card and was treating them as separate player slots.

Well spotted

[ceejayvinoya]

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

Titus heavily implied tracking my slot by locking me as town d2. This clears my slot of being the guy who roleblocked the jailkeeper night 1 which means I'm not the roleblocker.

[ceejayvinoya]

Homura

Is hammering your partner in this gamestate the more valuable play over guaranteeing lylo?

Welcome HappyOrange!

Sure it's a guaranteed lylo, but a useless one.

I'm sure you could puzzle out the rest of my reason from that.

I can't see Menalque slot being scum at all.

[happyorange]

Because if the roleblocker moves, mafia loses the roleblocker if he's being tracked instead of goon. TSE moved off Titus' lynch target at L1, they might have suspected that moving off a popular lynch target at L1 could attract tracker and therefore chose to send goon.

This is ridiculous reaching and you know it.

Can you clarify what you mean by this? What do you think is reaching and why?

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

Titus heavily implied tracking my slot by locking me as town d2. This clears my slot of being the guy who roleblocked the jailkeeper night 1 which means I'm not the roleblocker.

I'd appreciate links to the posts where you think she implied that, if you're up for it. I think that's pretty bad reasoning regardless, I've seen villagers flip reads overnight with no mechanical basis for doing so, and even if Titus tracked you and saw you visit no one that isn't a reason for them to clear you. Without night results there is no way to know whether or not the roleblocker targeted anyone or who made the kill. I think you have to assume that Titus knew that CheekyTeeky wasn't the roleblocker in order for that read to make even a little bit of sense, and that isn't knowledge that player had.

[ceejayvinoya]

Because if the roleblocker moves, mafia loses the roleblocker if he's being tracked instead of goon. TSE moved off Titus' lynch target at L1, they might have suspected that moving off a popular lynch target at L1 could attract tracker and therefore chose to send goon.

This is ridiculous reaching and you know it.

Can you clarify what you mean by this? What do you think is reaching and why?

He's implying scum will play badly on purpose to make his argument work.

Do we have outed night actions that I'm not aware of? I don't understand the argument LL is making about CJN being locktown. (I assume locktown is another way of saying they are clear?) There were two wolves who could have made the kill night 1, someone being jailkept makes them less likely to be scum from a mechanical standpoint but it doesn't clear them. But the argument is moot unless Titus tracked Phoenix night 1 and saw them visit someone, because we have no other way to confirm who Phoenix targeted with their night action.

Titus heavily implied tracking my slot by locking me as town d2. This clears my slot of being the guy who roleblocked the jailkeeper night 1 which means I'm not the roleblocker.

I'd appreciate links to the posts where you think she implied that, if you're up for it. I think that's pretty bad reasoning regardless, I've seen villagers flip reads overnight with no mechanical basis for doing so, and even if Titus tracked you and saw you visit no one that isn't a reason for them to clear you.

Here you go orange.

TSE is now a full blown scumread.

Titus scumread my slot a lot on day 1. There are more posts from Titus about this scumread, but you get the idea.

TSE is now a full blown scumread.

You don’t think town!tse is capable of making the aggressively bad “let’s lynch in Phoenix/LL to stop them fighting” push?

I do now. I reread the thread given I was wrong on Cheeky Karnage.

I feel that the TSE slot is

as close as to locktown as it gets

.

Day 2, however, Titus suddenly has this consistent "TSE is town" read, even going so far as to italicize me being as close to locktown as it gets.

Without night results there is no way to know whether or not the roleblocker targeted anyone or who made the kill. I think you have to assume that Titus knew that CheekyTeeky wasn't the roleblocker in order for that read to make even a little bit of sense, and that isn't knowledge that player had.

Titus didn't need to know that cheeky wasn't the roleblocker. Here:

Titus already know Phoenix is the jail keeper.

This means she now knows the setup and knows that the scum pr will be the roleblocker.

Titus then tracks my slot n1 and then knows I visited no one.

This means I didn't roleblock or kill Phoenix n1.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Orange, 797.

[happyorange]

Thanks for the quotes, I went back to look for myself quickly to make sure and found this bit, which is both helpful and baffling at the same time.

First, I didn't like you because you liked me or because of the early aggression. I am bothered by you scumreading both TSE and me. My reexamination over the night phase has TSE at greater than 75% town. Putting us in a dichotomy is bad. Second, you do knowing one of your other scumreads, nom, will capitalize.

Judging by Titus's posts around this one, she actually does strongly townread TSE and isn't having a moment of doubt or inconsistency here. This must mean she thinks that 75% is a strong townread, rather than being the baseline random chance for anyone in the game to be village. Given that, it's possible she also thought that CNJ was mechanically clear based on her night result? Even though there was no way for her to know whether or not CheekyTeeky was the roleblocker, or whether or not she missed the wolf making the kill, or a number of other things. Kind of hard to stomach that someone would make that many assumptions, but it's possible? I guess?

[Crush]

@Orange, 797.

Yeah this one makes it pretty clear.

[LuckyLuciano]

Spoiler:

Thanks for the quotes, I went back to look for myself quickly to make sure and found this bit, which is both helpful and baffling at the same time.

First, I didn't like you because you liked me or because of the early aggression. I am bothered by you scumreading both TSE and me. My reexamination over the night phase has TSE at greater than 75% town. Putting us in a dichotomy is bad. Second, you do knowing one of your other scumreads, nom, will capitalize.

Judging by Titus's posts around this one, she actually does strongly townread TSE and isn't having a moment of doubt or inconsistency here. This must mean she thinks that 75% is a strong townread, rather than being the baseline random chance for anyone in the game to be village. Given that, it's possible she also thought that CNJ was mechanically clear based on her night result? Even though there was no way for her to know whether or not CheekyTeeky was the roleblocker, or whether or not she missed the wolf making the kill, or a number of other things. Kind of hard to stomach that someone would make that many assumptions, but it's possible? I guess?

Everything that concerns you with Titus' confidence is exactly why I read CJN as FN day 2 and Titus as his target. I've been disappointed in myself for not figuring out that Titus was Tracker until she was NK'd, but that just makes me realize that Wooper knew all along there was no FN and at certain points implied that he thought CJN was. I just woke up so I'm going to go make coffee and breakfast, but I'm going to go look back at that part of Wooper's ISO. I'm not really sure what I'll find or what I'm looking for, but he suggested a few players that CJN try to visit as FN, maybe there's something worth looking at. I'll report back when I'm done.

[LuckyLuciano]

So the posts are 1132 and 1217. There's a chance Wooper+CJV were playing for a Mena mislynch into roleblocking Titus + killing Homura or Me night 2 and counterclaiming Titus as town power role at LYLO.

I do not think this is the case, however. I am only putting this out there as something to look at if we mislynch today and I think any attempt to wagon CJV today would be a mistake. Let me remind everyone that CJV put Wooper at L-1 yesterday when Mena was already at L-1 1199.

Official Vote Count 2.12

Lynching

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Menalque

(3):

Wooper

, LuckyLuciano, Crush

Wooper

(3):

Titus

, Menalque, ceejayvinoya

Not Voting

(1): Homura

[/area]

[LuckyLuciano]

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Lucky

(2): Homura, CJV

Homura

(1): Orange

Ph0enix

(1):

Titus

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Orange

(1):

Ph0enix

Not Voting

(3): Lucky, Crush,

Karnage

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Lucky

(2): Homura, CJV

Homura

(2): Orange,

Titus

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Orange

(1):

Ph0enix

Not Voting

(3): Lucky, Crush,

Karnage

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Homura

(2): Orange,

Titus

Lucky

(2): Homura, CJV

Orange

(2):

Ph0enix

,

Karnage

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(2): Lucky, Crush

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Crush

(2):

Ph0enix

,

Wooper

Karnage

(2):

Titus

, CJV

Homura

(1): Orange

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Lucky

(1): Homura

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): Lucky

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(2):

Titus

, CJV

Homura

(1): Orange

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Lucky

(1): Homura

Crush

(1):

Ph0enix

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): Lucky

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(2):

Titus

, CJV

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Titus

(1):

Wooper

LuckyLuciano

(1): Homura

Wooper

(1): Orange

Crush

(1):

Ph0enix

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): LuckyLuciano

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

CJV

(2): LuckyLuciano,

Wooper

Wooper

(2): Orange, CJV

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Crush

(1):

Ph0enix

Karnage

(1):

Titus

LuckyLuciano

(1): Homura

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Wooper

(3): Orange, CJV, Crush

CJV

(2): LuckyLuciano,

Wooper

LuckyLuciano

(2): Homura,

Ph0enix

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1):

Titus

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Wooper

(3):Orange, Crush,

Titus

LuckyLuciano

(2): Homura,

Ph0enix

Ph0enix

(1): LuckyLuciano

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1): CJV

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Wooper

(1): Crush

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1):

Titus

, Orange

LuckyLuciano

(1): P

h0enix

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Ph0enix

(3): LuckyLuciano, Homura, CJV

Wooper

(2): Crush,

Titus

LuckyLuciano

(1):

Ph0enix

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1): Orange

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(4): Orange, CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Wooper

(1): Crush

LuckyLuciano

(1):

Ph0enix

Not Voting

(1): Homura

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(4): CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano,

Ph0enix

Titus

(2):

Karnage

, Orange

Wooper

(1): Crush

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(1): Homura

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(4): CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano,

Ph0enix

Orange

(2):

Wooper

, Crush

Titus

(2):

Karnage

, Orange

Not Voting

(1): Homura

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(5): CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano,

Ph0enix

, Orange

<-- LYNCH

Orange

(2):

Wooper

, Crush

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): Homura