Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[LuckyLuciano]

What makes more sense, scum!Cheeky+scum!Lucky, with Cheeky sheeping me the moment I replaced in and Wooper and I all-inning on day phase 2 after outing one of the TPR day 1 and NKing them night 1, or scum!Cheeky/Wooper taking advantage of town!Lucky playing horribly?

[happyorange]

LL's reasoning on Hamura isn't good, all they said was that she is a wolf because she asked someone whether or not it was town for non to lolhammer despite being okay with the lynch. That barely passes as a read, not seeing what you're finding convincing about that at all. LL didn't even mention Hamura hammering a wolf over a villager when her reads gave her plenty of room to lynch the villager and when it would have put their team in lylo with a very solid chance of winning, or how any of that lines up with Homura being a wolf.

[Crush]

@happyorange, I honestly thought Wooper was townier than Cheeky, but I really would've lynched Cheeky D1 if TSE hadn't moved. After D1 the 1v1 between Wooper and Menal took place and based on the EOD wagon and Cheeky's wagon I reasoned that the probability of Menal being mafia was higher because he had more possible partners. And honestly I was never really convinced by Menal's posts and the more we got into D2 both players just started to annoy me and it didn't really make me want to evaluate the game.

[Crush]

LL's reasoning on Hamura isn't good, all they said was that she is a wolf because she asked someone whether or not it was town for non to lolhammer despite being okay with the lynch. That barely passes as a read, not seeing what you're finding convincing about that at all. LL didn't even mention Hamura hammering a wolf over a villager when her reads gave her plenty of room to lynch the villager and when it would have put their team in lylo with a very solid chance of winning, or how any of that lines up with Homura being a wolf.

His reasoning to talk me out of TR Homura does make sense tho, I also told CJ I don't see a strong connection between Wooper(slots) and Homura.

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.06

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Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Homura

(2): LuckyLuciano, ceejayvinoya

LuckyLuciano

(2): Crush, happyorange

Not Voting

(1): Homura

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-04-01 15:00:00).

Mod notes:

Homura is V/LA[/area]

[LuckyLuciano]

@Crush, if you think that I'm onto something, unvote me so that Homura can't hammer and look more into it. It's worth giving yourself time to read Homura again, even if you decide you'd rather lynch me today. Tbh, if I wasn't me and I didn't know I was town, I'd be voting me today too. But I have the unique advantage among townies in that I know that I'm green, so I'm more able to see other players as red. I haven't even given that strong of a case against Homura because I'm afraid of being wrong again and am embarassed with how badly I've thrown this game, but if both you and CJV see reasons to consider what I'm saying about Homura, there's a good chance I'm onto something.

[Crush]

I mean if Homura slides in now and lynches you without saying anything it's kind of obvious anyway

[LuckyLuciano]

I mean, if I'm mafia here there's no reason for me to argue CJV is town when Orange came into the game doubting it. What part of Orange's posts prior to him scumreading me make me think, "Man, you know how I win the game here? I give good reasons for people to believe Crush is town and then I tunnel the player that hammered scum yesterday." The only way I'm scum the way I've played today is if I'm intentionally trying to look TBTBAW, because every move I've made today hurts my chances of winning if I'm scum.

[LuckyLuciano]

He's not going to slide in and random lynch. He's going to contemplate for an hour or two and then lynch me. If there's a chance he's scum, and you know that you are town, wouldn't you rather take away his ability to decide the lynch today and seize it for yourself? He's never voting himself, and there's no time to wagon anyone else, so he always has to vote me whether he's town or mafia. If you know you are green, you should take your time to be the deciding vote.

[Crush]

Meh because Homura isn't here it's really hard for me to evaluate

[LuckyLuciano]

Are you going to be around when the deadline comes to an end? If you're going to have to leave soon and won't be back to re-vote, it makes a lot more sense to leave your vote. I think I'd rather by lynched than have a no lynch. If we no lynch then we have to no lynch again tomorrow and mafia gets to pick both deaths going into LYLO instead of just one.

[Crush]

Yeah I'll be around a bit longer, will definitely lynch today.

[LuckyLuciano]

Cool, I'll be around throughout the rest of the day as well. I just messaged Ploti a question. If he says yes I might be able to suggest you do something that will help you see me as town. Do you mind unvoting for a little while so I can get a response from Ploti?

[Crush]

@Orange, it would help me a lot if you could come around even just a little bit on my slot today. I think that I might have placed too much emphasis on votes D1, but you are completely ignoring them. The only one I voted on is confirmed mafia, and I'm aligned with Wooper on the other two votes. How likely is it that the only L1 vote of any of the two mafia is on his partner?

UNVOTE:

[LuckyLuciano]

@Crush, Ploti responded and asked that I don't make the suggestion I wanted to, so that avenue is a dead end.

[LuckyLuciano]

Looking back at Wooper's last posts atm. Mena interpreted Wooper's push for a Crush CW as a last-minute distancing attempt. I disagree. Wooper had enough heat that I think he was operating under the assumption that he was dead, especially after I suggested that I might hammer him, and was looking to create false associations with Crush. They were on the same wagon, so it makes it easier to say Wooper + Crush scum, just like people want to use me voting alongside Wooper as reason for Wooper + Lucky scum, but the EoD distancing is way too obvious and to take it on face value I think is to underestimate Wooper. I truly believe he told Homura to hammer him for town cred and their path to victory would be to lynch me + Crush.

[LuckyLuciano]

1.5 hours. Crush, you still around? Have you thought any more about Homura or looked at Cheeky + Phi, Cheeky + Homura, and Wooper + Homura?

[Homura]

As a preliminary: I wish I could give this the attention it deserves right now, but not only am I swamped with schoolwork, I'm also undergoing a bit of a personal crisis. The site is also being horrendously slow for me for some reason, so quoting will be difficult for me as well.

Crush, ceejay, I just want you two, please, to consider whether Luciano's play here is town who managed to somehow out a PR, push two town, and locktown a scum; or scum who forced the gamestate and is pushing for my mislynch as a last-ditch effort to win the game. The fact that he's "entertaining the possibilities" should read as a red flag to you, especially when it isn't remotely likely that ceejay could be anything but mechanically locktown.

[LuckyLuciano]

Can confirm, site is running slow.

If I'm playing the mafia face and open wolfsiding all game, why does Wooper play aggro day 2? It just doesn't make sense. scum!Lucky only ever works with a passive second mafia, or if you assume Wooper horribly misplayed our team dynamic. The latter assumption still fails to explain why Cheeky sheeped the hell out of me when I replaced in. Are we really trying to operate under the assumption that both Cheeky and Wooper misplayed their role in a scumteam with me massively? Further, why would I take an open-wolf stance as the mafia PR? Knowing what we know now with flips, if I'm mafia, I'm the roleblocker. Why would I play so aggro as the roleblocker? It doesn't compute.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, I hope whatever you are going through is resolved quickly and positively Homura. Best wishes.

Homura, if I'm lynched and flip green, who is scum?

[happyorange]

Only semi-around. If homura hasn't voted in half an hour I'll hammer her.

[Homura]

Also shouldn't be ignoring the fact that Mena read me as town for the hammer despite being one of the two leading wagons and savvy enough to consider most players hammering in that situation as NAI or scum-indicative bussing. He knows that scum!me would never hammer when I could have chosen to hammer town, because I'm not confident enough in my scumplay to solo scum. I was in a position where, if I were scum, I can convincingly hammer Mena if need be and would only need to coast two dayphases instead of just one. I would never pick the less optimal WIFOM as scum.

P-edit: Thanks for the kind wishes.

Homura, if I'm lynched and flip green, who is scum?

You don't flip green here.

P-edit 2: This is killing me. It's taking two minutes to even load the page.

[LuckyLuciano]

Mena also said that if we lynch me and I flip green to not autolynch Crush next DP, meaning he was open to re-evaluating your slot or CJV's. Both of which seem foreign to you. I think Mena was hiding some of his thoughts to avoid being nightkilled in the case that I'm mislynched today.

[LuckyLuciano]

13 minutes, Crush MIA.

[Crush]

@LL, yes I did read back but the site has been terribly slow. I didn't really find anything that stood out to me, the only thing is that there's definitely an argument to be made that Wooper talked Homura into hammering because Homura's game-long TR switched to her hammering Wooper.

But then it means they were blatantly partnering and I don’t know if it’s a play they would’ve taken under the heat they were under D2.

LL never TR'ed Wooper explicitely, his MR on Menal was too strong to consider lynching someone else, if taken by face value. They all-inned on lynching Menal D2, in case it worked LL could've quoted himself saying it was CJ + Wooper all along, Wooper would've been the most obvious lynch based on D2 and then LL would've had town cred going into D4.

is still on my mind tho and I feel like I should just go with my initial gut reaction that you're more likely to be mafia aligned than Homura is, there's a truth to what Orange and Homura said in that the results of your pushes have just been really bad this game and I think at some point I should just conclude that other players (Menal, Orange) have a better read on you than I do.

VOTE: LL