Newbie 1992 | Game Over

[Karnage]

Vote Count 2.6

Marashu (2) ~

Maduisha, word321,

Malakittens (2) ~

Datisi, skitter30,

Datisi (1) ~

Malakittens,

word321 (1) ~

Marashu,

Not voting (1) ~

clidd,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-04-05 13:00:00)

V/LA:

• skitter30 - Fridays and Saturdays

[Maduisha]

Anybody else having issues with loading times on the forum?

Me too, but at least today it's just some delay. Yesterday I had trouble to connect to the forum at all.

[clidd]

I feel like a bomb went off near me and I need some time to think. I will be back later.

Is this figurative? R u all right?

Figurative, bomb of thoughts. Don't worry, I'm fine physically.

[clidd]

''I have to agree that I think there’s scum between the experienced players {Datisi, clidd & Skitter}''

- The previous premise that it would not be natural for a newbie to come to the conclusion that the claim was true appears to be in line with the reasoning behind this agreement.

can you explain this bit again?

She had an appropriate reasoning process to arrive at the conclusion presented above. It did not seem substantial to me.

[clidd]

I may regret this, but I believe that the interaction between Word and Marashu was TvT.

[Datisi]

So... what set off the figurative bomb? Any new conclusions?

pedit: damn, spicy.

[skitter30]

i'm more asking if you can explain the paragraph 'the previous premise' etc. i'm not following your logic there

[clidd]

I had a radical shift in perspective with Marashu being a potential town, as it implies that the two wagons last day were on towns.

[skitter30]

i'm having a hard time seeing it
can you explain why you think he's town?

[clidd]

I'll go into details when I'm at home, my fingers are not able to follow my reasoning on the cell phone's virtual keyboard.

[clidd]

I got home, my post will take some time.

[Marashu]

You have scumness enough by urself, and u r in the middle of 2 strong scum candidates of mine, skitt and men. U being town would lead to skitt, u being scum would lead to mala. U, again, r both informative and scummy. Now, we have a proportion of 5/2 town/scum today;

tomorrow, it will be 3/2 if we misslynch u, a Lylo wich the possible town candidates may have begun to be planted today.

So, as I see, the scumness of ur slot wont go anywhere; I believed we should have investugated thoroughly the other slots. We are talking about a Datisi, a clidd, not just mala/mara. There are 2 scums, even if u r one there must be another, if we agree to lynch a mar we may either or save a Lylo, if scum now cant go back on his word, or lynch with a 2/6, even more excluding the townread by everyone (wich may as well just die tomorrow), and 2/5 as an individual probability excluding ones own scum possibility. Thats almost as good as a lylo by itself.

This feels like a scumslip - it looks like you are confirming that lynching me will bring us to LyLo. But I'll admit it's a bit difficult to parse this.

@Mala what are your thoughts on word?

@Dat, you voted Mala to get that conversation going, but you haven't put on any pressure besides that. Where are you going with it?

[Marashu]

PS - Yes, my page loads, posts, etc are also happening really slowly.

[Datisi]

@Dat, you voted Mala to get that conversation going, but you haven't put on any pressure besides that. Where are you going with it?

Can't put pressure on someone who literally isn't here. I've laid out my reasons for the vote. When they return, I'm expecting some sorta response. If the response is good, we move on to Other Things. If it's not, I will make them hang. Easy as that.

[clidd]

I was thoughtful since yesterday, when I witnessed Marashu's explanation for his inactivity.

First, I would like to clarify that this is my particular view of the slot and is subject to my personal interpretation of the facts.

With that in mind, the question is:

why is Marashu town ?

We know that he has a very low frequency of posts in this game, especially when we make the numerical comparison of the number of posts discriminated in his ISO (34) with the total number of posts made by all players (1414). His participation rate is compatible with two substitutions followed in time, although he demonstrates that he is trying to significantly follow the chain of events in the game. Considering his situation in isolation, we came to the basic conclusion that he is a very damaging slot to stay alive to a possible lylo, partly due to the frequency, partly because of strange reads and partly due to the lack of expressive scumhunting. However, this analysis is not correct. When I typed in my post 1370, I was beginning to wonder if there would be additional circumstances that could influence Marashu's quality of play, so that I could understand whether it fit the profile of lurking-scum or busy-struggling. My pre-analysis in post 928 about him did not take into account that he would have an alibi or motivation to play in such way, so unconsciously the image of

'' laziness ''

and

'' apathy ''

came to my mind before getting access to the personal information he released in post 1372, which cleared my mind regarding this icy stance.

Tonight's a night I do have some time. This is out of game stuff so read into it as you will, but I'm a software developer for a company that makes software for food banks. I'm usually working during the day and on the odd evening (

like last night

) I may need to do some extra hours to try getting some features rolled out in time considering the state of thing, but as a general rule I make a point of ending by 4:30. When I signed on I figured

I would have a few hours to play

per evening and probably an hour in the morning before work, but

I've been sleeping through my alarm

lately and not having time to post in the morning. As for the evenings, when I signed up

I failed to factor in that my wife

would also have a lot of extra time (she's normally a busy person and is usually not home in the evenings), and has been expecting my attention. To be specific:

Post 450 was interrupted

Post 1179 was distracted

(and I was told that if I can't split my attention then I shouldn't be posting in the first place)

I try to at least read posts during work breaks so I can at least stay caught up on what's happening, but I try to do more analysis when I revisit it later. I'm making efforts to at least manage my time and my posts better as I adapt, which I hope are coming through D2.

In addition to the detailed personal facts, such as type of work, workload, function, wife and the effort he is determined to apply, there is something even more suggestive. Looking at the parts highlighted in red it is possible to notice that he not only tried to describe the events that were having an impact on his life, but also consulted past experiences that had an impact on his performance throughout the game. The fact that he searches for this information in his memory reflects a transparency that hardly an expert

Newbie!Scum

would have the talent to emulate. If he chose to lie, there would be a brief description of recent activities that are affecting his time, but he would not go into detail about it. So it would be a half-truth. What happened here, however, demonstrated a convincing and extremely atypical degree of sincerity, something that a profile of an active

Scum!Lurker

doesn't have.



Now, taking a look at the sequence of posts: [30, 108, 257, 302, 450, 620, 747, 886, 963, 1076, 1179, 1273, 1383], there are 12 gaps between the jumps: [78

( 30 ~ 108)

, 149

(108 ~ 257)

, 45

(257 ~ 302)

, 148

(302 ~ 450)

, 170

(450 ~ 620)

, 127

(620 ~ 747)

, 139

(747 ~ 886)

, 77

(886 ~ 963)

, 113

(963 ~ 1076)

, 103

(1076 ~ 1179)

, 94

(1179 ~ 1273)

, 110

(1273 ~ 1383)

] that indicate a pattern of distance between posts that suggests a true interval in real life, which it has a tendency to repeat itself, with occasional small oscillations, but which seem to reinforce the existence of an alibi, possibly according to the agenda that Marashu released. Obviously, it is impossible for me to accurately deduce the peak times in his external activity, but there is certainly a fixed routine behind it. It doesn't make sense to me that

Scum!Marashu

would premedit the creation of specific times to post on the forum, much less that with all the personal difficulties he would insist on continuing in the game, without asking for substitution or making posts that indicate expressive disinterest in the direction of the game , especially because of some accusations that suggest that he set aside time to read these events. Try to see it from this angle: you are a married developer, with little leisure time, you have work stress, marriage pressure, house obligations, bills, personal problems, and you are looking for fun in MS (which obviously is not your only option), to find yourself in an uncomfortable position of eminent lynch, but still manages to remain calm and continue playing the way you learned, although you are rusty due to your experience referring to years ago (108, 301). Obviously, the natural way would be to lose interest immediately due to the additional stress of having to play as a scum, as this implies having to deceive others and act in a biased way, something that many people, especially newbies and former players who have had experience with the theme but are only returning now, feel uncomfortable being forced to perform. I'm sure we wouldn't see

Scum!Marashu

dragging on so far, keeping in mind that he would be the main lynch of the day.

Other specific points are:

[108] -> Taking the claim seriously, something the mafia would try to ignore to gain information.
[886] -> Accusing a slot difficult to lynch compared to the available options.

Scum!Marashu

was not going to expose himself in that inconsequential way.
[1068] -> Ignoring the fact that Skitter gave an unvote, possibly because of a semi-arrogant perspective that demonstrates an ego about the opinion he was formulating about Skitter, something that

Scum!Marashu

would be more humble to recognize because he would have no ego about something that he is aware of is false.
[1264] -> Audacity to consider Maduisha in the pool of possible scums, ignoring or not noticing the fact that she is TR in most of the player's reads.

Scum!Marashu

would be tempted to have a townread on her slot so as not to conflict with the SE players, especially Menalque and Skitter.
[1266] -> Speculating who the second mason is, somewhat illogical, because theoretically if the partner had the reasoning to notice that TRQ was not bluffing, he would be able to find the second mason without

Scum!Marashu's

intervention. Not to mention that there would be an orientation for

Scum!Marashu

not to comment on this so as not to raise even more suspicions about his slot.
[1269] -> Quoting again the subject about the second mason, instead of being strategically silent on the subject so as not to make his situation worse.
[1366] -> Strange vote, I believe

Scum!Marashu

would be inclined to vote for one of the players who are hardest encouraging his lynch or who are easier targets to sow doubt, such as Datisi and Menalque's replacement, for example, keeping in mind that Skitter has a degree of paranoia about these two slots.

Conclusion:

Town!Marashu

would explain the gaps I notice in his game, because if he, in theory, has an intellectual partner enough to take the risk of facing the TRQ claim as true and killing her overnight, there should be a better conduct guidance for Marashu, because if it were at least a game with 12 ~ 13 players in which there are 3 scums, I would even understand a suicidal orientation strategy for the cognitively weaker scum of the team, but that has no cohesion in one Newbie game with 2 scums where most are trying to absorb the experience of the game. The insistence on staying in the match despite the difficulties seems to me to be a town characteristic, even though he doesn't have such a high frequency. His profile does not suggest bias with such a low level of play, but rather an adaptation to the circumstances that life has provided. I also believe that the strategy of accusing a slot like Skitter, which is difficult to lynch, as well as the doubts raised about me, which I have significant influence with some players are illogical moves from a scum perspective that aims to choose the most viable options to facilitate the approximation of their victory conditions. As well as openly speculating who the second mason is, it is extremely irresponsible and distant from the scenario in which the mafia is trying to take advantage of information. Therefore, I am inclined to consider his slot town.

[clidd]

i'm more asking if you can explain the paragraph 'the previous premise' etc. i'm not following your logic there

You are probably talking about the post below.

As for TRQ in the beginning of page 1 I thought it was a mere joke to have a mason claim right off the bat. I also snickered at the fact why would someone claim mason in a newbie game and realized that it changed to include mason’s. I also felt like some players had a townlean from it.

I have to agree that I think there’s scum between the experienced players {Datisi, clidd & Skitter}

I believe that there was an indirect consideration on her part about the theory that a scum SE realized that the claim was not false and premeditated the murder of TRQ, which would explain the sudden agreement in the last line. The

''previous premise''

refers to her thinking about this theory and accepting it.

[Datisi]

ok that is a case and a half and i'm not sure if i have the needed amount of wakefulness to fully soak it in right now

my question right now being: who do you think

is

scum then?

[clidd]

You, Malakittens, Skitter -->

2 scums there.

Maduisha, Marashu and Word -->

Towns

.

My analysis on Maduisha remains correct, I completed my analysis on Marashu and it is now correct and Word is an impression I have, although I have not done a detailed analysis om him yet.

When the impossible is eliminated, what remains, even if unbelievable, must be the truth. Which sums up my PoE.

[clidd]

Maybe you switch places with Word, but Maduisha and Marashu are fixed points.

Well, I'm going to rest now. English is not my native language, so I had to transcribe the entire contents of my notebook adapting words and terms, which consumed twice the time that I would normally take.

[Datisi]

if i remember Day 1 correctly, I think Mala flipping scum would make word town. I think I saw some non-partnery posts between Mena and word.

[skitter30]

This feels like a scumslip - it looks like you are confirming that lynching me will bring us to LyLo. But I'll admit it's a bit difficult to parse this.

i mean ... he literally said if you're mislynched it's lylo
how is that a scumslip?

[skitter30]

When I typed in my post 1370, I was beginning to wonder if there would be additional circumstances that could influence Marashu's quality of play, so that I could understand whether it fit the profile of lurking-scum or busy-struggling. My pre-analysis in post 928 about him did not take into account that he would have an alibi or motivation to play in such way, so unconsciously the image of '' laziness '' and '' apathy '' came to my mind before getting access to the personal information he released in post 1372, which cleared my mind regarding this icy stance.

1372 can be true as either alignment
the fact that he's busy irl doesn't condemn him, nor does it absolve him

the problem is that when he *is* here his posting quality is quite bad

[skitter30]

The fact that he searches for this information in his memory reflects a transparency that hardly an expert Newbie!Scum would have the talent to emulate. If he chose to lie, there would be a brief description of recent activities that are affecting his time, but he would not go into detail about it. So it would be a half-truth. What happened here, however, demonstrated a convincing and extremely atypical degree of sincerity, something that a profile of an active Scum!Lurker doesn't have.

this is like the easiest thing for scum to lie about
heck, they don't even need to lie about it, it can quite easily be truth

again, i believe it's the truth. it doesn't change, once again, that his posts are bad when he *is* here

[skitter30]

Obviously, the natural way would be to lose interest immediately due to the additional stress of having to play as a scum, as this implies having to deceive others and act in a biased way, something that many people, especially newbies and former players who have had experience with the theme but are only returning now, feel uncomfortable being forced to perform. I'm sure we wouldn't see Scum!Marashu dragging on so far, keeping in mind that he would be the main lynch of the day.

it's literally nai. this is no reason to absolve him.
again, *all of this can be true* and he can be too busy to play as town and explaining why, and having a posting history that matches
or, *all of this can be true* and he can be too busy to play as scum, and explaining why, and having a posting history that matches
or he can be scum and using his personal life as an excuse to avoid posting

like any of these are possibilities, and none of this is ai ^^^

and this is why the main points i raised against him way back when were largely *not* activity based

do you have reasons to townread him that are not irl based that could just as well apply if he's scum?

[skitter30]

do you have reasons to townread him that are not irl based that could just as well apply if he's scum?

sorry ignore this i hadn't fully gotten to the rest of the post yet ^