Micro 932: A Normal Blitz - Game Over

[Luca Blight]

Luca, do you have any follow-up to 145?

Are you asking if I agree with Monkey’s PoV?

[Hiraki]

What does this mean?

it means that it felt like monkey wanted to scumread you but make no real effort to push you right then, but you engaged him on his scumread to the point where he could no longer ignore it.

Ah, beautiful. Not sure if you're stealing but I will deem it satisfactory for the moment.

[Datisi]

Luca, do you have any follow-up to 145?

Are you asking if I agree with Monkey’s PoV?

I meant to ask if you like his explanation or do you still think it's contradictory? And general opinion on MonkeyvHiraki?

[shiki]

What does this mean?

it means that it felt like monkey wanted to scumread you but make no real effort to push you right then, but you engaged him on his scumread to the point where he could no longer ignore it.

Ah, beautiful. Not sure if you're stealing but I will deem it satisfactory for the moment.

i was trying to communicate the same thing here:

i am very wary of this approach to hiraki. hiraki is repeatedly lynched as town, but not usually on day one. scumreading him but not pushing or voting him until he goaded you into it feels like setting up later actions.

it is hard for me to tell whether or not people are understanding me.

[HoldenGolden]

Luca, do you have any follow-up to 145?

Holden, you fully caught up? opinion on players who are not monkey/hiraki?

Hot Takes: hiraki and holden probably town.

Do note I have a virtual interview in 30 mins (god save me), so I be afk/have to pause reading to get ready.

Yet so far not much to say:
Luca is british. Does that matter? Yes. Means that me and him share a stereotypical love for tea (though I prefer mine heavily sweeten). I'm ok giving a town lean to him at this current moment, IE, I don't feel scum motivation in how he asked questions towards people. I think scum!luca could of been more aggressive with his questioning along with pushing Hiraki more daringly. Once he mounts up something akin to a case against someone I can revisit and judge accordingly.

Yes I did see the meta point raised about him; No, I do not care about meta for players I have not played with and in general.

Everybody else I am null/debating in my head further.

Spoiler: TLDR waiting for more

George/Mao color person/shiki I do not have strong feeling for either way. First 2 from lack of posts having major AI, latter due to waiting on seeing how the transition from pre-game meta analysis to in-game logic/tonal analysis works out. It has started, but not onto a scope for a read.

Bugs gets separated by virtue of the wagon's focus on him, though is similar to George and Mao. They feel rambly during the whole lamist thing and I feel taking stock based off later posts will be better.

Surprisingly I don't have an good read on you, hence why after my interview I'm going to look at your posts a bit more.

[Luca Blight]

@Datisi: ‘Contradictory’ was in reference to Monkey’s stance on Bugs - he doesn’t like your vote as Bugs hasn’t been scummy yet he approves of the pressure on Bugs.

I didn’t particularly ‘like’ Monkey’s Datisi explanation, but I can see where he’s coming from (I’ve already said I didn’t like your opening much either).

As for my read on Monkey, I was beginning to TR him towards the end of his argument with Hiraki, but I’ll need to ISO before I’m confident on that read.

[bugspray]

good morning i read stuff and now i dont know what to think ahhhh also i have to pee

[Datisi]

Ah, i misunderstood what you were calling contradictory, my bad.

[Datisi]

bugs, mind giving us thoughts about the gamestate? Or like anything?

[bugspray]

its fuckin weird how georgebailey isnt posting since a long time ago (weird to say that with 24h days...)
with how my wagon became stagnant it makes me think maybe its scumdriven?? but i dont think ur the scum on my wagon bcs you seem to be actively townsolve and get ai posts happen

like do we just lynch the inactive slot??

[bugspray]

someone else maybe to watch out for shiki? like when im trying to think of ppl in the game without reading it usually the people who im least likely to remember have ended up being scum. i know this definitely happened to me in micro 911 where amrun was a lurky scum

[bugspray]

when im looking at the playerlist and I think woah i dont remember you being in the game that makes the alarm bell in my brain go ding

[Datisi]

how does your wagon being stagnant (???) make it scumdriven?

[HoldenGolden]

Blah, I think I got the position but we shall see.

@Datisi: ‘Contradictory’ was in reference to Monkey’s stance on Bugs - he doesn’t like your vote as Bugs hasn’t been scummy yet he approves of the pressure on Bugs.

I didn’t particularly ‘like’ Monkey’s Datisi explanation, but I can see where he’s coming from (I’ve already said I didn’t like your opening much either).

As for my read on Monkey,

I was beginning to TR him towards the end of his argument with Hiraki,

but I’ll need to ISO before I’m confident on that read.

What do you make of my arguments then?

@Bugs, Kool about George.

Im not quite sure I follow your points about Shiki? And if George is afk for longer than mods will do their job, or if not enough time is left, we can mount a wagon later in the day.

Do you make anything about Hiraki/HEM?

-----
Time to read Datinisnisnii

[bugspray]

people have said that before about stagnant wagons how if the wagon is stagnant they say its scum driven
maybe i missed the point

[HoldenGolden]

Hmm, yes Datisi can be moved into the town lean pile for now.

Spoiler:

If you get this then you get a cookie and a hug

I also understand the stagnant wagon point, though I have my own commentary on it

[Datisi]

i don't get it and now i'm sad.

also what's your commentary about the wagon?

[HoldenGolden]

I will also say the wagon(s) are anything but stagnant in terms of the analysis since we are only ~14 hours in and have moved votes quite a bit and the thread is still discussing multiple people.

pedit: Datisi, I can explain the theory behind it if you are done questioning bugs about it (hate to get in the way of good prodding).

[Datisi]

bugs's futher posting is just making me think they're scum more and more. i think further questioning would just lead to more confbiasing regardless of their actual alignment. so fire away.

[HoldenGolden]

The theory is rooted in VCA mixed with thread review. From my understanding, if there is a clear majority (4 main wagon with 1-2 on sub wagons) or if there is an equal and unmoving spread (3 2 vote wagons for example) the main wagon is thought to be stagnant if it remains like that with little change in the thread's opinion on the wagon(s). People might be posting that Y and Z are scum along with X, but X is still the person they vote for.

Assuming a few factors such as X is not scum, then this is advantageous for scum. They have a mislynch, are spreading the seeds for other lynches afterwards, and they don't have to stick they neck out to save a buddy or secure it. Since the thread is focus on lynching that person, it also tends to take heat off them. Compare this to when one of their members are in the main wagon's against a townie and, upon review either post game or later in the game, the members of the mafia not being vote are sticking their necks out to vote the other wagon thus saving their teammate.

For me, it falls apart because the timeframe is not something easy to notice in the moment while playing and tends to me more noticeable after the phase it occurs in. Furthermore, it is also assuming scum does not just bus their partner and that there are multiple scum alive to actively derail the wagon on their partner. Plus some scum are most likely going to remain on the scum buddy wagon if the defense does not work well. One scum alone really can't shift off the pressure any differently than a town can in this context.

Besides, It also has only been 15~ hours so not nearly enough time to call it stagnate let alone when considering what has been happening in the game.

[Datisi]

its fuckin weird how georgebailey isnt posting since a long time ago (weird to say that with 24h days...)

with how my wagon became stagnant it makes me think maybe its scumdriven?? but i dont think ur the scum on my wagon bcs you seem to be actively townsolve and get ai posts happen

like do we just lynch the inactive slot??

people have said that before about stagnant wagons how if the wagon is stagnant they say its scum driven

maybe i missed the point

right. anyway. this sequence makes me feel like bugs posted about their wagon being stagnant because it is scumdriven (even though it's not really stagnant because the game has started less than 24 hours ago *and* they just said that they don't think i'm scum) purely because they had to post ~something~ (even though they didn't seem to put much thought behind what it means that a wagon is stagnant and why that would indicate scum) and also it served as an additional deflection onto george. except they're not even voting george. so. idk.

[bugspray]

im not going to move my vote to a dormant slot when theres another one thats actually posting that i can park my vote on to help add pressure to

[bugspray]

if the deadline is getting scarier i will absolutely policy lynch inactive!george but if he starts posting and is super town then im gonna be reconsidering my read on datisi

[Datisi]

if the deadline is getting scarier i will absolutely policy lynch inactive!george but if he starts posting and is super town then im gonna be reconsidering my read on datisi

why does george!town make you want to reconsider your read on me?

[Hiraki]

The theory is rooted in VCA mixed with thread review. From my understanding, if there is a clear majority (4 main wagon with 1-2 on sub wagons) or if there is an equal and unmoving spread (3 2 vote wagons for example) the main wagon is thought to be stagnant if it remains like that with little change in the thread's opinion on the wagon(s). People might be posting that Y and Z are scum along with X, but X is still the person they vote for.

Assuming a few factors such as X is not scum, then this is advantageous for scum. They have a mislynch, are spreading the seeds for other lynches afterwards, and they don't have to stick they neck out to save a buddy or secure it. Since the thread is focus on lynching that person, it also tends to take heat off them. Compare this to when one of their members are in the main wagon's against a townie and, upon review either post game or later in the game, the members of the mafia not being vote are sticking their necks out to vote the other wagon thus saving their teammate.

For me, it falls apart because the timeframe is not something easy to notice in the moment while playing and tends to me more noticeable after the phase it occurs in. Furthermore, it is also assuming scum does not just bus their partner and that there are multiple scum alive to actively derail the wagon on their partner. Plus some scum are most likely going to remain on the scum buddy wagon if the defense does not work well. One scum alone really can't shift off the pressure any differently than a town can in this context.

Besides, It also has only been 15~ hours so not nearly enough time to call it stagnate let alone when considering what has been happening in the game.

If I can add to this, this theory isn't held up very well. I remember reading about it once in the mafia discussion forums (probably awhile back now). I also think that in my own personal view that scumdriven wagons are usually those that are working rather than stagnant. The logic behind it is solid but it's not very practical. It requires a lot of teamwork on the scumside which usually never works out for a good scumteam that tries to be independent to hedge their losses.