Mini Normal 2125: Chiptune Mafia [The End]

[Aloratom]

I'll probably L-1 soon. I wished to have more thoughts from Paragon/Eyestott/S_S but pulling teeth hasn't given me much read clarity this game.

This is the principle reason I haven't voted NDMath yet. I don't want to put them at L-1 without a little more input, but I'm not sure that it matters at this point.

[Taly]

Alo is my rationale for Blake-Churros interaction being T-T poor? Blake changing her view on the slot based on who she believes it to be feels town indicative on her part for a few reasons:
1) She gave no hint to who she thought it was, this means she resolved the read independent of anyone's POV but her own, and I don't think that's easily faked as scum.
2) Even if she were to fake it, she's good at understanding the gamestate, her not getting caught up with her Churros' scumread + his pushing on her and reevaluating him is oriented to bringing the game together.
3) Her raising her level of suspicion on me makes sense in a world where Churros is town. Her reads revolve around what she thinks scum is doing, and thus far the narrative she finds is that - if any scum exists in (Churros/Taly/Paragon) - it is only one. This is consistent to her solve.

Churros for other reasons:
1) He has reason to still come for this slot but has reevaluated his reads. Also, it would've made little sense for him to create a Fuzzy-Taly scumteam solve WoD1 when he knew Fuzzy would flip town.
2) Has pushed Blake but there doesn't feel as much fuel there at the moment, I think his lack of impact against his scumread more likely comes from town ina. Gsmestate where 2 wagons remain with little resistance but little change on them.
3) He's entertaining multiple solves, but he's not jumping on anyone. His questioning feels more investigative than combative. I don't receive an opportunistic vibe here.

I will say, I still have reservations with both of their posts this dayphase but the world where I see these two as scum (and you) is lower than every other slot in this game.

I even want to say Paragon is also in the same group, but I don't see enough of their posting to dig into the progression of their POV so its partially based off what my other townreads are thinking.

[Aloratom]

Alo is my rationale for Blake-Churros interaction being T-T poor? Blake changing her view on the slot based on who she believes it to be feels town indicative on her part for a few reasons:
1) She gave no hint to who she thought it was, this means she resolved the read independent of anyone's POV but her own, and I don't think that's easily faked as scum.
2) Even if she were to fake it, she's good at understanding the gamestate, her not getting caught up with her Churros' scumread + his pushing on her and reevaluating him is oriented to bringing the game together.
3) Her raising her level of suspicion on me makes sense in a world where Churros is town. Her reads revolve around what she thinks scum is doing, and thus far the narrative she finds is that - if any scum exists in (Churros/Taly/Paragon) - it is only one. This is consistent to her solve.

Churros for other reasons:
1) He has reason to still come for this slot but has reevaluated his reads. Also, it would've made little sense for him to create a Fuzzy-Taly scumteam solve WoD1 when he knew Fuzzy would flip town.
2) Has pushed Blake but there doesn't feel as much fuel there at the moment, I think his lack of impact against his scumread more likely comes from town ina. Gsmestate where 2 wagons remain with little resistance but little change on them.
3) He's entertaining multiple solves, but he's not jumping on anyone. His questioning feels more investigative than combative. I don't receive an opportunistic vibe here.

I will say, I still have reservations with both of their posts this dayphase but the world where I see these two as scum (and you) is lower than every other slot in this game.

I even want to say Paragon is also in the same group, but I don't see enough of their posting to dig into the progression of their POV so its partially based off what my other townreads are thinking.

I'm going to take the long way round in answering your question. I'm sure that I've mentioned that I have difficulty thinking in associatives. Initially, it's important to note that I have difficulty reconciling a Blake/NDMath team. I was reading them scummy independently, but a lot of that carried over from Day 1. At this moment, based on Day 2 NDMath is more scummy than Blake. I think her points about NDMath are well taken, and his flip on his read on her does not track. And I think her 1843 and 1883 are solve-type posts that give me strong Town vibes. Her 1v1 with Churros doesn't mean a whole lot to me principally because they both seem to know each other from before and, quite frankly, they are on a different level than I am. That's one of the reasons I indicated at the start of the day that I was having trouble sorting Blake and Churros and would have more on them but never got back to it. I was having a difficult time following their dialogue and even on re-read I can't quite get my head around it. You may be right about her fingering you in that Churros/Taly/Paragon grouping, but, again, I need someone to draw me a flowchart when it comes to analysis of this type. I'm not the type of person to tell you I agree with something when it's because I don't understand it. Maybe you could dumb it down for me a bit.

I had been reading Churros null Day 1, and that stayed pretty constant. Like you, I don't understand why a scum!Churros would push a Taly/Fuzzy team, but I didn't really catch the supposed partner slip thing to begin with and wasn't too worried about it anyway since I had you as a Town read. I'm not sure why he's still voting Blake right now. I get the impression from 1848 that it has something to do with the lack of posting that's occurring. There just doesn't seem to be a lot happening. I tried yesterday, weakly, to get him to join me on NDMath, but there wasn't any interest, but I think there may be some today if I read 1849 correctly. That doesn't sound opportunistic to me.

So in the end, I don't see anything that prevents a TvT between Blake and Churros. They both scum read NDMath to a certain extent, and it seems as if they were both scum, their 1v1 would be time consuming to script. In addition, they both appear experienced enough that they're going to be aware of potential manipulation. I also don't get the sense from their interactions on Day 2 that either has been pocketed. To the contrary, I think that it's very likely that it wouldn't take much for either to scum read the other. 1831 and 1842 kind of tell me it's a precarious situation (even with the declarative nature of 1842), but it very well could be TvT.

[Taly]

Alo is my rationale for Blake-Churros interaction being T-T poor? Blake changing her view on the slot based on who she believes it to be feels town indicative on her part for a few reasons:
1) She gave no hint to who she thought it was, this means she resolved the read independent of anyone's POV but her own, and I don't think that's easily faked as scum.
2) Even if she were to fake it, she's good at understanding the gamestate, her not getting caught up with her Churros' scumread + his pushing on her and reevaluating him is oriented to bringing the game together.
3) Her raising her level of suspicion on me makes sense in a world where Churros is town. Her reads revolve around what she thinks scum is doing, and thus far the narrative she finds is that - if any scum exists in (Churros/Taly/Paragon) - it is only one. This is consistent to her solve.

Churros for other reasons:
1) He has reason to still come for this slot but has reevaluated his reads. Also, it would've made little sense for him to create a Fuzzy-Taly scumteam solve WoD1 when he knew Fuzzy would flip town.
2) Has pushed Blake but there doesn't feel as much fuel there at the moment, I think his lack of impact against his scumread more likely comes from town ina. Gsmestate where 2 wagons remain with little resistance but little change on them.
3) He's entertaining multiple solves, but he's not jumping on anyone. His questioning feels more investigative than combative. I don't receive an opportunistic vibe here.

I will say, I still have reservations with both of their posts this dayphase but the world where I see these two as scum (and you) is lower than every other slot in this game.

I even want to say Paragon is also in the same group, but I don't see enough of their posting to dig into the progression of their POV so its partially based off what my other townreads are thinking.

I'm going to take the long way round in answering your question. I'm sure that I've mentioned that I have difficulty thinking in associatives. Initially, it's important to note that I have difficulty reconciling a Blake/NDMath team. I was reading them scummy independently, but a lot of that carried over from Day 1. At this moment, based on Day 2 NDMath is more scummy than Blake. I think her points about NDMath are well taken, and his flip on his read on her does not track. And I think her 1843 and 1883 are solve-type posts that give me strong Town vibes. Her 1v1 with Churros doesn't mean a whole lot to me principally because they both seem to know each other from before and, quite frankly, they are on a different level than I am. That's one of the reasons I indicated at the start of the day that I was having trouble sorting Blake and Churros and would have more on them but never got back to it. I was having a difficult time following their dialogue and even on re-read I can't quite get my head around it. You may be right about her fingering you in that Churros/Taly/Paragon grouping, but, again, I need someone to draw me a flowchart when it comes to analysis of this type. I'm not the type of person to tell you I agree with something when it's because I don't understand it. Maybe you could dumb it down for me a bit.

Blake

-scum has 0 to gain from constructing a narrative that incriminates her, or have her buddies killed without reason. Anything otherwise (her intentionally bussing all partners) would be both a stretch to surmise right now, and a nightmare scenario.

If she's saying that all scum of this game are most likely within

(Alo/S_S/NDMath/eyestott/

Fuzzy

)

(Based off her D1 AND D2 pools)

And that there's a maximum of 1 scum within

(Churros/Taly/Paragon/

Luca

/

Pops

)

- IF any, but isn't pursuing this. (idfk about

FB

tbh)

There's a strong chance she's not bussing in the first group as scum. (Like you said,

Blake/NDMath

is improbable as S-S.)
But as

Blake

-town, these reads are genuine. So here's the thing:

Churros-Blake

doesn't feel it to me based on - mostly - how

Blake

responded to someone voting her, and not the lynch she's pushing for. She had a scumread on

Churros

and could've easily loped him into a team with

NDMath

but didn't.

Taly-Blake

is just not true. This can be argued, sure, but nope.

Paragon-Blake

is the only reality that makes most sense, but I'm feeling

Paragon

is likelier town here, so that's not a reality I'm exploring.

Based off my other reads and seeing potential worlds of her partners, I don't think she's likely scum with the gamestate she proposes that this game has.

Which leads me to the conclusion

Blake

is town.

I had been reading Churros null Day 1, and that stayed pretty constant. Like you, I don't understand why a scum!Churros would push a Taly/Fuzzy team, but I didn't really catch the supposed partner slip thing to begin with and wasn't too worried about it anyway since I had you as a Town read. I'm not sure why he's still voting Blake right now.

I get the impression from 1848 that it has something to do with the lack of posting that's occurring. There just doesn't seem to be a lot happening. I tried yesterday, weakly, to get him to join me on NDMath, but there wasn't any interest, but I think there may be some today if I read 1849 correctly. That doesn't sound opportunistic to me

.

I agree with the bolded.

So in the end, I don't see anything that prevents a TvT between Blake and Churros. They both scum read NDMath to a certain extent, and it seems as if they were both scum, their 1v1 would be time consuming to script. In addition, they both appear experienced enough that they're going to be aware of potential manipulation. I also don't get the sense from their interactions on Day 2 that either has been pocketed. To the contrary, I think that it's very likely that it wouldn't take much for either to scum read the other. 1831 and 1842 kind of tell me it's a precarious situation (even with the declarative nature of 1842), but it very well could be TvT.

Do you think S-S is possible between them at all here?

[Taly]

Fuck yeah, I think I just logic'd my way into getting a decent grasp on this game.

I'm smart and rationale

[Taly]

There's a strong chance she's not bussing in the first group as scum. (Like you said, Blake/NDMath is improbable as S-S.)

Like I said in my

Y'shtola

ISO, I have a hard time seeing

Blake

as scum but not partnered with

Paragon/

Pops/Luca

/Ame (FB)

At the moment it's looking more like

Churros/Paragon/FB (maybe)

, but I'm less sure of a lynch off this idea here.

[NDMath]

Fuck yeah, I think I just logic'd my way into getting a decent grasp on this game.

I'm smart and rationale

:thonk:
Uggh.

VOTE: Paragon

taly Tom fire eyes Churros
Para Blake S_S ND

I need more thinking time since I don't know how to be convincing.
Though I think there is a very high chance both scum are in the bottom line.

[NDMath]

To everybody else still alive in the game, I'd like to point this out.

NDMath had just asked me to convince him that he's not doing the same thing that I did with Y'shtola Rhul, the account where I was purposely vague and trying to get my points across without directly shifting the game towards my own will.

There's this:

I hope you are aware that there are times I get a lot of pressure from other players for not having confident scumreads on day one, or for not playing to some arbitrary standard that some people hold me to without necessarily having even played with me before.

And This:

I don't get stuck in the details because I simply don't read people by what they're doing, I read into their mindsets and how their thoughts are progressing.

I wasn't seeing you applying those beliefs to me, while I thought they did, and it wasn't making sense. Now, seeing you do not consider my play style similar to how you wish to play rhul, I can view it as nai.

[NDMath]

I could see Math scum sure.

But I've trouble with his partners if Taly isn't exactly one. If Taly isn't scum who would be Math partners anyway.

I hard TR Paragon, it's my main read

I think Eyesott has terrible posts but I still town read how he approached pops

I mostly town read Ame, even though Fire presence so far has been a bit underwhelming even for him.

I don't get any bad pings from Allo and his interactions with Math doesn't look SvS.

Blake is...probably not a Math partner.

If Taly isn't scum with Math this game just doesn't make sense from a mathematical POV for me for scum!Math with a 3-man team. I don't feel as good about a Taly/Math solve though as I did before. I think one of them might be likely scum at this gamestate but their interactions are kinda "huh" for buddies the more I think about it.

Math/Something_Smart would be a more reasonable solve but what's the probability of only 2 scum or 2 scum + traitor anyway?

In the worst case scenario, we still gain information from a NDMath townflip, since it changes the course of what the scumteam are doing this game. It's better to have that information earlier rather than later if there isn't a strong reason why NDMath should not be the lynch today.

I don't think that looking directly for associatives is the strongest course of action at this stage, regardless. If we have confirmation that NDMath is indeed scum, then we can look into associatives more tomorrow.

reeee you're doing the exact same thing as pops.

[NDMath]

In a day or 2 I'll joint iso paragon and wiisp/S_S and see if that makes sense as the scum team.

It's got to be that if it isn't blake+para...
I hard tr taly, Tom,
I still tr eyes, ame/fire
and I like churros on review

[Something_Smart]

both scum

VOTE: NDMath

[Taly]

both scum

VOTE: NDMath

NDMath

already made the conclusion that there's 2 mafia in 1802, what made you L-1 him when he said it here?

What I want verified on his recent posting is a bit more details on his readslist, and what

Blake

is doing that's similar to what

Pops

did.

[Taly]

In a day or 2 I'll joint iso paragon and wiisp/S_S and see if that makes sense as the scum team.

What about

Blake/Paragon

team?

And I strongly discourage anyone's hammer before you post the assessment, and a claim at some point.

[Taly]

And I strongly discourage anyone's hammer before you post the assessment, and a claim at some point.

Scratch that, if someone hammers before either and especially both, we will have a problem.

[Taly]

Oh wait, you mentioned

Blake+Paragon

, hmm

Churros

, can you explain your

Paragon

townread more?

[Something_Smart]

NDMath already made the conclusion that there's 2 mafia in 1802, what made you L-1 him when he said it here?

"I'm tempted to try to work with this assumption" is different from taking it as a given without even mentioning it.

[Aloratom]

Intent. 24 hours.

[Paragon]

Though I think there is a very high chance both scum are in the bottom line.

Remind me why you're assuming there's only 2 scum this game?

[Paragon]

Warrior of Light

[NDMath]

Though I think there is a very high chance both scum are in the bottom line.

Remind me why you're assuming there's only 2 scum this game?

If I am vt or one-shot vigilante it makes the most sense to me by a large margin.

If I am another pr, I am trying to not give away that I'm such, but am also comfortable that my role will not be hung today.

Intent. 24 hours.

Claim and thoughts on para/S_S coming an hour or 2 before this unless something changes.

[Blake Belladonna]

I could see Math scum sure.

But I've trouble with his partners if Taly isn't exactly one. If Taly isn't scum who would be Math partners anyway.

I hard TR Paragon, it's my main read

I think Eyesott has terrible posts but I still town read how he approached pops

I mostly town read Ame, even though Fire presence so far has been a bit underwhelming even for him.

I don't get any bad pings from Allo and his interactions with Math doesn't look SvS.

Blake is...probably not a Math partner.

If Taly isn't scum with Math this game just doesn't make sense from a mathematical POV for me for scum!Math with a 3-man team. I don't feel as good about a Taly/Math solve though as I did before. I think one of them might be likely scum at this gamestate but their interactions are kinda "huh" for buddies the more I think about it.

Math/Something_Smart would be a more reasonable solve but what's the probability of only 2 scum or 2 scum + traitor anyway?

In the worst case scenario, we still gain information from a NDMath townflip, since it changes the course of what the scumteam are doing this game. It's better to have that information earlier rather than later if there isn't a strong reason why NDMath should not be the lynch today.

I don't think that looking directly for associatives is the strongest course of action at this stage, regardless. If we have confirmation that NDMath is indeed scum, then we can look into associatives more tomorrow.

I don't think we can afford a mislynch, so I'm having trouble vibing with the idea of

"if

NDMath

is town, we have information"

I'm really trying to follow what you believe the scumteam is doing this game but I get the idea that it's problematic if you voice that, so I need a more elaborate breakdown of the gamestate or more sound reasons to scumread and lynch

NDMath

.

I am saying that on a fundamental level, the game as we are seeing it doesn't make sense in the case that NDMath is town.

It is important to have that confirmation now, because there is a chance that if the game is functioning differently than any of us is expecting it to, we both have a lower chance of gaining a scum lynch elsewhere as well as putting us in even more dire straits tomorrow in the case that we lynch town outside of NDMath today.

It is important to realize that the most likely possibility for why Luca Blight was the scumkill for night one is because he was the biggest pressure point on the scumteam directly. He was very gung ho about killing NDMath for the majority of his time in the game and he was defending Churros, but otherwise he was mostly single-minded in how he was approaching the game. It's hard to believe that he was fearkilled, due to the primary source of the BoP argument on him being from a player that is no longer in the game. It's also hard to find other reasons for him to be a notable first night kill except for the case where Churros is a desired mislynch going into day two. This coincides with the sudden momentum that appeared on my slot on day two, but this also indicates that NDMath is scum anyways since his jump was the worst of the three by far.

The way the game plays out like this makes too much sense and requires very few assumptions, because who else would be killed in this scenario? Churros and popsofctown have plenty of scattered suspicion onto them. Paragon, Firebringer, Aloratom, and eyestott are widely townread, but have had fairly little impact on the game towards the end of the day. Something_Smart has no impact and is not townread. Taly has had mounting suspicion onto him throughout the latter end of the day phase. I wasn't a solid kill outside of a BoP argument, which I suspect is evidence of primarily Taly being town, since I had just led a lynch on town and wasn't widely townread. Luca Blight is the best kill for the scumteam if NDMath is scum, since it's more precise play to kill Luca Blight on night two if NDMath is town both to help thwart a potential doctor and because then they get another free mislynch in the mix.

There's information you can gain from the kills, and the Luca Blight kill, when you look at the possibilities and what it would take for him to be left alive, leads directly to NDMath being scum.

[Blake Belladonna]

Warrior of Light

I'm still proud of that post.

[Blake Belladonna]

I believe that the game is mostly solved at this point.

It's hard for me to believe Churros is scum.
It's hard for me to believe Paragon is scum.
As useless and incorrect as Firebringer is, I still believe Ame was significantly town.
Taly has strange posts that make me wonder if he's trying to maneuver around the town in an overexaggerated way, but it's more likely he's just town that is undergoing mental strain regarding this game.
Aloratom equates back to town after his posts today. I didn't like the way he handled the end of day yesterday, but I'm not certain that wasn't more than a fluke.

NDMath is scum.
I can see eyestott's confusion being either genuine or fake.
Something_Smart is hard to parse.

Whether there is two scum, three scum, or two scum and a traitor, I believe that any traitor would be either Taly or Firebringer. I'm not entirely aware of how traitors are handled in the normal queue, but I suspect that traitors endgame when all group mafia are eliminated, so I'm not too worried about this.

Two scum would make sense to me if town is relatively light on power. I know that normal games tend to be rather townsided by my standards, so killing three vanilla town in a game where there is likely 4-5 town PRs is rather unlikely. It makes more sense if town's power is condensed into a smaller amount of players. In this case, I feel Something_Smart is a more likely partner than eyestott, but I would not remove Aloratom from suspicion either.

[Taly]

I can get behind this solve.

I can see the suspicion up to this point on me being less scum-led - if at all - by your viewpoint,

Blake

.

I TvT 3 times D1

(Pops/Churros/Paragon)

, defend a solid and correct townread that is lynched

(Fuzzy)

- the other being scum that buddies me

(NDMath)

, and the following frustration lead to me question the current wagons D2 with the NKs being slots I started resolving the most EoD1 - so I'm both a poor NK target, and someone who'd get mislynched by scum D2.

Everybody's interaction with me starts make me more sense, thinking that 2 lynchbait people I've towncased had a correct and incorrect read, and I voted wrong.

Which, sounds very likely, since I typically do get buddied/pocketed by someone AND towncase a mislynchbaity player in about every single town game I make it past N1.

With this narrative, I've consistently voted or pushed wrong this game, and the good reads/points that I have made had little, if any, impact.

Makes sense why I've felt that I had a poor grasp on the game.

[Taly]

Makes a lot more sense why

Luca

was a scum NK.

And it makes me less sure of

Eyestott

scum since he pointed this out. 1820

UNVOTE:

I'd hammer but

Alo's

expressed intent and

NDMath's

promised content beforehand, so I'll wait for that.