Mini Normal 2130: Mafia From Home [Game Over]

[NorwegianboyEE]

My main points against Una:

- Posturing on the Profii wagon. Unexplainable "gut" read of him being town, which reads as fake. And today he’s all about the LAMISTY arguments of "i townread Profii so i am right and Luca is scum."

- Claiming a guilty which he explains makes Luca 100% be scum. Howver turns out he was lying as he only had a result of Luca not being VT. But Luca never claimed VT, so why would a result of "not VT" mean Luca is scum? Nonetheless, with such certainty?

- His claimed role has negative town utility and positive scum utility.

[Zantetsu]

And here's a perfect example of what I mean, you're voting Anotora based on a post that has no reasoning behind it, and doing so without any reasoning of your own.
Do you have an actual reason for your vote?

Obviously - everyone that voted for Anotora yesterday is dead.

This is obviously false. So do you have an actual reason for your vote?

It's because your ISO was and still is, weak.

Weaker than Anotora's?

At this point I would say yes, your ISO is weaker than Anotora's. Admittedly it's a tough call.

[Zantetsu]

Here is a very rough list of who I'd prefer to lynch today (bottom is best option, top is worst option). Tricky because a lot of reads are dependent on others, and I definitely need a re-read tomorrow.

Order of lynch priority today

Luca Blight
Saudade
Looker
72offsuit
Egix96
Anotora
Riabi
Churros
NorwegianboyEE
UnaBombaH
Zantetsu
profii

Battle Mage scum reads Norwegian

I agree there is at least 1 scum in that trio, although think we'll have a lot more clarity once Proffi is lynched.

What kind of clarity do you expect to get from a profii lynch about whether or not Norwegian and I are scumbuddies?

Well, if Proffi is scum, Norweg will be top of the list tomorrow. And if Norweg is scum, you are top of the list on Day 3. I've got it all mapped out.

BattleMage scum reads Norwegian

Ah ah ah, I've asked you 3 times to explain what YOU think. Why won't you?

Because i don't respect you as a player.

Apparently you don't respect yourself enough as a player, to actually play the game, rather than make personal insults at me for no reason. Boring.

For me, it's not a question of whether I respect you as a player. It's a question of whether you are town or scum. And the shameless evasiveness when you are caught piggybacking Zantetsu with no justification, is the final nail for me!

Battle Mage scum reads Norwegian

Well I'm happy enough with a Proffi lynch!

However if nothing else sticks, NORWEG NEEDS TO BE LYNCHED TOMORROW.

============================={}

Unvote, Vote: Proffi

Battle Mage scum reads Norwegian

that theory goes...

Into the toilet where it belongs.

Are you seriously gloating right now?

Funny how quick people turn up to throw shade at me after the hammer...

Battle Mage scum reads Norwegian

Scum:
Zantetsu
Anotora
Churros

Neutral:
72offsuit
Riabi
Egix96
Looker

Town:
NorwegianboyEE
Luca Blight
UnaBombaH

This is roughly where I am in terms of reads. Interested in exploring the Anotora-Churros relationship as possible partners. I need a re-read of Zant, but outstandingly my top pick for a lynch today.

Battle Mage town reads Norwegian

What's changed since the end of D1 to justify this 180 on Norwegian? Hint: nothing.

And why voting me despite needing to do a re-read on me? Why would a player who he admits needing to do a re-read on be "outstandingly [his] top pick for a lynch today"?

Next post from Battle Mage:

You're claiming a cop with a guilty on Luca? Well that works for me.

Unvote, Vote: Luca

Battle Mage is also willing to do yet another 180 on Luca here and without even the hint of questioning of Una's claim or his understanding of it.

[Zantetsu]

I am a town neighbor, my neighbor is 72.

What is your result?

Can confirm, so unless Luca is a scum neighbour, Una is lying.

VOTE: Una

Why do you think it's more likely that Una is lying than Luca is a scum neighbor?

[Zantetsu]

So yea, I checked Luca last night, since you wouldn't let me confirm profii N1.

Yeah I knew this is what you were going for. My "informed town" theory was BS and I thought you were cop and was offering to investigate profii. All of your admonishment that I don't reveal your role was kind of funny to me because I had drawn up that theory specifically to support you while not revealing my suspicion of your role. I crumbed this at the bottom of my theory post:

You will see that as

Una is concentrating on profii

, he is signalling that he knows something about profii that the rest of us do not.

Una
is

c

oncentrating

o

n

p

rofii

Una is cop

It is possible that you are scum that planned this but that would be an amazingly elaborate ruse and given that you would have had to follow through with a fake investigate on profii had we not lynched him I just can't see why scum!una would gambit like this.

[Zantetsu]

I am a town neighbor, my neighbor is 72.

What is your result?

Can confirm, so unless Luca is a scum neighbour, Una is lying.

VOTE: Una

What's a scum neighbour? I assumed this was like a mason, but the whole point of masons is they are confirmed town to each other. So you're saying you confirm Luca's claim, but it doesn't mean he's town?

Assumed

what

was like a mason? Scum neighbor? How does scum neighbor being like a mason make any sense at all? Are you suggesting that 72 is claiming that Luca has a role that implies that if Luca is scum, then 72 must also be scum (which I guess is what your interpretation of 'scum neighbor' would be)? So you think that 72 would support Luca's claim in a way that basically outs them both as scum?

I dunno, maybe you're not scum; maybe you're just really dumb.

[Zantetsu]

Simple + Neapolitan (= "a native or inhabitant of Naples").

So if Luca is a neighbour, I should've gotten a "no result". (same for any PR + alignment for that matter)
If Luca were a Vanilla Townie, I would've gotten a "Vanilla Townie" for result.
Instead my result was "not Vanilla". Meaning that with my role-combination the only way I would get that, is if Luca were to be a Vanilla Goon.

If your role is simple neopolitan, and if Luca is a town neighbor, then you should have gotten a No Result on Luca.

Neopolitan on town neighbor would give result "Luca is not a vanilla townie", since that's what neopolitan does -- gives positives on vanilla town and negatives on everything else.

But then the simple modifier would prevent this and give "No Result", since that's what the simple modifier does -- give the same result as a roleblocked action if the target is not vanilla town.

If your role is simple neopolitan, and Luca is a scum neighbor, then you would have gotten the result "Luca is not vanilla townie", since that's what neopolitan does.

But the simple modifier would also have kicked in because scum!neighor!Luca is also not vanilla town, so you would have gotten "No Result" there too.

The conclusion is that Luca cannot possibly be a neighbor, either scum or town.

Which means that both Luca and 72 would be lying. Which is possible given that Luca and 72 both made their defenses of each other before Una revealed his simple neopolitan role and thus might not have predicted that Una's role would be one which exactly countered their mutual defense.

Of course, it is also really hard to believe that scum!72 and scum!Luca would defend themselves in this way since it means that lynch of one would then give a guilty on the other. Which would be just about the worst possible association to give as a scum pair. It would mean that you have to win in 5p LYLO and don't even get a 3p LYLO.

But then, why would scum!Una have concocted such a strange and specific fake claim as "simple neopolitan"?

What would be like a huge gambit versus an even huger gambit.

On the other hand ... why would Una claim a guilty on Luca just because he got the result "Luca is not vanilla town" when there is the obvious other possibility that Luca is town with a role?

Luca Blight is scum.
Won't vote anyone else for now.

There is no uncertainty about the above.

[Zantetsu]

Possiblity 1: scum!Una in D1 to set himself up for a fake claim on D2, had all of N1 to think about how he was going to use his fake claim, and then completely screw it up D2.

Possibility 2: scum!Luna defended himself with a fake neighbor claim and scum!72 confirmed it. This is possible but it would be a HUGE gambit.

Possibility 3: mod error

So the choices come down to, Una is an idiot, Luca/72 are idiots, or the mod is an idiot.


But then it doesn't seem possible that town!Una actually is simple neopolitan who got a

[Zantetsu]

Whoops ignore the last sentence of my last post, it was some garbage that I accidentally left in when writing my post.

[Zantetsu]

My bet is on mod error.

[Zantetsu]

Which if true would mod-confirm Una's role as town and if false would mod-confirm that either Una is lying or Luca/72 are lying, with the greater likelihood being Una lying.

@Mod

: can you please confirm that if Una were town simple neopolitan and if Luca were in a neighborhood, then Una would have gotten a "No Result" result on an investigation of Luca?

Color for mod attention since I am not sure the mod actually reads this game.

[Luca Blight]

There's clearly been a mod error, but the way Una has gone about it doesn't sit well with me.

He has a hunch there was an error, but rushes forward to reveal his result anyway? Why not wait for the mod's reply, and why the certainty that I'm scum based on that ambiguous result?

It could be he's trying to use the situation as a 'dumbtell' to be townread. That's a pretty low thing to do but I've seen it happen. I'll wait and see what his explanation is anyway.

[Luca Blight]

I'm also wondering why Una, as Town, would have targeted me anyway? Was he scumreading me D1?

[Zantetsu]

There's clearly been a mod error, but the way Una has gone about it doesn't sit well with me.

Before you claimed neighbor he was making essentially a false guilty claim. Because all he had on you was that you are not vanilla town.

It's only after you claimed neighbor that this mod error possibility arose from his PoV.

I agree that it is a bad look for Una to have claimed a guilty when all he had was that you were not vanilla. But the question then becomes, would scum!Una really fake this guilty so badly? And having faked that claim he'd be on the hook for producing results from it every night which just seems really risky for such a marginal claim.

It just seems more likely that he's town and made a mistake about what his result on you meant although that then implies that he made a huge mistake in understanding his results and how likely is that if he's had two+ weeks to think about his possible actions and what the results would mean?

It's just so effed up all the way around, the entire thing. That's a hard mistake for town!Una to make which then means it's a pretty dumb thing for scum!Una to pretend to have done.

[Zantetsu]

I'm also wondering why Una, as Town, would have targeted me anyway? Was he scumreading me D1?

He of course should answer for himself, but consider that you more or less led the wagon on profii, twice. I personally do not think that is particularly alignment indicative but others might see it that way depending on their predispositions.

[Battle Mage]

Ok well with that somewhat clarified, and in the spirit of the day, I'm claiming as well

I'm a '

PT Cop

', which means I can investigate people and find out if they are in private threads (which presumably is because we have neighbours and scum).

Last night I investigated Zantetsu and he came up positive. Given the claims and his reaction seems pretty unlikely he is a neighbour/mason, so he must be scum.

Vote: Zantetsu

[NorwegianboyEE]

If Zantetsu is scum as Battle Mage claims, it raises the possibility that he is trying to redirect our attention from one of Luca/Una. As evidenced by his "This is probably a mod error" stance.

[Riabi]

If Zantetsu is scum as Battle Mage claims, it raises the possibility that he is trying to redirect our attention from one of Luca/Una. As evidenced by his "This is probably a mod error" stance.

Agreed, and I think this kind of puts us in a holding pattern for the mod to confirm whether or not there was an error, doesn't it?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Zantetsu should claim. In fact i’m starting to wonder if a mass claim wouød be best at this point. Then we can do setup analyzis and find out who is the most believable.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Assuming BM is honest. It seems quite believable that a traffic analyzt guilty on Zantetsu= him being scum. We’ve already got two neighbor claims. So unless there are two neighborhoods in the same game, he is most likely scum.

[Firebringer]

Which if true would mod-confirm Una's role as town and if false would mod-confirm that either Una is lying or Luca/72 are lying, with the greater likelihood being Una lying.

@Mod

: can you please confirm that if Una were town simple neopolitan and if Luca were in a neighborhood, then Una would have gotten a "No Result" result on an investigation of Luca?

Color for mod attention since I am not sure the mod actually reads this game.

I actually do read this game. Anyone who has a question of their role, should pm me.

[NorwegianboyEE]

UNVOTE:
Got to get my bearings straight.

My vote today will most likely be one of Una/Zantetsu. Waiting to see what comes out of this first.

[Battle Mage]

If Zantetsu is scum as Battle Mage claims, it raises the possibility that he is trying to redirect our attention from one of Luca/Una. As evidenced by his "This is probably a mod error" stance.

I'm still not completely sure what the implication of all those claims was. It felt like Una had no reason to claim like that as scum (which is why I was happy to go with it at the outset), and the role seems plausible given other known roles in the game. I have no idea about the neighbour claims...
Although as Zantetsu-scum astutely notes, that's probably just because I'm dumb.

[Battle Mage]

I'm also wondering why Una, as Town, would have targeted me anyway? Was he scumreading me D1?

To be fair, he claims to have gone in order of his list of players he said at the start of the game he could read well. It might not be the best move, but in the context of his play so far, I can definitely buy it.

There's clearly been a mod error, but the way Una has gone about it doesn't sit well with me.

He has a hunch there was an error, but rushes forward to reveal his result anyway? Why not wait for the mod's reply, and why the certainty that I'm scum based on that ambiguous result?

It could be he's trying to use the situation as a 'dumbtell' to be townread. That's a pretty low thing to do but I've seen it happen. I'll wait and see what his explanation is anyway.

On Day 1 he was claiming near-certainty Proffi was town, which in retrospect, seems like a really bad move for someone with an investigative role (who might want to breadcrumb near certainty when they have actual evidence). But if Una was town, the eager claim is pretty much exactly what I'd expect him to do given how he approached Day 1, particularly the latter part of it.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think Churros stated something like "this is one of the weirdest games i've played" earlier. And tbh, i completely agree with that.