Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[Aloratom]

I don't understand what you're getting at here. If two people jump on and lynch Peaches, and she's Town, we get a lot of information out of that.

But I don't get how we get a lot of information if Peach flips as town.

Wagon analysis. Like Humane said, if Peaches flips green, there's a certain probability that at least one mafia is on the wagon now. An early wagon like this with a silent player is an easy one for scum to slide in on unnoticed -- there is built-in reasoning for voting. On Day 2, we would take a look at who was on her wagon, when they joined and under what circumstances they joined. Everyone on the wagon would be under scrutiny. That would narrow down our game solve considerably.

[Aloratom]

A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.

I don't understand what you're getting at here. If two people jump on and lynch Peaches, and she's Town, we get a lot of information out of that.

Having her at L-2 is fine. If 2 people hop on right now and get her lynched we can be pretty sure they're scum, yeah.
Agreeing to lynch her accomplishes nothing, though, as the players then just as well could've been town.
I think this is what he is getting at.

Almost. The players who took her to L-1 and the hammer would be under greater scrutiny, but they wouldn't be auto-scum, although the hammer would be close. My theory on quickhammers in Newbie games is that they almost never happen. Why wait a week or so to catch a game just to get auto-lynched on Day 2? If it's worth it to you for the lulz, that's fine I guess, but I can't see it. I don't know that I've ever seen a quickhammer in a Newbie game.

[Kirari Momobami]

How his posts polarized to town?

In my last game with him, he was scum and had 28 posts by the end of day 1

By the time I made that post, he had 35 posts about 1/3rd of the way through day 1

At this rate he should end with ~70+ posts unless this day gets cut short

Making 2x+ the number of posts he makes as scum at least suggests he *might* be town this game

#mathsisscummy

[3bounty]

Well it doesn't help that the one player peaches is engaging has her on ignore.

[Kirari Momobami]

I see your point, if it exists in a vacuum. That's what I thought at the time too. But what do you think about the context thereafter the post?

I think you coming off as paranoid about someone getting to l-2 in RVS was actually NAI/leaning scum so him switching to you seemed fine

I only got you as town a few pages later

[LuckyLuciano]

Peaches wagon has always been, and still is, a push for activity. 3b randomly coming in and presuming Peaches is today's lynch and publicly abstaining is scummy. Alo trying to pivot the wagon from an activity push (284) to a lynch indirectly by arguing there is value in the lynch (316, 325, 326) is scummy. If you really want people to pressure Peaches for activity, then you don't start justifying the lynch before she meaningfully contributes. If Alo flips red, which he will, then Peaches is green and the other scum is not currently on Peaches wagon. This is true because of Alo's desire to lynch within the wagon when Peaches flips green. Inevitably he would be lynched at some point for being on the wagon as well, but if he gets a second mislynch by pushing people for being on the wagon after he justified it, then it will be 2 town for 1 scum and mafia will only need 1 more mislynch to win.

[LuckyLuciano]

How his posts polarized to town?

In my last game with him, he was scum and had 28 posts by the end of day 1

By the time I made that post, he had 35 posts about 1/3rd of the way through day 1

At this rate he should end with ~70+ posts unless this day gets cut short

Making 2x+ the number of posts he makes as scum at least suggests he *might* be town this game

#mathsisscummy

What game were you in with him?

[Aloratom]

How his posts polarized to town?

In my last game with him, he was scum and had 28 posts by the end of day 1

By the time I made that post, he had 35 posts about 1/3rd of the way through day 1

At this rate he should end with ~70+ posts unless this day gets cut short

Making 2x+ the number of posts he makes as scum at least suggests he *might* be town this game

#mathsisscummy

What game were you in with him?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=82199

[LuckyLuciano]

3b on Alo

Spoiler:

Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.

Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.

Why would they? Isn't denying town information straight up anti-town, or am I missing some philosophy here?

I am sure there are players out there who can play scum and be anti town, but majority of scum would avoid being anti town.

Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.

Can you explain your rationale here more?

I get the notion that scum tends to read the thread more closely, but peaches has been such a non entity it's not like Alo has exactly been punished for skipping a question.

I honestly forgot about peaches until last page

Would scum miss the question? He legit posted 10 mins after the post without answering it. I am not saying it's imossible for scum to do such a thing but less likely.

Alo town - scum would be less likely to ignore questions from other players. He just outright ignored peaches question.

Why would they? Isn't denying town information straight up anti-town, or am I missing some philosophy here?

I am sure there are players out there who can play scum and be anti town, but majority of scum would avoid being anti town.

So it is pretty much just NAI?

No. It is giving me town alignment. I give up on this point. Make of it what you will.

3b seems pretty insistent on defending Alo simply because he missed a question. Is it really that easy to get a townread from 3b? What about all of the questions I didn't answer? Why does this apply only to Alo? Further, his reasoning for townreading Alo is essentially that scum wouldn't play anti-town. The scum wincon is literally anti-town. 3b's reasoning here can be used to townread open-wolfing. It can be used to townread any scum-motivated action. It's incredibly weak, and doesn't support the strength of the read that I'm gathering from his desire to defend Alo.

Hmmmm. Nah sorry can't see it. Alo is probably town. You're correct I played 1994 with him, but I subbed in halfway through day 1, and the game had no day 2 so. Not much content there at all, dont expect me to be an Alo expert, I am just as confused as the rest by some of his posts in here.

Rereading some of InWho22's recent posts, starting to get lamist vibes.

3b admits to being confused by some of Alo's posts. This both should degrade his town read, because he does not understand where Alo is coming from, but also lead him to support my case against Alo, in that I provide reason to believe that the confusion that Alo is causing - which 3b admits he sees as well - is both intentional and scum-motivated. For some reason he blindly holds a townread on Alo. Not only that, but he begins to redirect focus on InWho22 without explaining what he saw that is giving him lamist vibes. It looks more that he's trying to deflect pressure off a scumbuddy than go after InWho22.

Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.

At other points in the game he literally says that there's nothing to be read from the Peaches slot, yet here he scumleans her. Why? Because she targeted Alo in her first post.

3b on Peaches

Spoiler:

Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.

As seen before, 3b believes Peaches may be scum.

InWho22 neutral.

Are you still satisfied with your rvs vote then?

Those aren't meant to be satisfying in the first place. Who is your top scum read and why?

I meant more you haven't changed votes, so the question is do you still think your vote is where it's most effective?

Struggling to find a decent scum read I will change when I do find one. Do you have any scum reads?

4 posts later and he is keeping his vote where it was in RVS because he doesn't have a good alternative. Not only is he scumlean on Peaches, but he believes we need more activity from her. Both of these are consistent with switching his vote to Peaches, and inconsistent with his actual course of action. Afterwards, he deflects back to Kirari, in the same way he deflects from Alo to InWho22 in a later post.

A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.

A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.

I don't understand what you're getting at here. If two people jump on and lynch Peaches, and she's Town, we get a lot of information out of that.

I get nothing, she has made two posts to you, that is what I'd label as not enough information.

These are posts I've already gone over in my prior analysis. The entire wagon on Peaches is for activity. 3b himself said we need more activity from Peaches. Why is her operating under the assumption that we are planning to lynch her? Why is he distancing himself from a wagon that isn't even supposed to be pushing for a lynch, and why is he distancing himself from a wagon that he himself is scumlean on? The scum motive would be to distance himself from ALO, WRT my analysis in a prior post that if Alo is red, his partner is not on the wagon and Alo's play indicates as much.

[LuckyLuciano]

I said I would post less often, but it seems I spammed this page yet again.

Also, this is a whole mood.

[Aloratom]

Why is her operating under the assumption that we are planning to lynch her?

Despite what I think about a lot of your analysis, this is a very good observation. It should have pinged me when I saw it.

[Aloratom]

Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.

Did you get the feeling from Peaches that not making a RVS vote was some sort of alignment tell?

What?

Why did you think Peaches's RVS vote felt somewhat non-random?

Can you answer this, 3bounty? Why did the vote feel non-random to you?

[LuckyLuciano]

Since we're on the topic, why did you decide to elaborate on the value gained from lynching Peaches when you yourself claimed to be on the wagon to pressure for activity? If 3b pivoting the wagon from an activity push to a possible lynch is a reason for players to be pinged on him, then you doing the same thing should be a reason for players to be pinged on you. No double standards, my friend.

[LuckyLuciano]

Disappearing under pressure was supposed to be my shtick this game. It was too boring for me to commit to. How are you holding up, Alo?

[Aloratom]

Since we're on the topic, why did you decide to elaborate on the value gained from lynching Peaches when you yourself claimed to be on the wagon to pressure for activity? If 3b pivoting the wagon from an activity push to a possible lynch is a reason for players to be pinged on him, then you doing the same thing should be a reason for players to be pinged on you. No double standards, my friend.

In 299, 3bounty said there was no information to be gained from a lynch. In 300, Humane mentioned not lynching Peaches for inactivity, and in 302 Humane essentially said that if there is a lynch, there's scum on the current wagon. In 316, I responded to 3bounty that if a lynch happened, there was, indeed, information to be gained. Both 3bounty and Yooh asked what kind of information (321 & 323). InWho and I both expounded on that (324, 325, 326). It seemed prudent to address the question because the notion of a lynch had been raised and no one had tackled his question. I could have disregarded it and let someone else answer it I suppose.

I understand what your point is with regard to me, but I think your glasses are tinted by our exchange last night.

[Aloratom]

Must have just missed him.

[3bounty]

I gave that post about peaches giving me no info because I was considering to change my vote to her, it was more thinking out loud.

[Kirari Momobami]

(expired on 2020-04-13 02:44:17) until peaches prod

this is my poe, it's this or pushing holden I guess

[Aloratom]

Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.

Did you get the feeling from Peaches that not making a RVS vote was some sort of alignment tell?

What?

Why did you think Peaches's RVS vote felt somewhat non-random?

Can you answer this, 3bounty? Why did the vote feel non-random to you?

VOTE: 3bounty

[3bounty]

@Alo I answered that question, but for someone who actually ignores questions to scum read for that, is the most hypocritical thing I've seen on site so far.

[3bounty]

VOTE: Aloratom last post day 1. Lynch me or Alo, I'm done giving him the benefit of the doubt.

[Aloratom]

@Alo I answered that question, but for someone who actually ignores questions to scum read for that, is the most hypocritical thing I've seen on site so far.

Can you point me to where you answered it?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Anyone spell it out for me why 3bounty is scum? I'm honestly reading him as town here.

[Kirari Momobami]

VOTE: Aloratom last post day 1. Lynch me or Alo, I'm done giving him the benefit of the doubt.

I have no idea what I missed but this is bad posting regardless of alignment

[3bounty]

@Alo I answered that question, but for someone who actually ignores questions to scum read for that, is the most hypocritical thing I've seen on site so far.

Can you point me to where you answered it?

Yes I can. Can you point out to me where you answered peaches?