Mini Normal 2125: Chiptune Mafia [The End]

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Post Post #2250 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:10 am

Post by Aloratom »

I'm VT by the way.
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Post Post #2251 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:41 am

Post by Taly »

I genuinely don't know I can read this game without getting angry anymore.

Eye
has 0 to gain from claiming as scum here.
Alo
is probably one of the most genuine solvers in the game and I buy that VT claim of his.
Churros
is a bit less sure of as town but the push on him is so abhorrent he's probably town anyway.
S_S
is more certainly not groupscum, I don't know if I buy the VT claim but that's not exactly scum-indicative, not feeling as top lynch.
Battle Mage
is doing whatever he can to protect
Paragon
while breaking down any other townreads and is focusing on associatives instead of hard scumreads. Also their emoji's make light of genuine issues that I'm giving right now, it's a mockery of me.
Paragon
is the only person that makes sense as 100% concrete scum, both by their D3 posts here - potential slips, awkward read progressions, and the fact that
Blake/Pops
were his NKed public shields that he doesn't need anymore because
Aloratom/Churros
probably fulfills that role aligns most with the gamestate I could envision scum wanting to win this game in. Also, he keeps referencing
Blake's
reads as the word of a diety but isn't actually following her logic.

I'm not doing this for 10 days. These are my reads.

This entire game I've been dismissed or misrepresented, and this can't all just be a problem with me anymore.

People can talk through me the game but if a vote happens on the bottom 2 of my reads, I'm jumping on the wagon.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
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Post Post #2252 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:42 am

Post by Taly »

I'm signing off. I'll get to people at some point, not saying when.
"Taly is going to be a hot mess all game and I am entertained" ~ Gammagooey
"The human race is bad at reading Taly." ~the worst
"Taly I knew your slot was scum and I still struggled to find arguments to SR your play lol" ~Infinity 324
"Taly wins for the most fence-sitty reads in a game ever" ~Battle Mage
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Post Post #2253 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:24 am

Post by Paragon »

Taly, I'd love to see you point out these "potential slips". I'm not treating the words of Blake Belladonna as a deity, but I'm putting weight into her and Luca's reads, and thinking about why they were nightkilled.

I'm seriously entertaining a Taly, Something_Smart, and Battle Mage team for these reasons:
  • Battle Mage hard scumreads Taly but has logicked a way into always voting for someone else before he votes Taly today.
  • Something_Smart has had Taly as his top town for a while, and earlier today was suggesting Taly was "wrong" over him possibly being scum.
  • Taly's been seriously mudslinging me today, trying to find any reason possible to implicate me as scum. If you actually look over his reasons you'll see what I mean.
Something_Smart, could you elaborate on your Taly read please?

Also, I would love to vote Taly after Churros claims and nothing changes, but I know town!eyestott would vote me over him, which makes this situation very problematic.
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Post Post #2254 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:32 am

Post by Paragon »

Of note: I did look through Taly's scumgames and I didn't find a single instance of ALL-CAPS raging there. However, the fact Taly is aware of this meta and made a self-meta case earlier in this game means scum!him is far more likely to manipulate it to his benefit in this game.
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Post Post #2255 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:34 am

Post by Paragon »



Waiting for your return, Churros!
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Post Post #2256 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:25 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2249, Aloratom wrote:
In post 2247, Battle Mage wrote:Aloratom, what do you think about Churros, Taly and Polygon?
Okay, this is from skimming today's posts and isn't very well thought out.

Taly I've had a pretty consistent Town read on, although Day 2 I questioned his outrage at Day start, and he's done the same today to a certain extent. I'm not sure what to make of that. I don't think that a bulletproof claim necessarily clears him, but I lean toward it being so. I guess I need to read more about your scum read of him because no one, I believe, has had a strong scum read on him yet. I don't know whether your take has legs.
In and of itself, I can't see the bulletproof claim as meaning much. Easy for scum to claim gated bulletproof as a plausible claim which is unlikely to be countered or disproven once the vigilante is dead. Is it feasible in the current setup with what's been claimed? Absolutely possible yes.

I haven't done a meta analysis of Taly - to be fair I think that's asking too much for me replacing in at this stage into an incredibly difficult situation. I may give some examples of Taly looking scummy for reference, but if you haven't picked up on it during the game it doesn't achieve much. Perhaps there's some value in being new to the game and having an outsider's perspective, and also playing a few games simultaneously I think my reads are improving. Touch wood I guess.... :giggle:

And it's not quite true nobody has suspected Taly - Churros had a scumread on Taly for ages, but never been motivated enough to get him lynched.

Generally speaking I think anger is pretty null - plenty of townies and scum get angry for no reason, it's more a reflection of their own personalities.
In post 2249, Aloratom wrote: Churros repped in for an inactive slot, and I have had difficulty reading him since he started. His Day 2 was interesting. I think that he and Blake had similar reads (I need to check that), except that for some reason he was voting her. All in all, in retrospect I think Blake's reads have been pretty strong, but she was wrong on NDMath, as was I. But she Town read Churros and they were both scum reading Something_Smart Day 2, who Churros ended up voting. Right now Churros has more Town equity to me than he did before.
This is fair and helpful. Interesting that Fuzzy (Day 1 lynch) was convinced Churros was scum. I'm finding it hard to look past a Churros-Taly scumpair because it's almost too obvious, but I'm probably being tunnel-visioned, and then there's a question on who the 3rd one would be. I can't believe there isn't scum between yourself, Paragon and Eyestott. As bad as town has been this game, I think scum would have been quite happy being on the lynch-wagons, so I'm assuming at least 1 scum each day.
In post 2249, Aloratom wrote: Paragon I've had a hard time getting over his initial tricks, and that still carries some weight. But since then, I get more of a genuine tone from him. There was something that I read today that I need to go back and look at that makes me question him. He was even more convinced of NDMath!scum than I, I believe. In fact, I think both he and I ended Day 1 with votes on him. I've actually got a Town lean on him.

The problem with this is I'm getting too many Town leans right now and not enough players. Today's posts from what I can see have been tremendously scattered. I can't follow everyone's lines of thought. You have a significant number of posts that differ in tone and structure from your predecessors, and that needs to be examined. In addition, there are a lot of accusations flying back and forth. It's hard to keep up.
I definitely don't have the problem of too many town-leans! As above, if you believe Paragon is town, surely you must feel Eyestott is scum(or me actually!)? Or you think the scum hesitated to lynch a townie yesterday and take the game to LYLO? I can't see why they would bother being coy, when it was really there for the taking...

I definitely think given the claims, assuming 3 scum is safe, so of the 6 players which aren't yourself (if you're town), 50% are scum.

Thanks for the analysis, it's useful! :cool:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2257 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:26 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2254, Paragon wrote:Of note: I did look through Taly's scumgames and I didn't find a single instance of ALL-CAPS raging there. However, the fact Taly is aware of this meta and made a self-meta case earlier in this game means scum!him is far more likely to manipulate it to his benefit in this game.
Yes this is logical. I do feel less inclined to check someone's meta when they are directing me to do so as a defence of their play. :yawn:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2258 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:33 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2253, Paragon wrote:Something_Smart, could you elaborate on your Taly read please?
It's pretty hard. But I'll try.

I think the simplest way to say it is this. Most scum players don't like to make things deliberately harder for themselves. This is distinct from WIFOM, because with WIFOM, you do something towny-looking in order to get trusted from it. With making things hard on yourself, you make your job harder without really any upside. Although Taly puts a fantastic amount of effort into the game as either alignment, I haven't seen him do this as scum. But if he's scum here, he put tons of time and energy into trying to reevaluate players to come to a consensus that was mostly right, while being almost completely ignored.

Why does he do that as scum? Most people skip walls. He had to urge us over and over to even read the whole thing, for every wall he posted. And most of them contained conclusions that were right, and it's not like we would be like "wow Taly you're so brilliant and towny", we'd be like "fine I'll move my vote, but why did you make me read this."
Shame on a martyr claiming friends
From either perspective of &
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Post Post #2259 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:35 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2253, Paragon wrote:Taly, I'd love to see you point out these "potential slips". I'm not treating the words of Blake Belladonna as a deity, but I'm putting weight into her and Luca's reads, and thinking about why they were nightkilled.
I think it's interesting that Paragon and Aloratom are both putting weight into Blake's reads. Greatly increases the likelihood that Blake was killed in order to set up a kill today based on his/her suspects. Obviously convenient for them both as neither of them were high on Blake's radar from recollection.

Personally, I'm not going to put much stock into that when scum are 1 mislynch away from victory, and could easily have orchestrated anything with their NK.
In post 2253, Paragon wrote: I'm seriously entertaining a Taly, Something_Smart, and Battle Mage team for these reasons:
  • Battle Mage hard scumreads Taly but has logicked a way into always voting for someone else before he votes Taly today.
  • Something_Smart has had Taly as his top town for a while, and earlier today was suggesting Taly was "wrong" over him possibly being scum.
  • Taly's been seriously mudslinging me today, trying to find any reason possible to implicate me as scum. If you actually look over his reasons you'll see what I mean.
Something_Smart, could you elaborate on your Taly read please?

Also, I would love to vote Taly after Churros claims and nothing changes, but I know town!eyestott would vote me over him, which makes this situation very problematic.
If that's the full extent of your Something_Smart and Taly connection, at this stage of the game, I think it's pretty weak.

I think the suspicion on me is fair, although it's just the reality of the situation - we need to find 3 scum, not just 1, and every lynch has to be right. But the odds today are pretty good if you don't get influenced by scum.

I don't think you need to convince me Taly might be scum. :giggle:

The rest of your post is interesting. Hopefully everyone (town-side) is reasonably careful today.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2260 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:37 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Hypothetically, if you're scum who is trying to justify why they are not being night-killed, despite being very influential and loud in the game, isn't a bulletproof the perfect gambit for that?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2261 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:38 am

Post by Battle Mage »

^Not relevant actually, with the death of a vig beforehand.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2262 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:49 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2251, Taly wrote:I genuinely don't know I can read this game without getting angry anymore.

Eye
has 0 to gain from claiming as scum here.
Alo
is probably one of the most genuine solvers in the game and I buy that VT claim of his.
Churros
is a bit less sure of as town but the push on him is so abhorrent he's probably town anyway.
S_S
is more certainly not groupscum, I don't know if I buy the VT claim but that's not exactly scum-indicative, not feeling as top lynch.
Battle Mage
is doing whatever he can to protect
Paragon
while breaking down any other townreads and is focusing on associatives instead of hard scumreads. Also their emoji's make light of genuine issues that I'm giving right now, it's a mockery of me.
Paragon
is the only person that makes sense as 100% concrete scum, both by their D3 posts here - potential slips, awkward read progressions, and the fact that
Blake/Pops
were his NKed public shields that he doesn't need anymore because
Aloratom/Churros
probably fulfills that role aligns most with the gamestate I could envision scum wanting to win this game in. Also, he keeps referencing
Blake's
reads as the word of a diety but isn't actually following her logic.

I'm not doing this for 10 days. These are my reads.

This entire game I've been dismissed or misrepresented, and this can't all just be a problem with me anymore.

People can talk through me the game but if a vote happens on the bottom 2 of my reads, I'm jumping on the wagon.
If Taly is town and posted this, it's a terrible post. Because it basically tells the scum that they can wagon me or Paragon and secure the victory.

I can't believe Taly-town would make such a big blunder, right!? :eek:

In terms of the content itself, the stuff about me isn't even right, which is a bit pathetic when I've only been here for a few pages... :facepalm:
Baffled by the lack of town-logic - Taly is a beneficiary in some respects of an associative approach, because if we lynched the scummiest player today, it would be him. In a perverse way, the fact Taly is criticising logic which increases his own chances of survival actually makes me think he could be town who has the lost the plot.

I can't really believe that 90 pages into the game, with the town needing to find 3 scum, Taly is unable to come up with more than 2 potential scumreads, and 1 of those is based on being upset about the use of emojis. :facepalm:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2263 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:56 am

Post by Battle Mage »

I'm struggling a little with the idea of Eyestott being town. His ISO makes for pretty grim reading. And despite being on both town mislynches, he has only once voted for somebody who isn't now confirmed town - Taly, in the RVS.

I do also think with all these vanilla townie claims, it's slightly unlikely that scum didn't foresee a mass claim being possible today, and I can't imagine they wouldn't have given some consideration of what they might claim. So in that way, I'd be surprised if all scum are claiming vanilla today - I would think they'd have come up with something more exciting than that.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2264 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:33 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Ok so my feeling is it could be:

Churros-Taly-Eyestott

or

Aloratom-Paragon & 1 of Churros/Something Smart. I find it hard to not put Churros in that spot, as otherwise we'd be saying there was no scum on the Day 1 lynchwagon. Although I think it's more likely more scum on Day 2 as there would be less need to avoid being seen on the wagon. But if Churros was scum, surely Taly would have to be scum too right....

If Eyestott is town, an Aloratom-Paragon pairing is much more likely, which in turn reduces the chances of Taly-scum.

Damn, I'm going round in circles here... :?

I feel like Something_Smart is probably the least likely to be in the scumteam and therefore least likely to be the right lynch for today.

Need to think more...
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2265 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:14 am

Post by Paragon »

In post 2145, eyestott wrote:I agree with you. There was a shift in paragon yesterday that I noticed but didn’t draw attention to. When I get home from the shops I’ll see if I can find it.
Can you show us what you mean please?
In post 2150, eyestott wrote:I think it's almost impossible that Para and S_S are both town.
Why?
In post 2219, eyestott wrote:Random question. Am I allowed to record and post a video instead of typing a post?
I believe so! What do you have in mind?
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Post Post #2266 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:19 am

Post by Paragon »

In post 2258, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 2253, Paragon wrote:Something_Smart, could you elaborate on your Taly read please?
It's pretty hard. But I'll try.

I think the simplest way to say it is this. Most scum players don't like to make things deliberately harder for themselves. This is distinct from WIFOM, because with WIFOM, you do something towny-looking in order to get trusted from it. With making things hard on yourself, you make your job harder without really any upside. Although Taly puts a fantastic amount of effort into the game as either alignment, I haven't seen him do this as scum. But if he's scum here, he put tons of time and energy into trying to reevaluate players to come to a consensus that was mostly right, while being almost completely ignored.

Why does he do that as scum? Most people skip walls. He had to urge us over and over to even read the whole thing, for every wall he posted. And most of them contained conclusions that were right, and it's not like we would be like "wow Taly you're so brilliant and towny", we'd be like "fine I'll move my vote, but why did you make me read this."
This actually makes a lot of sense, and is the best reason to townread Taly I've seen so far.

However, despite the NDMath's towncase EoD 1, Taly doesn't push anyone as an alternate lynch to NDMath. Through the entirety of Day 2, he only momentarily votes eyestott to prompt him to do things. Do you think that's indicative of him not caring about NDMath's mislynch going through?
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Post Post #2267 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:19 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Paragon, what the fuck is this?>
In post 197, Paragon wrote:
In post 180, Taly wrote:Ame, what makes you feel so confident that Pops is scum? Is this meta?
Thank you for asking this. I must admit it was all part of my masterplan to hint at someone else to ask Ame about her popsofctown read.

For those who don't understand what this questioning quota is;
I will now fullclaim:

At the beginning of the game, I started with a quota of questions I could ask other players.
Every time I ask a question, the number goes down by 1.
Every time I answer another player's question, the number goes up by 1.

My quota is currently at 1 since I recently answered a question from Taly. I will be using my questions more wisely. I also encourage people to ask me more questions so that I can replenish my quota.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2268 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:21 am

Post by Paragon »

Churros, get in here with a claim!!!! I want to say certain things but I won't until I've seen one.
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Post Post #2269 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:24 am

Post by Paragon »

Oh no.
You've stumbled across that, have you? I'll give you the summary:
  • Claimed it as joke and for fun.
  • Some took it seriously. Some didn't.
  • People realised post restrictions were forbidden in Normals.
  • I didn't let up and maintained the restriction was true.
  • People started scumreading me for it.
  • I admitted it was all a joke.
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Post Post #2270 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:25 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Paragon wrote:
Oh no.
You've stumbled across that, have you? I'll give you the summary:
  • Claimed it as joke and for fun.
  • Some took it seriously. Some didn't.
  • People realised post restrictions were forbidden in Normals.
  • I didn't let up and maintained the restriction was true.
  • People started scumreading me for it.
  • I admitted it was all a joke.
Excellent.

In other news, I have decided
Paragon and Eyestott cannot both be scum, but 1 probably is
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2271 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:32 am

Post by Paragon »

In post 2270, Battle Mage wrote: In other news, I have decided
Paragon and Eyestott cannot both be scum, but 1 probably is
What brought on this
Enlightenment
?
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Post Post #2272 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:39 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Damnit, it's you isn't it Paragon? Who are your buddies!?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2273 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:41 am

Post by Battle Mage »

This game is stressful as hell. If Churros is scum, and we don't lynch him today, I'll feel like a complete idiot.

Yeah a Churros claim could be really helpful.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2274 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:55 am

Post by Battle Mage »

One big problem is, if Taly is town, and Paragon is scum, we can't win anyway, because Taly would lynch me tomorrow after Paragon today. :facepalm:
Or Taly would lynch me first today which means we lose straight away. Or Paragon is town and we lose today anyway.

So basically, because of Taly's position, town can't win if Taly is town. So we're in a shitty corner where Taly has to be scum for us to have any hope.

Damn.

I have a very uneasy feeling about this, but there's no other option unfortunately. And I suppose mathematically there's a 50-50 chance... :facepalm:

My actual prediction, for what it's worth, is:

Paragon-Aloratom-Something_Smart
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
Locked