mini 2126: the game is OVRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[northsidegal]

I didn't get any chance to gloat yesterday, so the opportunity's already lost. Serious business only from here out, unfortunately.

[Eddie Cane]

Wanna give where you're at?

[northsidegal]

Wanna give where you're at?

Eddie, Nero, Penguin, SS. For me, the last scum is two in these four. We have an entire game's worth of content to look back on, claims to analyze, and flips to use. I think that we should spend just as much time today as we did Day 2, and not doing so would be throwing the game almost as hard as if Comical were fakeclaiming.

[northsidegal]

The only other person I was considering checking was you.

Why would I check someone who's guiltied or someone who has a confirmed PR?

Among the first things I want to say is that I find the bolded fairly surprising coming from SS, and just a little bit unbelievable.

There are plenty of reasons that a 1-shot rolecop would have checked anyone besides me. Penguin, to actually see what his role is because he's never officially claimed it and there could easily be other components to it beyond just being a fruit vendor. Eddie, to see if Comical was telling the truth or faking a guilty—given both who he is and that he

literally said he would have a guilty

the day before, the possibility is not unlikely. Nero Cain, to see if RCE was telling the truth in response to Comical claiming a gunsmith check on him or if it was a hastily-constructed fakeclaim.

Honestly, I can see far more

scum

utility in checking me over anyone else: it denies town information, if the 1-shot rolecop is fake in the first place then I am probably the least likely to have lied about my role, and if scum would like me dead over e.g. Luna, then it provides a convenient excuse to do so.

[northsidegal]

That being said, the crumb is evidence in favor of him actually being a 1-shot RC, town or scum. The possibility that it was faked in advance is pretty complex and requires some assumptions, so I think it makes sense right now to believe that he's actually a 1-shot RC. Unless someone knows of SS faking crumbs like that before as scum, that's probably what I'm going to go with.

[northsidegal]

@Schadd, if a mafia power role were absent, would you allow the other members of the mafia to control the shot regardless?

And if that were true, can we assume that you return information from Mafia roles in the Mafia PT rather than by PM?

[Eddie Cane]

We have the same PoE, roughly. Are you past considering Alch, then?

[northsidegal]

Might be residual bias based on his approach to me and his approach in general, currently think he's less likely than all of those four. I don't think that reviewing the game will change my mind on him but it's possible that it could.

[Eddie Cane]

I think I always want SS or Nero today, by the way. PP would be my compromise lynch. Because I think at least one of SS and Nero have to be scum. We lost a lynch (and checks) due to Boon though, so a PoE of 3 is sketchy (4 from your pov if you're considering me).

re Alch: He's a had a lot of townier moments throughout the game, but some awkward posts / trajectories day 2. Going for the unvote and pocket on me is weird if maf, and pursuing a lynch on Dany over elsewhere (Eddie / NSG). Also, not taking the free mislynch thanks to anchor Boon.

[northsidegal]

Why is Penguin only your compromise lynch? My not elaborating on my vote is deliberate, but I will say that it's interesting to me how he has basically not been mentioned in the slightest today, and to my memory not yesterday either.

[Eddie Cane]

I think your slot could specifically find me town despite Boon, with your predecessor's read on me + how I handled EoD2. Assuming you're town and I'm not a donkey. Alch I am partly sheeping your read. I think the scummiest thing about him is that Auro / Alch felt like TvS and I could easily be wrong about that. I don't really care to reevaluate Luna I don't think. PP has been nothingburger all game, and SS not wanting to instakill (or check!) Nero is befuddling.

[Eddie Cane]

Oh, that wasn't even a reply to 4909. Its because he's the slot I think is the least townie outside of Nero / SS, so he's a fine lynch. But mechanically, I believe there has to be a minimum of 1 scum in SS and Nero, hence, wanting to kill in there first. PP being my third lynch at this point.

[Nero Cain]

I mean, Eddie isn't wrong. There

IS

one scum in me and SS. Its just not me so by default its SS. There's also 1 scum in Eddie, Alch, and NSG and I lean Eddie there.

For me, 1-shot RC is so low powered that I think it seems pretty fake. NSG says the crumbs make it believable but I think a scum SS is plenty capable of fake crumbs.

If SS were scum it means that town is a 6x GS, even nigh GS, 3x jailkeep, a voyeur and fruit vendor. If SS were town then town would be 6x GS, even nigh GS, 3x jailkeep, 1x rolecop and 1 of voyeur or fruit vendor. Unless its the 6/4 town split like I originally thought.

I'm with Alch here and not 100% sure if Boon really did check him but guy did shit all the majority of the game and didn't hammer idany so he's the least townie here in the vts

[Eddie Cane]

guy did shit all the majority of the game

This really isn't true though? Day 1, sure, but I was the most active slot the second part of day 2.

[Eddie Cane]

Also, why is PP not a consideration?

[Nero Cain]

I mean, as long as we hit scum today, which I think we will as long as we lynch in Eddie/SS then there's a ML left tomorrow we could always just lynch me to get rid of any residual feelings that my slot is scum and lynch whomever is left between SS and Eddie and town win YAY!

[Nero Cain]

Also, why is PP not a consideration?

Why is PP a consideration?

I have my reasons that I can elaborate on anytime I feel like it.

But I'm more interested in you. NSG mentions PP and you just kinda hopped to attention and it felt pretty opportunistic. Can you quote me where you talked about thinking PP is scum?

[Eddie Cane]

NSG mentions PP and you just kinda hopped to attention and it felt pretty opportunistic. Can you quote me where you talked about thinking PP is scum?

I think this is the opposite since I literally said its a compromise lynch? I think NSG, Luna, and Alch are townier. I think PP has not been townie, I don't have any individual reason to scum read him past him being active in other games while ignoring this one. I don't understand him being discluded from your list of considerations.

[Eddie Cane]

I mean, as long as we hit scum today, which I think we will as long as we lynch in Eddie/SS then there's a ML left tomorrow we could always just lynch me to get rid of any residual feelings that my slot is scum and lynch whomever is left between SS and Eddie and town win YAY!

Statements like this don't really gel with what you're posting, though? Offering yourself up as a lynch implies a very high level of confidence, but your other posting is more eh, I think Eddie's the scum. This doesn't account for error.

[Nero Cain]

I think you and SS are much scummier.

[Eddie Cane]

kinda hopped to attention and it felt pretty opportunisti

Why is Penguin only your compromise lynch?

These are both things I've been asked in the last page.

[Eddie Cane]

I think you and SS are much scummier.

Sure. This doesn't explain why PP is not a consideration but NSG and Alch are.

[Nero Cain]

they are? when did I say that?

[Eddie Cane]

SS also pushed me intensely day 2, got upset I was being unvoted and defended (by Auro, confirmed town), and voted me several times. And is voting me today. So that team solve is pretty janky.

[Eddie Cane]

they are? when did I say that?

There's also 1 scum in Eddie, Alch, and NSG and I lean Eddie there.