mini 2126: the game is OVRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PenguinPower]

mine

[northsidegal]

I was thinking something along the lines of
"PP had to give fruit N2 so SS couldnt RC, and since SS RC'd N3, PP had to make the kill so he didnt send fruit".

I mean, that's entirely possible.

But PP claimed a full role so doesnt your meta say that if he's scum he has to be multitasking? or are you saying he's gated and lying about it?
IF ONLY we had someone that could check people's roles.
Oh wait... Kappa

schadd

tends

to give full mafia roles multitasking, as dany had. In mini normal 2055 designed by schadd, there was a mafia even-night neighborizer odd-night fruit vendor, no multitasking (although, to be fair, this is the only instance of this happening, as far as i can tell, so this is really a singular exception to a rule that otherwise holds fairly well).

-shrug-

it's fairly unfortunate for town that nobody received fruit today, is my main conclusion, i think.

[Luna Fox]

I also dont think im gonna rest easy until EC gets resolved.
But sometimes he makes some posts that make me go "Is this really scum?"

[northsidegal]

Don't get me wrong, Eddie is not off the hook today in any sense. I get that my posting so far might make it seem like I think he is, so just to be clear—he isn't.

I just think that we need to take today to actually review things, as a contingency I guess?

[Luna Fox]

I feel like everytime stuff happens in here my scum pool increases when im trying to narrow it down X_X

[northsidegal]

It's interesting to me that Auro was killed over you—who most people seem to take as a universal townread—especially given that you are a power role and Auro is not.

I think it's probably weak evidence in favor of Eddie and SS being scum (not together, mind you, but evidence individually towards both).

[Alchemist21]

I like the theory that SS and Penguin had to take turns making the kill.

[Something_Smart]

That totally squares with the multitasking scum flip.

[PenguinPower]

I like sarcastic S_S

[northsidegal]

it's a compelling narrative but it requires some assumptions

you either have to believe that schadd did not give a mafia fruit vendor multitasking or that there's some aspect of penguin's role that he's lying about (e.g. he's an even-night roleblocker odd-night fruit vendor, or something)

[Alchemist21]

2 assumptions to work with here:

- 1 scum is in Nero/SS

- Nero and Eddie are never scum together.

Lynching SS today solves the game if the assumptions are correct. If he flips Town then Nero is scum and Penguin is the partner. If SS flips scum then Nero is Town and we can lynch in the order of Penguin/Eddie and for sure hit the remaining partner.

If everyone agrees on those assumptions then SS should be the lynch today.

[PenguinPower]

people who say the game is solved are dumb absent an actual mechanical solve

there's a guilty

start there

[northsidegal]

i think that i'm coming back around to my old old conclusion of "the gunsmiths are probably the same alignment"

[northsidegal]

i think it might be eddie / ss

does that make sense?

[northsidegal]

is there any reason for nero cain to not check penguinpower tonight?

[Eddie Cane]

Alright enjoy losing whoever's town, good luck

[Eddie Cane]

I guess there's no point in being annoyed at the town alive, because Boon took what was basically a free town win (he was the gunsmith I at least thought was town, narrowed PoE, scum lynch day 2) and harpooned it. This is just going to be my first loss in site since I think 2018, which is a little disappointing, and while I didn't take the game seriously I still think it was a pretty easy game.

[northsidegal]

assuming you're town, why are you suddenly sure town will lose?

[Eddie Cane]

i think that i'm coming back around to my old old conclusion of "the gunsmiths are probably the same alignment"

Not impossible with a scum rolecop.

- Nero and Eddie are never scum together.

I am going to assume this is an assumption and target the SS assumption.

is there any reason for nero cain to not check penguinpower tonight?

I think if we lynch SS, the check should be hinged on the flips. If SS flips mafia, the odds of Nero being town shoot up and I am a good check. I am never being night killed this game, and it takes a lynch off the table. If SS flips town, maf!Nero would win a 1v1 against me with Boon harpooning the game, so Nero should check PP I believe. If you believe Boon's check, I cannot be a mafia doctor, and if you do not believe Boon's check then I am back to being town regardless. Mafia choosing to kill a town!Nero is as good as a gunsmith check. Does this make sense?

[Eddie Cane]

assuming you're town, why are you suddenly sure town will lose?

Suddenly sure? I don't think that's true. But because I have a PoE of 3, and there are two not-me kills, and I am not confident about the PoE to begin with. I have not seen town come back from 5 player lylo on this site many times.

[Alchemist21]

is there any reason for nero cain to not check penguinpower tonight?

I can’t really think of one. Nero/SS would still need to be resolved today though because there’s still the possibility of scum Nero bussing Penguin if Town Eddie gets lynched today.

[Eddie Cane]

2 assumptions to work with here:

- 1 scum is in Nero/SS

- Nero and Eddie are never scum together.

Lynching SS today solves the game if the assumptions are correct. If he flips Town then Nero is scum and Penguin is the partner. If SS flips scum then Nero is Town and we can lynch in the order of Penguin/Eddie and for sure hit the remaining partner.

If everyone agrees on those assumptions then SS should be the lynch today.

Let me walk through my process here.

I am partly taking my own town lean on Alch, along with NSG's read. If Alch is scum, his play today is pretty unnecessary. This hinges on NSG not being scum with Alch, but for NSG to be scum with Alch then SS and Nero and PP would all have to be town, and the game is lost anyways,

and

I independently town lean NSG.

Luna is the hinge factor. That said, I think Luna is town. This read is lowkey sheeping Oka and Boon and a bit of how Luna handled her role, I've never played with her and she's pretty nothingburger. But Luna being mafia is a potential loss vector. I think its partly coverable, actually, which I'll get into.

I think I am clearly not with SS, which I'll make a post on after this. But let's assume you can only clear me from being with Nero, not with SS.

Lynch SS. If SS flips town, then yes, the team is probably Nero Penguin. Here is the world we potentially lose to Luna, and of course NSG or Alch - though maf will have to night kill someone. But Nero scum flip should lead to an Eddie night kill, so it probably won't be my problem.

Lynch SS. If SS flips scum, then I have to defend myself. But this is actually probably more winnable. Mafia Nero will have to claim a green check on myself or Penguin, and we probably lynch the not-green-checked one. If PP is town, f3 is with 2 of Nero/NSG/Alch/Luna, which is not bad odds.

With an

Eddie

lynch, the game becomes much harder, and it is feeling like I'll be lynched based on the last thread page, which is part of what makes me upset. SS doesn't even seem to be considering Nero and himself as a 1v1, and yet, he's not pushing any other reads. I don't enjoy how Nero plays and he thinks about the game in a silly way. So I'm not sure what happens after an Eddie lynch, one of NSG Alch Luna die and its probably not salvageable.

[Alchemist21]

If Luna is scum it means Dany claimed VT at L-1 only for his partner to claim his role later in the Day for no reason. That’s not something I can see scum doing.

[Eddie Cane]

Not all of these aged well, but I think its pretty clear I'm not with an SS Dany team? I had a lengthy interaction with SS explaining why I'm not with Dany...

Spoiler:

Do you want the wifom rebuttal or the mechanical rebuttal?

I want you to stop spitting out garbage and engage with us on a level that we can actually understand.

And it's not that I don't understand what you're trying to say, you're just not giving any evidence or reasoning apart from WIFOM, and even if people's reads are random on average, good evidence and good reasoning still exists and is still possible to give.

What you said about Dany is on that level, and it's about the only thing you said that is. So I want you to continue to talk on that level, whatever that entails.

"Reads" are bad. Tone, flow, individual post, content, whatever - reads are bad. You can keep playing with them because its more fun - I do! But reads are bad. What I am spitting out is "wifom" as much as the fact literally anything in a game is wifom. Handwaving shit away as wifom is how scum dismiss true statements and how town loses games.

The wifom argument is if you think me as scum with anybody in this game except Boon would be okay being bussed, that's laughable.

Imagine the world with me and Dany. My above post explains the PRs. I will explain again. If I am scum with one of the PRs refer to the below post. If I am scum, I have both PRs pocketed - RCE and Comical both town read me and have defended me vocally. This makes bussing me bad! The people with swing and power in the game are aligned with me. Bussing me, if both of them are town, is actually donkey. Dany has the perfect reason to not vote me - I did not hammer him! In contrast, Oka, one of his biggest pushers, is a major wagon. If he gets the bus off me, he gets by far the least credit, compared to Oka and SS and probably Auro too (at the time). Instead, he makes the person who previously strongly scum read him, Oka, almost confirmed town, kills a scum partner who was not very widely scum read, and is still scum read by several people (even if that will lighten up a little with the bus vote). Bussing needlessly is a fuckin site trend. You need to consider state of the game. And, if we are trying to distance, then I didn't meaningfully push him all game or even comment on him, so that still doesn't make sense? Because I'm not actively distancing him. And also, if Dany is bussing he's playing for late game, but he's clearly not that invested here with the Ellitell on him.

A lot of that logic applies to Luna, but she's a more reasonable slot to think could be sneaking a bus vote in, even though I think that exact reasoning is why thinking she's a bus vote is still bad.

I can't tell if you're scum who's frustrated people are town reading me when you feel I shouldn't be town read, or town who is tunnelled because you're a mechanical player and get frustrated with level 5 reads. If its the latter, and you dismiss this post as WIFOM, I can only do so much.

I mean, I'm still cleared off the Fire nightkill, but people don't do NKA so let's move past that. I think Flavor knows this and its part of why he's town reading me, though.

I don't think any of those assumptions matter though. I will try rephrasing

again

, and this will probably be my last time because I think even the fact I'm arguing this point this hard and like this virtually never happens S/S so I'm not with Dany

anyways

.
Fact: in the current game state, both claimed PRs town read me and have defended me two days in a row.
Fact: in the current game state, iDanyboy is fairly widely scum read, having got to l-1 twice in the last phase.
Let's go through all four worlds:

1) We are both town: I correctly chose not to lolhammer him. I am town; this world is irrelevant.
2) He is scum, I am town: I incorrectly chose to not meme hammer a second day in a row. I am town; this world is irrelevant.
I know the world is one of those two. Let's continue to worlds 3 and 4
3) I am scum, he is town: then we go back to my point that I have very few partners, and we can argue why I'm not with somebody else!

4) We are both scum: in this world, I have a few directions. I can hammer Dany one of the two times. This looks good for me, and I have an excuse to night kill Oka as he's obviously not with Dany*, the only person vocally pushing me. I chose not to do that, twice. Okay. Now Dany has a good reason to take me out of his scum list if we are partners distancing! "Well Eddie had literally no reason to not hammer me" is virtually the only line he needs. Oh look, my key to town read him as well! If any scum team is decent in this gamestate they'll be aligning because there's so few consensus reads due to the general lack of interest and effort. There is no benefit to him voting me as scum, and I will outline why in easy to read bullet points
- Oka had to pry the vote out of him after asking many times. He gets no credit from this if I flip red.
- He has been posting elsewhere on site during this game, clearly showing his interest in the game is low. If he is scum who is bussing me, that means he wants to live to end game, because he is pretty widely scum read before it and would need to contribute. Except, he clearly is not prioritizing the game, so this is incongruent. I would not be allowed to instruct him to fake this in the scum PT, so this line can't be a play. Ellitell.
- If I am lynched, I am confirmed scum in this world. This makes Oka almost confirmed town. This removes Oka as a mislynch, which sure is a great option because both PRs and a probably town Penguin are pushing him. If he pushes on Luna, then he has to push a busser world, incriminating him as well. And, it means both PRs lose their scum read, which means they are likely to push

and check

elsewhere. Unless the team is precisely me + Dany + comical/RCE, it does not work.
- His bad play has led to him being widely scum read... much more widely than me. Which, again, makes him bussing pointless. No credit.

The gamestate does not make sense for us to be partners. That is a fact. Again, this is the person in the game I think is the least likely to be my partner. If you do not understand nor agree we are not partners after this post, you are either scum or you are too tunnelled and I am not interested in discussing this further.


*oka dany is not actually impossible but oka eddie dany is so its fine for the purpose of analogy

1) 0 people have spoken up to defend and/or town read me, all game, except dannflor who's read was super over the top day 1 and looked like spew

You agree with me on this so vote Dannflor with me.

VOTE: Dannflor

i'm moving away from wanting to kill you, but i very much want to kill a voter on me. dann is a better wagon that most of the game though.

Eddie those are pretty much all terrible reasons, especially the premise that your partners wouldn't be bussing you here.

so you agree we should be killing a voter on me then!

hello, here is your one serious post from me

Eddie Cane (5): iDanyboy, OkaPoka, Luna Fox, Something_Smart, Auro

dany is the dude who was at l-1 twice including last page and who i did not hammer despite obviously being able to get away with it, makes perfect sence he'd vote me with the people who were wagoning him
and i think the notion that oka/luna/ss/auro are 4 town is laughable

good luck dumbfucks, especially whatever dumbfucks are town voting me.

I'd kill Something Smart too tbh

Do you expect that reasoning to be convincing to other people?

When scumhunting, mechanical information is far more consistently reliable than going by reads. It is a safe assumption scum is inclined towards coalescing on a flashwagon when an opportunity presents itself. Dannflor finds himself positioned in the optimal place for scum to be situated, operating precisely central regarding the overall wagon dynamics. It is in the prime position to provide momentum while not otherwise appearing scummy to a neutral outside observer. Additionally, a night kill typically involves at least somewhat correct reads. Out of the six slots Firebringer pressured, odds dictate a minimum of one scum is likely to manifest. Dannflor fits the build as well. The evidence against Dannflor creates almost a certainty that he is, in fact, scum, despite the fallacious opinions presented by a combined allotment of malicious and ignorant posters.

Dany's PoE is probably 3 or more town, but he seems like the type of player that would be bad at the game so I don't know if that's scummy of him.

The argument "scum would be bussing me" doesn't hold water, because the two most universally tr'd people are not voting me, and if one of them is scum that makes me town, and if one is scum with me then they are not bussing and you're wrong anyways!

What?

If I am scum with one or two of Comical and RCE: then scum are not bussing me, because scum has been aligning all game.
If one or two of Comical and RCE are scum and I am town: scum are not bussing me, because I am town.
If all of us are town: then I am town.
If both of them are town and I am scum: then bussing me today is throwing, because Oka is a free lynch and even ignoring that, I have both town PRs pocketed.

For those who don't know me, I play mafia largely because I feel like it makes me smarter, and for practice with psychoanalysis. These kinds of logical wifom analysis stuff are my favorite part of the game, so keep 'em coming.

Eddie, do you think Oka was fakeclaiming?

Don't remember a claim unless you mean his memey doc claim in response to my memey cop claim. The site is lagging too bad for me to search atm.

If we are TT, you officially played a .9/10 game, even worse than my 1/10

How so? Why is wanting you lynched for bad play <1/10?

Do you really need to ask this question?

I'm dumb; I'm not really seeing why Oka's play this game has been <1/10. So, please explain

Its in snark about people like SS and you having the reaction to my now-more-serious posting to engage, whereas he is just on the same hill. I'm not serious

It feels like RCE and Comical haven't posted this whole day phase. Why is Luna and Smart townie?

Never mind me encouraging a Dany lynch/check, not going for the free NSG lynch Boon + other guy were offering (assuming she's town lul), Dany and SS both voting me, me being one of the few defending Auro / Comical d2, etc...

I'm not acting like I've played an amazing game. Its like a 3-4/10 based on the flips we've had, I'm not delusional (the same scale has boon at 0). But I think the logic for you guys to find me town is much easier than the inverse, of me sorting the rest of the game. Because I have been such a focal point, there is a lot to analyze. NSG, SS, and somewhat Nero but not as much as the slots that

should

find me town easily if town. PP to a degree as well. Alch/Luna pushing me would be fine, though Alch "defending" (via good logic granted) is interesting.

[schadd_]

;