mini 2126: the game is OVRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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schaddIn post 4999, Luna Fox wrote:
But PP claimed a full role so doesnt your meta say that if he's scum he has to be multitasking? or are you saying he's gated and lying about it?In post 4996, northsidegal wrote:
I mean, that's entirely possible.In post 4994, Luna Fox wrote:I was thinking something along the lines of
"PP had to give fruit N2 so SS couldnt RC, and since SS RC'd N3, PP had to make the kill so he didnt send fruit".
IF ONLY we had someone that could check people's roles.
Oh wait... Kappatendsto give full mafia roles multitasking, as dany had. In mini normal 2055 designed by schadd, there was a mafia even-night neighborizer odd-night fruit vendor, no multitasking (although, to be fair, this is the only instance of this happening, as far as i can tell, so this is really a singular exception to a rule that otherwise holds fairly well).
-shrug-
it's fairly unfortunate for town that nobody received fruit today, is my main conclusion, i think.- Luna Fox
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Don't get me wrong, Eddie is not off the hook today in any sense. I get that my posting so far might make it seem like I think he is, so just to be clear—he isn't.
I just think that we need to take today to actually review things, as a contingency I guess?- Luna Fox
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It's interesting to me that Auro was killed over you—who most people seem to take as a universal townread—especially given that you are a power role and Auro is not.
I think it's probably weak evidence in favor of Eddie and SS being scum (not together, mind you, but evidence individually towards both).- Alchemist21
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it's a compelling narrative but it requires some assumptions
you either have to believe that schadd did not give a mafia fruit vendor multitasking or that there's some aspect of penguin's role that he's lying about (e.g. he's an even-night roleblocker odd-night fruit vendor, or something)- Alchemist21
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2 assumptions to work with here:
- 1 scum is in Nero/SS
- Nero and Eddie are never scum together.
Lynching SS today solves the game if the assumptions are correct. If he flips Town then Nero is scum and Penguin is the partner. If SS flips scum then Nero is Town and we can lynch in the order of Penguin/Eddie and for sure hit the remaining partner.
If everyone agrees on those assumptions then SS should be the lynch today.- PenguinPower
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i think that i'm coming back around to my old old conclusion of "the gunsmiths are probably the same alignment"- northsidegal
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i think it might be eddie / ss
does that make sense?- northsidegal
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is there any reason for nero cain to not check penguinpower tonight?- Eddie Cane
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I guess there's no point in being annoyed at the town alive, because Boon took what was basically a free town win (he was the gunsmith I at least thought was town, narrowed PoE, scum lynch day 2) and harpooned it. This is just going to be my first loss in site since I think 2018, which is a little disappointing, and while I didn't take the game seriously I still think it was a pretty easy game."Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- northsidegal
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assuming you're town, why are you suddenly sure town will lose?- Eddie Cane
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Not impossible with a scum rolecop.In post 5012, northsidegal wrote:i think that i'm coming back around to my old old conclusion of "the gunsmiths are probably the same alignment"
I am going to assume this is an assumption and target the SS assumption.In post 5010, Alchemist21 wrote:- Nero and Eddie are never scum together.
I think if we lynch SS, the check should be hinged on the flips. If SS flips mafia, the odds of Nero being town shoot up and I am a good check. I am never being night killed this game, and it takes a lynch off the table. If SS flips town, maf!Nero would win a 1v1 against me with Boon harpooning the game, so Nero should check PP I believe. If you believe Boon's check, I cannot be a mafia doctor, and if you do not believe Boon's check then I am back to being town regardless. Mafia choosing to kill a town!Nero is as good as a gunsmith check. Does this make sense?In post 5014, northsidegal wrote:is there any reason for nero cain to not check penguinpower tonight?"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- Eddie Cane
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Suddenly sure? I don't think that's true. But because I have a PoE of 3, and there are two not-me kills, and I am not confident about the PoE to begin with. I have not seen town come back from 5 player lylo on this site many times.In post 5017, northsidegal wrote:assuming you're town, why are you suddenly sure town will lose?"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- Alchemist21
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I can’t really think of one. Nero/SS would still need to be resolved today though because there’s still the possibility of scum Nero bussing Penguin if Town Eddie gets lynched today.In post 5014, northsidegal wrote:is there any reason for nero cain to not check penguinpower tonight?- Eddie Cane
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Let me walk through my process here.In post 5010, Alchemist21 wrote:2 assumptions to work with here:
- 1 scum is in Nero/SS
- Nero and Eddie are never scum together.
Lynching SS today solves the game if the assumptions are correct. If he flips Town then Nero is scum and Penguin is the partner. If SS flips scum then Nero is Town and we can lynch in the order of Penguin/Eddie and for sure hit the remaining partner.
If everyone agrees on those assumptions then SS should be the lynch today.
I am partly taking my own town lean on Alch, along with NSG's read. If Alch is scum, his play today is pretty unnecessary. This hinges on NSG not being scum with Alch, but for NSG to be scum with Alch then SS and Nero and PP would all have to be town, and the game is lost anyways,andI independently town lean NSG.
Luna is the hinge factor. That said, I think Luna is town. This read is lowkey sheeping Oka and Boon and a bit of how Luna handled her role, I've never played with her and she's pretty nothingburger. But Luna being mafia is a potential loss vector. I think its partly coverable, actually, which I'll get into.
I think I am clearly not with SS, which I'll make a post on after this. But let's assume you can only clear me from being with Nero, not with SS.
Lynch SS. If SS flips town, then yes, the team is probably Nero Penguin. Here is the world we potentially lose to Luna, and of course NSG or Alch - though maf will have to night kill someone. But Nero scum flip should lead to an Eddie night kill, so it probably won't be my problem.
Lynch SS. If SS flips scum, then I have to defend myself. But this is actually probably more winnable. Mafia Nero will have to claim a green check on myself or Penguin, and we probably lynch the not-green-checked one. If PP is town, f3 is with 2 of Nero/NSG/Alch/Luna, which is not bad odds.
With anEddielynch, the game becomes much harder, and it is feeling like I'll be lynched based on the last thread page, which is part of what makes me upset. SS doesn't even seem to be considering Nero and himself as a 1v1, and yet, he's not pushing any other reads. I don't enjoy how Nero plays and he thinks about the game in a silly way. So I'm not sure what happens after an Eddie lynch, one of NSG Alch Luna die and its probably not salvageable."Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- Alchemist21
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Not all of these aged well, but I think its pretty clear I'm not with an SS Dany team? I had a lengthy interaction with SS explaining why I'm not with Dany...
Spoiler:
Never mind me encouraging a Dany lynch/check, not going for the free NSG lynch Boon + other guy were offering (assuming she's town lul), Dany and SS both voting me, me being one of the few defending Auro / Comical d2, etc...
I'm not acting like I've played an amazing game. Its like a 3-4/10 based on the flips we've had, I'm not delusional (the same scale has boon at 0). But I think the logic for you guys to find me town is much easier than the inverse, of me sorting the rest of the game. Because I have been such a focal point, there is a lot to analyze. NSG, SS, and somewhat Nero but not as much as the slots thatshouldfind me town easily if town. PP to a degree as well. Alch/Luna pushing me would be fine, though Alch "defending" (via good logic granted) is interesting."Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- schadd_
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