Mini 2133: XP Mafia II (Game Over)

[Raya36]

Ame, what are your thoughts on Momo taking out the link to the post you were referring to in your quote?

[Ame]

Raya, I ask about Hectic because there was a discrepancy in the way you had read us:

Spoiler:

I would honestly consider anyone pushing for neighborizer to be scummy. It gains almost no useful and dependable information for town to use and also is a great way for scum to pocket and gain town trust.

Who do you think of the current people voting neighbouriser are scummy for it?

Momo isn't that bad because he made his case for why he believes neighborhoods are a good idea. I don't agree though.

I find Ame choosing neighborizer to be scummy because he even says that Strongman is the best choice but he's choosing neighborhoods because that's more fun.

Flight of the Conchords is definitely scummy for choosing neighborhoods especially since their reasoning was it's fun and they support the mafia strongman ability.

I don't understand why you're voting neighborizer when I believe you've said strongman is better and neighborizer is a bad idea.

Figured I'd do a quick reads list although most are null range this early on (All is ordered)

Town

Hectic

Farkset
Pink Ball

Null

Momo
mastina
Pine
Ginngie
Not Known 15

Ame

Ladu Chloe
springlullaby

Scum

Flight of the Conchords

Ok caught up. I'm not for train cop since it's a standard action. It just doesn't seem that useful unless it's a bonus option. It also seems more useful to mafia since they can use 2-3 train cops at once. Also, I disagree with mass train cop plans.
I think no strongman is the best option, but I actually like the neighborizer thing too, mainly because it seems fun. Hmm

VOTE: Neighborizor

I realize this is the unpopular choice, so consider me on disable strongman as well.

After realising the flaws with Train Cop, I kinda just wanna vote Neighbourhood for fun reasons now. VOTE: Neighbourhood

Momo, I agree, but you're missing situations where town cops/or strong PRs are forced to claim due to being driven up, and then scum can strongman while needing to kill them the next night.

Why is this so?

Regarding momo, I think there's a good chance he's scum. However, I feel better about capturing Farkset and would like to give momo the Night to prove to us he is town as he suggested being able to do.

[Raya36]

You're right about the discrepancy in 195 although my reads list is hardly based on that. The main reason for the difference though is that I already townread hectic and already scumread you. Consider your spots on the list reversed now though but hectic a bit higher than you were.

[Ame]

Why did you scum read me?

[Raya36]

I really didn't like 101 and I didn't like the explanations later.

[Ame]

Thank you, your explanations make sense and I like your tone. I'm just trying to understand why you didn't find Hectic voting neighborizer for fun (despite being for strongman) scummy but you found Ame voting for neighborizer for fun (despite being for strongman) scummy.

[Flight of the Conchords]

Waiting for deadline then, as half the game aren't interested enough to make any kind of decision.

- Bret

[Raya36]

Thank you, your explanations make sense and I like your tone. I'm just trying to understand why you didn't find Hectic voting neighborizer for fun (despite being for strongman) scummy but you found Ame voting for neighborizer for fun (despite being for strongman) scummy.

That was simply bad analysis on my part. You should have both been held more or less equally but I was too focused on the reads I already had

[Ame]

Thanks Raya! This is my last set of questions and I'm done:

1. Do you think your play so far is play you would have been able to do as scum? In other words, do you think you have played in a way that is distinguishable from scum play?

2. Are you playing differently than you did in Totally Real Food in your opinion?

[Pine]

Hunh, I forgot to post here after prod. Good thing the mods are swell chums and haven't replaced me yet.

Reading...

[Pine]

I'm feeling like this is a game for Townhunting.

My list so far consists of Ame, Ginny, Chloe, Raya, and mastina's slot. Momo and Pink Ball are +EV Town, but I'm not letting them into the club yet.

SL is really the only slot I'm uncomfortable with right now.

[Ame]

Would you mind providing examples? Particularly of him being serious as town and of what you mean by awkward.

Also Pink, how do these impact your view:

Spoiler:

@clidd @dsj sheep me for win let's goooooo

God if you're town here

You know what, let's give this a spin. VOTE: Ame

You've felt opportunistic today, Ame. I think you were hoping some of us would latch onto your Doro scumread with how you were pushing it earlier, but now choose to evaporate it into thin air when no one does.

Wait a second I just noticed a contradiction:

You had literally not included me on any of your scum reads and the one time you said that it was me I changed your mind because you thought one of my comments was funny. You are the one being inconsistent.

dsj if you knew I was scumreading you before

why did you think neighbors were confirmed town to each other

? Surely you would have picked up that it wasn't the case from the way I was treating you?

Lul, I respect how cocky you are if you're scum. Unsure if I should be townreading or scumreading how you keep shifting attention/focus.

Coukd you explain why AaronFF was your third strongest scumread start of day and now seems to be your strongest townread?

UNVOTE: Farkset

(Temporary. I don't want to wake up to a hammer.)

[Farkset]

So, this is Ame's scumgame

It takes only a quick glance to notice that she is fully capable of displaying effort and complexity as scum, as well as demanding/pretending leadership. I respect that. There are a few elements of note that occur as different, plausibly, from her towngames. In a way, she is very, very similar to how i play, although considerably less emotional overall.

lol this comes off as...salty

? tw too to a lesser extent.

It's like I took two potenial MLes of the table and you're upset about / trying to doubt case it

She cannot hide every trace of added knowledge from her posts, and with that she is able to recognize town reactions beacuse she knows they come from town beforehand - this is different than what she's doing in her other towngames and here.

As I said, I rely heavily on meta to gain an understanding of a person and I usually spend an absurd amount of time nitpicking the early pages and digging deep into each person's background. I just haven't had enough time to do so and I'm not confident in my reads until then.

As i already mentioned in my previous analysis, she is heavily reliant on meta and her scum!self knows this and fakes it properly. In this game she has openly refused to use meta as a tool for solving, i would expect scum!her to do it/lie about it instead. This is not a hard game to sort by meta, since most of the vocal players have a very transparent meta archive, and the others are just not worth/impossible to metadive (alts, lowpost lurkers, old players returning).

Spoiler: Ame progression in the purgatory game

VOTE: Amrun

Last check in before deadline. On the train and surprisingly refreshed.

I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that both am and wooper are scum. woopers initial am case didn't really make sense and one the points he used to town read Elmo was based on the reverse logic that am was scum. That being said, I think he's been pushing her enough that it's less likely distancing than is. And I prefer to keep him since he has been actively engaged whereas Am has been more on the periphery.

( Sorry if wrong Am I honestly just haven't had the time to thoroughly dig into you :[ )

Boop

VOTE: STRQ

VOTE: Amrun

Yes, I'm fine with going. I just want to make sure these things are accounted for:
-Elmo provides reasoning for her reads.
-Tai and Summer explain their S_S read in detail.
-Summer provides details on the contradictory meta evidence against Looker.
-Q fleshes out his thought process behind his wooper read at the EoD.

Please don't let any of these things go unanswered

I had a behemoth in the works, but I'll condense it to the main points that I think are worthwhile:

Implo | Looker > pops > S_S

::

Amrun, Elmo, STRQ

Amrun and SQRT were Ame's scumpartners. She is a solid busser, and a player that can will get trapped in the "i must be correct" fallacy when faced with it. Subconsciously, this player profile has to appear correct on what they're doing. They will not back off of a scum wagon, instead making sure she's on it when it happens. They're afraid of looking bad, but more than that they really, really, really want to be correct and get praised for it. I am also like that, so i understand perfectly what it means. A quick meta check will easily prove my words true.

Ame is very likely town. The player profile is a perfect match.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

Hectic Scumgame

He's... improved. A lot. I wish Nacho could see this when metadiving Hectic again, after towncasing him hard in undertale because of his "bad" scum meta. Some things can be noted here too:

Post 291 - Insomnia was his scumpartner. Never thrown a vote in that direction. Matches my memory of his other scumgames, hectic is an antibusser.
Post 303 - scum!Hectic has no issues voting onto a popular wagon, from my memory town!Hectic is way more hesitant. Then again, he later retracted it and stareted a new wagon on town (Post 405), but ultimately ended up in the counterwagon to scum (Post 1091) so i think it's fairly solid.
Post 1677 - I think i have never seen town!hectic asking for a game to end quickly - this denotes a certain pressure to get it over with, and subsequent relief when good things happen (Post 1765).
Post 1678 - Misuse of hyperboles such as "literally a scumclaim!", town!Hectic is never that confident.

Generally speaking

- scum!Hectic also doesn't have the heart to gimmick nearly as much as town!Hectic has.

I am not confident i would catch hectic in that game if i didn't read it

after

it was over and all flips were available to me, but i'm fairly sure scum!hectic would already have voted me, or pushed stronger on springlullaby assuming she's town rather than unvoting. Town!Ame is clearly the kill from scum!Hectic in this scenario (for being the player most listened to, and one of the top defenders of springlullaby), so i don't think he would care about looking bad by pushing the mislynch. I confirm my townlean on Hectic, perhaps a bit less confident than before, but he's still my quest leader.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

HURT: springlullaby
Enough of this BS.

@NK15 is this vote because springlullaby irritated you or do you have an AI read on her?

They are either overconfident and rude town or powerwolfing scum

. The second is a real possibility, and that one is higher than default, so yes,

I have a scumread on them

. A weak one. If we had access to lynch, which we sadly don`t, a lynch would be highly recommended because them being alive is heavily anti-town.
And about questing: Town should not want that sabotage being around at Night 2+ because losing all stored xp is... too bad at that point. I can get behind the reasoning for a day 1/night 1 quest but after that, the potential damage is just too big.

15. All private topics have daytalk. Any private topics are welcome to request a Discord server.

It doesn't indicate that scum has a daychat PT.

It says that all PT`s have daytalk.
Mafia have a scum PT in approximately 99% of all games.

^This is really bad.

No, it`s not. Don`t disable lurkers.

HURT: Farkset
The motivation does indeed seem to be hidden here.

Probably scum?

Also, the leader on the quest should be me, because I am town.

@Spring @FoC @NK could you address the discrepancies Farkran pointed out regarding your progression? Basically, can you walk us through your thought processes?

There are no discrepancies. About you: Train can be roleblocked. If mafia has a roleblocker they can prevent your role from being upgraded, forever.
About Farkset/springlullaby: Both exhibit questionable behaviour. BOTH.

It is extremely likely that they are not town together. There`s a good case against Farkran though, based on what they said not matching what they said later.... about their motivations...

For these reasons, I am obviously not ok with spring being leader.

Leader:Ame

This is a progression i'm most worried about tbh. NK15 goes from having a scumread on springlullaby (initially weak, in his words), to attacking her multiple times throughout the thread (indicating a continued dislike of the slot, genuine or not), up to ultimately perform a full 180° in post 959 by voting on the player who's most fiercely attacking springlullaby. He does not mention the roleclaim by springlullaby, instead uses "hidden motivations" and "wording inconsistency" as a case against me, while maintaining serious doubts on springlullaby. Why don't you understand the motivations behind my case against springlullaby, if your opinion of her was similar to mine? Why would you shift the wagon momentum away from springlullaby to block me instead? Have you noticed something you didn't like in my case against springlullaby? Where? What are your reasons to trust Ame defending your scumread, as opposed to trust me attacking your scumread?

My vote can be considered on NK15 as well, if town can muster some will to play as opposed to read pages and pages of 1v1s between me and Ame which is very likely TvT.

-Farkran

[Lady Chloe]

NK15, why do you deem Farkset and springlullaby as likely containing scum, but you do not elaborate on what their questionable behavior is, and how that translates to your vote?

Blessed Ones,

I will be VLA until Wednesday, or perhaps Thursday.

I will check in today and tomorrow to consensus vote.

However, these are my solid townreads. I will not compromise here. {Raya-Ame-Pine-FotC-Ginngie-Hectic-springlullaby}

I will say, Farkset feels quite town in reading this past page, I'd be hesitant to consensus vote there, as well.

The PoE seems: {NK15, momo, mastina slot, Pink Ball} which, must contain town, so if anyone townreads these souls; please set your stance.

Hectic,

mastina replaced out due to a ban, I believe. It is unfortunate. It is not AI.

[Farkset]

Mastina ban
Looks like it's true.

Chloe, why do you townread FotC?

-Farkran

[Raya36]

Thanks Raya! This is my last set of questions and I'm done:

1. Do you think your play so far is play you would have been able to do as scum? In other words, do you think you have played in a way that is distinguishable from scum play?

2. Are you playing differently than you did in Totally Real Food in your opinion?

1. I honestly probably haven't done anything I couldn't have faked as scum. I do think my town play is distinguishable from my scum play though. I haven't had enough scum games yet to get comfortable with it and I'm sure that shows.

2. I would say in totally real food I participated a lot more. I think I was within top 3 posters? I asked more questions and was actively scumhunting more. I think the reason for that was I had a read on the other top posters whereas here I do not which is making it very overwhelming for me.

[Lady Chloe]

Farkset,

Mastina ban
Looks like it's true.

Chloe, why do you townread FotC?

-Farkran

Bret's line of reasoning to avoid ending the day in 651 is both a unique thought to the thread, and his frustration does not appear fabricated, namely because the End-Day wagon has had no true leverage.

709 and 815 convey a level of dissonance that I believe is hard to fabricate. Jemaine introduces a solve without any consultation of Bret, and without any hesitation of asserting his reads. Bret returns to the thread pages later with another scumread of his. There is no fluff to articulate any change of heart, or action that is set to deliberately make this progression more predictable, so it seems natural.

I do not think scum would out such information about their role in 741. Specifically, because the Neighborizer mechanic wagon never seemed a likely possibility it would be voted on in the end. I don't believe a scum hydra would consist of one head defending another head's choice of this mechanic if it both had resistance, and they were wagoned for a certain line of thought regarding it.

Jemaine defends, explains, and actively shows a desire to communicate with his head; but Jemaine also asserts his opinions outside of Bret's, so the defense does not feel like a playstyle that negates suspicion on them, but refutes and rationalizes them. 368 533 706 are a few posts aside from ones already listed.

1031, I don't think scum announces their presence in such a way in a slow gamestate. It pays them too much attention.

[Flight of the Conchords]

I will say, Farkset feels quite town in reading this past page, I'd be hesitant to consensus vote there, as well.

Why?
Cold meta is really easy busywork for scum to do because it still applies regardless of alignment. I feel like he's going extra effort mode because a number of people scumread him.
He's also townreading the more manipulable slots, like Ame, whilst scum read those that are harder to do so, us and SL.
I find him extraordinarily scummy.

- Bret

[Farkset]

Ame is manipulable? lol ok sure, after 5 pages of 1v1 where she almost didn't read any of my posts, went straightly against at least 2 other people's opinions not including me, and concluded with the same thoughts she had at the beginning of our argument, i definitely agree that she's one of the most manipulable slots here

---

@Chloe, do you disagree that FOC has been dramatically awkward around springlullaby? Set aside our disagreement on springlullaby herself - look at FOC's aggressiveness when they talk about me vs springlullaby and where that aggressiveness lean. Does that come from town to you? Why? Where do you think they get their confidence in their read? They haven't been casing any of the parts in the 1v1, they just offered a straight answer.

About post 651, why do you think they offered it as a reason to stop the day? I mean, to me it's kinda obvious that they're trying to defend/pocket springlullaby - she was being the top wagon at the time and ending the day (see VC 1.5 in post 650).
The statement offered in 651 is false, and if they were thinking as it has been demonstrated earlier, but aside from that it's not backed up by an explanation nor a vote - instead, they focus on defending springlullaby. They switched onto voting me only in post 899, when my wagon was gaining popularity in words and votes. If it was in their interest to capture scum (i am "incredibly, extraordinarily scummy" by their own words), don't you think they would have done so earlier?

I don't think 709 and 815 are AI to be honest, but i have only recently started my experience playing in hydras so i wouldn't know how a scum hydra would coordinate. I have to say, however, that i have seen similar dissonance in a town hydra so you may have a point here. The same could be said about the other 3 posts you mention, two paragraphs below. It's peculiar though that up to 706 they apparently didn't have us as scum, otherwise they wouldn't ask Kerset to "remedy the situation" - that's a pointless statement to throw at your biggest and highest scumread - it's not like one head can be scum while the other is not.

The softclaim in 741 - i don't know what to make of that but i don't think it should be town AI as you display it. This is clearly me confbiasing them at this point, but that claim can also be used to validate nk-and-action distancing (no sabotage because useless, etc). 4 xp is a weird cost for a VT-like claim, but if they have other means to gain exp it could make sense.

1031 is a not-so-subtle push against my slot, why do you see it as anything else? This is NAI by itself, though - it's only scummy when you pair it with my first paragraph about post 651.

All in all, my staple point for scumreading them is -once again - their very awkward interactions with the springlullaby slot. All the other points that have been brought up in the past are circumstantial - i can get how they would omgus us for calling them twtbw and wrong (even though i admitted my mistake about the xp loss on capture), but that would be a reason to scumread us, not to townread springlullaby, whereas their main sentiment is the latter, as shown by 651+717+724. If you believe you have found scum beyond any reasonable doubt, that would be your main concern, not whiteknighting a different slot.

If you think i am sorely mistaken, as your readlist and subsequent explanation implies, why do you think so and how would you back your opinion up?

-Farkran

[Raya36]

I will say, Farkset feels quite town in reading this past page, I'd be hesitant to consensus vote there, as well.

Why?
Cold meta is really easy busywork for scum to do because it still applies regardless of alignment. I feel like he's going extra effort mode because a number of people scumread him.

He's also townreading the more manipulable slots, like Ame, whilst scum read those that are harder to do so, us and SL.

I find him extraordinarily scummy.

- Bret

This is sort of the feeling I've been getting from the slot. Not exactly what I was thinking but I agree with it. I was just getting the feeling that their reads weren't genuine I think but I'm having a really hard time with reading the slot.

[Raya36]

(The part of the quote I bolded is what I'm referring to)

[Ame]

@Lady may I have an answer to 1006?

[Raya36]

I think I'd be willing to go Farkset or momo today