Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[humaneatingmonkey]

You know what
I thought I knew what I was talking about, but I didn't.
I looked at 3b's ISO and tried to find where he defended Kirari, but didn't find it.
I swear I thought he was defending Kirari.

I probably should read the game.

[LuckyLuciano]

Hey, Monkey. You're town, I'm town. I'm not having fun. Let's just solve the game right now, the two of us, and ignore what other people say until we have the solve so I don't have to care about this game anymore. You down?

[HoldenGolden]

HoldenGolden, let's talk buddy.

I agree that Kirari could be town, if only that she's easily the best choice for scum to be a mislynch set-up. 3bounty just makes sense as scum. However, the tricky part is his whiteknighting of Kirari here doesn't lead me to believe that Kirari is "the mislynch" of the day. He's been saying "within Alo's wagon" but he doesn't consider Kirari at all. See why it's difficult? We can lynch 3bounty today, find out he's scum, and then we'll just go back to lynching Kirari. Does these thoughts makes sense?

I'm fine lynch 3b depending on his responses (the fact he is now scum reading off the wagon he is so sure has scum is raising more eyebrows)

My one issue with 3b/kirari tem is the fact that he denied stacking on kiraris proposed yoohs wagon earlier before the kirari v floof interactions. i feel like if you are leaving your partner to be the main focal point of town you dont narrow down your ability to support them if the plan goes wrong.

I said highest scum % would be on the wagon, but I am in no way certain of anyone's alignment. Are you saying that I am scum if I manage to find scum off wagon? Just because I said highest hit % would be on wagon? What?

It stands out to me since you definently have scum read HEM and Kirari prior to this and expressed a strong urge to lynch on wagon. Then you come post me explaining why the gambit is bad and throw out "this is 100% scum" read when earlier you felt yooh was a bad wagon.

I have no issues with you reevaluating your reads, but you have to understand from my point of view you have jumped around with your accusations without providing strong reasoning for two of them. Do you think vt town!floof ever gets that tilted by kirari to where that post comes out of him? Do you think the gambit is designed to fish out a remaining pr role? How certain given the rest of his play are you in him not being a pr?

These are the sort of questions that I want to see you attempt to answer so that I can understand your PoV better than your earlier statements like "hem is extremely scummy" which doesnt give me any insight

[humaneatingmonkey]

Hold on, I am no longer confident in my reads. I don't think I've been paying close attention to this game at all. I'll be back. UNVOTE:

[HoldenGolden]

Man monkey goes for the buddy and chill post and now LL does too on monkey.

This is a buddying buddy's buddy world I'm telling you.

Also monkey you most likely are thinking when 3b disagreed with the pr fishing debate you brought up.

[HoldenGolden]

Hey, Monkey. You're town, I'm town. I'm not having fun. Let's just solve the game right now, the two of us, and ignore what other people say until we have the solve so I don't have to care about this game anymore. You down?

So you are going to ignore the rest of the game?

......even me *sniff sniff*?

[clidd]

Ok, no more coasting.

[HoldenGolden]

See! Even...what's his name cumberman came back!

Feeling better cli2d?

[LuckyLuciano]

It's nothing personal Holden, I just don't really want to play this particular game anymore. I'm having more fun observing other games than playing this one. I'd rather just go all-in on a solve now. I think I have an almost game-winning PoE for town. Worst case scenario without refining the PoE further is getting down to 3-player LYLO with the final remaining town player outside the PoE having a 50/50 decision with the two remaining players in the PoE.

[clidd]

Yes, I'm fine now.

[HoldenGolden]

It's nothing personal Holden, I just don't really want to play this particular game anymore. I'm having more fun observing other games than playing this one. I'd rather just go all-in on a solve now. I think I have an almost game-winning PoE for town. Worst case scenario without refining the PoE further is getting down to 3-player LYLO with the final remaining town player outside the PoE having a 50/50 decision with the two remaining players in the PoE.

None taken I'm just being dramatic.

What's your game winning PoE for us then so far?

[clidd]

I'm reading, give me a moment.

[HoldenGolden]

I was talking to LL. Take your time cli2d

[LuckyLuciano]

@Holden, I'm pretty sure Monkey is town. I'm waiting for him to decide if he wants to all-in on a solve with me.

[LuckyLuciano]

Ah fuck it, I don't really care. If I didn't dislike replacements so much I would have replaced out a long time ago. Let's just get this over with. Kirari is the goon. If he's town, town always loses. Our job today is to figure out who his buddy is. Extended analysis forthcoming.

[LuckyLuciano]

I am the tracker. I tracked Kirari N1, he visited noone. I buy Monkey's case even more than he does, I think. This is because I knew after the jailkeeper flip that the setup is 2A. Mafia knew before the flip that the setup was #A. Kirari's two fake claims were cop and mason, both present in #A setups. 983 represents Kirari continuing to fish for TPRs. See:

For gamestate, Alora was easily the next best thing after a redflip, and continuing to drag out the day would only risk *outing more town power*.

This implies a continuation of D1 results in a TPR outing. Given that the logical conclusion of an extended D1 is Kirari claiming, he's implying he's TPR. I know he's not, because I'm TPR. After the flip, mafia knows the setup is 2A. See exhibit two:

My current thought is that the town friendly neighbor was jailkept last night actually

The reason I think that is that that is the worst possible scenario for town and this kinda feels like one of those games

This is enough piece of bait from Kirari. Friendly neighbor doesn't exist. Hard denying this theory is indicative that a player is TPR, because they know this theory must be false.

1063 was a gambit. I wanted to imply to Kirari that I believed he was softing TPR, which would imply that I am not TPR, because if I were TPR I would know he can't be TPR. The idea is that we delay the Kirari lynch, find the role blocker, and I track him the following night, or if we miss roleblocker, I track a different player attempting to hit the roleblocker. Ideally mafia would believe I'm VT and not roleblock me because of that post, and would not night kill me because I hard TR'd Kirari. There was a second part to this gambit as well. I figured that Kirari v Monkey was TvS, and if I were wrong on Kirari then mafia would NK him after a failed mislynch attempt and one of the people on the wagon (me) flipping to a hard TR. After 1077 I no longer believe Kirari can be town. If he's VT, he accidentally made every role fish that could possibly align with mafia's knowledge of the setup as the game progressed.

[LuckyLuciano]

Now I get to die tonight and get out of this game. I think Yooh v Kirari looks TvS. I'd wager the roleblocker is between {Clidd, Holden, 3b}. If I'm right, the worst possible result of following the PoE is a 50/50 at 3p LYLO.

[clidd]

I have some emotional impressions:

Note¹: The way Yooh reacted during the discussion with Kirari is towny.

Note²: I feel a towny progression from Holden, especially from the way he gestured in the last pages.

Note³: I was unable to associate Kiraris' stance and reactions to a towny spectrum.

My quick PoE is:

[Luciano] [Monkey] [Yooh] [Holden]

[Kirari] [3bounty]

[Kirari Momobami]

clidd are you ccing LL?

[LuckyLuciano]

Follow-up, I forgot to mention, it makes sense for the goon to role fish D1 than the roleblocker because the mafia is hurt less by goon getting caught. My preliminary assumption would be Holden RBer because if it's not then Kirari trusted Peaches or 3b to carry the game if he was caught. That's more gut than anything, and need to look back at the game pre-flipping Kirari red to figure out who his partner is before I'm NK'ed.

[LuckyLuciano]

clidd are you ccing LL?

Where do you see a CC?

[clidd]

clidd are you ccing LL?

?

[Kirari Momobami]

When I say someone is masons with me, it means one of two things:
a) they're masons with me :3
b) I townread them strongly

Lol, this is a very risky instance. Do you have a game where you did something similar ?

I like how you think who was softing TPR but you DON'T think this was a tpr soft

if I was scum I n1 clidd every single time

[Kirari Momobami]

that's literally the only reason I was passing on clidd so if he's claiming VT then he's definitely scum

VOTE: clidd

[LuckyLuciano]

@Everyone, does anybody see flaws in my belief that Kirari is scum, or believe that town ever wins if he's town? If the answer to either question is yes, let's discuss it. If not, let's preflip Kirari red and find his partner.