Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1250 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:08 pm

A big problem I have with town!Kirari, is why did the wagon stall if he's town? If you want to argue that scum wants to avoid hammering, how come after I unvote and disappear for some time there's isn't additional pressure on him? It feels highly strategic for scum to support a town!Kirari lynch, especially if both are off the wagon. Do we ever think the scumteam is really Yooh + Monkey? Probably not. So what scum team of Yooh + X or Monkey + X makes sense? Btw, if Kirari is town, Monkey has to be scum imo.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1251 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:40 pm

Day 1 VCA - Kirari + 3b Solve

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LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1252 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:40 pm

Day 1 VCA - Kirari + Holden Solve

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LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1253 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:40 pm

Day 1 VCA - Kirari + Clidd Solve

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LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1254 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:44 pm

Worthy of note, Holden was absent early in the day phase for an extended period of time. During that time, he posted elsewhere on site. Pairing this with the mod sending out notifications that day 2 was up, I see scum motive for avoiding the game but not town motive. In any case, if town!Kirari, then town!Holden feels good because while there is scum motive for Holden not posting during a scum!Kirari wagon, it seems odd for scum!Holden not to post during a town!Kirari wagon.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1255 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:46 pm

VCA [4] of day one makes me wary of pre-flipping both Monkey and Yooh green, but iirc it was early in the game and putting me at L-1 would draw suspicion, and the day 2 VCA makes me feel better about Monkey and Yooh, although moreso Monkey than Yooh. I need to go back and look at the wagon against me for context. I may post a Kirari + Monkey and Kirari + Yooh solve later.

Elmo TeH AzN · Post Post #1256 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:48 pm

Guys this post is just a reminder to keep things Civil. Just a friendly reminder.

Elmo TeH AzN · Post Post #1257 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:50 pm

Votecount 2.04

Kirari Momobami (1)

- Yooh,

Clidd (1)

- Kirari Momobami,

Not Voting (5)

- 3Bounty, HoldenGolden, Clidd, LuckyLuciano, humaneatingmonkey,

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2020-04-26 09:10:00)

Elmo TeH AzN · Post Post #1258 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:22 pm

In post 1185, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
@Mod can roleblocker multi-task even if his buddy is alive?

Yes.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1259 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:33 pm

In post 1256, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
Guys this post is just a reminder to keep things Civil. Just a friendly reminder.

In post 1257, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:

Those claws ain't looking too civil.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1260 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:23 pm

I'm going to take a moment to look between the start of day 2 and my claim in 1140.

- Yooh instantly starts a push on Kirari for the hammer. This is consistent with Yooh saying that hammering would be scummy at the end of D1.

- Clidd declares Kirari his SR, but doesn't immediately vote. Part of me wonders if scum!Clidd would add fire to a scum!Kirari wagon here, when it's likely to gain traction anyway.

- Third post of the day is Monkey voting Kirari. He's already analyzed why Who was killed. I think it's worth going back and tracing Monkey's read on who, but I'm not going to spend the time doing that because I'm convinced that Monkey v Kirari is always TvS. If Kirari is red, Monkey is green. If Kirari is green, Monkey is red. If Kirari is green, however, and he doesn't see how his play exposed Who and allowed Monkey to exploit it, then I'm severely disappointed in him. Monkey has far more town equity with the way D1 ended, pivoting from a town lynch to a player who he believes is mafia, as expressed by several gut reads he made throughout the day. There's a lot of consistency in Monkey's play.

- 882 and 884 are worth looking at. Based on Clidd's post I can see how a player would think they may have put Kirari at L-1. I'm not sure if it's AI, though. I can see both town!Monkey and scum!Monkey not wanting to immediately put any!Kirari at L-1 here.

- 881 Kirari essentially says that he hammered Alo because Alo made, from his perspective, a bad play, and has yet to develop this read into Alo making an anti-town play.

- 888 is referencing 549. It's also misleading. Who wasn't asking what a mason was, he was asking whether Kirari was claiming mason or using mason to reference something different (his townreads). This is important to talk about because Kirari extends the claim that InWho is asking what a mason is to argue that InWho's post is not PR-indicative. A proper interpretation of what InWho was asking begs the question as to why he asked it, especially when in the same post he feels Kirari's actions are mafia motivated. I think from scum!Kirari's perspective, InWho's post here is extremely PR-indicative, and it's hard for me to believe that Kirari misunderstood what InWho was asking, as either alignment.

- 891 3b appears and defends Kirari.

- 897 I think it's perfectly normal to townread somebody for thinking similarly to you about another player. I think it's very scummy to try to get another player to townread you by convincing them that the two of you are thinking similarly about another player. I also dislike Kirari's decision not to analyze Monkey's motives for scumreading him and just dismisses it as Monkey having a bad game. Kinda funny considering that if Kirari is town he's giving a textbook example of "having a bad game".

- 903 implies he thinks he knows who the other TPR is. Some time after I claim he says he was certain Clidd was TPR and knowing that Clidd isn't allows him to push Clidd. There's something very important at play here:

> Prior to my claim, either town!Kirari thought Clidd was TPR, or scum!Kirari thought Clidd was TPR, or scum!Kirari was setting up scum!Clidd for a 1v1 with the remaining TPR at LYLO. I'm not really acknowledging the first option at this time as I still don't buy town!Kirari hard role fishing all of D1 and in D2 prior to my claim, and even if he does, I don't buy him accidentally role fishing in such a way that is perfectly explained by the mafia's knowledge at each stage of the game. If Kirari flips green, I still don't know if this is worth looking at because he's so clearly wrong. It's important, however, if Kirari is red to determine whether he thought Clidd was actually TPR, in which case Clidd is green, or if he was setting up LYLO, in which case Clidd is red. It's 3am here, and I'm tired, so I am not going to try to figure out which is more likely right now. My preliminary guess is that we look at the post Kirari indicated is a soft from Clidd and determine if that looks planted or not.

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I'll finish this tomorrow, I'm too tired.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1261 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:56 pm

Alright, so here's the thing: I could sleep, and probably should since I really hate this game and would replace out if I didn't hate replacements more than I hate this game. However, Kirari has also annoyed me to the point where even though I don't care about winning this game, I do care about seeing him lose and my pettiness knows no bounds. In other words,

Spoiler:

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1262 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:08 pm

- Re: 903 and Kirari thinking Clidd is TPR (1143, 1156). Let's cross-apply this thought process to 1077. Through substitution we see that Kirari is saying that he thinks Clidd is Friendly Neighbor and InWho jailed Clidd. The question then becomes, how does town!Kirari correlate 845 with anything other than InWho jailing Kirari? Town!Kirari never makes 1077 in good faith, and scum!Kirari makes 1077 trying to bait the tracker to react to it. I refuse to believe Kirari is ever town here.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1263 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:09 pm

Even if somebody can explain town!Kirari believes that what he is saying in 1077 is true, how do you explain town motive for actually posting his thought publicly?

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1264 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:11 pm

In post 907, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
I think a PR daying on N1 is a direct result of your fakeclaimery.
I believe that you're scum independently of the InWho22 kill. I just think that the narrative fits that you are scum, and that it makes sense that InWho22 was killed as a direct result of your actions.

Exactly why Kirari deserves to lose if he's town.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1265 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:16 pm

- 908 doesn't compute. His FPS clearly drew out PR-indicative reactions. Everyone but him thinks InWho's reaction was PR-indicative. He thinks Clidd's reaction was PR-Indicative. Either way, everyone in the game believes that there is reason to believe either InWho or Clidd is TPR. Why is Monkey ever a NK target? This doesn't make sense from town perspective. It does make sense from scum perspective that wants to deter Monkey's FOS.

- On the topic of the EOD gamestate, let's look back at the final push.

- 914 I don't know if he's townpainting or scumpainting Clidd here. I think Clidd is the priority slot to sort, not because I'm confident he's Kirari's partner, but because Kirari makes a lot of deliberate interactions with Clidd.

- 923 This is a straight lie. He only softed roles that are possible given the setup we actually have, and his fishing attempts changed direction starting D2 after the InWho flip gave mafia perfect knowledge of which setup we're playing. Town!Kirari has to try really fucking hard to help mafia as much as he has this game.

- 929, would maybe make sense if his FPS doesn't fit perfectly with mafia knowledge at each stage of the game.

- 935, does town!Kirari ever fake claim cop here if TPR isn't hit N1? He always gets counterclaimed if he does, exposing at least 1 TPR, and causing a TvT 1v1. This reads as if he's still trying to justify his D1 FPS by claiming he wants to continue FPSing D2. Seriously, if town!Kirari thinks fakeclaiming Cop D2 would ever have been beneficial to town, he really is trying to lose the game for town.

- 939 I really don't know what to make of this post. In 879 he explicitly states that he is not comfortable voting until he does more research into Kirari, and then in 939 and 940 he dismisses his reason to believe Kirari is town, but doesn't explain why he isn't voting. He was fine putting Alo at L-1, why not Kirari? Actually, let's track Clidd's thought process through his ISO from this point on. 950 he provides meta-independent reason to believe Kirari is scum.

- 962 Clidd gives a reason for town!Kirari, and a reason for scum!Kirari. His reason for town!Kirari is that he feels there is a degree of towny in Kirari's 942. I fail to see how 942 looks any different from one Kirari alignment to the other. @Clidd, can you elaborate here?

- 964 Despite all the reasons he's given to scumread Kirari, he's hesitant to lynch because the lynch feels too easy. I'm mixed on this post. I do believe that most of the time when a lynch feels too easy, the lynch is on town. I don't know if town!Clidd finds Kirari's lynch too easy while not finding the Alo lynch too easy. The problem with reading too far into this is that Alo was objectively a good gamestate lynch. (Spoiler: If there's a good gamestate lynch D1, then D1 has warped into a bad gamestate for town.)

- 1054, 1058, 1061. That's a whole mood.

- 1142 Still SR on Kirari.

- 1159 I do believe that Clidd would NK me N1 given how our previous game together went. This TR, however, is tainted by the fact that if he's scum, he's scum with either Kirari or Monkey, and they both have reason to believe InWho is TPR, and I don't think scum!Clidd's desire to NK me N1 outweighs their desire to NK TPR N1, especially when I deliberating and publicly chose not to sort the Clidd slot until LYLO (which I did in our previous game for another slot and I held to it until that slot was mechanically proven to be scum), and even more so in the case that Kirari is scum given that Kirari saw me as townreading him entering N1.

> Let's pause and talk about Kirari's disdain with my read on him supposedly flipping between D1 and D2 (949). He's referring to 745. I wasn't really townreading Kirari. I was making a statement that he did something that a town player would do. Does town read 745 and then get upset when I enter D2 with a scumread on them? I don't think so. I think mafia keeps more track of who townreads them and why, because they need to be townread to win. 949 reads to me as mafia who is bothered that they banked on 745 being stronger than it was.

- 1178 I'm not sure if scum!Clidd simultaneously townreads the person pushing hardest against Kirari at the time, and doesn't push Kirari himself. If scum!Clidd and town!Kirari, Clidd knows Kirari is town, and can turn on town!Yooh after Kirari flips green. Scum!Clidd and town!Kirari only makes sense if scum!Clidd + scum!Yooh, and I have a hard time believing that if Kirari is town, Monkey is also town. If scum!Clidd and scum!Kirari, then Clidd's townreading of Yooh is tacit acceptance that Kirari is getting lynched and it begs the question why he isn't declaring intent on Kirari at this point to at least grab towncred, much less why he's working to limit the PoE. If scum!Clidd + scum!Kirari, assuming a Kirari lynch today, I die tonight, and 3b is mislynched tomorrow, how does Clidd win at LYLO? Presumably through mislynching Holden? I don't see scum!Clidd limiting himself this much.

- 1183, 1186, 1191 And here comes the wack play out of left field. All day Clidd gives reasons to believe Kirari is scum, yet he suddenly believes that Kirari must be town because of meta. The thing is, this makes me TR Clidd more. If scum!Clidd wanted to defense scum!Kirari, why start now? Why add fuel to the fire only to try to fan it out later?

The rest of Clidd's iso is a mish mash of providing NAI insight into why he values this sort of meta read (1204), saying that this sort of meta read is weak (1207), stating that nothing Kirari has done in this game gives him reason to believe Kirari is town (1217), believing his meta read is correct (1231), and trying to get me to propose a solve that assumes town Kirari, Monkey, and Clidd (1243). That last post is really weird because I'm also town in this solve, so he's basically asking me to propose a solve with a scumpool of {Yooh, Holden, 3b}, which doesn't make sense to ask because if we're to assume that scum is within those three, we are starting from a winning solve that needs no elaboration. I don't understand where he's coming from here, but I often don't understand exactly where Clidd is coming from and that's kinda why he ends up at some unique conclusions that I find very valuable as town. I can see

why he would make this play if he believe this play is correct

, however, even if I cannot see

why he thinks this play is correct

. In our previous encounter, I (town) was the only player in the entire game to defend him (town) against an overwhelmingly town wagon. He seems to think highly of me. I think town!Clidd truly believes Kirari is town, and that he will defend Kirari to the best of his ability even if he's the only player in the game to do so.

If the game goes to 3p LYLO, Kirari is red, and Clidd is alive, it's okay to resort his slot, but I think that following a red!Kirari flip town should never be lynching Clidd D3. If Kirari flips green, then Kirari has tried hard enough to lose that town probably loses anyway, but we lynch Monkey and go from there. If Kirari flips red, we lynch between 3b and Holden D3 and if we hit wrong then we look at all possibilities D4 LYLO before committing to a lynch. The way I see it, if Kirari flips red, and we miss D3, LYLO looks like {Clidd, 3b/Holden, Monkey/Yooh} depending on the D3 lynch and the N3 kill. The survivor of Monkey/Yooh gets the pressure of correctly finding the last mafia at that point.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1266 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:31 pm

Wrapping back around to the beginning of the game.

- I had a 3p wagon on me (L-2) by 18. Looking at my VCA I was worried about the likelihood of an all-town wagon on me, but that worry was caused by the wagon appearing at VCA [4], which led me to believe it occurred much later than it did. My assumption was that if my wagon was all-town, mafia has high incentive to push my wagon further. However, looking back, it clearly happened in RVS, and it would be very suspect for anyone to put me at L-1 that early.

- 33 Peaches/Clidd votes off-wagon, but doesn't contribute to an existing wagon which could be to avoid a counterwagon forming.

- 35 3b also votes off-wagon, and also doesn't contribute to an existing wagon. However, he does throw shade at my slot (36) and his read in that post does not correlate with him voting neither me nor Monkey. The thing is, if scum!Kirari + scum!3b, why doesn't 3b vote Monkey and make sure both town wagons are at 3 votes? I kinda feel that scum!3b's vote here makes the most sense if it's 3b/Monkey. If Kirari flips green, lynching Monkey ==> 3b is probably the only way we win, but Kirari is red so w/e.

- 38 Holden throws shade at my slot here without doing anything to further his read on me.

- 42 See above.

- 46 See above.

- 51 He has repeatedly thrown shade at my slot, and now he wants Monkey to give him reason to believe I'm scum. ?????????????

I'm going to take a break because at this point if I keep reading Holden's iso I'm going to confbias scumreads on him, perhaps unfairly. I do think these posts all point towards scum!Holden, but I also think that I believe that strongly enough that I am going to start assuming that the following posts point towards scum!Holden even if they don't. I'm not sure if that makes sense to y'all, but it makes sense in my head.

clidd · Post Post #1267 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:50 am

Excellent. This is why I would've killed you N1 as scum.

To be more clear: my analysis of impressions pointed out that Kirari was scum, which was aggravated by the metaread I mentioned in the Large-game in which she performed similarly to what we saw in that game (as scum). However, there were some things she said in the last pages (about me) that made me reflect on the purpose of pushing me on the Scum!Kirari scenario, because if she knows that she will be lynched, the push at the last moment on my slot will only it would serve to increase my credibility as town and harm her partner's game. I believe that in the situation of eminent lynch, it would make more sense for her to be quiet to not attract more associations. Which is basically the doubt that encouraged me to seek information from the meta about the other players, as it is very likely that if town!Kirari is real, at least 1 of the two scums is playing towny and that would imply that I am townreading scum , although I am still not sure who it is. Even though town!Kirari didn't play appropriately, if there is a speck of chance that, with her lynch, the game will go to lylo tomorrow, it is extremely
interesting anticipating and preventing this theoretical situation from materializing in practice. Obviously, it will take me a relatively long time to complete my studies in the meta research I am doing, but I believe this will expand my senses abour the scumgame / towngame of each individual outside the Scum!Kirari field.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1268 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:19 am

Clidd, I hope you realize that no matter what you present, Kirari is today's lynch, and I am the NK. If Kirari is a miss, we're looking at a LYLO tomorrow of {Clidd, Monkey, Holden, Yooh, 3b}. We have plenty of time, depending on your availability to work through a town!Kirari plan for tomorrow, but I think before investigating that you should commit your energy to finding who makes the most sense as a Kirari partner.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1269 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:29 am

Also, I would be wary of reading into anything Kirari has said since my claim. If she flips green, we can revisit it. If she flips red, everything she's said after my claim is WIFOM and is of very little value.

LuckyLuciano · Post Post #1270 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:30 am

@Clidd, while you are here, can you help me understand this?

In post 1265, LuckyLuciano wrote:- 962 Clidd gives a reason for town!Kirari, and a reason for scum!Kirari. His reason for town!Kirari is that he feels there is a degree of towny in Kirari's 942. I fail to see how 942 looks any different from one Kirari alignment to the other. @Clidd, can you elaborate here?

humaneatingmonkey · Post Post #1271 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:32 am

yo i've been reading this game and i think kirari is town and the scum team is holden/clidd and 3b.

i can hear it: your question is — why didn't they push town!kirari or go for that quickhammer?

if we agree 100% that LL is tracker (and we're not in column three), they already know there's a tracker in the set-up. they know that they couldn't push kirari because kirari was the obvious target for tpr's n1. my guess is that they were counting on Kirari being cleared today. unfortunately, Yooh and LL happened. i think from town POV, Kirari is the obvious lynch — which is what they were counting on.

I just don't think scum reacts the way they did today.

both golden golden and called has dipped in the pool, but never committed to a Kirari lynch.

I think it's never Yooh this game, especially after that 1v1. I think that if scum wanted Kirari as the mislynch today, it would have 100% happened already.

I'm not sure about who between clidd and HoldenGolden, but I'm willing to VOTE: 3bounty get this out of the way.

just a super hot take from my read through tonight. discuss.

i'll post more tomorrow. for now, good night.

clidd · Post Post #1272 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:40 am

In post 1270, LuckyLuciano wrote:@Clidd, while you are here, can you help me understand this?

In post 1265, LuckyLuciano wrote:- 962 Clidd gives a reason for town!Kirari, and a reason for scum!Kirari. His reason for town!Kirari is that he feels there is a degree of towny in Kirari's 942. I fail to see how 942 looks any different from one Kirari alignment to the other. @Clidd, can you elaborate here?

I will once I'm get to home (working).

humaneatingmonkey · Post Post #1273 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:41 am

i 100% expected scum!Kirari to just up and give up, AtE, stay quiet, and avoid associations. but she did the complete opposite.

clidd · Post Post #1274 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:43 am

In post 1273, humaneatingmonkey wrote:i 100% expected scum!Kirari to just up and give up, AtE, stay quiet, and avoid associations. but she did the complete opposite.

Same.