Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[LuckyLuciano]

I think that if scum wanted Kirari as the mislynch today, it would have 100% happened already.

How do you reconcile this with your belief that Kirari is town? Are you arguing that (1) Kirari is town, (2) mafia could have pushed the mislynch on Kirari by now, and (3) mafia has chosen not to mislynch Kirari? How do you explain the wagon on Kirari stalling?

Let me offer a hypothetical. If we lynch between {Holden, Clidd, 3b} today like you seem to propose, and we lynch town, do you really think Kirari isn't an easy lynch tomorrow? If not tomorrow, does Kirari survive at LYLO? Leaving Kirari alive, even if he's town, feels like an automatic loss for town, unless he's scum and we lynch his partner and proceed to lynch him next, in which case we should have just lynched him today. That's pretty much why I've been saying that if Kirari is town, we've lost anyway.

[LuckyLuciano]

Why is scum expected to play poorly when caught, especially when they are not mechanically caught? Do you think the same player who classified himself as the most capable player in the game would give up and AtE when there's a non-mechanically driven case against them?

[clidd]

Luciano, relax. Take a break.

[LuckyLuciano]

Like, you are saying mafia is {Holden + Clidd / 3b}, and you are saying mafia could mislynch Kirari if they want, but the Kirari lynch hasn't happened yet. You are proposing that the 100% town wagon of {Yooh, Monkey, Lucky} was hard pushed against another townies {Kirari} and mafia just said, "Yo fuck it guys, that lynch is too easy, we don't want it}. I don't know how to comprehend what you are saying?!?!?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Like an old fool once told, I'd rather lynch scum than town. I think Kirari is town based on her reactions to her wagon, and the gamestate that surrounded it. That's what was wrong from this game.

I am arguing that Kirari is town, mafia counts on Kirari's lynch while the town polcy lynches her, and that the mafia chooses to get towncred by distancing themselves from Kirari's eventual lynch.

I think town!Kirari can survive LYLO more so than me, Holden or clidd who you have all painted as scum based on her flip.

[clidd]

Something is wrong.

This is why i said that. Game state seems weird.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Why is scum expected to play poorly when caught, especially when they are not mechanically caught? Do you think the same player who classified himself as the most capable player in the game would give up and AtE when there's a non-mechanically driven case against them?

because i've been in these situations before and i recognize that this is not normal behavior from scum at all. if the narrative fits that she has done the work for her roleblocker buddy, then she would expect a lynch today. she knows it's coming. she won't avoid it. that's 100% everyone believes, and i think scum!kirari would catch that. i don't know how to explain that besides the recognition.

[LuckyLuciano]

So you are proposing that mafia wants to sit out the lynch, and have 4 town lynch town!Kirari? So wouldn't that mean the best play is to not make that public knowledge and observe at what point 3b / Holden / Clidd decide to join the wagon, if ever?

You're hurting my head Monkey. It feels like you popped in and threw a flashbang at me.

[LuckyLuciano]

Did you take a moment to look at when the Yooh vs Kirari 1v1 happened? It was in between when I unvoted, faking a strong TR on Kirari, and when I claimed.

[humaneatingmonkey]

no. the best play is to call out why the game has been stalling and hard to get in the flow of — which is what i'm doing now. everything feels like scum machination. don't you feel it?

[humaneatingmonkey]

they've had it in the bag for 3 IRL days now. all they need to do is to help move it along.

[LuckyLuciano]

In other words, because of my fake TR, the mafia's perception of Kirari's chances of survival were much higher than they became after I claimed. If you are trying to argue that Kirari would avoid the 1v1 with Yooh because her lynch is inevitable, you need to also realize that at the time of the 1v1, her lynch didn't look inevitable and I even said I would wager the entire game on her being Town, meaning they had at least 1 townie who they could count on to defend her.

[humaneatingmonkey]

but her lynch WAS inevitable, LL. that was what i was saying — your claim was unnecessary. before that, town would lynch her through sheer apathy and confusion

[LuckyLuciano]

1063

Start reading from this point and tell me Kirari should hide under a rock.

[humaneatingmonkey]

bro Yooh, me, clidd was in on it HARD. All scum had to do was wait until the tracker clears her, and join at the last minute if she wasn't cleared.

[humaneatingmonkey]

remember it's 4 to lynch.

[LuckyLuciano]

At the point I faked that I was siding with Kirari, mafia was looking at worst at a 4v3, where if they could get just 1 townie to join their side they mislynch, take me to LYLO, and win. Holden wasn't committed. 3b wasn't committed. Clidd hadn't been committed enough to drop a vote. It looked like I was going to hard defend Kirari and help sway people.

Pedit: Are you reading what you post? You are saying that mafia was waiting for the tracker to clear Kirari to push her lynch? That doesn't make sense...

[LuckyLuciano]

I am going to take that break now. I'm trying to put Monkey's into logical terms in my head and none of it is even inductively viable.

[humaneatingmonkey]

no. mafia was waiting for tracker IF they're gonna clear Kirari. if the tracker does not clear Kirari, they're gonna join the wagon.

[LuckyLuciano]

Eh, I see what you were saying with that point. How can you argue though that mafia was waiting for tracker to out themself, while also ignoring that Kirari baited the tracker this DP?

[humaneatingmonkey]

hot take but i think Kirari's just bad at this game.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm dipping for a bit. I gotta get some space. My vote is always ending on Kirari today though, so if they are town, you guys are going to need all 4 townies outside of me to coalesce on scum. I don't see a world where Kirari is neither mafia, nor the unluckiest town ever for the way her FPS aligned with mafia knowledge at each stage of the game.

[humaneatingmonkey]

the tracker didn't even need to out themselves. all they need to do was find who didn't want to lynch Kirari as much when she's at L-1 and it's 1 or 2 days remaining.

[humaneatingmonkey]

she was placed in a "soft L-1" with me, Yooh, clidd have intent to lynch. If clidd was one of the mafia, the buddy would join. If clidd was town, the mafia can secure the mislynch despite one voter unvoting.

[HoldenGolden]

A big problem I have with town!Kirari, is why did the wagon stall if he's town? If you want to argue that scum wants to avoid hammering, how come after I unvote and disappear for some time there's isn't additional pressure on him? It feels highly strategic for scum to support a town!Kirari lynch, especially if both are off the wagon. Do we ever think the scumteam is really Yooh + Monkey? Probably not. So what scum team of Yooh + X or Monkey + X makes sense? Btw, if Kirari is town, Monkey has to be scum imo.

It didnt stall at all till I posted my analysis of thread sentiment and even then the main focus of today has been kirari.

On the same page you did the peace out, yooh came in and had discussions about kirari's hammer vote and that's what started their interaction.

I dont think scum would be afraid to hammer there especially if kirari is town. Earlier in the day phase they would be a bit more cautious I think, but now that have plenty of ammo to justify pulling the trigger.

Honestly you could argue too that town!kirari is incorrect on their reads and/or at the same time helping mafia decrease town morale overall providing them a better chance at lylo