Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[Kirari Momobami]

There is no connection between my confidence on him and the soft-mason scenario, as that would be very predictable and basically an insult to my game as PR.

to be clear since my thought process was probably confusing, I wasn't accusing you of deliberately softing mason, rather it reflects how I didn't get where your confidence on HEM was coming from outside of that

I wish you would have linked the games over color coding them

still let me find the one HEM post that did kinda ping me

[clidd]

I'm rereading it again and you're saying Holden would have caught him if he was scum which is not a sentiment I would agree with necessarily given Holden's sporadic interest in this game, as well as the fact that Holden catching him once before hardly guarantees a 100% readrate

Anyway your other point that he's polarized I guess I can see but he's only 50 posts above 1946 which is still I think in the typical margin of error for a developing scum player

I'm not even married to HEM scum, if he's town I'd absolutely love to get him out of my PoE, I just still don't really get why you're moving him out of your PoE or see anything that would actually change my "in PoE" read that he's been in for a lot of the game

It does not guarantee, but it is more likely to occur. Monkey has no scum wins and from what I read in both games, his scum game is not as promising as Holden's, for example. I feel that due to the competence that Holden has as much as town (as well as scum too), they provide the necessary experience, along with the knowledge he obtained from Monkey scumgame, to facilitate the reading of Scum!Monkey's behavior and eventually catch it.

Well, if your PoE doesn’t change with anything I’ve said, this is something particular of you lol. My instance of him are basically emotional reads, so I don't know if I can explain to you.

[Kirari Momobami]

i agree that with the way it's going, we should definitely be wary of the fast tracking of kirari's wagon. however, i dont understand why you think kirari is town for this. i also dont understand why you think 3b/kirari is impossible. i also agree that if kirari is scum, someone will try to counter push it.

either 1. it's you, and you're trying to counter push it. 2. 3b is trying to take a temperature of your opinion on 3b so he can know it's good to bus. 3. its not kirari, and im bad at this game.

these are my premature thoughts.

is this a post you see coming from a scum HEM?

I specifically disliked "if kirari is scum, someone will try to counter push it", "its not kirari, and im bad at this game" and the characterization of the post as "premature thoughts"

[Kirari Momobami]

I mean tbh I don't mind the idea that Yooh pulled his shitty tunnel on me as scum, I'm not entirely sure I'm sold on it but it would make me hate this game slightly less

[LuckyLuciano]

Clidd, I hope you realize that no matter what you present, Kirari is today's lynch, and I am the NK. If Kirari is a miss, we're looking at a LYLO tomorrow of {Clidd, Monkey, Holden, Yooh, 3b}. We have plenty of time, depending on your availability to work through a town!Kirari plan for tomorrow, but I think before investigating that you should commit your energy to finding who makes the most sense as a Kirari partner.

Look, I'm not so confident in Scum!Kirari at the moment, especially because of the way most players retreat to her lynch. It is evident that there is a distance from the mafia of a lynch that will be potentially mafia. I don't remember exactly, but I believe that after I mentioned the possibility of Kirari being town, a line of collective thoughts about this theory stagnated the game state, which for me is an indication that the mafia has chosen to agree with this hypothesis as well.

I changed one word in the quote. Reread it and tell me it doesn't make as much sense as what you originally wrote.

[clidd]

i agree that with the way it's going, we should definitely be wary of the fast tracking of kirari's wagon. however, i dont understand why you think kirari is town for this. i also dont understand why you think 3b/kirari is impossible. i also agree that if kirari is scum, someone will try to counter push it.

either 1. it's you, and you're trying to counter push it. 2. 3b is trying to take a temperature of your opinion on 3b so he can know it's good to bus. 3. its not kirari, and im bad at this game.

these are my premature thoughts.

is this a post you see coming from a scum HEM?

I specifically disliked "if kirari is scum, someone will try to counter push it", "its not kirari, and im bad at this game" and the characterization of the post as "premature thoughts"

I agree that the comment

"its not kirari, and im bad at this game"

is very strange in the general context of the post, because if it is approaching several different angles, it is normal that there are inaccuracies, as it is not possible that all the discriminated scenarios are true. This combined with the last line where he feels the need to classify the value of the reasoning to avoid reprisals under the justification that the speculations were not serious, suggests a certain caution in expressing his opinion. It is not as natural as the other posts I read, but it is possible that it is a tension that Town!Hem was feeling at that moment, probably connected to the strange stagnant game state we are in.

[clidd]

Correction:

is probably connected to the strange stagnant game state we are in.

[clidd]

I changed one word in the quote. Reread it and tell me it doesn't make as much sense as what you originally wrote.

Which post ?

Spoiler:

I hope you are not irritated by the situation that Kirari is not receiving votes.

[clidd]

Do I look weird with my current avatar ?

[Kirari Momobami]

I mean the gamestate isn't strange, no one is arguing we're actually in C, and LL has made it clear that he's no longer playing the game so scum don't actually have to do anything to win here. The only slots with any reason to play are town, and they have no reason to play since the game looks like an almost certain loss given the behavior of slots that have the highest likelihood to be town.

Basically we need every single town to consolidate on someone that isn't me, and if Yooh is town and you're incorrect on that read, then it is functionally impossible to lynch scum today. In that scenario, why post as scum? All you'd be doing is confirming that you were around and thus not a contender to be one of the three non-Lucky/non-Kirari towns

pedit: you look magnificent clidd

[LuckyLuciano]

@Clidd, I changed 1 word in your quote to change your theory that tries to correlate the day stagnating with mafia not wanting to lynch town. I think the day stagnating also correlates with mafia not wanting to lynch mafia. And I'm not irritated at Kirari not getting votes. Y'all can do what you want to do, my vote is on Kirari today. They very evidently open-wolfed this game. If they are town and open-wolfed anyway, I don't blame myself if we lose. When somebody open-wolfs, you treat them as a wolf and lynch them.

[clidd]

I mean the gamestate isn't strange, no one is arguing we're actually in C, and LL has made it clear that he's no longer playing the game so scum don't actually have to do anything to win here. The only slots with any reason to play are town, and they have no reason to play since the game looks like an almost certain loss given the behavior of slots that have the highest likelihood to be town.

Basically we need every single town to consolidate on someone that isn't me, and if Yooh is town and you're incorrect on that read, then it is functionally impossible to lynch scum today. In that scenario, why post as scum? All you'd be doing is confirming that you were around and thus not a contender to be one of the three non-Lucky/non-Kirari towns

pedit: you look magnificent clidd

Yeah, you're right. The problem I noticed in this game is that at one point in the day, everyone seemed to have a towny tone, which made it difficult to locate who is scum and who is not. As a matter of effort, I believe 3bounty has a good chance of being scum. If there was a meta at Yooh, I could tell if his reaction to the clash with you earlier was towny or manufactured. I expected it to be easier, especially as it is a Newbie game, but this is probably one of the most difficult games to solve since I joined the forum.

[clidd]

@Clidd, I changed 1 word in your quote to change your theory that tries to correlate the day stagnating with mafia not wanting to lynch town. I think the day stagnating also correlates with mafia not wanting to lynch mafia. And I'm not irritated at Kirari not getting votes. Y'all can do what you want to do, my vote is on Kirari today. They very evidently open-wolfed this game. If they are town and open-wolfed anyway, I don't blame myself if we lose. When somebody open-wolfs, you treat them as a wolf and lynch them.

But if Scum!Kirari is true, only her partner would not be able to stop all the votes. Didn't you notice that shortly after I suggested that Kirari might be town, everyone started to back off ? Wouldn't it make more sense if both scums retreated at the same time and this caused a wave of voting redirects ?

[Kirari Momobami]

I mean as a matter of function, if the day continues as it is I have to vote 3b out of naked survivalism and my read of him functionally doesn't matter if he is not!me and the!only!other!wagon

I'm actually not even sure why I'm still playing this game tbh, part of me wants to not break my hot streak in newbie queue but this is definitely the worst newbie game I have ever seen so it's like...*shrug*

[clidd]

Hum.

[Kirari Momobami]

I suppose in theory I should be pre-flipping 1 of {Yooh/LL} scum just so that the game at least appears winnable in order to bother playing lol

there we go, that sweet sweet Yooh/3b scumteam, mmm delicious

[clidd]

My current thought is that the town friendly neighbor was jailkept last night actually

The reason I think that is that that is the worst possible scenario for town and this kinda feels like one of those games

Hey Kirari, were you claiming there ?

[clidd]

Nevermind, you weren't.

[clidd]

Luciano, are you there ? I need you.

[3bounty]

VOTE: Kirari L-1 your move Clidd.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Hello I got prodded.

I'm sorry for my absence. Blame video games.

Will get in soon.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Kirari I see this post referenced every time you want to paint me as scum. Why is that scummy?

[clidd]

VOTE: Kirari L-1 your move Clidd.

[Kirari Momobami]

VOTE: 3b

[Kirari Momobami]

Kirari I see this post referenced every time you want to paint me as scum. Why is that scummy?

Because it's hedging but not in a townie way

Anyway clidd says you're town and my reads don't matter today so *shrug*