Mini Normal 2132 [Game Over]

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma seems very detached from this particular game. he pops in asking something that could be answered by reading the thread, a lot. The lack of activity doesn't help him, and I also think he's most likely to have bussed Chem

im not really concerned with your level of activity because im not sure if that's AI for you. i am sad you never engaged with my earlier questions for you though :c

I feel pretty strongly that scum busses tictac-chem here, and it's a matter of finding who is most likely on the wagon. I don't think Alo is scum. Hectic could have done it as a planned bus, but i find that less likely than the other options. profii's "Good enough for me" after hectic made the case does not sit well with me. Cat helped start the pressure, but it was very early on so only minor town points. i dont have a read on holden.

Gamma, amazingly enough, voted both before there was any lynch pressure (in RVS), and then voted again a second time when it felt like the Chem lynch was mostly agiven (thinking he put her to L-1). Holden is a null.

So, therefore, Gamma>profii>Holden>Cat>Hectic>Alo.

If i said, "My two strongest scumreads are the inactives", thatd imply im scumreading them for that reason, which i only partly do in Gammas case.

Also, just above profii and Gamma on my readslist, im considering bob and Aaron as potential chem defending partners. neither of them were inactive at the end of d1

Tbh if I was looking at my voting from an uninformed perspective that would look like a good bus, voting in RVS and then when the pressure was on. Can’t really speak for why I’m detached rn, but what are these questions you asked? I’m sure you noticed I responded to bob’s questions, so it should be evident I’ll answer if I notice them.

[Gamma Emerald]

Why is Bob doing VCA in D2

Its not a full VCA; its not necessarily analyzing the motives for everyone coming onto the wagons and seems more him removing wake from it due to the town read. I do find it funny posts like that get called VCA though when a VCA in theory is much more indepth.

Gamma where are you at game and read wise? You feel reserved.

I’m pretty much nowhere when it comes to the game but I’ll get there eventually. Reads I’ll politely decline to answer.

Now please answer me straight for my question because that is just subverting it.

Gamma, why are you concerned with making Holden answer your question about why Bobman is doing VCA? Why not ask Bobman directly?

Because I didn’t like Holden dodging the question with a disqualifying statement (it’s not VCA it’s xyz) rather than tell me why Bob did the “not-VCA”. Me being incorrect about something is doesn’t mean I don’t still want to know why it is being done.

[bob3141]

Waka flocka flame has rolled scum in the last year

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=81560

Oh God lol. I remember reading a bit of that when it was happening and I thought Wake's entrance felt a lot townier than usual.

Oh shit

Didn't realize town won that game

yay!

Also AaronFFrost gets townpoints for the Survivor meme

So other than this meme what do you think of arraon.

What points though out the game have left you thinking aaron is town. And at any point has anything he has doen even for bit caused you to reconsider? Even if was onyl short.

I remember seeing others calling Aaron scum but none of the reasoning has stuck with me so I’m going to assume the cases weren’t that good. Besides that I don’t really have much on him.

Any reason why you’re hitting me and me specifically with this battery of questions?

simply put you were the first name on the chemist wagon. So you were first

[bob3141]

Plus when i was reading through your iso I saw allot of it was light on depth.

[Gamma Emerald]

Ok then

Btw while I want Holden to answer if he can I would also like an answer from you. Why were you doing what looked like VCA?

[davesaz]

I wouldn't expect gamma to bus, it would have been easy to vote alo and just say something generic like "probably shouldn't lynch a PR guys" rather than a seemingly naked vote

So I'm not going to join the wagon, still happy with aaron

Really? I would see that reasoning as really scummy if anyone had tried it yesterday.

Gamma was voting Misty without giving any reasons for Misty being scum. It's not like he was trying to convince us it was the best vote, so his vote probably didn't make a huge difference on the end result of the day's outcome.

On top of that there is the continuing possibility that both wagons were on scum, and Aloratom has a better PR.

[Morning Tweet]

even if it is SvS, i still expect third scum on tictac-Chem most likely

@Gamma

i never asked you a question. I thought i asked profii but turns out i didnt really

[profii]

I wouldn't expect gamma to bus, it would have been easy to vote alo and just say something generic like "probably shouldn't lynch a PR guys" rather than a seemingly naked vote

So I'm not going to join the wagon, still happy with aaron

Really? I would see that reasoning as really scummy if anyone had tried it yesterday.

Gamma was voting Misty without giving any reasons for Misty being scum. It's not like he was trying to convince us it was the best vote, so his vote probably didn't make a huge difference on the end result of the day's outcome.

I've seen Gamma as scum go quite defensive of a scum lynch so I guess he isn't a busser but who knows

[profii]

Hmmm I'm struggling to read people for the most part here. Not really finding any SRs so far other than that early Holden ping which is odd for me.

Honestly, I'm kinda feeling the same way rn. I have no real scum reads and a few weak town leans on cakez, dave and hectic.

I town read all these players

-Hectic was the target of many actions, no one is jumping up and saying 'this is potentially a guilty' so I'm assuming nothing untowards
-Cakez flipped town
-Dave, I think I've seen a dave town tell but it only happened recently


so the weird thing is, even though it's weak, Aaron got 3 reads 'right' as far as my mind is working, way earlier in the game. I don't mean to infer that this is not possible or I am a superior player obviously - but I'm obviously getting at the point that scum just know so it could easily be that.

You're scumreading Aaron because he got 3 reads right, 2 of which might still be wrong? You're using your own assessment of your townreads on Hectic/Dave to establish AaronFF is probably right about them, and TMIed them early. That's... not great reasoning, especially since AFF listed them as "weak town leans".

Well I dont see any players putting billboards up with the game solve on so...

[profii]

I wouldn't expect gamma to bus, it would have been easy to vote alo and just say something generic like "probably shouldn't lynch a PR guys" rather than a seemingly naked vote

So I'm not going to join the wagon, still happy with aaron

Really? I would see that reasoning as really scummy if anyone had tried it yesterday.

Gamma was voting Misty without giving any reasons for Misty being scum. It's not like he was trying to convince us it was the best vote, so his vote probably didn't make a huge difference on the end result of the day's outcome.

On top of that there is the continuing possibility that both wagons were on scum, and Aloratom has a better PR.

This is stupid but part of my reasoning for picking Chemist over Alo was gamberlers fallacy.

We just rolled scum together in the last game we played so given day 1 is always a bit of a guess, hectic seemed confident in the meta read, gamberlers fallacy, boom chemist.

Ha

[bob3141]

one think i will need to look at is how dead chemist was.

You have two main bussing places. early 1-2 and swing point of the wagon 3-5

If scum bussed 1-2 they can become trapped as if the slot flips it creates associations. Normally early bussers are teh last to unvote if the slot is rescued


Then you have the swing part of the wagon. Tends to be town if scum think it can be rescued. If they think its doomed then thats were scum rush to be on it

[bob3141]

Actually, I think I want to ask a followup question.

How much weight are you giving VCA vs posting?

Mostly posting with the votecounts more forming a frame work that i navigate the game through.

[Gamma Emerald]

I wouldn't expect gamma to bus, it would have been easy to vote alo and just say something generic like "probably shouldn't lynch a PR guys" rather than a seemingly naked vote

So I'm not going to join the wagon, still happy with aaron

Really? I would see that reasoning as really scummy if anyone had tried it yesterday.

Gamma was voting Misty without giving any reasons for Misty being scum. It's not like he was trying to convince us it was the best vote, so his vote probably didn't make a huge difference on the end result of the day's outcome.

I've seen Gamma as scum go quite defensive of a scum lynch so I guess he isn't a busser but who knows

I trend towards non-busser but I will do it if it makes sense to me strategically and for optics

[Hectic]

Morning feels like she's focusing too much about finding "the" scum that was bussing. I'm not sure where this confidence comes from and it kinda feels agenda-driven honestly. Morning, can you see a world where both scum were off the Misty wagon? Don't make me bring out the chinchillas - unless they're like an edge case that you're actually really fond of.

Gamma, can we get a reads list from you?

[Hectic]

Hmmm I'm struggling to read people for the most part here. Not really finding any SRs so far other than that early Holden ping which is odd for me.

Honestly, I'm kinda feeling the same way rn. I have no real scum reads and a few weak town leans on cakez, dave and hectic.

I town read all these players

-Hectic was the target of many actions, no one is jumping up and saying 'this is potentially a guilty' so I'm assuming nothing untowards
-Cakez flipped town
-Dave, I think I've seen a dave town tell but it only happened recently


so the weird thing is, even though it's weak, Aaron got 3 reads 'right' as far as my mind is working, way earlier in the game. I don't mean to infer that this is not possible or I am a superior player obviously - but I'm obviously getting at the point that scum just know so it could easily be that.

You're scumreading Aaron because he got 3 reads right, 2 of which might still be wrong? You're using your own assessment of your townreads on Hectic/Dave to establish AaronFF is probably right about them, and TMIed them early. That's... not great reasoning, especially since AFF listed them as "weak town leans".

Well I dont see any players putting billboards up with the game solve on so...

No, but my point is that your reason for scumreading Aaron relies on you being right on 2 townreads, and thinking that AaronFF was TMI reading them town rather than actually just having decent reads early.

That's a lot of assumptions to make.

[Morning Tweet]

Don't make me bring out the chinchillas - unless they're like an edge case that you're actually really fond of.

chinchillas?!?! that wont be necessary-! ill elaborate on why it is so likely

Dave, Aaron, Wake, Bob, and myself were off-wagon.

Wake is town
Dave is lean town, no more comments as of yet
Bob tried to defend Chem whilst admitting the wagon is perfectly valid
Aaron defended Chem a bit more than Bob, and now today is advocating for SvS.

Compared to the large pool of voters on wagon, itd be very hard for me to believe theres two scum here, off-wagon. it's likely inside of Aaron and Bob, and i think its unlikely that both partners would defend that particular wagon. The combination of how assured it felt + only one real counterwagon, which was weaker, makes a bus seem so likely.

So tldr; a smaller pool of potential scum off wagon, plus the nature of how that days wagons went, makes me feel it is highly likely 1, possibly 2 scum are on wagon.

[davesaz]

Actually, I think I want to ask a followup question.

How much weight are you giving VCA vs posting?

Mostly posting with the votecounts more forming a frame work that i navigate the game through.

I got the impression that you were focusing the other way around, looking at VC and then finding posting.

If you didn't have VCA whose posting is the sketchiest? That can include their reasoning for votes, don't want to be too limiting. The point of this approach would be to prove to yourself and others that it isn't the VCA that's driving it. Not that it's bad to be VCA driven, just to see if it clicks.

[davesaz]

Making a note that it's 6 days to deadline, that's 3 to settle on a wagon and 3 to look for another if it's a convincing PR claim.

[Hectic]

Morning:

Why did you stay on profii for the entirety of yesterday, despite you being the only person not voting for one of the two wagons (Aloratom and tictac). profii clearly wasn't going to happen, so why didn't you pick a side?

[profii]

I wouldn't expect gamma to bus, it would have been easy to vote alo and just say something generic like "probably shouldn't lynch a PR guys" rather than a seemingly naked vote

So I'm not going to join the wagon, still happy with aaron

Really? I would see that reasoning as really scummy if anyone had tried it yesterday.

Gamma was voting Misty without giving any reasons for Misty being scum. It's not like he was trying to convince us it was the best vote, so his vote probably didn't make a huge difference on the end result of the day's outcome.

I've seen Gamma as scum go quite defensive of a scum lynch so I guess he isn't a busser but who knows

I trend towards non-busser but I will do it if it makes sense to me strategically and for optics

I specifically saw gamma non-bus on day 1 - so fairly like for like... I'm referring to overkill 2, you might have played?

[profii]

Actually, I think I want to ask a followup question.

How much weight are you giving VCA vs posting?

Mostly posting with the votecounts more forming a frame work that i navigate the game through.

I got the impression that you were focusing the other way around, looking at VC and then finding posting.

If you didn't have VCA whose posting is the sketchiest? That can include their reasoning for votes, don't want to be too limiting. The point of this approach would be to prove to yourself and others that it isn't the VCA that's driving it. Not that it's bad to be VCA driven, just to see if it clicks.

Morning:

Why did you stay on profii for the entirety of yesterday, despite you being the only person not voting for one of the two wagons (Aloratom and tictac). profii clearly wasn't going to happen, so why didn't you pick a side?

Some people are just cat people.... eurghh

[profii]

Didnt mean to quote Dave again ha

[Aloratom]

This is stupid but part of my reasoning for picking Chemist over Alo was gamberlers fallacy.

We just rolled scum together in the last game we played so given day 1 is always a bit of a guess, hectic seemed confident in the meta read, gamberlers fallacy, boom chemist.

Ha

Funny. Kind of the same reason I was giving you a slight Town lean Day 1.

[Aloratom]

I was talking about the vote count on #526. I checked again and it turns out I read it wrong and made a mistake. Hectic was the 4th voter and profii was the one who broke the tie. Wake was originally the 4th voter and then he switched his vote to you and Hectic voted Chemist. My view still hasn't changed.

If what you had understood before was that Hectic broke the tie and voted Chemist and that made Hectic Town, when in actuality it was profii who did that, why is Hectic still Town and profii not Town?

[Gamma Emerald]

Morning feels like she's focusing too much about finding "the" scum that was bussing. I'm not sure where this confidence comes from and it kinda feels agenda-driven honestly. Morning, can you see a world where both scum were off the Misty wagon? Don't make me bring out the chinchillas - unless they're like an edge case that you're actually really fond of.

Gamma, can we get a reads list from you?

No