Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[3bounty]

So why are you voting me if I am not in your bottom 2?

-Probably won't be able to get a Holden or HEM lynch.
-My two town reads are voting you.
-No lynch is bad.
-I could be wrong about my reads.

Thinking about this post, I don't really feel like you've tried very much to get a HEM lynch at least. Holden and Clidd both just did wall towncases on HEM, and you kinda just... did nothing with them. Whoever is lynched today that's not going away, and if HEM is scum one of those two have to be town

And while your two town reads are voting me, LL has openly admitted to no longer caring about this game, and Yooh is literally not here, so... why is this the wagon you have decided to compromise on rather than working to advance the gamestate in a way that makes it more readable for you or wins?

Say I accept clidd as town, which right now I'm actually happy to do. I know I'm town, so solve would have to be 2 out of Yooh, Hem, Holden. If it is Hem+Holden, do you think you can win the game tomorrow with a town!clidd? Otherwise, how do you win this game by lynching me, 3b?

How do I go about getting a lynch within a pool of 4 players, with 2 possible scum. Where all 4 are town reading eachother and scum reading me? The only two that are town are voting you. I have no choice here. It's basically an auto loss at this point. Might as well go for the chance that you're red. Which is at least a chance.

[clidd]

I'd like to talk to Yooh's replacement, if there's still time.

[clidd]

I've been imagining the possible consequences of the flips between 3bounty and Kirari as town and scum.

[clidd]

The scenario where I am wrong about 3bounty being scum seems me much worse than the scenario where I am wrong about Kirari being town.

[clidd]

It is terrible to imagine a lylo with me and Kirari together, because I believe that I have equivalence as her partner for having defended the slot for a good part of D2.

Even with a certain confidence about 3bounty being scum, I can still be wrong in this read, which would mean an ML today and a drastic drop in our chances of victory.

[clidd]

In other words, if we consider the flips:

Scum!3bounty

-> Game becomes easier. (solvable)

Scum!Kirari

-> Suspicions increase on me, but we can work together on D3 to help me indicate a lynch for D4 (solvable)

Town!3bounty

-> Suspicions rise over me and Kirari, respectively. Game becomes much more difficult (unsolvable)

Town!Kirari

-> Suspicions increase over 3bounty / Yooh due to PoE. (solvable)

I feel that regardless of Kirari's alignment, the game still has a solution route. In the case of 3bounty, 50/50 implies a route where the game becomes impossible to solve, at least from my perspective. Mathematically speaking, it would be more logical/safer to opt for a Kirari lynch here.

[clidd]

I believe that the fact that I had the hammer in two different wagons implies that both scums should probably be on the same wagon, as it seems very robotic to have two wagons on L-1 simultaneously, especially after Luciano announced himself as PR.



Which also supports the thesis that at least one of the wagons is on a scum player, because otherwise a counter-wagon would not have materialized in such a way.

[clidd]

Well, waiting for 1526.

[humaneatingmonkey]

How come the game is unsolvable if 3bounty flips town? It's still solvable.

[humaneatingmonkey]

The way to break his tunnel is to inform him that he's actually scummier than me despite claim. Once he no longer perceives himself as a UTR and no longer can hide behind his claim, he might feel compelled to start playing the game again. Given he already spent this day lying about his read of me, he seems to recognize the value of political reads. So people should be saying LL is scum here even if they think he's town and even if they would never lynch him tomorrow.

Didn't you just destroy your tactic after verbalizing this?

Honestly, I'm getting the vibe that this isn't sincere. I'm reading this more as a way to excuse yourself from your attempt to steer the town towards a state in which we think LL is scum. Notably, after everyone thinks you're scum for this.

The more Kirari stays with us, the more my read on her degrades. If clidd is right about scum being on two wagons at once, I'm imagining it could be in town!3bounty's wagon.

Now I understand why clidd is having a hard time.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Also, both HoldenGolden and clidd townreading me after I have decided it's 3bounty + HG/clidd is frightening.

At this rate, LYLO is HG, clidd, monkey — depending whether or not the Yooh replacement changes the read on the slot.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Actually I think it's worth revisiting Yooh.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Guys I'm gonna level with you. I'm getting less and less interested in mafia. Between my job and video games, I'm finding it hard to find a mafia a place in my heart. However, I'm gonna stay in this game just so we can finish it in one piece.

[clidd]

How come the game is unsolvable if 3bounty flips town? It's still solvable.

So are you comfortable having to evaluate Kirari and the reasons why, theoretically, I would have hammered the opposite wagon while you are not sure about Holden and Yooh ?

lol, you're crazy.

[clidd]

The scenario above on lylo ^ is basically a loss.

[humaneatingmonkey]

How come the game is unsolvable if 3bounty flips town? It's still solvable.

So are you comfortable having to evaluate Kirari and the reasons why, theoretically, I would have hammered the opposite wagon while you are not sure about Holden and Yooh ?

lol, you're crazy.

if 3bounty is town, i think IMO that Kirari is scum (for reading 3bounty town when no one would think his posts are town, maybe TMI) and partner is probably {Holden, clidd} since Kirari vs Yooh is unlikely to be SvS. Between Holden and you, I think you are most likely Kirari's partner.

There, I solved town!3bounty.

[humaneatingmonkey]

The scenario above on lylo ^ is basically a loss.

LL, Kirari, and Yooh are more likely to be NK'd than the three of us. Personally, I think it's a better scenario than LYLO where town!Kirari is one of the participants.

[clidd]

How come the game is unsolvable if 3bounty flips town? It's still solvable.

So are you comfortable having to evaluate Kirari and the reasons why, theoretically, I would have hammered the opposite wagon while you are not sure about Holden and Yooh ?

lol, you're crazy.

if 3bounty is town, i think IMO that Kirari is scum (for reading 3bounty town when no one would think his posts are town, maybe TMI) and partner is probably {Holden, clidd} since Kirari vs Yooh is unlikely to be SvS. Between Holden and you, I think you are most likely Kirari's partner.

There, I solved town!3bounty.

Yep, that's what I'm talking about.

[clidd]

The scenario above on lylo ^ is basically a loss.

LL, Kirari, and Yooh are more likely to be NK'd than the three of us. Personally, I think it's a better scenario than LYLO where town!Kirari is one of the participants.

LL will be killed tonight. Lylo will have the same playerlist alive right now but with 3bounty or Kirari on it, depending on who will be the lynch.

[humaneatingmonkey]

You seem to think we won't hit scum today.

[humaneatingmonkey]

You don't think if town!3bounty is town, that Kirari is scum?

[clidd]

You seem to think we won't hit scum today.

Actually, this is just a manifestation of my insecurity trying to tell me which move allows me to win the game if we do a ML today.

[clidd]

You don't think if town!3bounty is town, that Kirari is scum?

It's likely.

[Kirari Momobami]

The way to break his tunnel is to inform him that he's actually scummier than me despite claim. Once he no longer perceives himself as a UTR and no longer can hide behind his claim, he might feel compelled to start playing the game again. Given he already spent this day lying about his read of me, he seems to recognize the value of political reads. So people should be saying LL is scum here even if they think he's town and even if they would never lynch him tomorrow.

Didn't you just destroy your tactic after verbalizing this?

Honestly, I'm getting the vibe that this isn't sincere. I'm reading this more as a way to excuse yourself from your attempt to steer the town towards a state in which we think LL is scum. Notably, after everyone thinks you're scum for this.

The more Kirari stays with us, the more my read on her degrades. If clidd is right about scum being on two wagons at once, I'm imagining it could be in town!3bounty's wagon.

Now I understand why clidd is having a hard time.

This is a pretty wolfy post

[humaneatingmonkey]

Taking a bunch of townie posts then saying "scummy" is nagl