Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

[eyestott]

VOTE: Knightmare491

[eyestott]

VOTE: eyetott

That's not a town mindset, it's scum trying to scare town.

I think there's a very real possibility Knight is scum trying to force a massclaim so he and his buddies can kill all the guns N1
VOTE: Knightmare491

[Knightmare491]

I wish my scum play was that god tier.

[chkflip]

Once anything is within your range, nothing is too strange.

[votato]

ok. I read ABR's iso. the full extent of the case is "obvscum." what do you want me to say? no? I dont think much of the push either way. I dont know him well enough to know tells. id say its very much NAI. I said a thing that could go either way. with more context maybe ill make more sense, or maybe his case will. towncred for helping move out of rvs i guess, but need to see more substance from him to really form an opinion.


chkflips case seems more serious in that he seems to actually mean it rather than just putting a quasi-serious vote out there to get the game moving. Thats also why i think its a lot worse. It seems to me to be a very bad scum strat to start bussing that early. Why call attention to your scumbuddy without any need to, and then why call attention to yourself by getting such an early read on a nothing case once the buddy flips scum? fluff - ok granted, its early game, shitposting seems to be acceptable, just look at firebringer. rulebreaking doesnt seem to be AI. in 54, chk votes me, which is just after this:

Spoiler:

Really love the flavor and detail in the role PMs.

My role PM is town and contains no flavour or detail. Yours does. Ipso facto, you are scum VOTE: chkflip

EZ game, folks.

. getting scumread and immediately pushing another wagon to deflect is scummy. then we have a few more posts of being pretty defensive and really digging for reasons to lynch me and ABR. finally the last couple posts actually contribute to gamesolving by discussing the whole massclaim thing.

Overall, I give this a SL, tunneling that hard that early seems like a bad play. That's why I asked the question about the PT anyway. Its great bait for scum to make a shitpush on. And I was actually wondering, but that's why I asked in the way I did. Being an ass and doing an early shitpush and making pre-flip associations he knows he can back out of if he really does get me lynched seems pretty scummy. But again, its too early to make a really serious push imo. And my reads are probably shit anyway.


As for the massclaim, best case scenario we get a 1/4 chance of hitting scum lynching a claimed gun. That's nice and all, but 1/4=4/16, while if we lynched completely randomly that would give us 21.4% odds of lynching scum. Such a small improvement is not worth telling the mafia that much info about the town. Plus if we lynch guns we start lynching the only night actions the town actually has. And if it goes wrong, we wind up losing 3 townies plus the people lost to night action for one scum. thats a pretty terrible trade. it might be worth reevaluating the mass-claim after lynching a scum, but this is a terrible awful idea right now. scum points to anyone who supports it, and extra scum points to Knightmare for not reading the thread.

[Firebringer]

do people think this is an actual plot by scum or just like a strategy u disagree with? because saying its a plot by scum is kind of stupid if u ask me.

I suggested the exact same thing.

[Knightmare491]

Once anything is within your range, nothing is too strange.

LOL

[Firebringer]

scum points to anyone who supports it, and extra scum points to Knightmare for not reading the thread.

woot i get free scum points.

[Knightmare491]

As for the massclaim, best case scenario we get a 1/4 chance of hitting scum lynching a claimed gun. That's nice and all, but 1/4=4/16, while if we lynched completely randomly that would give us 21.4% odds of lynching scum. Such a small improvement is not worth telling the mafia that much info about the town. Plus if we lynch guns we start lynching the only night actions the town actually has. And if it goes wrong, we wind up losing 3 townies plus the people lost to night action for one scum. thats a pretty terrible trade. it might be worth reevaluating the mass-claim after lynching a scum, but this is a terrible awful idea right now. scum points to anyone who supports it, and extra scum points to Knightmare for not reading the thread.

That's not the best case scenario. You make no sense.

[Knightmare491]

I don't even understand what the point of saying 1/4=4/16 there, it's also equal to 2/8, want to add any more useless numbers there?

[votato]

As for the massclaim, best case scenario we get a 1/4 chance of hitting scum lynching a claimed gun. That's nice and all, but 1/4=4/16, while if we lynched completely randomly that would give us 21.4% odds of lynching scum. Such a small improvement is not worth telling the mafia that much info about the town. Plus if we lynch guns we start lynching the only night actions the town actually has. And if it goes wrong, we wind up losing 3 townies plus the people lost to night action for one scum. thats a pretty terrible trade. it might be worth reevaluating the mass-claim after lynching a scum, but this is a terrible awful idea right now. scum points to anyone who supports it, and extra scum points to Knightmare for not reading the thread.

That's not the best case scenario. You make no sense.

you're right, scum could make a play for a scenario we all agree is worse for them. its possible. but realistically, they split 1/2 gun/rose. then if nothing goes wrong its 1/4 chance of hitting scum. if things get messed up because a townie fakeclaims or night actions mess things up, the odds go downhill. Plus we are hoping that the guns get their shots off night 1, which we cant count on.

pedit: yeah i was gonna do fractions but 3/14 isnt nice so had to swap. but like... thats what youre upset about?

[Knightmare491]

Honestly if we're gonna argue about a town lying, which is literally playing against win con at that point. Then that person just needs to be blacklisted by the entire playlist.

[Knightmare491]

you're right, scum could make a play for a scenario we all agree is worse for them. its possible. but realistically, they split 1/2 gun/rose. then if nothing goes wrong its 1/4 chance of hitting scum. if things get messed up because a townie fakeclaims or night actions mess things up, the odds go downhill. Plus we are hoping that the guns get their shots off night 1, which we cant count on.

Okay, let's suppose you are town and you chose a gun. Tell me realistically what night would you choose.

[chkflip]

This discussion has reached it's peak usefulness.

Back to your regularly-scheduled scumhunting.

So Knightmare, do you often PM mods hyper-specific scum-oriented questions about the setup they're running before you even post in thread?

[eyestott]

you're right, scum could make a play for a scenario we all agree is worse for them. its possible. but realistically, they split 1/2 gun/rose. then if nothing goes wrong its 1/4 chance of hitting scum. if things get messed up because a townie fakeclaims or night actions mess things up, the odds go downhill. Plus we are hoping that the guns get their shots off night 1, which we cant count on.

Okay, let's suppose you are town and you chose a gun. Tell me realistically what night would you choose.

1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[votato]

rather than speculating about what night people would pick, lets look at the past iterations of this game. lots of town guns picked nights other than 1. some picked as late as night 4.

[Knightmare491]

So Knightmare, do you often PM mods hyper-specific scum-oriented questions about the setup they're running before you even post in thread?

I'm a very curious person so yes.

[Knightmare491]

People in favour of massclaim(not exactly a full claim, only claiming whether you have a gun or not)

1. Knighmare491
2. FB

People not in favour

1. Scumtott
2. chkflip
3. Lillith

[Knightmare491]

People in favour of massclaim(not exactly a full claim, only claiming whether you have a gun or not)

1. Knighmare491
2. FB

People not in favour

1. Scumtott
2. chkflip
3. Lillith
4. votato
5. paragon(?)

[Knightmare491]

eyestott

That’s an overly simplistic and incorrect way of looking at things

Neutral

The fact that you don't see how this negatively impacts town is worth -2 townreadpoints.

so he scum reads me then?

except we dont know how many guns scum have!
what if they all claim rose, and manage to NK all three guns in night 1?

scare mongering

VOTE: Knightmare491

VOTE: eyetott

That's not a town mindset, it's scum trying to scare town.

I think there's a very real possibility Knight is scum trying to force a massclaim so he and his buddies can kill all the guns N1

VOTE: Knightmare491

So you're saying that in pre game chat, mafia decided that all three of them are gonna choose a night one gun, given the fact that many townies will probably choose a night 1 rose?

eyestott only commits to voting me after chkflip voted me, because he's unsure about voting me FIRST as he's worried that it might look bad.

Regarding bolded, eyestott is saying that I as scum(during pregame) somehow knew that there would be a situation that enough townies would choose guns such that a clever massclaim can help town therefore I convinced my partners to all choose night 1 guns. So that I can pull this gambit and our team can kill the x amount of townies night 1.

That ^ is BS and something nobody as scum can even think of and a town! eyestott would know that the chances of that are almost zero.

[DonCorleone]

VOTE: knightmare

[DonCorleone]

Mass claiming here hurts town tremendously and is of massive benefit to scum. This has been clearly explained by multiple people and yet knightmare is still trying to push for it to happen or arguing that it would be of benefit to town, which at this point I think has to be disingenuous.

I also agree with chkflip that him asking if the guns are in addition to a factional NK or instead of it seems like something much more likely to be asked in scum PT than asked by PM.

[DonCorleone]

rather than speculating about what night people would pick, lets look at the past iterations of this game. lots of town guns picked nights other than 1. some picked as late as night 4.

Alternatively: let’s stop setup speculating altogether and get back to playing the game!

Because setup spec is primarily useful to scum who need to aim their shots in places where they’ll get kills off and because continued discussion increases the odds someone may perspective slip their role.

[Knightmare491]

Mass claiming here hurts town tremendously and is of massive benefit to scum. This has been clearly explained by multiple people and yet knightmare is still trying to push for it to happen or arguing that it would be of benefit to town, which at this point I think has to be disingenuous.

I also agree with chkflip that him asking if the guns are in addition to a factional NK or instead of it seems like something much more likely to be asked in scum PT than asked by PM.

How is it a "massive" benefit to scum?

[DonCorleone]

Because scum’s most difficult task mechanically here is planning their shots to avoid hitting town roses and your plan allows them to do exactly that?

Especially given that if scum do have all N1 guns — which i don’t think is far fetched at all — then if they hit all of those it would be lylo on D3 without a scum lynch tomorrow, or worst case scenario it could be mylo on D2 if a single town gun chose N1 and shot town. If you don’t think “possibly puts us in D2 mylo” isn’t massively stacking the game for scum idk what to tell you.