Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

[Knightmare491]

Especially given that if scum do have all N1 guns — which i don’t think is far fetched at all

it is totally fucking far fetched.

Don't say especially because this is the only thing that is problematic with a day 1 mass claim.

[Knightmare491]

Better odds of lynching scum during the day 3/11 instead if 3/14 and, better odds of vig shooting scum with 3/10 odd if there is a town lynch day 1 and 3/11 if there is a scum lynch day 1 far outweighs the benefit of not mass claiming unless we consider your tinfoil hat theory.

[Knightmare491]

fixed

Better odds of lynching scum during the day 3/11 instead if 3/14 and, better odds of vig shooting scum with 3/10 odds if there is a town lynch day 1 and 2/10 odds if there is a scum lynch day 1 far outweighs the benefit of not mass claiming unless we consider your tinfoil hat theory.

[DonCorleone]

Err, no, it is not. It allows scum to ensure that all their additional shots get used unless one of them is lynched on D1. The optimal strategies for scum to have chosen would be either all N1 guns, N1 N2 N3 guns, or maybe weighting towards the lategadme if they're confident that they can make it that far -- like all N3 guns or 2 N3 guns 1 N4 gun.

Worth noting that despite all guns being optimal for scum one of them last game took a rose, so that's not beyond the realm of possibility here although I think it's unlikely.

Also, being in mylo tomorrow is the worst case scenario. Giving scum a LITERAL roadmap on where to shoot every night for guaranteed kills is the MOST PROSCUM thing you could be arguing for. Scum begin the game with a gigantic informational advantage of knowing who each other are and knowing which nights their abilities are useable. Mass claiming just further enhances scum knowledge.

3/11 is still an incredibly marginal increase and a shit tradeoff for anyone that's town, especially as it's technically 3/13 improving to 3/11 if someone is a gun or 3/10 if they're a rose. Namely, that's a maximum random lynch on scum increased chance of 6% if you're a rose and only 3% if you're a gun. That's a really, really, really bad trade off for the fact that scum get a guaranteed kill every night on town guns, especially as if any guns are not N1 from town then it also eliminates to possibility of vigging scum later in the game.

[Knightmare491]

Checked the past renditions, only one mafia member chose a night 1 gun, so yeah totally far fetched and unlikely that all of them chose a night 1 gun.

[DonCorleone]

There's also the fact that you're probably scum for pushing this mass claim angle which is another way to do it. As we get to flip you D1 and then roll from there.

[Knightmare491]

Not only in the last game, but even in the second one scum chose a rose.

[farside22]

It was gut earlier. But it has solidified since.

What caused the read to solidify, SirCakez? How would you expect Something_Smart to react to the votes on him if his alignment were town? I think his 77 was indirectly asking you how you had a read on his mostly contentless posts thus far.

^This!!!!!!!!
Thank you for saying what I had trouble saying.

Albert, why is votato obvscum?

Lilith, why do you townread Cakez?

The way that Cakes described his scumread and tried to explain why he was scumreading SS lines up with the way I was feeling about SS's posts. I don't think Cakes was able to clearly articulate the scumread in a way that makes sense to others, and I myself have not attempted to do so because it would likely garner the same kind of reaction Cakes got. I still believe my SS read is correct, therefore I am leaning Cakes being town since I think how he came to this read is similar to how I came to mine. I would be surprised if a scum!Cakes happened to be on such a similar wavelength to me.

Your vote is looking lonely and unused there, eyestort. Do you fancy joining me on cakez? He essentially sheeped someone else who gut read Something_Smart as scum without giving any reasons for it.

Cakes gave more reason than I ever did, are you scumreading him/why are you scumreading him over me?

Cakez push reads as trying too hard and making shit up. You read more inquisitive and pushy at SS with the back and forth.

Ahhh yes the "If I was scum" argument. Classic.

Definitely not complete WIFOM bullshit.

You are on my town list.

I think mass claim is fine given how few guns we have and how many roses there are. Just don't claim night.

Its really fine. 3 ICs is good.

Bad Fire. Bad!

do people think this is an actual plot by scum or just like a strategy u disagree with? because saying its a plot by scum is kind of stupid if u ask me.

I suggested the exact same thing.

I don't see it as a plot by scum.

you're right, scum could make a play for a scenario we all agree is worse for them. its possible. but realistically, they split 1/2 gun/rose. then if nothing goes wrong its 1/4 chance of hitting scum. if things get messed up because a townie fakeclaims or night actions mess things up, the odds go downhill. Plus we are hoping that the guns get their shots off night 1, which we cant count on.

Okay, let's suppose you are town and you chose a gun. Tell me realistically what night would you choose.

People in favour of massclaim(not exactly a full claim, only claiming whether you have a gun or not)

1. Knighmare491
2. FB

People not in favour

1. Scumtott
2. chkflip
3. Lillith
4 farside

add myself to the not doing it list.

Listen. Having ICs and all would be great, but I think if we wait a day or two and have less players the pool is less and better for the town.

Think of it this way. We lynch today and it is a town lynch we have 13 players to look through. Some gun players will have either night 1 or night 2 shots (DO NOT FUCKING CLAIM YOUR DAY) Maybe as far as 4. The point being less players and a person who shot will give a lot more info as the days go on and by letting the scum know who is carrying a gun you are giving them the opportunity at a free shot at town.

[DonCorleone]

@farside, could you vote for nightmare please?

[farside22]

Better odds of lynching scum during the day 3/11 instead if 3/14 and, better odds of vig shooting scum with 3/10 odd if there is a town lynch day 1 and 3/11 if there is a scum lynch day 1 far outweighs the benefit of not mass claiming unless we consider your tinfoil hat theory.

What about picking Rose? You can't say X gun person shots at scum pool and then believe that player didn't pick that night as well.

Yes I know the odds.

[DonCorleone]

In fact, farside, could you give me a full readslist? I want to know where you're at.

I think I'm sort of at:

farside
eyestott
votato
S_S
ABR

paragon
chkflip

icon
vecna

firebringer
Lilith

cakez
knightmare

[farside22]

@farside, could you vote for nightmare please?

I think Knightmare is scum,I don't see it coming from scum. It's actually NAI, I have seen a few players try to do things like this but unfortunately it is more coming from town thinking then scum trying because 95% of the time people find it scummy to do mass claim.

EBWOP:

Scum reads:

Not enough to say either way:
Iconeum
SS
Votato
Vecna
Firebringer
eyestott

Scum reads:
Albert B. Rampage
SirCakez

A few spots haven't even really posted. SS hasn't said much other then defending himself and I would like to see more thoughts about the game. Votato I go back and forth on. Firebringer hasn't towned it up and eyestott hasn't said anything that isn't NAI,

[farside22]

First line should be knightmare isn't scum.
*sigh* I actually was trying to preview post for once.

[Firebringer]

farside i am considering claiming just to troll u.

talk me out of it

[farside22]

farside i am considering claiming just to troll u.

talk me out of it

Troll away.
What I want is obvious town fire.
What is your thoughts on knightmare?

[Firebringer]

i have a rose

[Firebringer]

What is your thoughts on knightmare?

ehhh i guess town for same reasons u gave. although u said it wasn't really NAI, him heavy pushing it against resistance was townie

if i was really hunting for scum i would look in the people pushing him for his heavy pushing him because scum like to go for the low hanging fruit push that is knightmare rn.

Don Corleon kind of has me pinged that way

[Firebringer]

i don't think chkflip push on knightmare for that strat is AI for chkflip. He has a boomer mentality regarding the strat itself so I don't expect that to be a real "Ohh look something easy for me to push"

[farside22]

i have a rose

I have no words.

What is your thoughts on knightmare?

ehhh i guess town for same reasons u gave. although u said it wasn't really NAI, him heavy pushing it against resistance was townie

if i was really hunting for scum i would look in the people pushing him for his heavy pushing him because scum like to go for the low hanging fruit push that is knightmare rn.

Don Corleon kind of has me pinged that way

True in regards to knight.
I like your thought process for don.

[Paragon]

DonCorleone! Knightmare seems to be pushing the massclaim strategy on the basis that scum don't usually pick N1 guns. He went back and established only 1 N1 gun was picked in the previous iterations. Why do you think he's still scum openly pushing what he thinks is an anti-town strategy?

If Knightmare is scum, I don't think he pushes this strategy to take advantage of it, I think he pushes it to either get townread by pushing something strongly opinionated, or uses this as a way to make content.

[Paragon]

i have a rose

Can I have it?

[Firebringer]

if I gave u my rose, it would make my e-girlfriend very jealous.

[Firebringer]

If Knightmare is scum, I don't think he pushes this strategy to take advantage of it, I think he pushes it to either get townread by pushing something strongly opinionated, or uses this as a way to make content.

or even crazier. he believes its a good strategy. Crazy I know.

Its not a terrible strat like everyone here pretends.

[Paragon]

I don't think it's as bad as I initially thought, since previous iterations do show there's never been more than one N1 gun, but the risk is still there so idk. Giving scum guaranteed killshots is still pretty bad for the slightly better lynchpool odds.

[Something_Smart]

a town! eyestott would know that the chances of that are almost zero.

How is eyestott's ability to grasp the logic of the situation dependent on his alignment?