Mini Normal 2132 [Game Over]

[HoldenGolden]

The feeling when you are so close to finishing your final essays. God it feels great. 27 pages never have made me happier.

I have thought a bit more about Wake's claim since his recent posts have pinged me wrongly. I was in the similar boat as others, as the gambit for scum!wake doesn't make a lot of sense since I feel there are better ways of executing it. We know that he is watcher for sure since both dave and MT has confirmed their visits. But his recent posts have a glaring issue:

That's idiotic, especially if there's a high chance of Scum being in there.

You should know better, profii.

Not seeing a VC anywhere.

I don't think we should have been so quick to dismiss the Watcher results.

IF Hectic is Town I HIGHLY DOUBT there's two other Town PRs besides me that targeted Hectic.

Chances are one of Morning Tweet or davesaz is Scum.

Why are people ignoring this?

I'm not sure about Gamma being Scum.

Aloratom still lives, and Morning Tweet and Davesaz are viable suspects.

My gut is kind of bothering me about Bob, but I can't tell atm.

To me, Wake seems more focus on drawing attention to the watching result rather than actually sorting out who between Dave and MT is actually scum. If he is certain one of the two is scum, then I would expect to see him diving more into their ISO's and posting it to lead other townies to lynching one or the other especially given the clear preference for gamma today. Moreover, even if he is not sure yet about whom is scum between them, I would still think at least some Instead he echos the same info again and again. I'm struggling to find the townie motivation in it.

Spoiler:

I'm of the mindset that one of those two targeting Hectic is Scum, while someone else (not among Tweet, Dave, and Hectic) is the Scum that killed Cakez.

Ok

Do you think one of them is scum based off of play or is this just pure speculation? Like do you have any specific reason to believe this?

Do not pretend to be dense with me, Aaron.

How likely do you think it is that 3 Town PRs all targeted Hectic at the same time? Assuming Hectic is Town.

I

know

you understand what I'm saying.

I'm of the mindset that one of those two targeting Hectic is Scum, while someone else (not among Tweet, Dave, and Hectic) is the Scum that killed Cakez.

In a 10:3 game exactly how often does one Scum target another one of their own team members? I don't think it's likely. I do think that would be more likely in a larger multiball game.

ALSO, if one of Morning Tweet or Davesaz flips Scum,

that means the other one is Town

. Unless, of course, anyone here thinks this game is 9:4, which I don't believe whatsoever.

These are other posts made post claim where he does it again.

Overall, it feels that Wake after the claim took on a more reactionary stance and wants the thread to do the work rather than actually scumhunt on his own accord. This bothers me. Wake had no issues being aggressive in his scum reads day 1 with how he went after alo, yet has suddenly pulled back and is not directly doing analysis or even deeply questing his main two suspects MT and dave. The reappearing to badger town for not lynching yet coupled with the tone he took for his two suspects not being voted for seems like he wants to demoralize the thread. This is especially concerning when there

has

been some form of speculation into them by namely bob. Who, mind you, Wake has also said pinged him as scum. The whole playstyle shift makes more sense to what I expect as it does have roots in scum motivation to post.

The one issue I am having is justifying the gambit scum!wake would be running here. It clearly would be for WIFOM. I had thought scum wouldn't do it since it clears one of the PRs, but there would be no way for town to clear one of the two with a successful lynch since MT and Dave would both be town then. So I think now there is a world where scum!wake could do this.

I also have feelings to the gamma lynch so far that impacts this somewhat, but I have to check the way the votes have fallen so far to make sure i am reading the wagon dynamic correctly. TLDR on that: The lack of any real directed countermeasure to the gamma lynch concerns me as he is at 4 votes verses the second highest being 1 iirc. That, and that there are multiple 1 vote wagons as well. If gamma is scum, I feel there would be more pressure on one of these other wagons to provide gamma a way out of being lynched.

[HoldenGolden]

I want to wagon Dave. Gotta go now but I saw stuff earlier I didn't like.

Holden was calling me up last night telling me he saw Dave in his dreams, apparently there was a strongman roleblocker involved and Dave was laughing maniacally. Need to ask him about that later.

Unfortunately while you were busy fornicating with two other people, I forget my dream as my journal wasn't near by to record it. My catcher as well was broken. Was it dave? Why dave?

@Wake as well, who out of dave and MT are you reading as scum?

[HoldenGolden]

Votecount 2.04

Gamma Emerald (4): Morning Tweet, Hectic, Adorable, Aloratom
Aloratom (1): AaronFrost
AaronFrost (1): profii
HoldenGolden (0):
profii (0):
davesaz (0):
Adorable (0):
Hectic (0):
bob3141 (0):
Wake88 (0):
Morning Tweet (0):

Not Voting: HoldenGolden, Gamma Emerald, davesaz, bob3141, Wake88

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to lynch.

The day will end in (expired on 2020-05-01 23:00:00).

AaronFrost is V/LA until the 29th.
HoldenGolden is V/LA until May 1st.

The VC is what I thought it was minus one extra 1 vote wagon I had thought formed.

Now time to look at who has voiced counter measures against the gamma wagon to see if there has been sizable push back to it. Anyone is free to discuss my idea about the gamma wagon and its dynamic fyi.

[Aloratom]

I also have feelings to the gamma lynch so far that impacts this somewhat, but I have to check the way the votes have fallen so far to make sure i am reading the wagon dynamic correctly. TLDR on that: The lack of any real directed countermeasure to the gamma lynch concerns me as he is at 4 votes verses the second highest being 1 iirc. That, and that there are multiple 1 vote wagons as well. If gamma is scum, I feel there would be more pressure on one of these other wagons to provide gamma a way out of being lynched.

I tend to agree with this point. It could be because it's early/mid-phase I suppose, but there's been little movement vote wise, and with no counter to Gamma, scum seem happy to let a Gamma lynch go through.

[Aloratom]

@adorable

I'm not sure how caught up you are, but could you answer 973?

[AaronFrost]

That's kinda why I feel chem intentionally didnt say anything to avoid draw associations one way or another, faking the reading on Alo entirely. The main question now is rather or not it was done to shade alo upon flipping red, or to prevent more analysis linking to two together today.

I

'm kinda feeling like if Chem is scum and Alo is town, he tries to push Alo a little bit more in order to save himself.

Chem didn't really try too hard to save himself so either he thought there was just no point bc he thought he'd get lynched or he felt disassociated enough from his partners that he was fine with going down.

That's my issue. Chem as scum should of at least tried to push something on town!alo rather than laying down and taking the lynch without voicing any concrete reads. Now that I know he can produce content as scum when replacing into an suspicious slot, I am back pondering if the wagons were SvS.

In any case, I feel I am going to ponder this particular point too much and end up circling around in what is speculation of what scum! chem would do. Do you think trying to crack this idea is worthwhile? I've been thinking inbetween writing a paper outline about it and keep coming to some different conclusions.

The lack of progression on Alo reads as scum who's not sure what to do upon replacing in and seeing that him and his partners are both top wagons.

The one point for town!Alo is that if chem is scum, why doesn't he try to townspew Alo? Maybe he thought he couldn't do it without leading an actual lynch onto lylo or maybe he thought it would backfire and he gets lynched anyways?

I feel like you read into Chem's actions (or lack of actions, rather) too much. Chem could have been avoiding interaction with Alo because they're scumpartners, but at the same time it could have been done intentionally to make us think that. Or maybe she didn't do anything intentionally and just didn't want to post

i'm not super familiar with the independent case for Alo!scum. Early on, he was getting voted for basically nothing (Calling bob definite scum), and his responses to all the pressure he received afterwards seemed awkward.

Are there independent tells about Alo that I've missed that cause you to scumread him? I'm doubting the SvS so hard that it makes me inclined to think alo is town here

You answered your own question, it looked like Chem was deliberately avoiding interaction with Aloratom.

Can you walk me through how you're getting to town!Aloratom again?

[AaronFrost]

You have highlighted why I'm finding the logic pointless to pursue.

I think both the "He didnt interact due to not wanting to create assiocatiom" and "scum!chem most likely would of townspew scum!" Are both valid points to assume which cancel eachother other.

Also a fair point about chems partners. Who so far fits that bill for you in terms of strong townread player = scum (since alo doesnt qualify)

Hmm, maybe I am looking into it too much, I'm just having a hard time seeing town!Alo here.

As for people I strongly townread, Hectic and MT are my strongest townreads atm.

[AaronFrost]

Hmmm I'm struggling to read people for the most part here. Not really finding any SRs so far other than that early Holden ping which is odd for me.

Honestly, I'm kinda feeling the same way rn. I have no real scum reads and a few weak town leans on cakez, dave and hectic.

I town read all these players

-Hectic was the target of many actions, no one is jumping up and saying 'this is potentially a guilty' so I'm assuming nothing untowards
-Cakez flipped town
-Dave, I think I've seen a dave town tell but it only happened recently


so the weird thing is, even though it's weak, Aaron got 3 reads 'right' as far as my mind is working, way earlier in the game. I don't mean to infer that this is not possible or I am a superior player obviously - but I'm obviously getting at the point that scum just know so it could easily be that.

I honestly never thought I'd see the day where I get scumread for having decent reads early game. Townreads are also statistically more likely to be correct, so how is this scummy?

And ftr I no longer townread dave

[AaronFrost]

Not seeing a VC anywhere.

I don't think we should have been so quick to dismiss the Watcher results.

IF Hectic is Town I HIGHLY DOUBT there's two other Town PRs besides me that targeted Hectic.

Chances are one of Morning Tweet or davesaz is Scum.

Why are people ignoring this?

So which one do you think is scum then? Why aren't you putting more time in to try and figure that out if you believe there's a high probability of one scum in {MT, dave}?

[AaronFrost]

However, even then this is pretty much the kind of player I expected Hectic to be in regular games. im not convinced that meming around is a scumtell for Hectic. Unless I'm misinterpreting the case

Hectic's memeing isn't AI, that's just the Hectic I know and love (<3). Having played with him enough seeing both his town and scum games I think I have a decent tell on him that's related to his gimmicks which is why I need to know if his questions are serious.

AaronFF, wouldn't revealing this tell on me defeat the question of asking me whether my questions were serious? Aren't I just going to answer no as scum no matter what?

Not sure why you went back to this or how this is relevant, but... I didn't say what the tell was until after you answered

[AaronFrost]

The neighborizor is enabled by a townie that's died

Does that make that actual neighborizor more or less likely to be scum?

This is something I've been running through my mind ever since day start, and I'm not really sure where I'm at with that atm.

[AaronFrost]

What do you think of Dave, everyone who's online?

dave townread=gone
dave currentread=null
dave status=needs_reevaluation

[AaronFrost]

high involvement with the Alo wagon, which is pretty meh in hindsight but i put him in my weak town yesterday for the tunneledness. today he mostly has just questioned bob if i recall correctly.

i also believe he's still an advocate for the SvS possibility alongside Aaron. so both dave and Aaron have expressed some amount of favour towards an Alo/Bob/chem scumteam. I dont like the SvS angle

MT it's weird to me that you townread dave yet scumread me even though the two of us have pushed the same angles (advocated for Alo yesterday, pushing SvS today). Why the difference in read there?

[AaronFrost]

Alright I'm all caught up. Can someone lay out the case against Gamma for me?

[Morning Tweet]

high involvement with the Alo wagon, which is pretty meh in hindsight but i put him in my weak town yesterday for the tunneledness. today he mostly has just questioned bob if i recall correctly.

i also believe he's still an advocate for the SvS possibility alongside Aaron. so both dave and Aaron have expressed some amount of favour towards an Alo/Bob/chem scumteam. I dont like the SvS angle

MT it's weird to me that you townread dave yet scumread me even though the two of us have pushed the same angles (advocated for Alo yesterday, pushing SvS today). Why the difference in read there?

I have you as more likely scum than dave because you more directly defended chem-- I suppose the argument could be made that ignoring chem completely is scummier.. hm

with your defense of chem taken into account, you voted Alo over her because you believed that Chem's lurk was NAI. It didn't really address the original intent of the wagon, which was tictac's flake, though.

Something I really need to know is more precisely why you and dave scumread Alo. i'll probably need to go over and read that again

additionally, i don't want to focus my sights on {Wake, dave, Hectic}. My gut says not to

Alright I'm all caught up. Can someone lay out the case against Gamma for me?

tldr: I believe that someone bussed chem. Gamma is somewhat unusually uninvested in this game. He voted chem before there was any pressure, and then voted chem AGAIN when there was enough pressure where the lynch seemed very likely.

In 965, i layed out why i think there's a busser. And in 939 and 942, i sorted out who i believe it is.

[Wake1]

Perhaps HoldenGolden is Scum. He seems intent on trying to twist my posts and my intention now.

I think I'm gonna park my vote there for now.

VOTE: GoldenHolden

[Morning Tweet]

I also have feelings to the gamma lynch so far that impacts this somewhat, but I have to check the way the votes have fallen so far to make sure i am reading the wagon dynamic correctly. TLDR on that: The lack of any real directed countermeasure to the gamma lynch concerns me as he is at 4 votes verses the second highest being 1 iirc. That, and that there are multiple 1 vote wagons as well. If gamma is scum, I feel there would be more pressure on one of these other wagons to provide gamma a way out of being lynched.

I think hesitation due to this reason is fair. But we lynched scum yesterday-- their numbers are down and their voices are quieter

so say it's Gamma + one partner. I can very well see that one partner opting not to start a counterwagon or otherwise not being able to, especially depending on who it is. And Gamma doesn't exactly seem invested enough to start one, either.

@Wake

, would you possibly elaborate on how Holden's evaluation of you is unfair?

[Adorable]

I was talking about the vote count on #526. I checked again and it turns out I read it wrong and made a mistake. Hectic was the 4th voter and profii was the one who broke the tie. Wake was originally the 4th voter and then he switched his vote to you and Hectic voted Chemist. My view still hasn't changed.

If what you had understood before was that Hectic broke the tie and voted Chemist and that made Hectic Town, when in actuality it was profii who did that, why is Hectic still Town and profii not Town?

I was talking about Hectic when I said my view on him still hasn't changed. I originally thought Hectic broke the tie when I looked at the vote count on #526 and I read it wrong. I have observed one of Hectic's scum games and he did not bus. I would find this really hard to believe scum Hectic would hard bus Chemist like that on day 1. Wouldn't it make more sense for scum profii to vote you instead of voting Chemist since he was the one who broke the tie? Thoughts on this?

[HoldenGolden]

I also have feelings to the gamma lynch so far that impacts this somewhat, but I have to check the way the votes have fallen so far to make sure i am reading the wagon dynamic correctly. TLDR on that: The lack of any real directed countermeasure to the gamma lynch concerns me as he is at 4 votes verses the second highest being 1 iirc. That, and that there are multiple 1 vote wagons as well. If gamma is scum, I feel there would be more pressure on one of these other wagons to provide gamma a way out of being lynched.

I think hesitation due to this reason is fair. But we lynched scum yesterday-- their numbers are down and their voices are quieter

so say it's Gamma + one partner. I can very well see that one partner opting not to start a counterwagon or otherwise not being able to, especially depending on who it is. And Gamma doesn't exactly seem invested enough to start one, either.

@Wake

, would you possibly elaborate on how Holden's evaluation of you is unfair?

I guess that's fair too.

I dont think gammas partner would out right voiced countermeasure directly if they are busing here. Yet, I would expect them to be sowing the seeds for lynches day 3 and 4 since they have to win by themselves. I tried analyzing everybody on the wagon currently to see if anything read as blatant (I'm lynching gamma but I realllllly want to lynch X) and didnt find anything. I might take another stab in the morning when my brain is working better.

I feel if we are later in the day phase it would be more of a stronger arguement.

[Wake1]

Currently I'm under the assumption that there are two Scum left, so it's up to me to separate the Scum from the mistaken... again.

The more any of you tell me not to speculation from my lucky watch action the more I am going to push poke and prod at it. Scum has every reason to fight me from uncovering the truth, and if you're Town you had better get out of my way. I wanted data, and I got it. We have viable, confirmed data and I will break apart anyone who tries to shut me down from working with it. I'm trying to use deductive reasoning to help the walls close in on Scum. I've got a loose thread and I'm intent on pulling at it.

I watched Hectic Night 1. Morning Tweet and davesaz targeted him with actions. Neither of them performed a kill Night 1.

Chemist was Scum, lynched Day 1.
Hectic: Could be either Town or Scum.
Morning Tweet & davesaz: Could be either Town or Scum.

- All 3 could be Town.
- All 3 cannot be Scum.
- 2 out of 3 cannot be Scum.
- Only one of those 3 could be Scum, because iirc Multitasking is not Normal.
- Only one of Hectic/dave/MT could be Scum because one Scum had to perform a Night Kill, and another (if possible) could have used a power role. It's unlikely (imho) for all three Scum to be PRs, so if there's a Vanilla Goon that one would have performed the NK.

- Either Hectic is Town and was targeted by 3 separate Town PRs...
- ...or Hectic is Town and 1 of those 3 PRs that targeted him are Scum.

- Another possibility is that Hectic is Scum: Hectic could have carried out the kill.
- It's unlikely, if Hectic were Town, that his Scum-mate would also target him.
- If Hectic is Scum, it's more likely he was targeted by 3 separate Town PRs. Scum protective roles are not that common in Singleball, correct? Usually they're more common in Multiball.

- If Hectic flips Town we must interrogate one of dave or MT. And if one of those two also die and flip Town, then the other must be destroyed, because then that remaining player is most likely Scum.

Bob I feel is rather inscrutable. I can't tell which alignment he is currently.

I object to voting lynching Gamma Day 2. I was the first to vote tictac. Gamma joined me after that. Gamma stayed on the tictac/Chemist wagon all the way to the end. Unless Gamma is Scum and was doing a hard-bus of his teammate, I don't think Gamma is Scum. WHY are people voting him?

Out of curiosity, I see tictac/chemist was voting for aloratom all of Day 1, with davesaz eventually joining, and then AaronFrost, and then much later I. I'm beginning to suspect that aloratom may be Town, and that davesaz (and potentially AaronFrost) is Scum.

I think, perhaps, davesaz would be a better option currently.

VOTE: davesaz

[profii]

So you'd lynch me with the intention to flip me as town, so that you can clear the town watcher that is probably the nightkill tonight? Am I understanding that correctly?

its risk reward. You have rightly identified the risk. The reward is that the remaining scum is you + wake and wed get a perfect town victory if we went there.

Also, your logic is very flawed. It's entirely possible scum!Wake picks town with his watcher ability. Why are you so sure he would pick his scum buddy "defensively"?

I'm really struggling to see how this line of logic comes from town.

It's not flawed at all. I explained why a scum watcher would look at the player executing the factional kill, to ensure the player doesnt get tripped up by town PRs

I did exactly this in 2 previous scum games of mine, alo can attest to it.

[HoldenGolden]

Perhaps HoldenGolden is Scum. He seems intent on trying to twist my posts and my intention now.

I think I'm gonna park my vote there for now.

VOTE: GoldenHolden

Sorry that's my twin brother you voted for.

Objectively my main point is factual. You have expressed that you strongly think one of MT/dave is scum. You havent posted any real analysis using their posts to sort them and rather keep reminding us about your watcher results. And, you have berated other players over them disagreeing or looking at other avenues as follows:

I'm of the mindset that one of those two targeting Hectic is Scum, while someone else (not among Tweet, Dave, and Hectic) is the Scum that killed Cakez.

Ok

Do you think one of them is scum based off of play or is this just pure speculation? Like do you have any specific reason to believe this?

Do not pretend to be dense with me, Aaron.

How likely do you think it is that 3 Town PRs all targeted Hectic at the same time? Assuming Hectic is Town.

I

know

you understand what I'm saying.

That's idiotic, especially if there's a high chance of Scum being in there.

You should know better, profii.

All of which minus the first I find out of place for a townie to be doing, watcher results or not.

You can argue only to a certain point of how I twisted your words so to speak. Your ISO post claim clearly favors my argument fully. Now answer my question I asked. What is your actual read on MT and Dave individually and actually using what they posted to back it up.

Pedit: See, was it that hard?

Also what is this moses like sentiment? Town is perfectly fine working with you, so long as you post content like this rather than what I quoted above. You arent going to get no where by actively insulting the other players, regardless of how right you are.

[HoldenGolden]

You have highlighted why I'm finding the logic pointless to pursue.

I think both the "He didnt interact due to not wanting to create assiocatiom" and "scum!chem most likely would of townspew scum!" Are both valid points to assume which cancel eachother other.

Also a fair point about chems partners. Who so far fits that bill for you in terms of strong townread player = scum (since alo doesnt qualify)

Hmm, maybe I am looking into it too much, I'm just having a hard time seeing town!Alo here.

As for people I strongly townread, Hectic and MT are my strongest townreads atm.

That's fair about Alo. Though not everyone paints themselves town (thinking back to Ico). If chemist had been more informative it would of made it much easier.

[HoldenGolden]

I also have feelings to the gamma lynch so far that impacts this somewhat, but I have to check the way the votes have fallen so far to make sure i am reading the wagon dynamic correctly. TLDR on that: The lack of any real directed countermeasure to the gamma lynch concerns me as he is at 4 votes verses the second highest being 1 iirc. That, and that there are multiple 1 vote wagons as well. If gamma is scum, I feel there would be more pressure on one of these other wagons to provide gamma a way out of being lynched.

I tend to agree with this point. It could be because it's early/mid-phase I suppose, but there's been little movement vote wise, and with no counter to Gamma, scum seem happy to let a Gamma lynch go through.

Then what is your current idea for scum then if not gamma?

I skimmed your ISO and didnt see anybody apperently filling that void.

[Wake1]

I play as I want to play as Town, NOT how people expect or want me to play as Town.

Do not even try to push me to play a certain way because I can guarantee you I'll do the exact opposite.

I NEVER spit out reads just because someone wants me to. I do what I want, when I want. If I want to go in-depth I will if I feel like it. If I'm content to just watch and post little, Ill do just that. I want the game to be fun for me: not feel like a chore.

The process of elimination using deductive reasoning based solely on my Night 1 action is to me worth more than just some base read on someone. I'm humble enough to admit my reads aren't always accurate, and I trust deductive reasoning based on gathered information far more.