Mini Normal 2132 [Game Over]

[Klick]

Votecount 2.05

Gamma Emerald (3): Morning Tweet, Hectic, Adorable
davesaz (3): Wake88, profii, Aloratom
Aloratom (1): AaronFrost
AaronFrost (0):
HoldenGolden (0):
profii (0):
Adorable (0):
Hectic (0):
bob3141 (0):
Wake88 (0):
Morning Tweet (0):

Not Voting: HoldenGolden, Gamma Emerald, davesaz, bob3141

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to lynch.

The day will end in (expired on 2020-05-01 23:00:00).

AaronFrost is V/LA until the 29th.
HoldenGolden is V/LA until May 1st.

[davesaz]

No, because I don't fancy getting killed for the crumb like I usually am.

[Hectic]

So, 2 PRs have already claimed lul. Maybe we out Morning at this point and see if the power level is reasonable for a watcher + doc + ???. Don't take that as an invitation to out yet, Morning.

I think we should play it like this:

Morning, if you have a

strong

role, and don't think it should exist with Dave/Wake,

and

a potential town neighbouriser out there, then you should "counterclaim" and I think it's beneficial to actually lynch the scummiest of you 3.

If your role is weak/moderate power level, then you should keep quiet, and I think we just ignore you 3 since scum can't really afford to leave all the PRs alive.

Actually, having just thought that all out, I think it's best we just leave you all alive regardless and see who scum kills, and then look at the survivors more closely.

[Hectic]

Yeah, sorry, let's just carry on. Gamma wagon is fine. I think Bobman is a good wagon. I need to have another look at Adorable.

[profii]

Cakez and Alo feel towny

Cakez is a qt pie for sure-- but why alo?

Mentioning qt's here for any particular reason?

So you're not the neighborizor... In retrospect after the neighborizor enabler flip, I thought the QT reference was a private topic obscure crumb ( I thought it was clever)

[davesaz]

VOTE: profii
You forgot to do something.

[davesaz]

I expect a whole bunch of immediate unvotes / vote changes.

[profii]

VOTE: profii
You forgot to do something.

Yeah I'm thinking

VOTE: aaron

[profii]

It's a weird one though. I don't believe your claim... I think you're a scum neighborizor

[davesaz]

Tweet was the one who crumbed.

[Morning Tweet]

Maybe Gamma is Scum. I don't know. I'm trying to make accurate judgments based on the evidence and player patterns I currently have.

So if Gamma is Scum then he was bussing Chemist. If I were Scum I would want avoid bussing at all costs unless it was necessary.

We do know tictac slot was on Aloratom from VC 1.02 all the way to lynch. Davesaz was on Aloratom from VC 1.04 to lynch.

How would you evaluate that? Scum was on Aloratom for much of Day 1.

I think your statement that "If I were scum, I'd avoid bussing" is not a valid reason to dismiss bussing. The wagon was very strong since there was essentially no defense from Hectic's case. I outline why i think someone bussed in 965

I think you make a fair point that both Dave and tictac-Chem were on Alo, although tictac's vote as just left over from RVS, so i'm not as concerned as i would be

I do not think that all remaining scum were on the Alo wagon. I think, at most, there is only 1 scum there. However, I feel it is extremely likely there is 1 (maybe 2, in an edge case) on tictac-Chem, and 1 off wagon somewhere. I am leaning Aaron/Bob for the off-wagon scum, and Gamma/profii on-wagon.

[Hectic]

So you'd lynch me with the intention to flip me as town, so that you can clear the town watcher that is probably the nightkill tonight? Am I understanding that correctly?

its risk reward. You have rightly identified the risk. The reward is that the remaining scum is you + wake and wed get a perfect town victory if we went there.

Also, your logic is very flawed. It's entirely possible scum!Wake picks town with his watcher ability. Why are you so sure he would pick his scum buddy "defensively"?

I'm really struggling to see how this line of logic comes from town.

It's not flawed at all. I explained why a scum watcher would look at the player executing the factional kill, to ensure the player doesnt get tripped up by town PRs

I did exactly this in 2 previous scum games of mine, alo can attest to it.

I want to go back to this for a bit, profii.

When you suggested we lynch me to clear/incriminate Wake, did you not consider the fact 2 other PRs had also targeted me, and the odds that one of them would be an investigative is moderate? Considering the fact no one's come forward with a guilty on me, that gives me extra town points. Why didn't you consider that in your line of reasoning?

I understand that scum!you isn't actually trying to get me lynched here, but I'm wary that scum!you would propose an out there idea like that to get townread.

[profii]

Well one is odds on to be a neighborizor so that's one
We also have a watcher claim so doesnt that reduce the odds of an investigative, giving credit to my theory?

[Aloratom]

I'm thinking I need to do this until I can look at this a little more critically.

UNVOTE: dave

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't understand anything you just asked

also I'm gonna be getting a new phone soon so my general activity may shoot up or down

So the result of the new phone is gonna be a downswing in activity

So probably just tell me what I should read if I bother to catch up because I’m not gonna have much free time with everything else I’ll be doing

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't understand anything you just asked

also I'm gonna be getting a new phone soon so my general activity may shoot up or down

How do neighborizors works

- we have an enabler so I assume one exists

- there are a few parameters I have no experience of, thoughts?

- not sure if the enabler flipping town is AI, thoughts?

First thing isn’t a question
Second I know the standard approach is generally one neighborhood that everyone who is added joins
Don’t think we can alignment spec off that flip, no

[Gamma Emerald]

It wouldn't 100% clear wake, but if you are scum watcher the optimal play is to check your pal - that way, a no result is actually a useful (and good result) because it means you know no one is going to turn up in the thread and say "hard claim guilty"

Given the way Wake has played this, he could have "defensively" checked Hectic, got 2 hits, they've then pooped their pants because youd have thought 1 would be incriminating so why not full claim and goad out the cop claim and trade 1 for 1

You mean “no action”
No Result is the message for an investigative being blocked
All mods should be aware and mindful of this, and if they are knowledgeable about this and don’t specify it anyway they’re a jackass

[Gamma Emerald]

Perhaps HoldenGolden is Scum. He seems intent on trying to twist my posts and my intention now.

I think I'm gonna park my vote there for now.

VOTE: GoldenHolden

Describe where you see this? I’m not against your read currently but I feel town is more likely to call out the unopposed wagon here.

[Gamma Emerald]

I also have feelings to the gamma lynch so far that impacts this somewhat, but I have to check the way the votes have fallen so far to make sure i am reading the wagon dynamic correctly. TLDR on that: The lack of any real directed countermeasure to the gamma lynch concerns me as he is at 4 votes verses the second highest being 1 iirc. That, and that there are multiple 1 vote wagons as well. If gamma is scum, I feel there would be more pressure on one of these other wagons to provide gamma a way out of being lynched.

I think hesitation due to this reason is fair. But we lynched scum yesterday-- their numbers are down and their voices are quieter

so say it's Gamma + one partner. I can very well see that one partner opting not to start a counterwagon or otherwise not being able to, especially depending on who it is. And Gamma doesn't exactly seem invested enough to start one, either.

@Wake

, would you possibly elaborate on how Holden's evaluation of you is unfair?

I guess that's fair too.

I dont think gammas partner would out right voiced countermeasure directly if they are busing here. Yet, I would expect them to be sowing the seeds for lynches day 3 and 4 since they have to win by themselves. I tried analyzing everybody on the wagon currently to see if anything read as blatant (I'm lynching gamma but I realllllly want to lynch X) and didnt find anything. I might take another stab in the morning when my brain is working better.

I feel if we are later in the day phase it would be more of a stronger arguement.

This is telling me Holden is doing real detective work here

Could still be scum but definitely leans town for now

Currently I'm under the assumption that there are two Scum left, so it's up to me to separate the Scum from the mistaken... again.

The more any of you tell me not to speculation from my lucky watch action the more I am going to push poke and prod at it. Scum has every reason to fight me from uncovering the truth, and if you're Town you had better get out of my way. I wanted data, and I got it. We have viable, confirmed data and I will break apart anyone who tries to shut me down from working with it. I'm trying to use deductive reasoning to help the walls close in on Scum. I've got a loose thread and I'm intent on pulling at it.

I watched Hectic Night 1. Morning Tweet and davesaz targeted him with actions. Neither of them performed a kill Night 1.

Chemist was Scum, lynched Day 1.
Hectic: Could be either Town or Scum.
Morning Tweet & davesaz: Could be either Town or Scum.

- All 3 could be Town.
- All 3 cannot be Scum.
- 2 out of 3 cannot be Scum.
- Only one of those 3 could be Scum, because iirc Multitasking is not Normal.
- Only one of Hectic/dave/MT could be Scum because one Scum had to perform a Night Kill, and another (if possible) could have used a power role. It's unlikely (imho) for all three Scum to be PRs, so if there's a Vanilla Goon that one would have performed the NK.

- Either Hectic is Town and was targeted by 3 separate Town PRs...
- ...or Hectic is Town and 1 of those 3 PRs that targeted him are Scum.

- Another possibility is that Hectic is Scum: Hectic could have carried out the kill.
- It's unlikely, if Hectic were Town, that his Scum-mate would also target him.
- If Hectic is Scum, it's more likely he was targeted by 3 separate Town PRs. Scum protective roles are not that common in Singleball, correct? Usually they're more common in Multiball.

- If Hectic flips Town we must interrogate one of dave or MT. And if one of those two also die and flip Town, then the other must be destroyed, because then that remaining player is most likely Scum.

Bob I feel is rather inscrutable. I can't tell which alignment he is currently.

I object to voting lynching Gamma Day 2. I was the first to vote tictac. Gamma joined me after that. Gamma stayed on the tictac/Chemist wagon all the way to the end. Unless Gamma is Scum and was doing a hard-bus of his teammate, I don't think Gamma is Scum. WHY are people voting him?

Out of curiosity, I see tictac/chemist was voting for aloratom all of Day 1, with davesaz eventually joining, and then AaronFrost, and then much later I. I'm beginning to suspect that aloratom may be Town, and that davesaz (and potentially AaronFrost) is Scum.

I think, perhaps, davesaz would be a better option currently.

VOTE: davesaz

I also tuned out around Page 12 so leshrug
Like Morning Tweet is right that I was in a bad place to unvote if I was Chemist’s buddy

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma, Aloratom, if neither of you want to be lynched Day 2 I would ask that you please join me in lynching davesaz if you aren't already.

Any logic besides the idea he (and AaronFFrost) we’re voting A-Tom as a counterwagon? I don’t find that idea particularly conclusive.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also not a fan of the tone there

[Gamma Emerald]

I understand what you're saying now. I disagree with the notion Gamma is likely town for it. I treat Gamma's second vote on tictac as his actual contribution to the wagon. He thought that his "L-1" vote on Chem was his true vote. It wasn't a reaction test, he legitimately thought that was his vote

Evidence to support this: He admits it himself. He never talks about tictac in his ISO, at all. as far as I can see. It's literally a jump from voting tictac in RVS, to talking about unrelated stuff, to voting Chem in an attempt to put her at L-1.

This reads like he hastily voted chem, as if he just felt like he needed to. So hasty and without any thought that he didn't even realize he was already voting her prior. Which kinda reveals he wasn't trying to evaluate tictac, at all, since he didn't even remember he was voting him

Additionally, i have townreads on some of the different members of the wagon, and i feel strongly there is a busser. It all comes together

I think Gamma is more likely to be Town than hard-bussing Scum. Doesn't mean he's Town for sure, but if it's a numbers game he's more likely Town for it.

Maybe he completely forgot he was voting that slot, but then that would be more of a player error, but I find it hard to believe Gamma would do that.

Then again, I had forgotten that Chemist had replaced tictac.

Maybe Gamma is Scum. I don't know. I'm trying to make accurate judgments based on the evidence and player patterns I currently have.

So if Gamma is Scum then he was bussing Chemist. If I were Scum I would want avoid bussing at all costs unless it was necessary.

We do know tictac slot was on Aloratom from VC 1.02 all the way to lynch. Davesaz was on Aloratom from VC 1.04 to lynch.

How would you evaluate that? Scum was on Aloratom for much of Day 1.

The main issue with your statement is the term “hard-bussing”. I wasn’t active for a lot of D1 so it’s hard to call my actions hard-anything. I don’t think you’re scum but you do seem to be arguing a case with a sizable hole in it

[profii]

It wouldn't 100% clear wake, but if you are scum watcher the optimal play is to check your pal - that way, a no result is actually a useful (and good result) because it means you know no one is going to turn up in the thread and say "hard claim guilty"

Given the way Wake has played this, he could have "defensively" checked Hectic, got 2 hits, they've then pooped their pants because youd have thought 1 would be incriminating so why not full claim and goad out the cop claim and trade 1 for 1

You mean “no action”
No Result is the message for an investigative being blocked
All mods should be aware and mindful of this, and if they are knowledgeable about this and don’t specify it anyway they’re a jackass

I just want to highlight something regarding that Wake post (1044 quoted above)

Multitasking can be used in normals, if explicitly stated as part of the role

For reference

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=82227

I wasn't a watcher, I had voyeur here, but you can see why I am thinking along the lines of hectic / wake from this game- I used the voyeur to make sure we didnt get guiltied

[Hectic]

Voyeur is a lot more useful since you can get the role used. Watcher just gets the name.

Don't you think scum!Wake could just as easily be trying to watch town to catch some other town PRs? Let's say we lynch me and I flip town, with how much confidence are you willing to say that Wake is a TOWN watcher? Like, percentage-wise.

[Hectic]

AaronFF popped in for lunch earlier. Over some smoked salmon bagels, we talked about how profii could just be completely BSing this theory in order to make content and get townread for "nuance". AaronFF didn't even finish his bagel, he gave me a nod and he was out of the front door in seconds. I think he's working on the theory now.