Newbie 1996: GAME OVER


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Post Post #1725 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:18 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

Hey, I got town lock on the LL slot, and HEM, and possible Kirari but I have questions first. With 3b being my top lynch today, and planes a close second.

Here come the reads:
Town
LL Slot: Almost guaranteed power role, locked.
HEM: Their tunneling (or focus) and frustration seem genuine. A town convinced of his own conclusions but constantly looking for new information.
Hoolden: Has some really good posts, and I want them in a town block, but they feel a little flip-floppy for me. Some of their reads seem to change very suddenly.
Planes Slot: Yooh's activity (or lack thereof) is extremely suspect, and the sudden replacement after their anti-town gambit is not good.
3B: Seem like a player constantly saying one thing and acting another. Their votes not lining up with their suspicions, and seem much more focused on just having someone that isn't them end up lynched. Not on finding scum.

Now for Kirari, I would put them as town for their play, but first I'd like to ask questions about the theory of game stalling.
Could someone explain why the game failing to lynch Kirari means they're likely town? Would the stall not be more likely with them being Scum and their buddy not bussing them? And while some of their behavior is town, their accusations of every player that isn't them read as muddying the waters. But that only happened after the game stalled.

Pedit: Precisely.

Spoiler:
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Post Post #1726 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:18 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

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Post Post #1727 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:20 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

Yeah, I fatfingered that one, didn't I? But you knew exactly which one I was thinking of anyways, ha.
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Post Post #1728 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:18 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

I swear I'm gonna start playing again when we get the full roster.
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Post Post #1729 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:42 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

That would be, what, two more players? We could save Elmo some trouble. We all vote to lynch Kirari if 3bounty agrees to night-kill LuckyLuciano's slot.

Then we can play with only the active players, right? :D
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Post Post #1730 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:12 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

Yes, there's my answer on who 3bounty's partner is.
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Post Post #1731 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:15 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

I do hope you're joking as much as I was in #1729.
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Post Post #1732 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:18 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

LuckyLuciano's slot is probably toast in any universe, though, having claimed.
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Post Post #1733 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:23 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

If you guys are here can you answers my questions about Kirari. I think it's just theory that's going over my newbie head.
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Post Post #1734 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:27 pm

Post by 3bounty »

Sidenote - Scums grip on this game is insane.
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Post Post #1735 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:32 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

In post 1725, Tuxedo Mask wrote:Now for Kirari, I would put them as town for their play, but first I'd like to ask questions about the theory of game stalling.
Could someone explain why the game failing to lynch Kirari means they're likely town? Would the stall not be more likely with them being Scum and their buddy not bussing them? And while some of their behavior is town, their accusations of every player that isn't them read as muddying the waters. But that only happened after the game stalled.
I honestly think the stalling was because both wagons were on scum and they were forced to crossbus by circumstances and
that's
why the game stalled. I mean, I don't see the ape being scum in this game, so in your theory, it's either your own slot or Holden Golden who would be bussing. I don't imagine you would bring up a theory that implicates yourself if you're scum, so I'm assuming you're thinking Holden would be Kirari's partner under the not-bussing theory?

Whereas you seem to be scumreading my slot and 3bounty, both of who would be bussing if Kirari was scum. And it makes more sense if 3bounty is scum and they're parked on each others' wagons, perfectly balanced and going nowhere, with Clidd unable to decide who to hammer.
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Post Post #1736 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:37 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

The theory for why Kirari's wagon stalling out means they're town here flies over my head, too, basically. My opinion is that both wagons were on scum, with maybe an outside chance of HoldenGolden being the scum.

I mean, let's take the universe where your slot, Tuxedo, is the scum: why would Clidd basically lock up and not vote for either? Were both on town and he didn't want the blame? Was he tormented by the choice of bussing or mislynching town? I don't think so. I think he was just town being thrown off by the deteriorating tone of the game and two stuck wagons.
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Post Post #1737 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:47 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

In post 1733, Tuxedo Mask wrote:If you guys are here can you answers my questions about Kirari. I think it's just theory that's going over my newbie head.
.
In town!Kirari universe, she is both the popular town mislynch, scum mislynch, and TPR target after her performance in D1. Scum already knows that there is a tracker, so they would have understood that she might have been cleared by the tracker. So they already know this lynch might not happen if they're right that she's been cleared by the tracker. Not wanting to lynch her immediately also gives them free towncred. The best play is to wait for someone who doesn't want to lynch her as much, and they would have found the tracker. If everyone wants to be on board about lynching her, they know she wasn't targeted. That's when they'll join the wagon. Partner this with her townie reactions, it paints a probable town!Kirari universe.

D2 starts, sure enough, everyone wants to lynch her immediately — all except 3bounty, HG. This is why HG/clidd and 3bounty partnership in a town!Kirari universe makes so much sense. But where HG/clidd isn't scum, it's Yooh + 3bounty. Although I'm willing to locktown clidd's slot, because of the way he replaced out.

However, as the day pans out, I'm beginning to doubt how strong the theory really is.
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Post Post #1738 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:51 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

You should understand. There was a
strong off feel
during those periods—sort of like we were walking into a trap and everything was design—and I don't know how to communicate that to replacements.
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Post Post #1739 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:52 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

Maybe note the timings between each posts?
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Post Post #1740 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:16 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

Thanks for the explanations, from both of you. That was the area my head was most stuck on.

In post 1739, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Maybe note the timings between each posts?
That's a good point, I'll keep that in mind when I'm reading back.
In post 1724, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Like if you can roleblock and kill at the same night if your partner is dead? :P
Was this a throw-away joke, or were you seeing if we actually paid attention enough to see that this came up? It probably doesn't matter but I felt stupid for not picking up on it the first time.

Either way, I think the consensus is between 3Bounty, Holden, and Rectiplanes (Planes may be swapped with Kirari Slot depending on how their replacement is, but either way I'm fine waiting on both of them till Day 3) we find scum, which honestly feels like a pretty good spot to be in.

Sidenote:
In post 1734, 3bounty wrote:Sidenote - Scums grip on this game is insane.
Hi, I'm new here, and dumb. Convince me you're not scum, and who I should vote for.
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Post Post #1741 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:24 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

MOD: Are we getting additional time after all slots are filled?
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Post Post #1742 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:24 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

Well.... obviously there is no reason to believe me, but I certainly know it's not Yooh/Planes + 3bounty. And, no matter what, it seems like 3bounty is one of the scum: whether you assume both wagons were on scum, or if Kirari's town regardless of who the partnerships were - HG, Clidd, or (from your perspective) me. I don't see why we aren't all just agreeing to lynch him later and spend the time productively talking about his partner?

For what it's worth, you might be locktowning Clidd based on the replacement, but I like the slot because when he subbed in, he had a fair amount townfeel and then he posted and then and these matched up more or less perfectly with what I was independently thinking at the time, going through the game. I don't think scum-Clidd does that, so I don't really buy into scum-Clidd theories.

In my view it's either 3bounty and Kirari or 3bounty and Holden.

P-edit: From outside I can see where someone would think it's me, it's not. About the only thing I can say is that, out of all the players raging and behaving badly in this game, Yooh's losing his temper (#, #, #, #) feels transparently like frustrated town going on tilt.
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Post Post #1743 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:29 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

Rectiplanes, do you propose that we leave 3bounty to be lynched later in D3 and D4 — and lynch not 3bounty today?
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Post Post #1744 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:33 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

My preference would be to take out the most obvious scum first, so I'm all for the 3bounty lynch.
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Post Post #1745 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:34 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

Oh, I see what you meant. No, I just meant, we'll agree to lynch 3bounty towards the end of the day and not do it, you know, immediately. We can spend the time before lynching him thinking over who the other scum is.
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Post Post #1746 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:35 pm

Post by Rectiplanes »

Although, to the guys who have been in the game, maybe actually ending this day would be a relief? If that's true we can speed things up and give you a breather if that's what you and Holden need.
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Post Post #1747 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:39 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

Yeah, as much as using our extra time effectively may help it'll probably just stall the game further. Discussing who his partner is before a flip and night kill will only make things worse. I mean how much can we really go over the same pages to draw new conclusions? It also gives scum a game plan to manipulate us. Then we might end exactly where we did with Kirari.
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Post Post #1748 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:40 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

well, we've been waiting to read Yooh's slot properly for a while now, so we probably can use your deep dive on what's your gamesolve order for this game.
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Post Post #1749 (ISO) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:42 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

i really don't want to end the day. i want to read Yooh's and Kirari's slot better, and know if LL's replacement would agree to my gamesolve or not.
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