Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[HoldenGolden]

(This is going to be a mess flow wise as after taking a latin final and finalizing my remaining final essay, my brain is not working grammar wise)

FYI it is final week(s) for me so activity will wax and wane potentially.

While I do find Kirari scummy, the whole fakeclaim situation doesn't fit for me and I feel the most reasonable reason why Inwho was killed was because he was virtually town-read by everybody day 1 at some point with no strong scum reads forming against them. Scum would have had a hard time forcing a mislynch onto them without over-extending themselves to the point of being easy to read by the rest of town. While I understand the points raised by Cli2d, I find the outlandish and varied claiming by Kirari to not really be efficiently the same as a fakeclaim. The n0 cop and mass mason posts both feel sorta obvious that it was a jest while, upon reading Inwho's response, doesn't seem enough was leaked by the claim for scum!kirari to read inwho as a pr solely on that.

I will admit I had secretly pinged Inwho as a PR based on the overall tone they projected constantly, so I think it is possible for scum to pick up on the pr tells, thought with the townreads as well there is too much speculation to go off of to directly link Kirari to the kill.
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Meanwhile I am quite honestly confused given how this day is going. I like the Kirari lynch, but the entire thread seems hell bent on lynching her. This is alarming because if she is scum:

1) her partner is death-bussing her:

Spoiler:

I do not see the need to bus her this early into the day phase. Scum has a massive tempo advantage as they might now have no PR roles to worry about. Kirari was in a bad spot towards the end of day 1, but not nearly bad enough to warrent such a drastic measure as this. While obviously the partner cannot white-knight scum!Kirari as that would throw away their lead if Kirari does flip here (as it be easier to associate the two together), no one really is cautiously supporting the wagon while providing reads on others to deflect the wagon off scum!kirari. 3b is really the only one offering any sort of counter aggression to the lynch, but shuts down Kirari's out on floof here:

Yoooh is probably town. I think highest hit % is on the Alo wagon. The build up was too fast to be all town on there.

It could be to provide distance, but I think scum!3b along with scum!kirari wouldn't shut down the wagon and force themselves into a position where they are left only voting Alo's wagon. That would mean they are going all in on pushing me this day phase which seems like a suicide mission as what the hell will they do post day 2 if they achieve it? Kirari most likely will get lynched and 3b wouldn't be that far behind.

The fact the game state is so comfortable in this situation when the entire scum team should be trying to pivot this if kirari is scum is alarming and points to kirari actually being town.

Even if you disagree and think Kirari is being death bussed:

2) scum!kirari being lynched is god-awful for scum:

Spoiler:

By having her flip red, the game becomes a lot easier to read. I would move up on peoples town list due to Kirari's read progression on me painting me as town. Her interactions with Monkey today cements him as town too and the casting of shade onto cli2d throughout the game most likely gets him ranked higher too. That makes 3 strong town reads that most people agree with leaving [LL, 3b, Floof] as the last possible scum pool. I think depending on how you read the Floof interaction right now, you could cross Floof off that list making the game nearly impossible for scum to win (unless for some reason Monkey/Cli2d as scum hard pushed their teammate today). Scum would be dying to try and move the lynch as a resort, and quite frankly that is not what has been happening as Kirari is the only one understandably fighting the lynch. Thus, this supports the idea that kirari is town here.

3) Town!Kirari is great for scum to mislynch

Spoiler:

Obviously any mislynch is good for scum, but a kirari mislynch sets up scum in a very strong state to win the whole game. I can see a plan where they mislynch kirari today and then push me off of the suspicions raised during today by both kirari and others, carrying them into mylo/lylo (last lynch). From there, depending on how day 3 plays out and if they lynch me, they might have enough ammo to easily win the game depending on who exactly scum is. This is speculative of course, but since I know my alignment, I do see this gameplan easier. I think too they can spin kirari's posts so far earlier today to even throw shade at HEM and in general remove stronger town reads from everyone's list.

Outside of that, town!Kirari is quite hard to predict so far, and given the high activity, could prove to be a threat to scum. Since the suspicious were decent EoD day 1, I can see why they would push her even if they haven't thought that ahead.

In conclusion,

despite the fact individually I find Kirari's posts scummy, the thread sentiment here makes more sense only if Kirari is town. I doubt scum is willing to risk such a high risk low reward gambit by death-bussing here when they are this ahead in the game, and it makes a lot of sense for town!kirari to be scum's preferred lynch here. Going off this, I think those who are either pushing the wagon without directly taking the reigns of it most likely is the scum driving this. I need to go back throughout today to figure out how everyone's push/read progression has changed before I can feel certain where the scum is.

For context this is before Luckys Tracker claim when the entire thread was scum reading and pushing for a kirari wagon. I still think it is worth considering these points because of a few clear ups I had with the logic here:

1) 3b was scum reading kirari unlike I had thought and thus the point of scum hard bussing is strengthen as nobody up until my post had fought the kirari wagon. This is coupled with 2) upon rereading day 1 EoD kirari wasnt in an unsalvageable position. Making it more confusing for scum to leave their partner to die.

Since that post:

Kirari had displayed some desire to solve the game despite continuing to be scum read by most: while kriari is a SE and I would expect them not to give up, their posts felt like they were genuinely attempting to analysis the game from all prospective angles. Some of the logic was faulty, but the motivation is still there. You or somebody else brought up how kirari seemed to be muddying the waters given how they read into everybody, but given their situation of being today's lynch, I think it makes sense for town!kirari.



As to why it stalled later around the time the two (kirari/3b) I think that's partly more due to players fatigue at the Lucky/Kirari interactions rather than the two wagons being scum. Iirc, 3bs wagon grew quickly as well up to L1 but being on mobile I cannot check easily.

Additionally, and this is less logically based but has some merit, it's worth noting im my mind how people didnt take me up on declaring kirari as town or scum instead of the hedging most people were doing that time. I think scum benefits more from not trying to enforce my expressed desire for a formal declaration from everybody as it cuts out a mislynch potentially if kirari is town. Since that is what happened, I'm leaning to this showing kirari is more likely town.

I also dont think 3b/kirari makes given a point I raised in my post above that 3b prevented himself from being on the yooh wagon eariler when kirari was pushing it which I dont see scum buddies do especially that early into the phase.

[HoldenGolden]

If you guys are here can you answers my questions about Kirari. I think it's just theory that's going over my newbie head.
.

In town!Kirari universe, she is both the popular town mislynch, scum mislynch, and TPR target after her performance in D1. Scum already knows that there is a tracker, so they would have understood that she might have been cleared by the tracker. So they already know this lynch might not happen if they're right that she's been cleared by the tracker. Not wanting to lynch her immediately also gives them free towncred. The best play is to wait for someone who doesn't want to lynch her as much, and they would have found the tracker. If everyone wants to be on board about lynching her, they know she wasn't targeted. That's when they'll join the wagon. Partner this with her townie reactions, it paints a probable town!Kirari universe.

D2 starts, sure enough, everyone wants to lynch her immediately — all except 3bounty, HG. This is why HG/clidd and 3bounty partnership in a town!Kirari universe makes so much sense. But where HG/clidd isn't scum, it's Yooh + 3bounty. Although I'm willing to locktown clidd's slot, because of the way he replaced out.

However, as the day pans out, I'm beginning to doubt how strong the theory really is.

Just to restate it, 3b did not opposed the kirari lynch eariler in day 2.

[HoldenGolden]

Well.... obviously there is no reason to believe me, but I certainly know it's not Yooh/Planes + 3bounty. And, no matter what, it seems like 3bounty is one of the scum: whether you assume both wagons were on scum, or if Kirari's town regardless of who the partnerships were - HG, Clidd, or (from your perspective) me. I don't see why we aren't all just agreeing to lynch him later and spend the time productively talking about his partner?

For what it's worth, you might be locktowning Clidd based on the replacement, but I like the slot because when he subbed in, he had a fair amount townfeel and then he posted 879 and then 1142 and these matched up more or less perfectly with what I was independently thinking at the time, going through the game. I don't think scum-Clidd does that, so I don't really buy into scum-Clidd theories.

In my view it's either 3bounty and Kirari or 3bounty and Holden.

P-edit: From outside I can see where someone would think it's me, it's not. About the only thing I can say is that, out of all the players raging and behaving badly in this game, Yooh's losing his temper (#999, #1014, #1064, #1071) feels transparently like frustrated town going on tilt.

Is the 3b and me pairing based on individual reads or an associated take?

If the latter, can you explain what lead you to that pairing? I can understand your logic leading you to declaring kirari and 3b is a team (even if I disagree with it).

Given your feelings about those posts made by yooh and his anti town gambit, what do you make of tuxedo's read of his replacement and tone in those posts shortly afterwards.

[HoldenGolden]

Although, to the guys who have been in the game, maybe actually ending this day would be a relief? If that's true we can speed things up and give you a breather if that's what you and Holden need.

No breathing needed. Oxygen is bad.

From my pov you are most likely the last scum largely due to PoE since I'm agreeing with the points raised about cli2d replacement out. Saying that, I want to at least interact with you somewhat before ending the day. I dont think we need to belabor lynching 3b by dragging it out since I rather just flip him instead of spending days doing preflip analysis, but I think it be for the benefit of both the old players and replacements that some time is allotted for discussion.

[Peter Pan]

3B smells like stale ale and scurvy

[HoldenGolden]

I do feel better about the tonal points I felt were off in planes response to me being eariler being reflected throughout his posting (the italticized phases)

[HoldenGolden]

3B smells like stale ale and scurvy

Would you grace us with your overall youthful perspective on the game, or do I need to spit out words of encouragement like how I spit out your peanut butter brand.

[Rectiplanes]

Is the 3b and me pairing based on individual reads or an associated take?

If the latter, can you explain what lead you to that pairing? I can understand your logic leading you to declaring kirari and 3b is a team (even if I disagree with it).

Given your feelings about those posts made by yooh and his anti town gambit, what do you make of tuxedo's read of his replacement and tone in those posts shortly afterwards.

There are seven players still alive.
3bounty is scum, we are all agreed, I believe.
Kirari's slot is, I think, likely to be the other scum, but I'm only mostly convinced of that. But if not this spot, then...
Yooh might have made a hash of things, but I read my role PM and can be fairly confident of my own town status; I am not his partner.
LuckyLuciano/PeterPan (ELMO! Did you assign the PeterPan to that slot to keep the doubled letters?) is our tracker; he's not 3bounty's partner.
Clidd/TuxedoMask reads townie as hell and I don't buy for a minute that he might be scum.
HumanEatingMonkey is transparently town.

I don't exactly have any choice but to consider you possible scum by PoE. It's either Kirari or you.

[Peter Pan]

3B smells like stale ale and scurvy

Would you grace us with your overall youthful perspective on the game, or do I need to spit out words of encouragement like how I spit out your peanut butter brand.

Patience, Tootles! I'll be all caught up soon as I'm all caught up.

[HoldenGolden]

I understand the PoE regard. I'm honestly in the same boat and trying to force myself away from those conclusions (while also trying to get stances out of everyone prior to lylo if we get to that point)

Kirari's replacement is really what will change my mind from my town!kirari theory unless anybody wants to actively disprove my stance.

3B smells like stale ale and scurvy

Would you grace us with your overall youthful perspective on the game, or do I need to spit out words of encouragement like how I spit out your peanut butter brand.

Patience, Tootles! I'll be all caught up soon as I'm all caught up.

Look alive, you swabs! We’ve got him this time, Mr. Monkey

[Peter Pan]

IFF 3B is a gold-grubbing swashbuckler, THEN one of these two is, too!

Spoiler:

What's the vote count? Did Alo really put 3bounty at L-1?

VC pls

OH you know what, you're really scummy

Wait 3b is at L1?
UNVOTE:
I'm not feeling great about the slot but I dont want the day to end yet given some questions I still have.

3bounty

From what you say, I can see from your style that you're thinking out loud. What you don't do is follow through — only taking the safest vote on Peach, the inactive player. You said you're struggling to find decent scumreads, but you've really thrown at least 3 scumreads throughout the game: Me, LL, and InWho22.

You went from Alo being town (#225, #263) to scum (#345), for the same thing — ignoring people's question. Either I'm not understanding your process, or you don't have one. I'm betting you don't have one. If you do, I want to be enlightened.

What's good, 3bounty?

Holden, let's double-team this guy

(expired on 2020-04-13 02:44:17) until peaches prod

this is my poe, it's this or pushing holden I guess

Why do I have to keep asking you old man for your read?

You keep throwing the notion that I'm scum yet refuse to out right push me, nor actually put forward a read. You keep putting me with werid associative reads where people are soft bussing my lynch? Floof had an alright reason to suspect me. You have basically been softing a push this entire game on me without actually explaining it.

You gain nothing by sitting there and throwing "holden is scum" as town.

Holden, let's double-team this guy

I'll question who I want monkey. The blood is still bad between us

and the other is a monkey

[Rectiplanes]

Given that I live in a swamp and went to the University of Florida, I feel I fit the role of a

crocodile

alligator quite well in this unexpected and impromptu Peter Pan joke. Let's pretend my watch is really, really loud to further sell the similarities.

[Peter Pan]

who was planes d1

[Rectiplanes]

Yooh held my spot.

[Peter Pan]

Okay this game is kind of a hot mess and I'm pretty sure my planned persona would not be well appreciated, so just going to drop it.

I'm about 1100 posts in and it feels like 22000, but I persist

I've been working on a 3B + {Holden, clidd, yooh} theory. I don't think anyone else really makes sense with him.

These posts seem like a decent counter narrative and might be changing my understanding of the gamestate, but I don't know that yooh/monkey is realistic because of how they both started d2 agro on kirari. also the VT claim seemed townie

Spoiler:

i just think the narrative that it's 3b and kirari is still highly probable. scum is capable of high-level plays. kirari is capable of high-level wifom-inducing shit.

Why "highly probable"? Why is us being s/s more likely than me being right that we're t/t or that I'm wrong and we're t/s?

I don't understand what high level wifom shit you think I would be making that would still make us highly probable s/s

I still think 3b getting to the point of wanting to lynch something yesterday in a stalled gamestate was townie. It's not impossible I'm wrong but I'd still say he's on the townier side all told

I wouldn't hard rule out yooh/monkey tbh, although I don't know that'd be my top pick

I'm not sure that Holden can be scum with anyone but 3B

The real counter narrative might be Clidd + Monkey?

Kirari feels town to me but also who in this list is bussing kirari here? does holden really come out with weaksauce wishy washy defense of kirari when the whole game is against them? I dunno about either of those scenarios

[humaneatingmonkey]

So you're working on a theory that 3b isn't scum?

[Peter Pan]

I am the tracker.

well if kirari was rolefishing it WORKED SUPER WELL LOL

=/

ope

[Peter Pan]

So you're working on a theory that 3b isn't scum?

I'm living in both worlds yeah. I do that to try and avoid tunneling and at least 1 in 10 times it works

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay, I want to hear more of your "3bounty isn't scum" theories and your final verdict on what world we all live in.

[Peter Pan]

kirari picked it up.. it's the "let's just make a lynch" comment d1

if 3B is scum, he's not powerwolfing D1. He's more shrink into the shadows, less push the outcome style

and let's just lynch is a comment that any wolf is going to look at in preview and think, "hey, this might draw attention to me"

so it's not harmonious with how and why i'm reading 3b scum


that's the theory that supports town!3b. I think I like scum!3b more, but final judgements when im not still 500 posts behind. (I hope they're good! They probably aren't tho, huh?)

[Peter Pan]

Just to make sure,

Can roleblocker carry KP and rb in the same night in this set up?

I havent played with this new set up and cannot remember if rb can multitask

@Everyone, does anybody see flaws in my belief that Kirari is scum, or believe that town ever wins if he's town? If the answer to either question is yes, let's discuss it. If not, let's preflip Kirari red and find his partner.

Wait, how is this work? Mafia Goon killed InWho, Mafia Roleblocker block someone. Am I missing something here? That post confirms Kirari as town. The only way this post doesn't confirm Kirari as town if mafia allowed to do 2 actions in same time. Is this allowed?

Mafias also have day-talk? What the fuck?

ughh

[Peter Pan]

@MOD can roleblocker multi-task even if his buddy is alive?

more ugh

[Peter Pan]

is kirari also mastina because if not i think they are high percentage town in any world

[Rectiplanes]

I don't know how much weight you can place on those questions... they're the sort of thing that scum would presumably ask about in scum-chat or PM or something, not out in plain view of man and radar, so their presence is just a massive amount of NAI WIFOM, I think.

Though having two of our SE's ask is decidedly odd-feeling. Y'all should know this without asking.

P-edit: I have no idea who Mastina is.

[humaneatingmonkey]

My last newbie game wasn't this setup. What I can teach you as SE is you should always ask the mod to avoid being wrong.