Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler:

You soul shall be mine then.

Ironic now we have come back to the argument of who is my partner isn't it? Well then lets hear it. All the replacements have spoken, and despite kirari not being replaced yet, their ISO is extensive. You will given time to search.

[Rectiplanes]

I've been stewing in paranoia over a possible column C game but have decided against it. Lucky was a tracker.

Beginning to come around on the idea of town-Kirara, but I'm not yet sold. Fortunately I have a lot of time to think it over and reread.

Of course, as Kirara's scum-star wanted, Holden's scum-star waxes. If it isn't here slot, it's you, little horse-deputy thing.

[Rectiplanes]

I am on my phone, autocorrect is showing its usual love, sorry.

Say hi, autocorrect.

"Go"

[HoldenGolden]

I've been stewing in paranoia over a possible column C game but have decided against it. Lucky was a tracker.

Beginning to come around on the idea of town-Kirara, but I'm not yet sold. Fortunately I have a lot of time to think it over and reread.

Of course, as Kirara's scum-star wanted, Holden's scum-star waxes. If it isn't here slot, it's you, little horse-deputy thing.

Play your hand when you are ready on Kirari. What about my theory on town kirari or others are you not sold on?

[HoldenGolden]

Wow today I learned That if you highlight a part of a post and click quote it auto formats it with only the portion in it.

[Rectiplanes]

I'm going to read it over and think about it on my own for now.

[Tuxedo Mask]

If you guys are here can you answers my questions about Kirari. I think it's just theory that's going over my newbie head.
.

In town!Kirari universe, she is both the popular town mislynch, scum mislynch, and TPR target after her performance in D1. Scum already knows that there is a tracker, so they would have understood that she might have been cleared by the tracker. So they already know this lynch might not happen if they're right that she's been cleared by the tracker. Not wanting to lynch her immediately also gives them free towncred. The best play is to wait for someone who doesn't want to lynch her as much, and they would have found the tracker. If everyone wants to be on board about lynching her, they know she wasn't targeted. That's when they'll join the wagon. Partner this with her townie reactions, it paints a probable town!Kirari universe.

D2 starts, sure enough, everyone wants to lynch her immediately — all except 3bounty, HG. This is why HG/clidd and 3bounty partnership in a town!Kirari universe makes so much sense. But where HG/clidd isn't scum, it's Yooh + 3bounty. Although I'm willing to locktown clidd's slot, because of the way he replaced out.

However, as the day pans out, I'm beginning to doubt how strong the theory really is.

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I know you're losing faith in this theory, but if this is right.

Would this not be the smoking gun?

FYI it is final week(s) for me so activity will wax and wane potentially.

While I do find Kirari scummy, the whole fakeclaim situation doesn't fit for me and I feel the most reasonable reason why Inwho was killed was because he was virtually town-read by everybody day 1 at some point with no strong scum reads forming against them. Scum would have had a hard time forcing a mislynch onto them without over-extending themselves to the point of being easy to read by the rest of town. While I understand the points raised by Cli2d, I find the outlandish and varied claiming by Kirari to not really be efficiently the same as a fakeclaim. The n0 cop and mass mason posts both feel sorta obvious that it was a jest while, upon reading Inwho's response, doesn't seem enough was leaked by the claim for scum!kirari to read inwho as a pr solely on that.

I will admit I had secretly pinged Inwho as a PR based on the overall tone they projected constantly, so I think it is possible for scum to pick up on the pr tells, thought with the townreads as well there is too much speculation to go off of to directly link Kirari to the kill.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile I am quite honestly confused given how this day is going. I like the Kirari lynch, but the entire thread seems hell bent on lynching her. This is alarming because if she is scum:

1) her partner is death-bussing her:

Spoiler:

I do not see the need to bus her this early into the day phase. Scum has a massive tempo advantage as they might now have no PR roles to worry about. Kirari was in a bad spot towards the end of day 1, but not nearly bad enough to warrent such a drastic measure as this. While obviously the partner cannot white-knight scum!Kirari as that would throw away their lead if Kirari does flip here (as it be easier to associate the two together), no one really is cautiously supporting the wagon while providing reads on others to deflect the wagon off scum!kirari. 3b is really the only one offering any sort of counter aggression to the lynch, but shuts down Kirari's out on floof here:

Yoooh is probably town. I think highest hit % is on the Alo wagon. The build up was too fast to be all town on there.

It could be to provide distance, but I think scum!3b along with scum!kirari wouldn't shut down the wagon and force themselves into a position where they are left only voting Alo's wagon. That would mean they are going all in on pushing me this day phase which seems like a suicide mission as what the hell will they do post day 2 if they achieve it? Kirari most likely will get lynched and 3b wouldn't be that far behind.

The fact the game state is so comfortable in this situation when the entire scum team should be trying to pivot this if kirari is scum is alarming and points to kirari actually being town.

Even if you disagree and think Kirari is being death bussed:

2) scum!kirari being lynched is god-awful for scum:

Spoiler:

By having her flip red, the game becomes a lot easier to read. I would move up on peoples town list due to Kirari's read progression on me painting me as town. Her interactions with Monkey today cements him as town too and the casting of shade onto cli2d throughout the game most likely gets him ranked higher too. That makes 3 strong town reads that most people agree with leaving [LL, 3b, Floof] as the last possible scum pool. I think depending on how you read the Floof interaction right now, you could cross Floof off that list making the game nearly impossible for scum to win (unless for some reason Monkey/Cli2d as scum hard pushed their teammate today). Scum would be dying to try and move the lynch as a resort, and quite frankly that is not what has been happening as Kirari is the only one understandably fighting the lynch. Thus, this supports the idea that kirari is town here.

3) Town!Kirari is great for scum to mislynch

Spoiler:

Obviously any mislynch is good for scum, but a kirari mislynch sets up scum in a very strong state to win the whole game. I can see a plan where they mislynch kirari today and then push me off of the suspicions raised during today by both kirari and others, carrying them into mylo/lylo (last lynch). From there, depending on how day 3 plays out and if they lynch me, they might have enough ammo to easily win the game depending on who exactly scum is. This is speculative of course, but since I know my alignment, I do see this gameplan easier. I think too they can spin kirari's posts so far earlier today to even throw shade at HEM and in general remove stronger town reads from everyone's list.

Outside of that, town!Kirari is quite hard to predict so far, and given the high activity, could prove to be a threat to scum. Since the suspicious were decent EoD day 1, I can see why they would push her even if they haven't thought that ahead.

In conclusion,

despite the fact individually I find Kirari's posts scummy, the thread sentiment here makes more sense only if Kirari is town. I doubt scum is willing to risk such a high risk low reward gambit by death-bussing here when they are this ahead in the game, and it makes a lot of sense for town!kirari to be scum's preferred lynch here. Going off this, I think those who are either pushing the wagon without directly taking the reigns of it most likely is the scum driving this. I need to go back throughout today to figure out how everyone's push/read progression has changed before I can feel certain where the scum is.

It's his first post on day 2, and seems to be doing what you're theoretical scum would do.

[HoldenGolden]

I'm going to read it over and think about it on my own for now.

Understandable

Tuxedo, your LL and Kirari reads please? Have my theories on them make you lean that they are town? If not, what is your counter argument?

[HoldenGolden]

There is a reason why I am focusing on this, but I need others to comment on it before I reveal it.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Can we please wait for Kirari's replacement?

[Tuxedo Mask]

I'm going to read it over and think about it on my own for now.

Understandable

Tuxedo, your LL and Kirari reads please? Have my theories on them make you lean that they are town? If not, what is your counter argument?

Sorry, can you repost them? As for the slots, I like Kirari, the thing that pings me about them is certain interactions between other slots, near the end of day 1. LL makes me nervous, one thing that really doesn't sit well with me. Is in the middle of their day one spam, they mask off and reveal they were lying about town reading Who. It just strikes me as an odd moment, almost feels like distancing from a NK.

Pedit: Wait to talk?

[HoldenGolden]

Can we please wait for Kirari's replacement?

If it is that critical to your reads on LL and Kirari, then yes my friend.

[HoldenGolden]

(This is going to be a mess flow wise as after taking a latin final and finalizing my remaining final essay, my brain is not working grammar wise)

FYI it is final week(s) for me so activity will wax and wane potentially.

While I do find Kirari scummy, the whole fakeclaim situation doesn't fit for me and I feel the most reasonable reason why Inwho was killed was because he was virtually town-read by everybody day 1 at some point with no strong scum reads forming against them. Scum would have had a hard time forcing a mislynch onto them without over-extending themselves to the point of being easy to read by the rest of town. While I understand the points raised by Cli2d, I find the outlandish and varied claiming by Kirari to not really be efficiently the same as a fakeclaim. The n0 cop and mass mason posts both feel sorta obvious that it was a jest while, upon reading Inwho's response, doesn't seem enough was leaked by the claim for scum!kirari to read inwho as a pr solely on that.

I will admit I had secretly pinged Inwho as a PR based on the overall tone they projected constantly, so I think it is possible for scum to pick up on the pr tells, thought with the townreads as well there is too much speculation to go off of to directly link Kirari to the kill.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile I am quite honestly confused given how this day is going. I like the Kirari lynch, but the entire thread seems hell bent on lynching her. This is alarming because if she is scum:

1) her partner is death-bussing her:

Spoiler:

I do not see the need to bus her this early into the day phase. Scum has a massive tempo advantage as they might now have no PR roles to worry about. Kirari was in a bad spot towards the end of day 1, but not nearly bad enough to warrent such a drastic measure as this. While obviously the partner cannot white-knight scum!Kirari as that would throw away their lead if Kirari does flip here (as it be easier to associate the two together), no one really is cautiously supporting the wagon while providing reads on others to deflect the wagon off scum!kirari. 3b is really the only one offering any sort of counter aggression to the lynch, but shuts down Kirari's out on floof here:

Yoooh is probably town. I think highest hit % is on the Alo wagon. The build up was too fast to be all town on there.

It could be to provide distance, but I think scum!3b along with scum!kirari wouldn't shut down the wagon and force themselves into a position where they are left only voting Alo's wagon. That would mean they are going all in on pushing me this day phase which seems like a suicide mission as what the hell will they do post day 2 if they achieve it? Kirari most likely will get lynched and 3b wouldn't be that far behind.

The fact the game state is so comfortable in this situation when the entire scum team should be trying to pivot this if kirari is scum is alarming and points to kirari actually being town.

Even if you disagree and think Kirari is being death bussed:

2) scum!kirari being lynched is god-awful for scum:

Spoiler:

By having her flip red, the game becomes a lot easier to read. I would move up on peoples town list due to Kirari's read progression on me painting me as town. Her interactions with Monkey today cements him as town too and the casting of shade onto cli2d throughout the game most likely gets him ranked higher too. That makes 3 strong town reads that most people agree with leaving [LL, 3b, Floof] as the last possible scum pool. I think depending on how you read the Floof interaction right now, you could cross Floof off that list making the game nearly impossible for scum to win (unless for some reason Monkey/Cli2d as scum hard pushed their teammate today). Scum would be dying to try and move the lynch as a resort, and quite frankly that is not what has been happening as Kirari is the only one understandably fighting the lynch. Thus, this supports the idea that kirari is town here.

3) Town!Kirari is great for scum to mislynch

Spoiler:

Obviously any mislynch is good for scum, but a kirari mislynch sets up scum in a very strong state to win the whole game. I can see a plan where they mislynch kirari today and then push me off of the suspicions raised during today by both kirari and others, carrying them into mylo/lylo (last lynch). From there, depending on how day 3 plays out and if they lynch me, they might have enough ammo to easily win the game depending on who exactly scum is. This is speculative of course, but since I know my alignment, I do see this gameplan easier. I think too they can spin kirari's posts so far earlier today to even throw shade at HEM and in general remove stronger town reads from everyone's list.

Outside of that, town!Kirari is quite hard to predict so far, and given the high activity, could prove to be a threat to scum. Since the suspicious were decent EoD day 1, I can see why they would push her even if they haven't thought that ahead.

In conclusion,

despite the fact individually I find Kirari's posts scummy, the thread sentiment here makes more sense only if Kirari is town. I doubt scum is willing to risk such a high risk low reward gambit by death-bussing here when they are this ahead in the game, and it makes a lot of sense for town!kirari to be scum's preferred lynch here. Going off this, I think those who are either pushing the wagon without directly taking the reigns of it most likely is the scum driving this. I need to go back throughout today to figure out how everyone's push/read progression has changed before I can feel certain where the scum is.

For context this is before Luckys Tracker claim when the entire thread was scum reading and pushing for a kirari wagon. I still think it is worth considering these points because of a few clear ups I had with the logic here:

1) 3b was scum reading kirari unlike I had thought and thus the point of scum hard bussing is strengthen as nobody up until my post had fought the kirari wagon. This is coupled with 2) upon rereading day 1 EoD kirari wasnt in an unsalvageable position. Making it more confusing for scum to leave their partner to die.

Since that post:

Kirari had displayed some desire to solve the game despite continuing to be scum read by most: while kriari is a SE and I would expect them not to give up, their posts felt like they were genuinely attempting to analysis the game from all prospective angles. Some of the logic was faulty, but the motivation is still there. You or somebody else brought up how kirari seemed to be muddying the waters given how they read into everybody, but given their situation of being today's lynch, I think it makes sense for town!kirari.



As to why it stalled later around the time the two (kirari/3b) I think that's partly more due to players fatigue at the Lucky/Kirari interactions rather than the two wagons being scum. Iirc, 3bs wagon grew quickly as well up to L1 but being on mobile I cannot check easily.

Additionally, and this is less logically based but has some merit, it's worth noting im my mind how people didnt take me up on declaring kirari as town or scum instead of the hedging most people were doing that time. I think scum benefits more from not trying to enforce my expressed desire for a formal declaration from everybody as it cuts out a mislynch potentially if kirari is town. Since that is what happened, I'm leaning to this showing kirari is more likely town.

I also dont think 3b/kirari makes given a point I raised in my post above that 3b prevented himself from being on the yooh wagon eariler when kirari was pushing it which I dont see scum buddies do especially that early into the phase.

i'm gonna find out why this is weird after Kirari replacement appears.

Why is it dependent on the kirari replacement?

Honestly I'm finding the replacements harder to read since they have the ability to read d1 and up to this point d2 objectively. It's what I learned back in my newbie game as scum replacing in. It's much easier to read the game when you arent responsible for advancing it further at that given point unlike if you have to formulate a response to keep pushing.

It's nothing nobody can do as it's the nature of replacements in general.

As for the whole pan seems scummy. So did LL even post claim. I still think that the suppose Gambit of scum claiming tracker to push an non incremidenting check is quite flawed. While there can be explainations for why tracker doesnt die tonight (rbed and someone more widely town read is picked off like monkey assuming 3b =/= rb), LL really went all in on his kirari tunnel while only providing small instances of being able to push others (me) which would fall apart if kirari flips town.

Although Pan is undermining this by doing it (having his scum pool include four people), I think the logic is still valid retrospectively.

Do you disagree with this monkey?

Theres another post from awhile ago that explains the LL more but I have to dig it up.

[Rectiplanes]

It should be noted that I played in a game with Lucky, same one Clidd played with him in, and I generally agree with Clidd's assessment that Lucky wouldn't pull a stunt like gambiting tracker as scum. Not really his style of madness.

[3bounty]

Guys I think there's more than enough votes for a lynch. Hammer me, then lynch between HG/HEM/Kirari. If tracker was a fake claim there's absolutely no chance we win and we have to sing our praises to LL post game.

I'm a few days late to the dead thread already.

[Tuxedo Mask]

@Holden, for flip-flopping, that impression comes from your analysis of day 1 HEM. Which ends with sequel bait that never pays off. I have trouble placing it as genuinely unsure and taking in all possibilities, or, well, being wishy-washy.

[HoldenGolden]

Sorry 3b, your suffering will keep going until Monkey gets his Kirari replacement.

Have you made that post about who specifically is my partner, or are you just saying its HEM/Kirari?

pedit- I haven't finished it since I'm pretty sure 3b will flip scum thus invalidity the purpose of making the squeal and the read itself given my 3b/HEM feelings. That and I am just at the point of getting this game over hence why those paying attention have probably picked up on my plan.

At least it seems monkey has somewhat

[Tuxedo Mask]

Gotcha, just thought I'd mention it because it was on my mind answering that question.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Guys I think there's more than enough votes for a lynch. Hammer me, then lynch between HG/HEM/Kirari. If tracker was a fake claim there's absolutely no chance we win and we have to sing our praises to LL post game.

I'm a few days late to the dead thread already.

[Tuxedo Mask]

I got Holden and 3B thoughts that I'll post tomorrow.

[Tuxedo Mask]

@HEM, can I talk about 3B and Holden, or should I wait for the replacement?

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Votecount 2.Replacement

3Bounty (1)

- Rectiplanes,

Not Voting (6)

- Tuxedo Mask, Kirari Momobami, Peter Pan, 3bounty, HoldenGolden, humaneatingmonkey,

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Deadline is in Limbo

[Rectiplanes]

I'd go ahead, Tuxedo, it gives us something to read.

[Tuxedo Mask]

It's not too complicated, just boiling down that I can't envision 3B/Holden Scum team. It doesn't make sense to me.

First, at the start of Day 2, they're the ones that hold off from Kirari wagon. Which could make sense if HEM's theory is correct, of scum think Kirari is such an easy lynch that they'd rather look good by avoiding it, and let the mislynch run itself. However, it doesn't make sense for that to go into Holden and 3B gunning for each other all of day 2.

Why would a scum team dedicate all their effort trying to present a counter wagon to a mislynch on their own partner?

Spoiler: Does this post make sense on 3B/Holden team?

Ok, now that I am done with the draft workshop and my obligated school duties, I am here.

I am a bit worried how the game has slowed down again post LL's claim in the last 24 hours. This game-state of uncertainly and the lack of a clear wagon is advangtious to scum right now.

Everyone, today, must without question town/scum read Kirari and act accordingly. If Kirari is to be lynched, then it needs to be today for it to be the most effective instead of, worse case, us lynching a town and having to sort them out Day 3 in mylo. If scum does flip later, we can debate lynching Kirari if need be. This needs to be resolved now rather than later since we are facing 2 and a half days almost with no clear coalition of votes on anybody.

I am in the boat after much thought that Kirari is still town post LL's claim. The reason why I had debated it since my thread sentiment post is the interaction between Yooh and Kirari. This first pinged me as a TvS interaction is the tonal impact of it felt off in my gut. Upon rereading, I found Yooh's tone more and more believable making me question my read on Kirari. After thought, I think it makes more sense that kirari is town there and that I am most likely wrong about the interaction being TvS.

My vote for today's wagon is 3b. I already provided a detailed potential team pair with him, however individually I do find him scum regardless. His reaction to my case is partially damning as his initial response reads off as a shading attempt to shrug off my case for a reason that is clearly false if my case was actually read. I expect town!3b, if genuinely interested in scum hunting, to question why I seemingly omitted that point and understand my logic behind the day cli2d sheep vote. Especially since by his own admittance his scum pool is quite large (Me, HEM, Kirari, and now Floof given his 100% cannot be town read on the gambit). This highlights the overarching issue with his game play thus far. He seems more interested in opening up avenues to scum read people rather than narrowing down his scum pool for the most part.

VOTE: 3bounty

To go into some more specifics I'll highlight some things from 3B.

Spoiler: Back to back posts

In post 820 Alo said it himself, our best option was to hammer. His last scum reads were HEM/Clidd. But then sheeps HEM's vote on Kirari and asks for Clidd to join the wagon. HIS TWO SCUM READS.

Hammering after that was not at all scummy.

Yooh was right in that you still had time to grill me and check who would jump at the wagon I'm trying to form on you. So I consider your hammer pretty scummy.

Actually hammering like that basically guaranteed you were alive day 2, so if I had you as town making a stupid play it was actually a great hammer tbh

Avoiding the lynch D1 does not guarantee seeing D2 though. This comes off as if you have a scum POV.

These contradict, and do look like that idea of a scum pushing a Kirari wagon while "town reading" them.

Spoiler: Setting Holden up for a mislynch

In fact I'll expand the question to the whole game.

Assuming Kirari is scum here, who is their partner given today's and day 1's interactions? 3b made since until he denied an out for Kirari.

Todays interactions. Definitely you.

D1 Kirari/Holden team doesnt make sense though.

If 3B is scum, and Kirari is town, then he'd know her flip would make Holden a prime target.

3B's D2 Lynch pool has been those that mislynched day 1.

That list is:
3B - Himself
LL - Town reads
Kirari - Town reads
Clidd - Doesn't mention/town reads
Holden - The only one he pushes

Would a scum team this ahead need to go after each this hard?

[Tuxedo Mask]

Votecount 2.09

Kirari Momobami (3)

- Yooh, 3bounty, LuckyLuciano

3bounty (3)

- humaneatingmonkey, Kirari Momobami, HoldenGolden

Not Voting (1)

- Clidd,

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2020-04-26 09:10:00)

Correct The Day Timer is Stopped But the Game is not Stopped. If a lynch is achieved. A lynch will happen.

Also, this is interesting, the vote count right before all the replacements.