Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

[Firebringer]

or I should say "I don't think abr even imagines he gets mislynched day 1".

[DonCorleone]

Idk if he claims gun I’ll listen but until/unless that happens I don’t think it’s a reason to leave him be

Like you’ve floated the theory now so if he is then scum are already going to be working through it

[DonCorleone]

We could also lynch Knightmare

[Firebringer]

knightmare def town.

I could vote eyestott again.

[farside22]

im just gonna say it because ive been thinking it for awhile.
I think ABR hs been quiet is because he doesn't want to be shot tonight and he has one of the town guns.

So id kind of rather ignore him today

or he is scum.
Just saying there are a few quiet players in the game.
But, but, but, I will play devil's advocate and allow that possibility go for now.

VOTE: maria

Idk if he claims gun I’ll listen but until/unless that happens I don’t think it’s a reason to leave him be

Like you’ve floated the theory now so if he is then scum are already going to be working through it

This^^^^

I would rather not have mass claims day 1.

[DonCorleone]

I’d rather lynch Knightmare > eyestott just bc I do agree with mariaR’s take on the stasis around those two wagons making it more likely that eyestott is town even if he hasn’t been solving

We can still lynch him if needed because of lack of solving in ISO but if I was going to be arrogant and say that I believe that my reads are likely to be right then I’d say that of the 3 top scumreads he’s the most likely to be town

[DonCorleone]

knightmare def town.

I could vote eyestott again.

Why def town?

[DonCorleone]

fakegod, is eyestott being replaced?

[DonCorleone]

Please post at least once every four days. If you fail to do so, you will be replaced.

Jesús Christ, guess not

[FakeGod]

fakegod, is eyestott being replaced?

Currently waiting for his response.

[Firebringer]

or he is scum.Just saying there are a few quiet players in the game. But, but, but, I will play devil's advocate and allow that possibility go for now.

idk I feel like I might be overthinking abr mindset since he isn't posting much to show what he is really thinking and this could all just be he just isn't interested in this game.

a literal he just isn't interested in us. What a shame.

But ABR is one of those players I consider in that big egocentric mindsets. And that mindset would definitely go for the whole plan of "well I have a gun, ill lie low so scum don't try to shoot me since I am a strong player, and then I can aim at whoever I find scum"

I mean I would consider that thought process to naturally comes to someone like ABR it makes so much sense that is his approach right now.

If he had a rose, even if he wasn't interested I think he would have posted more.

[DonCorleone]

Oh cool, alright

[DonCorleone]

NB: if ABR flips scum then reconsider firebringer

[Firebringer]

btw I picked rose so town wouldn't shoot me.

[lilith2013]

Eh I don’t think a scumbuddy would defend this openly and this hard

[Firebringer]

also everyone thinks I would naturally go for a gun so me going against wht people expect me to do is my modus operandi

[Firebringer]

Eh I don’t think a scumbuddy would defend this openly and this hard

ive hardclaimed masons with my scumbuddy before! don't tell me how hard I would defend my buddies!

[farside22]

I am silently crying inside.

[Firebringer]

btw I am masons with ABR.

fakegod made a last minute change to setup. He will announce it later sometime. Maybe post game.

[DonCorleone]

also everyone thinks I would naturally go for a gun so me going against wht people expect me to do is my modus operandi

I believe you’d go for a rose

OR I think you chose a gun and you’re bluffing scum and I’m trying to give credence to that belief in the eyes of scum

[Firebringer]

I am silently crying inside.

we will kill u last farside. After u have been beaten so bad and then u will beg us for the sweet release of death.

And then me being merciful, I shall oblige.

=)

[DonCorleone]

Eh I don’t think a scumbuddy would defend this openly and this hard

It’s about the momentum. If ABR ever flips scum then it’s worth remembering that firebringer pushed a theory that meant he shouldn’t be wagoned right at the moment when he might have been. Again, that doesn’t make firebringer scum in a world of ABR!scum but it does mean he should be double checked whereas rn I think he’s just town

[Firebringer]

I believe you’d go for a rose

last time I played this I was scum and I took a rose.

sadly it didn't save me from being shot by town.
Shouldn't have picked Night 3 rose.

[Firebringer]

and whats tragic is i had majority of town except for one of the town fooled!
that one town had a gun and shot me on Night 2.

it was tragic.

we still won though. My teammates both had guns.

[Knightmare491]

eyestott

:

hey guys help me out here, what would happen if there is a massclaim

Spoiler:

The question is, during a mass claim, will the three scum all claim gun, all claim rose, or some mixture of the two?
statistically, (assuming that all townies claim truthfully) there are four scenarios

1: 8 town rose claims, 6 town gun claims
2: 9 town rose claims, 5 town gun claims
3: 10 town rose claims, 4 town gun claims
4: 11 town rose claims, 3 town gun claims

in scenario 1, we confirm 8 players as town, and in scenario 4, we confirm 3 players as town.
2 and 3 arent quite as useful scenarios, but they do allow us to make interaction based scumhunting much more accurate, especially within the n+1 claim groups (rose in 2, gun in 3)

The main downside to this is that it gives the mafia full setup knowledge (other than which night people's activities activate).

So my question to you is:
When does the benefits of a mass claim outweigh the drawbacks? And given that a single fakeclaim from town would ruin said plan, how likely do you think a town fakeclaim would be?


Maybe once one scum is dead, and there's only 3 scenarios, all of which result in the 2 scum either being in the same group (clearing the other group) or different groups (narrowing down possible pairs from factorial based to multiplication based)

*about an hour later*

eyetott

:

I'm an expert about this massclaim thing

Spoiler:

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

I see a flaw in your plan! What stops 1 of the scum from claiming gun? Do you still lynch in the guns aiming to hit them?

If you were joking, I apologise and give you permission to berate me.

Scum either choose to give us 3 ICs or put themselves in the lynchpool. If all 3 scum choose to claim having a gun then we can make the 3 shoot the other 3.

Why are you assuming scum ever put more than 1 of them as gun claims? One of them will fakeclaim gun, and so lynching in the gun pool is going for 1/4 chance of scum if we do this. Lynching in this game regularly is going for 3/13 chance of lynching scum, which is actually only marginally lower odds than your strategy which requires a mass claim and giving scum all the cards.

It's 14 not 13. Like I said it gives the vig a pool to shoot in. If only 1 of them claims to have a gun, we lynch 1/4, 25% chance to hit scum, vig kill reduces the pool even further. We lynch scum day 2 or 3 max. Guaranteed. What cards are we giving the scum please tell me? How does it hurt town.

The fact that you don't see how this negatively impacts town is worth -2 townreadpoints.

Now I know Paragon answered his questions and told him that mass claiming would be bad, but he went from having question about massclaiming to straight up accusing someone(me) for not knowing the negative impacts of it.