Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]

[Green Crayons]

Because her posts feel good and true. And Isis said so based on some surface level meta.

[Green Crayons]

Nope. Double checked. Wasn't Isis, but Looker.

[Elements]

am i wrong?

yes

[humaneatingmonkey]

so you 100% believed that it's a joke? why did you get on board anyway?

[Elements]

I thought it was a reasonable plan, still don't rlly see what's wrong with it tbh

[humaneatingmonkey]

see what i mean

[votato]

I thought it was a reasonable plan, still don't rlly see what's wrong with it tbh

it cant be both a joke and a reasonable plan.

[Green Crayons]

still don't rlly see what's wrong with it tbh

What do you currently see right with it?

[Elements]

where's this ide that I thought it was a joke coming from?
g

[humaneatingmonkey]

lmao

[Elements]

lmao

thank you, I like to think I'm funny

[humaneatingmonkey]

but really tho

[Alisae]

the firebringer behind the murder

haha whos this guy

thats why you're basically doing nothing this day phase got it

[Deimos27]

Cool, I get to play my favourite game: How Many Scum on the Deimos Wagon?

First I'll respond to the push

Spoiler: Firebringer + Green Crayons

There is a lot in 376 I don't understand.

276 Damn this heavy analytical players are going to drive me up a wall. The complexity of their mind is harder for me to grasp. They go a few hundred miles a minute within a few sentences. Nothing sticks out to me as saying he is just fabricating analysis, but to me the highlight was Elements. He came to a similar conclusion as me. And he doesn't have the experience or I don't think he does have the experience with Elements so this could be someone from a scum mindset who picked up on something and is highlighting it show he is thinking deeply. Like showing your sleeves while having a knife tucked in your shoe.

My experience with Elements was irrelevant to my read, since all I said was that the meta evidence provided by Isis does in fact imply town!Elements. Yes, there is a world where Isis was intentionally trying to mislead the others into townreading Elements, e.g. if she is scumbuddies with him, but it's pretty unnecessarily risky in case there are other players with much experience with him. So I'm not trying to show I'm thinking particularly deeply, I'm literally sheeping the read of someone who has more experience with the player, because the conclusion follows from the evidence provided.

288 Posts like this always make me think. What is the purpose? What do you think you are conveying and how do you think this analysis is helping you? To me, the mindset is generally to see whose thought patterns can be manipulated and I think he is picking up Votato as a potential ally.

How do I think the analysis in 288 is helping me?
1. If I determine that a post by votato is scum-indicative, that is helpful, because it means lynching him has a higher probability of success than other alternatives
2. If I determine that town!Isis = True supports that conclusion, that is helpful, because it means that if Isis flips green later votato is even likelier to be scum
It should be painfully obvious how I think the analysis is helping me. It's helping me sort.

Why do you say I'm picking up votato as an ally? I literally sl him in the same post. I defend him from one argument, because that argument is rubbish, which is important to do so that everyone can more accurately perceive which posts are AI and to what extent, so that the odds of lynching scum are maximized. That doesn't mean I suddenly tl him.

320 Good reads here I actually think. He isn't shading HEM which I think would be the actual scum modus operandi, considering this is the opportunity to double down and force a ditotemy of Votato/him town.

Seeing as I never claimed to be townreading votato, I don't see why I would try to force a votato/Deimos townblock as either alignment.

325I would think he would pick up Isis read is based on meta if he was analyzing that more. Maybe not.

I don't follow what you're saying. Isis has a read based on meta? Someone has a metaread on Isis? I have no clue what I'm supposed to be picking up on here.

The tldr is that Deimos is doing plenty of analytical posts where he just makes observations or raises questions but never really does anything substantive with these lines of discussion to formulate reads.

FB hating on analytical posts is bad form and we should shame FB for it.

What do you consider doing something substantive? If my analysis didn't determine AI behaviour it would be pretty bad analysis; each post of mine comprising analysis also includes the reads I get from that analysis. These reads aren't phrased as particularly strong, and some are associatives, but that reflects my confidence in them. D1 can be a big confbias trap and a lot of reads are more confident than they should be. I think probabilistically: x has a slightly higher chance of being scum than y, etc. If you were annoyed that I wasn't voting anyone, I was intentionally putting it off until I was caught up.

So he's effectively emulating the hard part about scumhunting as scum, and not cashing in on the part where he gets to mislynch people? You really sound like you're bad-casing him.

You mean being active and looking productive without being productive? lol that's not town.

You mean being active and trying to make cases but being unable to make a good case against town? That aligns with an analytical scum who hasn't yet found a plausible bad case to push.

It's not a slam dunk but scum have pulled it before. Especially when they are replace-ins, they do long catch ups.

Which conveniently he's been doing this entire game even though he isn't a replace in. Catching up without any delivery.

This is both misrepresentative and a bit unfair. I haven't been catching up the

entire game

, I've been doing it for one day.

One

day. Because I was V/LA for the first 3-4. I spent a lot of time yesterday on that catch-up analysis, and I don't think it's fair for you to expect me to already be pushing for lynches when I'm not even fully caught up. You have the benefit of having your ideas mulling around for days, I do not.

Next up, analysis of the wagoners:

Spoiler: Is this a counterwagon?

The situation from which we started:

Votecount 1.10

Target	Wagon
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Alisae (134), Green Crayons (178)
votato (2)	humaneatingmonkey (105), Elements (230)
Green Crayons (2)	Isis (228), Firebringer (235)
Isis (1)	Albert B. Rampage (263)
Firebringer (1)	Cycle Men (152)
Elements (1)	Looker (246)
humaneatingmonkey (1)	votato (239)
Cycle Men (1)	NorwegianboyEE (155)
Not Voting (1)	Deimos27 (269)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

1. Firebringer
Firebringer has a fluffy meta that he has equity not to break as scum (correct me if I'm wrong that a long ISO analysis is rather uncharacteristic of him) unless he

needs

his wagon to catch traction or he

needs

to be townread. The top three wagons were tied against not-Firebringer. This means there was no real threat to him, and unless the scumteam is exactly Firebringer/Norwegian/votato/Green Crayons, scum!Firebringer had an easier target to push than Deimos.
Conclusion: scum!Firebringer -> unlikely

2. ABR
Proclaimed scumreads on Isis and me, so after I catch the Firebringer vote, wanting to wagon me is consistent. He seems to tr Firebringer, since respect for him is part of the vote reasoning.
Conclusion: NAI

3. votato
Townreads me but votes me because he promised he'd sheep ABR.

im fine with norway, isis, FB, crayoneater pressure. I'll follow your lead here ABR.

Nothing here implies that votato would be fine with Deimos pressure, so I don't see why he has to follow through on that promise, it comes off as incredibly opportunistic. Yet if this is him trying to deflect pressure off his own slot (or possible scumpartners), it's the weirdest opportunism ever. Instead of making some contrived scumread on me he professes a townread and... votes me anyway. scum!votato would be digging his own grave if this lynch were to ever go through with him having that stance on it. Then he unvotes before I even respond. Which again raises the question of why he was so quick to sheep it in the first place.
Conclusion: ??? votato is weird, this can come from both bad scum and bad town and I'm not sure how to weigh which one is more likely

4. Green Crayons
His vote timing is weird because he checks with Firebringer first whether "scum raccoon" means voteworthy, and only joins after the other three votes, which comes off as potential opportunism. I also don't see how any of Firebringer's points demonstrate scum-indicative behaviour, but then again, I didn't see how HEM quoting three scumleans is town-indicative, so it could be I just operate on a very different wavelength than Crayons. And there's plenty of town motivation to pressure me into producing a readslist and vote.
Conclusion: NAI

If there is scum opportunism on this wagon it's most likely in the form of votato or Crayons, or alternatively better disguised under ABR. Votato is the most suspicious but all over the place in any case. Firebringer's vote felt the towniest of the bunch.

5. Cycle Men
Woah what why is Cycle Men on my list of wagoners?

does it have merit though? i feel like that's a really narrow, forced angle to look at things
when something forms a story way too conveniently i think its time to rethink

Because I read this as a very unnatural defense. Instead of thinking critically about the arguments offered he vaguely states that the perspective is "narrow" and "forced" and needs to be "rethought", without elaborating or expressing any other care for whether I'm lynched. It comes off as scum wanting towncred in case of Deimos mislynch but not actually wanting to prevent a Deimos mislynch. His tr of me in 309 combined with his unwillingness to respond to my 334 gives me a similar sense of lacking paranoia about my alignment.

I have two other concerns as well.
Firstly, I read his tone shift from initial indifference to sudden frustration/defensiveness in 215 as rather faux, unless he has some explanation to offer as to why he's suddenly getting frustrated when that's not his predisposition earlier on (e.g. against Norwegian's vote in 155).
Secondly, I think his confidence in calling Crayons town is inconsistent with his prior beliefs that early reads are all pretense and uncertain, especially since his read of Crayons can basically be summarized as a toneread (he has an "aura", 326). Which leads me to think that read is also probably fabricated.

Yes, there's a possible world where this is town!Cycle Men who somehow felt so pressured that they ended up inadvertently faking their reads. There is a world where this is town!Cycle Men who has zero trust in my scumplay. There is a world where this is town!Cycle Men and some issues irl meant that they were in more capricious a mood than usual and got frustrated.

But I think each of those cases are less likely than their respective denials.

I have town leans on HEM and Firebringer.
So far I feel like I've mostly been on the same page with Isis and Alisae in terms of logic, which I consider a good sign. I'll get around to skimming through their meta before I settle on tr's there, since these two seem experienced enough to be faking the thought processes.
I need more from Looker and ABR so I can get in these players' heads.
Norwegian and Elements need re-reading. My initial catch-up thoughts were slight leans towards scum!Norwegian and town!Elements but those were back on like page 4 so these folks are first on the to-ISO list.
Green Crayons I'm undecided on, I especially want to think more about the thinking-there-was-only-3-scum ordeal.
Votato has promise as an alternative lynch. I still sl him a bit for earlier, and I'm generally confused about his behaviour surrounding my wagon here.

My vote wants to be here:
VOTE: Cycle Men

[Deimos27]

And yes, I gave up on the near post-by-post because this game progressed by like a million pages overnight again and I don't have the time nor stamina for that.
I am caught up now though.

[Deimos27]

"Gamesolving content" How pretentious. You think you're actually L, don't you? Do you feel that Albert, Alisae, and Elements are all town? Do you feel that either Cycle Men or NorwegianboyEE are scum?

I made this account in 2016. I added this profile pic in 2016. No, I don't think I'm L. No, I don't think I'm some mafia god. I refer you to my above post regarding your questions about reads.

Define "serious". If you're asking if it counted toward a lynch, it did.

Serious = non-RVS
If you had a scumread on HEM, I was curious what it was based on. You're not really giving a lot to work with here.

And Looker, I want to say that you are an enigma. What is this playstyle and posting style?

[Green Crayons]

Because I was V/LA for the first 3-4.

That's a fair response.

[Green Crayons]

What do you consider doing something substantive? If my analysis didn't determine AI behaviour it would be pretty bad analysis; each post of mine comprising analysis also includes the reads I get from that analysis. These reads aren't phrased as particularly strong, and some are associatives, but that reflects my confidence in them. D1 can be a big confbias trap and a lot of reads are more confident than they should be. I think probabilistically: x has a slightly higher chance of being scum than y, etc. If you were annoyed that I wasn't voting anyone, I was intentionally putting it off until I was caught up.

I'm annoyed by anyone who isn't voting in D1, but that's not particularly the main thrust of my issue. You can formulate reads and push them without wanting to commit to a vote, which isn't necessarily alignment indicative, for example.

Something substantive would be more than what your ISO is. it's mostly a big catch-up of events--which, point taken about your V/LA--that reads more like information over analysis.

[Green Crayons]

I especially want to think more about the thinking-there-was-only-3-scum ordeal.

FWIW you were right, I needed to wait for human to confirm his reason for only 3 suspects first before I could say his mindset was town, based on my own reason for scrounging up three suspects.

lol whoops jumped the gun because I'm strongtown reading human.

[Isis]

I'm still catching up. It's a fast game

spice rack preview though, I think morally reprehensible primate townslipped

[Isis]

Spoiler: GC pocket case

In addition to the points Alisae made against Norwegian,

Shot:

VOTE: Cycle men because Norweescum is likely to reveal all of his teammates and write me poetry

It don’t come so cheap no more. Besides. It’s not like that worked out so well in Fusion mafia. Pocket attempts on you are out of the picture from now on. I know it’s sad for you, but after all... you can only blame yourself. If you had been obediently pocketed i’d let you live on in that sweet sweet blissfull ignorance.

Come on I let you live for like 4 extra dayphases I think that was pretty good repayment

Actually, you were one of the main reasons i was close to having a mental breakdown. All those times you unnecesarilly placed an extra vote on me made me want to break out in tears and confess that i’d been a very bad scum player and deserved punishment.

Chaser:

VOTE: NorwegianboyEE

VOTE: Green Crayons

Good vote Isis.

Interesting review of past events.
Is it wrong that I want to keep Norwee alive for about four days so I can encounter him breaking out in tears and confessing that he's a very bad scum player who deserves punishment though?

[Isis]

Rare case I'll do an ISO because it's so short

I believe Elements was confused as I was that Isis was serious in her proposition.

Elements' townreads are also opportunistic.
#81

on alisae [url=https://forum.mafiascum ... 83693]#230 again on me, monkey
this strikes me as a pocket attempts.

#82
these reads, with nothing to base it on, strike me as TMI. and i dont really buy his justification. even if it's true, it doesn't explain his firebringer read.[/quote]
You know I have since realized with 3 dice the numbering should have started at 3, it wasn't even possible for monkey to get picked.

I'm not as leery about those two naked townreads as you are because a. I don't know Looker super well yet but I think he's pretty unpocketable and b. I think the content to get to firebringer town does exist in the thread

I am realizing in spelling that out that both of those could be projecting to an invalid extent

mafia is hard
my stomach hurts for unrelated reasons

[Isis]

@Isis:

can you please confirm whether you thought Deimos was at L-1 and, if so, it's because that's what you and Norweig decided in the scumchat?

Deimos had 3 votes in a mini so I knew he was at L-gazillion

Norwee does extensively use his daytalk thread when he rolls scum if that's something you want to think about

[NorwegianboyEE]

Is it wrong that I want to keep Norwee alive for about four days so I can encounter him breaking out in tears and confessing that he's a very bad scum player who deserves punishment though?

Isis, cease your terrorism at once.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'll actually read up on the game and post some thoughts early tommorow when i'm not dead on the inside from exam work.
Expect fluff and non-game advancing content though. It's my specialty.