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Post Post #775 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:29 pm

Post by GeorgeBailey »

Votecount 2.01

popopopopopopo(2)
~ (8), (1)

Peter Pan(1)
~ (7)


Not Voting (9): Saudade(0), profii(0), popopopopopopo(0), Firebringer(3), Luna Fox(6), Zantetsu(9), Churros(17), Nero Cain(0)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-20 18:32:20)


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Churros has V/LA through Friday/Saturday/Monday

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Caloscypha fulgens

A springtime cup fungus with orange surfaces that bruise and discolor blue to green, Caloscypha fulgens is found under conifers across North America, but it is much more frequently seen west of the Rockies.
Last edited by GeorgeBailey on Wed May 06, 2020 12:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #776 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:32 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

In post 767, Peter Pan wrote:luke warm take: jake and I were responses to a wagon on scum!popop

VOTE: popopopopopopopo
This reads very badly to me.

1. Churros started the Jake wagon, he created it, pushed it, and gave all the evidence. The Jake wagon almost certainly
never
would have happened without Churros posting what he did at exactly the moment he did (after it was clear that Jake wasn't replacing out, and before Jake had any chance to post much game content). So I would think you'd be suspicious of Churros but you haven't even responded to what I've said about him or questioned him.

2. Alchemist started your wagon so early that it's hard to believe that scum ever would have thought the game being so directly on track to lynch popop that a counter wagon was needed to save him.

3. The only opinions you've ever expressed about Arch is that he's town despite the fact that he started and pushed your wagon, and even now you're not even questioning him, choosing instead to focus on popop than the player who actually started this wagon that you say was a scum response to popop.
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Post Post #777 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:32 pm

Post by Churros »

In your most recent wolf game you said you had broken your past wolf ranges and reading your ISO I found it...less impactful than I expected. You were one of the slots I was wary in early day 1, but I waited to see how it would develop. Your monotone TR on Fire is weird as well, but if that was your best wolf game, I don't know how I could argue you're scum here.

You were barely playing that game...it was kind of a really scummy ISO...
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Post Post #778 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:33 pm

Post by Luna Fox »

In post 777, Churros wrote:In your most recent wolf game you said you had broken your past wolf ranges and reading your ISO I found it...less impactful than I expected. You were one of the slots I was wary in early day 1, but I waited to see how it would develop. Your monotone TR on Fire is weird as well, but if that was your best wolf game, I don't know how I could argue you're scum here.

You were barely playing that game...it was kind of a really scummy ISO...
I wasnt tryharding until midway D2 that game.
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Post Post #779 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:36 pm

Post by Churros »

I'll try to read it again in more detail next time but I didn't feel that you were truly interested in solving the game at any moment there and here you at least feel like you're playing.

You're on my null reads though, nowhere near town read...
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Post Post #780 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:37 pm

Post by Churros »

Who would you vote here Luna?
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Post Post #781 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:37 pm

Post by Luna Fox »

In post 780, Churros wrote:Who would you vote here Luna?
If i were to make a vote right now it would be you.
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Post Post #782 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:38 pm

Post by Churros »

That's a shame I'm town.

Choose someone else, even if only hypothetically.
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Post Post #783 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:39 pm

Post by Peter Pan »

In post 776, Zantetsu wrote:
In post 767, Peter Pan wrote:luke warm take: jake and I were responses to a wagon on scum!popop

VOTE: popopopopopopopo
This reads very badly to me.

1. Churros started the Jake wagon, he created it, pushed it, and gave all the evidence. The Jake wagon almost certainly
never
would have happened without Churros posting what he did at exactly the moment he did (after it was clear that Jake wasn't replacing out, and before Jake had any chance to post much game content). So I would think you'd be suspicious of Churros but you haven't even responded to what I've said about him or questioned him.

2. Alchemist started your wagon so early that it's hard to believe that scum ever would have thought the game being so directly on track to lynch popop that a counter wagon was needed to save him.

3. The only opinions you've ever expressed about Arch is that he's town despite the fact that he started and pushed your wagon, and even now you're not even questioning him, choosing instead to focus on popop than the player who actually started this wagon that you say was a scum response to popop.

I don't think either of them is scum. That doesn't mean that scum couldn't encourage a wagon with an initial push by town. That seems like a normal occurrence. Additionally popop hopped on Jake as the vote after his self-vote, which may have felt like a really safe time to get on. I mean, who could argue that mislynching the self-voter is scummy?

Popop got to -1 and, as has been shown with Jake, this player set is more than willing to lynch quickly, so I'm not sure your theory about how scum would feel is warranted or likely.

You keep wanting me to question people, but you're doing a great job at it, mate. Not my thing
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Post Post #784 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:40 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

In post 771, Churros wrote: What do you mean by..."thinking out loud"? I do have things I've not been saying on thread, they are on my notes PT, but there's no reason for more secrecy than necessary?
I'm just saying it feels tonally different.
In post 771, Churros wrote: Didn't I hold on saying my wolf reads for half day 1 anyway?
Yes you did, but am I supposed to be impressed that you broke your consistent "thinking out loud" approach when the breaking of it led to a town lynch?

All that being said, I still think the case was 100% solid and I have personally never been so surprised by a town flip in my life.

If you are scum, then your team is systematically removing the lurkers, which would be a very interesting and unexpected strategy.
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Post Post #785 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:43 pm

Post by Churros »

I know Zantetsu, after the flip I just wanted to say somehow to Jake that he should stick to bastard and trollish games if he can't take a mini normal seriously or put minimal enough effort to not be told to the mod of all people to play the game.

He was never this disinterested in a town game but I guess we were unlucky enough for this to be his breaking point.

Maybe I should have waited one week as well I suppose, rushing really does no good.

But...I think I gained useful info from that lynch.
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Post Post #786 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:44 pm

Post by Peter Pan »

In post 785, Churros wrote:But...I think I gained useful info from that lynch.
like what
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Post Post #787 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:46 pm

Post by Churros »

Popop is probably scum motivated wagon but I already had a gut about it before Jake flip.

The whole thing just seemed to take me from "maybe?" to "probably".
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Post Post #788 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:47 pm

Post by Churros »

Jake wagon in my opinion may tell us more than you would normally think.

I guess I'll try to explain my opinion.
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Post Post #789 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:47 pm

Post by Peter Pan »

I would appreciate it, Churros
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Post Post #790 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:49 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 721, Zantetsu wrote:
In post 717, Churros wrote:Jake/Peter/Zantetsu interactions are weird

as in

very weird
How so?
In post 722, Churros wrote:I'll explain if I'm alive tomorrow
Speaking of explanations it would be good if you gave this one.
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Post Post #791 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:55 pm

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 787, Churros wrote:Popop is probably scum motivated wagon but I already had a gut about it before Jake flip.
You lost my support at: "Popopo was a scum motivated wagon."
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Post Post #792 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:55 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

VOTE: NorwegianBoy
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Post Post #793 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:56 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

I just don't think NorwegianBoy and Churros can both be town this game.
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Post Post #794 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 12:57 pm

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 793, Zantetsu wrote:I just don't think NorwegianBoy and Churros can both be town this game.
Why me over Churros?
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Post Post #795 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 1:01 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

In post 794, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 793, Zantetsu wrote:I just don't think NorwegianBoy and Churros can both be town this game.
Why me over Churros?
You seem demotivated this game. I'm feeling like you rolled scum. I don't know you well enough to know if playing as scum demotivates you but I'm just not seeing the Norwee I expected this game.

Also I think that going straight to popop and Peter Pan is kind of the obvious scum play.

I mean I like you and want to be town with you but I'm just not feeling town!Norwee here.
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Post Post #796 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 1:02 pm

Post by Zantetsu »

Not that you went to Peter, you went to popop, but I made up my mind overnight to pay attention to anyone trying to immediately start wagons against either of those two, and combine that with already having scum gut feels from you ...
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Post Post #797 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 1:07 pm

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

Obvious scum play? If Elements was shot by mafia then that reveals nothing about the initial wagons yesterday. Trying to find out what was going on is the smart play. And because i’m not feelink like Churros’s case against Jake was entirely unjustified. That makes me wonder about Popopo as having been the most suspicious wagon.
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Post Post #798 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 1:07 pm

Post by Churros »

Mental Wagonomics Gymnastics:

After laying out all the meta case for Jake, he would be found probably scummy to most town players, in my opinion. It was a solid meta case despiste the failed result, and in no point he had played this way as town across more than 5 town games, and in his exact scum game, he had been less active, solvy and stiffer. It matched his play here perfectly.

I was only able to rile up people to vote him, because he looked scummy. That couldn't have been an all scum-wagon, and dare I say, it was a rather quick wagon which I would say comes from how solid the argument seemed to be. However, there's something to consider here.

Even though we thought he was scum coasting as his meta, scum knew from the start he was only lynchbait lurker.

In fact, every bit of what happened here, happened in Large Theme Team Mafia 2020, only now with Elements, and a way less solid case.

Almost every person supporting and being inquisitive about Elements, was town. Mafia knew that he was only lynchbait lurker doing goofy stuff, and wouldn't get blood-eyed about him because they knew he was simply going to flip town. Mafia in those cases often like to take a backseat and let town go in the wrong direction rather than directly rile it up.

Now look at Popop reaction when Jake wagon/argument was coming around:
In post 594, popopopopopopo wrote:OH MY LORD THE LAST FEW PAGES WERE A RIDE

churros is based as fuck
I feel this post can be easily faked...aside from the capslock. It may be silly, but the capslock seems to me like he's "impressed" and "excited" and if scum he would simply know I was being silly about the whole thing.

Luna also was inquisitive about Jake, although to a lesser extent, and Fire voted but didn't do much (I don't particularly find negative or positive). Zantetsu seemed to try to hold a conversation with Jake there and be suspecting him, contrast those to this:

(Peter)
Spoiler:
In post 563, Peter Pan wrote:
In post 558, Churros wrote:If you've a problem with me putting you in the wall, step up instead of acting indignant towards me.
If you think there is a chance jake is town, and would like to give him an opportunity to show it, you should give him some breathing space.
In post 568, Peter Pan wrote:okie doke my b

please carry on with whatever this is
In post 697, Peter Pan wrote:Elements, how's this game treating you so far?
Having fun?


(Proffi)
Spoiler:
In post 628, profii wrote:
In post 447, Jake The Wolfie wrote:I would consider a spontaneous hammer on Peter Pan to be a scum reveal.

However, if everyone had an equal chance to hammer them, who wouldn't be scumclaiming because of it?
Intent to hammer. Please claim


I dont like your concern about voting in sentence 1 there and if we dont hammer someone we will never move on
In post 650, profii wrote:popopopopopopo(6) ~ Luna Fox(24), Firebringer(31), Nero Cain(23), NorwegianboyEE(21), Peter Pan(8), profii(15)

Peter Pan(6) ~ Luna Fox(30), Firebringer(47), Zantetsu(45), popopopopopopo(31), Alchemist21(23), Elements(7)

Jake the Wolfie(6) ~ Luna Fox(49), Firebringer(89), Zantetsu(64), popopopopopopo(44), Churros(135), Jake the Wolfie(39)


Some interesting stuff in there.

With popopo on both the other wagons I'm wondering if that suggests scum #2 is trying to make sure that initial wagon doesn't resurface. Going to apply some scrutiny to {Luna/Fire/Zant} - obviously luna and fire will point out they were on the popopo wagon, but if they have some paltry reason for getting off, then that could be an indication of scum imo.
^ Still considering "popop initial wagon was really scummy, maybe every other is a counterwagon" but wanting to end the day in the "counterwagon" Jake.
In post 675, profii wrote:in the last few games I've played the scum day 1 lynches have had hella low velocity

So to see 3 rapid wagons means we probably arent hitting scum


(Norwe)

Spoiler:
In post 633, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I’m not sure how to feel. On the one hand, Jake’s responses are classic scummy. On the other hand, i still find Churros and Firebringer’s posts a bit weird. Also, why did Firebringer randomly start acting paranoid of Luna? Which posts of theirs prompted this?
In post 635, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 631, Nero Cain wrote:thanks, now we know where to hunt tomorrow.
It sounds like you think he is town.
^ has nothing to do with what Nero was originally saying. Maybe jumping the gun.
In post 637, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 628, profii wrote:if we dont hammer someone we will never move on
Agreed.
Self-vote from Jake gives me a bit of a pause from outright condemning him. It might be scum giving up but i don’t see why he would do it and keep defending himself.
In post 710, NorwegianboyEE wrote:if a lynch needs to happen then let it happen.
VOTE: Jake The Wolfie
I don't have a problem with the hammer but norwe didn't seem to me like he believed Jake was likely flipping wolf here. "if a lynch needs to happen" also kind of seems to imply "hey I'm voting because it's the designated wagon ok?".


I really feel at least one scum did flake on showing support, faith or being inquisitive on Jake wagon and I don't see how all of the above can come from town.

Very unlikely to me. It could have a townie there but all town seems very unlikely. Especially given Proffi/Peter/Norwe are grouping for popop lynch, if that means anything.
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Post Post #799 (ISO) » Wed May 06, 2020 1:11 pm

Post by Churros »

I wouldn't be surprised if the above is exactly the whole mafia team but I don't consider us that lucky especially after Jake flip.

I'm going with:

- Very high odds of at least one wolf.

- Moderate...odds...of two wolves.

- Eh, maybe three wolves. It seems a bit too easy though/Elements kill was too weird. But who knows.
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