Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]

[Albert B. Rampage]

VOTE: alisae

[humaneatingmonkey]

Well I'm telling you that you're misreading it and the context is I want to understand why he wouldn't take NorwEE's wagon. It's not even that hard to understand? Cycle Men and I were talking under the same context there. You're the only one reading it like this. #889 expresses why I don't think what he did makes sense.

[Green Crayons]

it was something i considered a possibility, that people have slowly morphed into "i was sure this was the scumteam at the time" before i could explain myself

there was one specific post from human that absolutely blocked any chance of him being town from my mind

So if you no longer think that the people who were veering away from a cycle-wagon to a Norwegian-wagon are no longer a scum group, are you still standing by your scum-to-town read flip on Norwegian?

[Green Crayons]

I have a double negative in there but I think what I'm trying to say is clear.

[Green Crayons]

You don't net scum points when you're town and you switch to a competing bandwagon to avoid your own lynch.

Exactly.

My point was town!NorwEE would net town points if scum!Clemency jumps on him to avoid his lynch.

Oh I see.

I don't see how Norg-town gets town points if a not-flipped Cycle-scum voted him as a competing bandwagon. Cycle was *fucking activated* by the sudden switch off of him, and it seems weird for a scum slot to get motivated to attack a competing bandwagon that could save his skin for another day.

Hm. Long term, if cycle-scum were to get hung, him switching to a competing counter-wagon *would*, when looking back at a VCA, potentially give Norg-town some town points. (Grumble.)

[Green Crayons]

excuse me, do you want to be lynched? join the wagon.

this one to be exact
i cant squeeze a single drop of town motivation out of this

If I think someone should be lynched, I'm not too terribly concerned about what gets other players on that wagon until we get a flip. Especially if we're talking Day 1 or 2.

Things change later on, but at this stage let all the rationales fly, and land where they may, depending on flips.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: alisae

I know you're waiting for a flip or two to start playing, but at least stick to the high VC wagons when we're in less than 24 hours.

[Elements]

why not join us and make it a high votecount wagon?

[northsidegal]

Votecount 1.38

Target	Wagon
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187)
Cycle Men (3)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
Alisae (2)	Elements (1199), Albert B. Rampage (813)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

[Green Crayons]

Because I haven't seen anything Ali do to be vote-worthy, and I still read her town.

[Green Crayons]

*eir

[Green Crayons]

or, *em

Apologies.

[Deimos27]

Because I haven't seen anything Ali do to be vote-worthy, and I still read her town.

I'm pretty sure Alisae's 1128 is scum-indicative, and that's what ABR picked up on.

[Deimos27]

Cycle Men is still the best lynch though, don't know why we're not doing that first.

[Deimos27]

First, and I said this before, I agree with Deimos' read on Clemency's offbeat comment on his wagon here. I haven't seen him make similar comments on other wagons, so it's not his usual behavior. It's indicative of TMI or scum defending a buddy.

So I scumread him, but I have reservations because he has no counterwagons and I didn't like NorwEE, GC, Elements. So I was betting that if I was right in at least 1/3 of my scumreads, he's probably town.

At L-1, he was about to give up and give no assoc reads — saying he is bad at this game. Okay.

A counterwagon opens around NorwEE. He doesn't take it.

An argument can be made that he is town because there's no reason. But there is.

Clemency is always at a high risk of a lynch, as town or scum. Scum!Celemency knows that he's not getting away from a lynch, regardless of what the town thinks about him.

With that in mind, Scum!Celemency will make town!NorwEE look better and risk a potential mislynch for his scumteam by switching to his wagon. When he is a strong lynch potential at anytime, why would he help town!NorwEE here?

Scum!Clemency will also prefer to not aid the lynch of scum!NorwEE, who has a better fighting chance than he has.

At least town!Celemency has a reason to pursue a NorwEE lynch. He has no idea here what NorwEE will flip and he'll be game to see where the wagon leads to — bonus points for scumreading the slot in the firstplace.

Instead he doesn't take it.

I don't buy that he finds Ali, Me, and Isis scummy for building a NorwEE wagon, a person he scumreads, when he knows he's town. I don't believe he finds it scummy that I'm pressuring him to vote at 24 hours left in the day. If we're scum, we could have just mislynched him and it would have been easy. He would understand that. But what he did here? That's just not an organic progression.

Cycle men you weren’t this active or solvey before. What changed?

i dont like speaking for myself in this regard but activating midway through a game is very consistently my meta

This isn't really what I found in most of his town games. He would remain consistently difficult throughout the day in his town games. But I'm open to being proven wrong.

He also apparently scumreads Firebringer when he made that vote in RVS and his Firebringer read is "Firebringer is Firebringer".

So there.

This is an excellent post and only strengthens my sr of him.
Even if Clem somehow flips green we get associatives on approximately everyone under the sun.

[votato]

Spoiler:

First, and I said this before, I agree with Deimos' read on Clemency's offbeat comment on his wagon here. I haven't seen him make similar comments on other wagons, so it's not his usual behavior. It's indicative of TMI or scum defending a buddy.

So I scumread him, but I have reservations because he has no counterwagons and I didn't like NorwEE, GC, Elements. So I was betting that if I was right in at least 1/3 of my scumreads, he's probably town.

At L-1, he was about to give up and give no assoc reads — saying he is bad at this game. Okay.

A counterwagon opens around NorwEE. He doesn't take it.

An argument can be made that he is town because there's no reason. But there is.

Clemency is always at a high risk of a lynch, as town or scum. Scum!Celemency knows that he's not getting away from a lynch, regardless of what the town thinks about him.

With that in mind, Scum!Celemency will make town!NorwEE look better and risk a potential mislynch for his scumteam by switching to his wagon. When he is a strong lynch potential at anytime, why would he help town!NorwEE here?

Scum!Clemency will also prefer to not aid the lynch of scum!NorwEE, who has a better fighting chance than he has.

At least town!Celemency has a reason to pursue a NorwEE lynch. He has no idea here what NorwEE will flip and he'll be game to see where the wagon leads to — bonus points for scumreading the slot in the firstplace.

Instead he doesn't take it.

I don't buy that he finds Ali, Me, and Isis scummy for building a NorwEE wagon, a person he scumreads, when he knows he's town. I don't believe he finds it scummy that I'm pressuring him to vote at 24 hours left in the day. If we're scum, we could have just mislynched him and it would have been easy. He would understand that. But what he did here? That's just not an organic progression.

Cycle men you weren’t this active or solvey before. What changed?

i dont like speaking for myself in this regard but activating midway through a game is very consistently my meta

This isn't really what I found in most of his town games. He would remain consistently difficult throughout the day in his town games. But I'm open to being proven wrong.

He also apparently scumreads Firebringer when he made that vote in RVS and his Firebringer read is "Firebringer is Firebringer".

So there.

This is an excellent post and only strengthens my sr of him.
Even if Clem somehow flips green we get associatives on approximately everyone under the sun.

if we make posts that are way too long, can we please spoiler them? if we quote posts that are way too long, can we please spoiler them?
cycle men isnt the worst lynch. but ali, elements, norway, and crayons are all better lynches. why lynch a null read with bullshit posts that will give bullshit associations when we could lynch a scum read with legit associations.

[Green Crayons]

sigh


tbf

I personally think he flips town but if it does flip scum then there are probably some things I have to re-evaluate, since I'm off base completely.

that's pretty gross

[Green Crayons]

I'm okay with Norweg, cycle, elements for today. I'll ISO each soon hopefully, maybe.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler:

First, and I said this before, I agree with Deimos' read on Clemency's offbeat comment on his wagon here. I haven't seen him make similar comments on other wagons, so it's not his usual behavior. It's indicative of TMI or scum defending a buddy.

So I scumread him, but I have reservations because he has no counterwagons and I didn't like NorwEE, GC, Elements. So I was betting that if I was right in at least 1/3 of my scumreads, he's probably town.

At L-1, he was about to give up and give no assoc reads — saying he is bad at this game. Okay.

A counterwagon opens around NorwEE. He doesn't take it.

An argument can be made that he is town because there's no reason. But there is.

Clemency is always at a high risk of a lynch, as town or scum. Scum!Celemency knows that he's not getting away from a lynch, regardless of what the town thinks about him.

With that in mind, Scum!Celemency will make town!NorwEE look better and risk a potential mislynch for his scumteam by switching to his wagon. When he is a strong lynch potential at anytime, why would he help town!NorwEE here?

Scum!Clemency will also prefer to not aid the lynch of scum!NorwEE, who has a better fighting chance than he has.

At least town!Celemency has a reason to pursue a NorwEE lynch. He has no idea here what NorwEE will flip and he'll be game to see where the wagon leads to — bonus points for scumreading the slot in the firstplace.

Instead he doesn't take it.

I don't buy that he finds Ali, Me, and Isis scummy for building a NorwEE wagon, a person he scumreads, when he knows he's town. I don't believe he finds it scummy that I'm pressuring him to vote at 24 hours left in the day. If we're scum, we could have just mislynched him and it would have been easy. He would understand that. But what he did here? That's just not an organic progression.

Cycle men you weren’t this active or solvey before. What changed?

i dont like speaking for myself in this regard but activating midway through a game is very consistently my meta

This isn't really what I found in most of his town games. He would remain consistently difficult throughout the day in his town games. But I'm open to being proven wrong.

He also apparently scumreads Firebringer when he made that vote in RVS and his Firebringer read is "Firebringer is Firebringer".

So there.

This is an excellent post and only strengthens my sr of him.
Even if Clem somehow flips green we get associatives on approximately everyone under the sun.

if we make posts that are way too long, can we please spoiler them? if we quote posts that are way too long, can we please spoiler them?
cycle men isnt the worst lynch. but ali, elements, norway, and crayons are all better lynches. why lynch a null read with bullshit posts that will give bullshit associations when we could lynch a scum read with legit associations.

I've been quite liberal with the spoilers so far, if you haven't noticed, but point taken. Votato, my earlier post tag for 588 linked to 558 for some reason, which is why it looked like it wasn't even my post. Now you're here, go to 588, look under the wagon analysis spoiler at point 5, and tell me if you still nullread Cycle Men.

What part of HEM's case do you disagree with?

[Green Crayons]

Like I think that whole interaction with him where I called him stupid for believing that bazzare theory is likely just him genuinely believing it.

Either way I don't care and I'm willing to hammer it if we get it to L-1.
If it town it makes me feel more confident in my reads, if it flips scum then I need to re-evaluate

Is one person flipping town that you read as town really all that great in confirming you're reading scum right?

Why you gotta do this to me, Ali.

[Deimos27]

@Norwegian, use your words and explain to me the Elements wagon. All I see in your iso is a naked vote.

[votato]

deimos, i think youre wrong and looking too much into things. when i read his entire iso in context, i didnt get that feeling at all. it feels like youre cherrypicking. i also dont like being pigeon-holed into defending cycle. but i think theres a lot of silly pressure on him, when he hasnt said very much of anything

[Deimos27]

If you actually want to convince me to vote someone other than Cycle Men today you're either gonna have to elaborate on that defense of him (and why HEM's interpretation of his failure to move onto Norwegian wagon isn't scum-indicative) or you're gonna have to make a hell of a case for whoever your lynch of choice is. Preferably you should do a lot of both.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Don't you guys find it weird that like days ago, the L-1 wagon who no one hammered, is now very hard to push in deadline? Clemency is scum. Flip this slot.

[northsidegal]

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