Newbie 2004: Trash Panada Hour. Redux! GAME OVER

[gibus]

gibus moving your vote that much without letting people respond is just spamming the thread.

yeah you're right

[Freddiethelady]

It’s also making you an easy target

[gibus]

So unless someone gets lynched Day 1, we’d have to wait 10 whole irl days for Day 1 to end? That sounds.. bad for town honestly. Stirs up unnecessary arguments and wagons, probably mislynch someone in the end instead of waiting the time out.

I kind of agree, but I don't have a clear idea. Can someone tell me how D1 lynch is not a purely probabilistic kill?
What qualities can you find in someone's posts that give them a TR? And why can't a good mafia player not replicate said qualities?

If townreads are necessary to find connections between people if they flip scum, how can it not be a case of WIFOM? If it is, won't a lynch always be a purely probabilistic kill?

I don't know if there is a separate thread for this post, so I'm posting it here.

[votato]

mafia is a game of probabilities. everything is probabilistic. The reason you get a bunch of wagons and posts and arguments going during the day-phase is so you have content and interactions to evaluate. You look at people's thought progressions and interactions with other players, and how they move their votes. All of that gives you clues. And yes, its unlikely to find scum on the first day. But its important to get people to express their thoughts so that on day 2 you can evaluate their thoughts in combination with the "flips" - the people who died. An SE might be able to be more helpful. The point is though, its important for town that everyone contributes, posts, votes, shares their thoughts, and interacts with other players.

Also, apparently lynching scum on day 1 actually lowers the win percentage for town. That might not be true in newbie lobbies though.

[Freddiethelady]

I’m trying to learn the distinction also. its like throwing darts at a wall. I think the simple answer is that scum will try to be as inconspicuous as possible. Paying close attention to what a person says and how they say can Give you subtle hints. I’m not good at this yet but a healthy dose of skepticism will help you start to weed out leading clues vs gibberish. It’s not rocket surgery but it does take some practice.

[Freddiethelady]

mafia is a game of probabilities. everything is probabilistic. The reason you get a bunch of wagons and posts and arguments going during the day-phase is so you have content and interactions to evaluate. You look at people's thought progressions and interactions with other players, and how they move their votes. All of that gives you clues. And yes, its unlikely to find scum on the first day. But its important to get people to express their thoughts so that on day 2 you can evaluate their thoughts in combination with the "flips" - the people who died. An SE might be able to be more helpful. The point is though, its important for town that everyone contributes, posts, votes, shares their thoughts, and interacts with other players.

Also, apparently lynching scum on day 1 actually lowers the win percentage for town. That might not be true in newbie lobbies though.

Nice explanation, thanks!

[feathers]

I'm confused mainly because of how long the day 1 wait is.. 10 whole irl days. Seems like it's not just encouraging discussion, but for people to want an actual successful majority vote aka lynch so they could finally move on, which will probably cost us a townsperson. I'd find it more reasonable if the wait was something like 3 days.

[feathers]

Or is that the point? Making people want to lynch to squeeze even more discussion out, just accepting we're killing a town for no reason?

[votato]

we are already closing in on 3 days. have you figured out who is scum yet?

[feathers]

Are we supposed to, on day 1? I have guesses but I don't know if I want to actually lynch based on them.

[votato]

well ideally you progress towards finding out who. My point though is that since we have no content so far, it would be really bad to have a deadline in 36 hours. you should share your thoughts and vote based on them. its ok to be wrong, but sharing your thoughts is good to get the game moving, and is a way to help convince others that youre town. if you decide youre wrong, you can always change your mind later.

@lilith, why hop on the gibus wagon?

[feathers]

Mmh, alright. Just a way to prep the game fully with thought contributions before NKs start I suppose.

Well, my current impressions:
I talked about trusting votato earlier, their behavior still holds I think. Giving pro-town advice, calling out disruptive behavior, asking people to justify stances etc.
Freddie too, maybe. Why did Formerfish say to ask you why he voted Brass in the original day 1, by the way, do you know?

Gibus.. is sus. I was reading some guides and games and it seems one of the tells for mafia is changing votes quickly without conviction.. it's almost like he just wants anyone to get lynched and doesn't care who. But then again could just be impatience with rvs (which is also supposed to be mafia behavior?).
Also, Ironcat, Formerfish, and Lilith haven't been posting much recently or just did it to vote bandwagon, and mafia is supposed to want to lurk more iirc to not draw attention? So I guess I'm keeping my vote on Lilith for now even though I initially did it for a silly rvs reason.

[lilith2013]

well ideally you progress towards finding out who. My point though is that since we have no content so far, it would be really bad to have a deadline in 36 hours. you should share your thoughts and vote based on them. its ok to be wrong, but sharing your thoughts is good to get the game moving, and is a way to help convince others that youre town. if you decide youre wrong, you can always change your mind later.

@lilith, why hop on the gibus wagon?

I wanted to see how people reacted to my vote

Mmh, alright. Just a way to prep the game fully with thought contributions before NKs start I suppose.

Well, my current impressions:
I talked about trusting votato earlier, their behavior still holds I think. Giving pro-town advice, calling out disruptive behavior, asking people to justify stances etc.
Freddie too, maybe. Why did Formerfish say to ask you why he voted Brass in the original day 1, by the way, do you know?

Gibus.. is sus. I was reading some guides and games and it seems one of the tells for mafia is changing votes quickly without conviction.. it's almost like he just wants anyone to get lynched and doesn't care who. But then again could just be impatience with rvs (which is also supposed to be mafia behavior?).
Also, Ironcat, Formerfish, and Lilith haven't been posting much recently or just did it to vote bandwagon, and mafia is supposed to want to lurk more iirc to not draw attention? So I guess I'm keeping my vote on Lilith for now even though I initially did it for a silly rvs reason.

^^^ this is a reaction I’m interested in.
- you call gibus suspicious but are also fencesitty about it
- then you say you are now voting me seriously for being on the wagon of someone you think is suspicious

Can you explain why 1) you are voting me and not the other two “lurkers”? 2) why you are voting me for “lurking” over gibus whom you think is suspicious for actual reasons? (“Lurking” in quotes because I’ve been posting and so has iamironcat, and I don’t think lack of wallposts this early is alignment indicative)

[Formerfish]

I'll be here tonight.

[feathers]

Wow, okay, not lurking. This feels like the landmines I was talking about, I was just putting out guesses. I voted you earlier because you asked me what pbf meant, it's a silly reason since someone explained rvs voting is usually non serious at first. I stuck with it because you're on my sus list, and I heard mafia are more likely to switch votes easily so I didn't want to be seen that way. Seems like in this game people get suspected either way though..

[votato]

Wow, okay, not lurking. This feels like the landmines I was talking about, I was just putting out guesses. I voted you earlier because you asked me what pbf meant, it's a silly reason since someone explained rvs voting is usually non serious at first. I stuck with it because you're on my sus list, and I heard mafia are more likely to switch votes easily so I didn't want to be seen that way. Seems like in this game people get suspected either way though..

but why is she on your suspect list? mafia do change their votes more often, but this early in the game its more ok to. its ok to change away from an RVS vote, since it wasnt serious to begin with. Also, its ok to change your vote so long as you have reasoning for the change. Don't worry about stepping on landmines. Some people might think you're scum for doing it, but you'll learn, and stepping on one or two probably wont get you killed. Don't worry - I think you're town. But as a townie, you dont need to try to look like town. Just act naturally and go scumhunting. Scum have trouble blending in because they cant naturally be towny. You can, since you're town. By artificially trying to look towny youll look artificial. And thats actually scummy. Dont worry about trying to "look like town". Just try to find the scum and people will realize that youre town.

[Freddiethelady]

Gibus seems too sloppy to be suspicious but it could be an act.

I’m suspicious that Lilith is a little more experienced then she’s letting on. I’m not sure why she jumped on the gibus wagon either. I’d love to hear an explanation since it could be AI.

[feathers]

Okay, thanks, that makes sense. She was just on my 'sus list' because she haven't posted as much content. I don't really know that many ways to tell who the mafia are, just some tips I read. Anyhow I was just sharing thoughts and don't have a lot of solid ideas rn, but I guess I suspect lilith a bit less now. I'll change my vote to

VOTE: Gibus

then, he's my most sus for now. I think the paranoia is getting to me already heh.

[lilith2013]

Gibus seems too sloppy to be suspicious but it could be an act.

I’m suspicious that Lilith is a little more experienced then she’s letting on. I’m not sure why she jumped on the gibus wagon either. I’d love to hear an explanation since it could be AI.

I wanted to see how people reacted to my vote

What do you mean by “more experienced than I’m letting on”?

[Freddiethelady]

And @lilith you are posting only a little more then @iamironcat. It might not be AI but it seems interesting to me you jumped to protect ironcat so quickly.

[votato]

Okay, thanks, that makes sense. She was just on my 'sus list' because she haven't posted as much content. I don't really know that many ways to tell who the mafia are, just some tips I read. Anyhow I was just sharing thoughts and don't have a lot of solid ideas rn, but I guess I suspect lilith a bit less now. I'll change my vote to

VOTE: Gibus

then, he's my most sus for now. I think the paranoia is getting to me already heh.

if you're voting someone, its expected that you generally scum-read them. The question is why exactly you scumread them. what did gibus say that set you off?
and its a little bit too early to really tell how active people are. Lilith has posted more than ironcat, formerfish, and lilililili (who hasnt posted at all). Why single her out for being inactive?

Again, don't be too discouraged or nervous: im prodding you to try and get you to think through and process, not because I think you're that scummy.

and lilith is an SE. I dont think that shes trying to tell us that shes inexperienced.

[lilith2013]

And @lilith you are posting only a little more then @iamironcat. It might not be AI but it seems interesting to me you jumped to protect ironcat so quickly.

I mean, we’ve both posted so I don’t really think you can say either of us were lurking. And regardless, this early I don’t think it’s AI. The only reason I didn’t include formerfish in this is because he hasn’t actually posted.

Can you answer my question about me being “more experienced than I’m letting on”? Why is that something you are suspicious of?

[feathers]

Yeah, thanks votato, I really appreciate advice like this! I don't know what to expect yet so I have no idea how people'll take my actions as, they seem very lazer-focused and tense. I guess this is the type of game where you really want to be detailed and confident in making your points. I'll try to do that more in the future.

I didn't single out Lilith, I already voted her earlier for a silly rvs reason and wanted to stick with it.

I'm voting Gibus now because he kept on switching his votes, and wanted the rvs period to end, both of which I've learned are mafia behavior. Like Freddie said it feels sloppy but I think it could be either an act or just inexperience. He's the person who stands out to me the most so far.

[Freddiethelady]

And @lilith you are posting only a little more then @iamironcat. It might not be AI but it seems interesting to me you jumped to protect ironcat so quickly.

I mean, we’ve both posted so I don’t really think you can say either of us were lurking. And regardless, this early I don’t think it’s AI. The only reason I didn’t include formerfish in this is because he hasn’t actually posted.

Can you answer my question about me being “more experienced than I’m letting on”? Why is that something you are suspicious of?

Yes! I’ll have to get back to you - this is a busy time of day for me.

[Freddiethelady]

And @lilith you are posting only a little more then @iamironcat. It might not be AI but it seems interesting to me you jumped to protect ironcat so quickly.

I mean, we’ve both posted so I don’t really think you can say either of us were lurking. And regardless, this early I don’t think it’s AI. The only reason I didn’t include formerfish in this is because he hasn’t actually posted.

Can you answer my question about me being “more experienced than I’m letting on”? Why is that something you are suspicious of?

You aren’t posting much, casting votes and defending someone. Not trying to sort out the rules, clarify things or understand people better. It seems a little sus to me, and I could be wrong but it feels lurking to me....That’s why I asked you to explain your vote and your defending.