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[popopopopopopo]

VOTE: peter pan

Let's try this

Sure. VOTE: Peter Pan

this is clearly the fucking bus. do you town read me now?

[popopopopopopo]

vote:peter pan

its fine. their both scum.

[popopopopopopo]

like explain norwe's logic to go from hard scumreading me in #1154 #1099 to voting fucking peter here.

[popopopopopopo]

we're back to L-1

[Peter Pan]

I like alch, luna, zan, churros for town

don't expect a read on suadade or firebringer from me basically all game because I can never get a handle on either of them

nero made an interesting point about popop's tone but i actually think town is more likely to talk to people like their town even when scum reading them than scum is? like, town always knows that they might be wrong, even if they are projecting confidence

more interested in the rage aspect of the post and if anyone has insights into that regarding popop's personality

i find myself not remembering any of norwe's posts, which isn't a great sign, but it also left me surprised by how often a scum read on them seemed to come up. What's the argument for scum!norwe?

I liked profii's contributions earlier, but am unimpressed recently (but I just got prodded too so w.e)

I don't really wanna vote anywhere and it's a gross feeling halp

[Peter Pan]

okay well im at l-1 so that'll do for my final thoughts on the game if im getting the boot here

glglgl

[NorwegianboyEE]

VOTE: Popopopopo

[popopopopopopo]

VOTE: Popopopopo

LOL

[Zantetsu]

Hello. I've written a nice wall about profii.

Spoiler: profii

profii mostly did nothing in game up until this post:

Here is a read

VOTE: popopopopo

The drama of "here's a read" like his vote is expected to be surprising/impactful and without any explanation for the vote itself.

Zantetsu I really thought you were town in that last game. I hope you dont super me here.

Though I guess with 2 townies pushing me hard it made your job easier

Reads like AtE trying to position himself as town who really is worried about being lynched.

Zantetsu I really thought you were town in that last game. I hope you dont super me here.

Why are you bringing this up? Are you feeling town on Zantetsu, but worried they might be scum?

Just saying it tbh

I dont worry about much when I play mafia, do you? Seems like a strange verb to use

When called on it, he tries to come on some kind of counter attack to deflect the suspicion he thinks Norwee has. The second sentence was totally unnecessary, reads like a forced argument, like he feels he has to have a comeback. Considering scum psychology here - I've been scum many times - you often feel like if you don't respond to a statement of suspicion then it will balloon into something bigger. You are worried you have a blind spot - did they just see right through me? You feel desperate to have a response. So you make a lame counter argument like nitpicking on verbs.

And what does such a counter wagon tell you guys?

No one has given any serious thought to why wed get 2 wagons to l-1

I'm sad about that

Positioning himself as being thoughtful about the wagons, as if he has some deep thoughts on why the wagons would go to L-1 quickly. Didn't ask any specific player their thoughts, even though that would be a more effective way (in my opinion) of sorting players, it's all generalized questions to 'everyone'. Also note how strange it is for him to have put popop at L-1 and now be acting like there is some deep reason that we all need to be thinking about for why two wagons went to L-1 (although I always doubt myself when I make arguments like this, because surely profii would realize how odd it would be for him to question wagons going to L-1 when he himself put one of them there?)

I would consider a spontaneous hammer on Peter Pan to be a scum reveal.

However, if everyone had an equal chance to hammer them, who wouldn't be scumclaiming because of it?

Intent to hammer. Please claim


I dont like your concern about voting in sentence 1 there and if we dont hammer someone we will never move on

And yet, he never hammered, despite having ample time to do so. His claim later in the game was that he unvoted "to make people think the Jake wagon was dying." This implies that he was town reading Jake to such a degree that he would now go back on a hammer being needed or else "we will never move on".

Just a reminder profii you never answered this:

No one has given any serious thought to why wed get 2 wagons to l-1

I'm sad about that

Do you think the wagon velocities in this game says something predominantly about town, predominantly about scum, or equally about both?

in the last few games I've played the scum day 1 lynches have had hella low velocity

So to see 3 rapid wagons means we probably arent hitting scum

Back to wagon velocity analysis. And here he explicitly states that none of them are likely to be scum. If he's scum he knows at this point that the Jake wagon is on town, so he's starting a narrative to make himself be towny by leaving the Jake wagon out of 'towny' concern that Jake was going to flip town.

Note that Jake already had been intent-to-hammer'd by two other players. I personally was about 96% convinced that Jake was going to be lynched at this point. It just seemed inevitable given the evidence against him, which I will continue to contend was very strong despite the fact that he did flip town. This is a good place to back off the wagon if you want to look like a cautious town player while still having convidence that a mislynch would go through.

I agree Profii's ISO is not looking good. I learned a new term last game: LAMEIST-Y. I that apropos here?

This

I think it caused the apathy

I didn't get this at all really. I didn't think he seemed apathetic, more just low effort, and it happened well before I wrote my post. It goes pretty much back to the very beginning of the game. Not sure this is AI, but maybe just trying to justify his play style as if it's my fault?

"Intent to hammer Jakez, claim"

"Those wagons are so whacky, probably not hitting scum"

profi, 2020.

Fair one

Just bored of the day. Dont see people going back to popopo, that's the best lynch here

Why is popop the best lynch if he was saying earlier that none of the L-1 wagons were likely to be scum?

I read the thing from jake about "why do I claim here" as a townie not being coached to lure a protective

I guess if the guy hates being scum that explains the absence and the self vote ahead of his inevitable demise

I thought I was the most apathetic, damn.

Directly self-contradicts here. First says he reads Jake as town for saying "why do I claim here". Next sentence he says Jake hates being scum. Finishes with some more AtE baloney.

UNVOTE:

super town unvote

Profii unvoted popopo, not Jake.

mother fucker

nah man, I unvoted popopo to make people think the Jake wagon was dying.

OK so he thinks popop was the best wagon, but he unvoted popop just to make people think the Jake wagon was dying? Why did he want people to think the Jake wagon was dying if a hammer needed to happen to progress the game? Not to mention I still don't understand why he would change his scum read of Jake to town for no reason when all evidence was pointing to Jake scum.

popopopopopopo(6) ~ Luna Fox(24), Firebringer(31), Nero Cain(23), NorwegianboyEE(21), Peter Pan(8), profii(15)

Peter Pan(6) ~ Luna Fox(30), Firebringer(47), Zantetsu(45), popopopopopopo(31), Alchemist21(23), Elements(7)

Jake the Wolfie(6) ~ Luna Fox(49), Firebringer(89), Zantetsu(64), popopopopopopo(44), Churros(135), Jake the Wolfie(39)

Day 2 - popopopopopopo(3) ~ NorwegianboyEE(19), Peter Pan(18), Nero Cain(6)


hmmm.

I'll have a think

This is the second time he's posted this votes list. Just note that he changed the order of the votes, this has already confused at least one player (I myself on reading it the first time he posted it had to go back and re-read all the votes because I didn't remember the ordering being like that). I guess he thinks he is making a point somehow. Again I conjecture that this is just an attempt to appear to be trying to solve by focusing on D1 wagons.

But what is the result of his 'think'?

No posts, a prod, and then:

Changed my mind, popopo can be town

UNVOTE:

VOTE: peter pan

Let's try this

He moves from one D1 wagon vote to the other D1 wagon vote. This after saying earlier that he thought that the velocities of the D1 wagon indicated that none of them were on scum. This after making posts suggesting he was analyzing the wagons - twice. Which implies to me that he would have something to ask players on those wagons, or maybe even vote one of them. Or have any thought process at all about the wagons that leads somewhere other than just voting the other D2 wagon.

Let's go back a bit to his other similar post:

popopopopopopo(6) ~ Luna Fox(24), Firebringer(31), Nero Cain(23), NorwegianboyEE(21), Peter Pan(8), profii(15)

Peter Pan(6) ~ Luna Fox(30), Firebringer(47), Zantetsu(45), popopopopopopo(31), Alchemist21(23), Elements(7)

Jake the Wolfie(6) ~ Luna Fox(49), Firebringer(89), Zantetsu(64), popopopopopopo(44), Churros(135), Jake the Wolfie(39)


Some interesting stuff in there.

With popopo on both the other wagons I'm wondering if that suggests scum #2 is trying to make sure that initial wagon doesn't resurface. Going to apply some scrutiny to {Luna/Fire/Zant} - obviously luna and fire will point out they were on the popopo wagon, but if they have some paltry reason for getting off, then that could be an indication of scum imo.

First I never understood why he said "scum #2", that's just weird. There should be a scum #2 and scum #3, why would only scum #2 be doing something? Just strange.

Says he is going to apply scrutiny to Luna/Fire/Zant. Kind of implies that Luna and Fire could be a scum because of how he thinks they will respond to a line of questioning that he doesn't even actually embark on?

I never saw him apply any scrutiny to any of these players, myself included.

Why were we three singled out? Probably because when he sorted the votes into that list we three were on both the Peter and Jake wagons I guess?

But he had no suspicion of Elements, who was the one who put Peter at L-1. Never even mentioned Elements.

profii is low-effort scum who can't even be bothered to be consistent with his fake reads.

[Zantetsu]

what are the chances all 3 wagons on day 1 were on town? because to me they are pretty slim

From an observer's perspective the base odds are 41.8%.

From a town player's perspective the base odds are 38.1%.

[NorwegianboyEE]

VOTE: Profii
Sure. If we assume that Popopopopopopo and Peter Pan are less likely to be scum, then this seems like a good place to start.

[Zantetsu]

I think my math was wrong on the second part though. Anyway, the chances are somewhere around 40%.

[Alchemist21]

I don’t think popo is flipping scum actually. I don’t think you’re necessarily wrong about Saudade, I’m just pretty sure I’m correct on Peter and that’s the slot with the highest chance of flipping scum.

If I'm town, does that change your view on popop, or are the reads independent?

Independent.

[Zantetsu]

Norwegian you have sheeped me a lot this game. Right from the start.

[Zantetsu]

Alchemist is your entire game really going to be based on an RVS read of Peter Pan? Surely you have more.

[Alchemist21]

I think my math was wrong on the second part though. Anyway, the chances are somewhere around 40%.

I’m getting the same odds for the second part. (9/12)(8/11)(7/10) ≈ 0.38

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwegian you have sheeped me a lot this game. Right from the start.

You seems a whole lot different from the previous game we had. Which suggests you are probably not scum. So i'm just sheeping my townread here.

[Alchemist21]

Alchemist is your entire game really going to be based on an RVS read of Peter Pan? Surely you have more.

I’ve given more reads than just Peter, and I don’t need more on Peter. I know I’m capable of catching scum that early.

[Zantetsu]

So Alchemist you don't think you've confbiased on your subsequent read of Peter Pan? That's a long time to stick on such an early read.

[Alchemist21]

So Alchemist you don't think you've confbiased on your subsequent read of Peter Pan? That's a long time to stick on such an early read.

My early scumreads are correct the vast majority of the time. I’ll still consistently find scum even if I don’t believe it myself.

[Zantetsu]

Did you have any other early scum read this game?

[Zantetsu]

I think my math was wrong on the second part though. Anyway, the chances are somewhere around 40%.

I’m getting the same odds for the second part. (9/12)(8/11)(7/10) ≈ 0.38

Yes but I think those are the odds from the perspective of a town player who was not on one of the three wagons D1, not just any town player.

[Nero Cain]

I like alch, luna, zan, churros for town

don't expect a read on suadade or firebringer from me basically all game because I can never get a handle on either of them

Where are you with me?

[Firebringer]

Hello. I've written a nice wall about profii.

Spoiler: profii

profii mostly did nothing in game up until this post:

Here is a read

VOTE: popopopopo

The drama of "here's a read" like his vote is expected to be surprising/impactful and without any explanation for the vote itself.

Zantetsu I really thought you were town in that last game. I hope you dont super me here.

Though I guess with 2 townies pushing me hard it made your job easier

Reads like AtE trying to position himself as town who really is worried about being lynched.

Zantetsu I really thought you were town in that last game. I hope you dont super me here.

Why are you bringing this up? Are you feeling town on Zantetsu, but worried they might be scum?

Just saying it tbh

I dont worry about much when I play mafia, do you? Seems like a strange verb to use

When called on it, he tries to come on some kind of counter attack to deflect the suspicion he thinks Norwee has. The second sentence was totally unnecessary, reads like a forced argument, like he feels he has to have a comeback. Considering scum psychology here - I've been scum many times - you often feel like if you don't respond to a statement of suspicion then it will balloon into something bigger. You are worried you have a blind spot - did they just see right through me? You feel desperate to have a response. So you make a lame counter argument like nitpicking on verbs.

And what does such a counter wagon tell you guys?

No one has given any serious thought to why wed get 2 wagons to l-1

I'm sad about that

Positioning himself as being thoughtful about the wagons, as if he has some deep thoughts on why the wagons would go to L-1 quickly. Didn't ask any specific player their thoughts, even though that would be a more effective way (in my opinion) of sorting players, it's all generalized questions to 'everyone'. Also note how strange it is for him to have put popop at L-1 and now be acting like there is some deep reason that we all need to be thinking about for why two wagons went to L-1 (although I always doubt myself when I make arguments like this, because surely profii would realize how odd it would be for him to question wagons going to L-1 when he himself put one of them there?)

I would consider a spontaneous hammer on Peter Pan to be a scum reveal.

However, if everyone had an equal chance to hammer them, who wouldn't be scumclaiming because of it?

Intent to hammer. Please claim


I dont like your concern about voting in sentence 1 there and if we dont hammer someone we will never move on

And yet, he never hammered, despite having ample time to do so. His claim later in the game was that he unvoted "to make people think the Jake wagon was dying." This implies that he was town reading Jake to such a degree that he would now go back on a hammer being needed or else "we will never move on".

Just a reminder profii you never answered this:

No one has given any serious thought to why wed get 2 wagons to l-1

I'm sad about that

Do you think the wagon velocities in this game says something predominantly about town, predominantly about scum, or equally about both?

in the last few games I've played the scum day 1 lynches have had hella low velocity

So to see 3 rapid wagons means we probably arent hitting scum

Back to wagon velocity analysis. And here he explicitly states that none of them are likely to be scum. If he's scum he knows at this point that the Jake wagon is on town, so he's starting a narrative to make himself be towny by leaving the Jake wagon out of 'towny' concern that Jake was going to flip town.

Note that Jake already had been intent-to-hammer'd by two other players. I personally was about 96% convinced that Jake was going to be lynched at this point. It just seemed inevitable given the evidence against him, which I will continue to contend was very strong despite the fact that he did flip town. This is a good place to back off the wagon if you want to look like a cautious town player while still having convidence that a mislynch would go through.

I agree Profii's ISO is not looking good. I learned a new term last game: LAMEIST-Y. I that apropos here?

This

I think it caused the apathy

I didn't get this at all really. I didn't think he seemed apathetic, more just low effort, and it happened well before I wrote my post. It goes pretty much back to the very beginning of the game. Not sure this is AI, but maybe just trying to justify his play style as if it's my fault?

"Intent to hammer Jakez, claim"

"Those wagons are so whacky, probably not hitting scum"

profi, 2020.

Fair one

Just bored of the day. Dont see people going back to popopo, that's the best lynch here

Why is popop the best lynch if he was saying earlier that none of the L-1 wagons were likely to be scum?

I read the thing from jake about "why do I claim here" as a townie not being coached to lure a protective

I guess if the guy hates being scum that explains the absence and the self vote ahead of his inevitable demise

I thought I was the most apathetic, damn.

Directly self-contradicts here. First says he reads Jake as town for saying "why do I claim here". Next sentence he says Jake hates being scum. Finishes with some more AtE baloney.

UNVOTE:

super town unvote

Profii unvoted popopo, not Jake.

mother fucker

nah man, I unvoted popopo to make people think the Jake wagon was dying.

OK so he thinks popop was the best wagon, but he unvoted popop just to make people think the Jake wagon was dying? Why did he want people to think the Jake wagon was dying if a hammer needed to happen to progress the game? Not to mention I still don't understand why he would change his scum read of Jake to town for no reason when all evidence was pointing to Jake scum.

popopopopopopo(6) ~ Luna Fox(24), Firebringer(31), Nero Cain(23), NorwegianboyEE(21), Peter Pan(8), profii(15)

Peter Pan(6) ~ Luna Fox(30), Firebringer(47), Zantetsu(45), popopopopopopo(31), Alchemist21(23), Elements(7)

Jake the Wolfie(6) ~ Luna Fox(49), Firebringer(89), Zantetsu(64), popopopopopopo(44), Churros(135), Jake the Wolfie(39)

Day 2 - popopopopopopo(3) ~ NorwegianboyEE(19), Peter Pan(18), Nero Cain(6)


hmmm.

I'll have a think

This is the second time he's posted this votes list. Just note that he changed the order of the votes, this has already confused at least one player (I myself on reading it the first time he posted it had to go back and re-read all the votes because I didn't remember the ordering being like that). I guess he thinks he is making a point somehow. Again I conjecture that this is just an attempt to appear to be trying to solve by focusing on D1 wagons.

But what is the result of his 'think'?

No posts, a prod, and then:

Changed my mind, popopo can be town

UNVOTE:

VOTE: peter pan

Let's try this

He moves from one D1 wagon vote to the other D1 wagon vote. This after saying earlier that he thought that the velocities of the D1 wagon indicated that none of them were on scum. This after making posts suggesting he was analyzing the wagons - twice. Which implies to me that he would have something to ask players on those wagons, or maybe even vote one of them. Or have any thought process at all about the wagons that leads somewhere other than just voting the other D2 wagon.

Let's go back a bit to his other similar post:

popopopopopopo(6) ~ Luna Fox(24), Firebringer(31), Nero Cain(23), NorwegianboyEE(21), Peter Pan(8), profii(15)

Peter Pan(6) ~ Luna Fox(30), Firebringer(47), Zantetsu(45), popopopopopopo(31), Alchemist21(23), Elements(7)

Jake the Wolfie(6) ~ Luna Fox(49), Firebringer(89), Zantetsu(64), popopopopopopo(44), Churros(135), Jake the Wolfie(39)


Some interesting stuff in there.

With popopo on both the other wagons I'm wondering if that suggests scum #2 is trying to make sure that initial wagon doesn't resurface. Going to apply some scrutiny to {Luna/Fire/Zant} - obviously luna and fire will point out they were on the popopo wagon, but if they have some paltry reason for getting off, then that could be an indication of scum imo.

First I never understood why he said "scum #2", that's just weird. There should be a scum #2 and scum #3, why would only scum #2 be doing something? Just strange.

Says he is going to apply scrutiny to Luna/Fire/Zant. Kind of implies that Luna and Fire could be a scum because of how he thinks they will respond to a line of questioning that he doesn't even actually embark on?

I never saw him apply any scrutiny to any of these players, myself included.

Why were we three singled out? Probably because when he sorted the votes into that list we three were on both the Peter and Jake wagons I guess?

But he had no suspicion of Elements, who was the one who put Peter at L-1. Never even mentioned Elements.

profii is low-effort scum who can't even be bothered to be consistent with his fake reads.

How is low effort scum diff than town?

[popopopopopopo]

@zantetsu @alchemist @firebringer

what about lynching norwe