Jigsaw's Revenge - Game Over

[Drixx]

if you want people to stop scumreading you, do stuff worth townreading?

Just sitting there indignant is doing nothing to help your case buddy

Yeah we're just past the point where the effort is worth it. Sorry to be so blunt. I could spend all night reading and make all sorts of notes and I'm still on the list of people the scum hope to mislynch. If I'm eating a lynch then I'd rather do it while there's a chance it doesn't end the game in a scum win.

why must you always play like this Drixx

why

I don't always play like this, but when I do it's because I'm busy and people have silly expectations.

When we last played, we hard pushed each other for a long time, as both town. You had a very high time commitment to that game. Sure that was like 2 years ago and you may have a different schedule now, but I don't understand how asking for your reads or for you to loosely follow a game you signed up for is a silly expectation. If you want sniper questions instead of shotgun questions, then why not just sure the reads you want to and/or have any substance on? I don't get it.

My time availability changed after the game started sadly. Sometimes that happens. Work stuff.

It's not like I haven't posted things that occurred to me ... it's that loud voices dismissed those things and want to push the idea that I'm doing literally nothing. I never do literally nothing.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Eddie Cain

[Eddie Cane]

It's not like I haven't posted things that occurred to me ... it's that loud voices dismissed those things and want to push the idea that I'm doing literally nothing. I never do literally nothing.

Can we lynch Battle Mage? I'm getting super duper scum vibes there.

Can you explain this, for starters?

[GuiltyLion]

I could do Bingle today if we don't wanna let him live through the claim. His catchup is good but I agree with EC it's not like especially town

I could do Blake/Fire slot as well, or Drixx. Those are prob my three acceptable lynches. I'm very iffy on Drixx going back to literally my first game on site I struggled with reading him. I do vibe with his feelings about BM and if he's scum he's quite good at faking that indignant town attitude.

I'm not super sure how I feel about those three overall and I know I gotta make firmer decisions there. I'll put in some real effort tomorrow.

I actually think I wanna go for Firebringer here. I agree with Vecna - Blake's ISO is very underwhelming from what I normally expect from town!Ank, and the defense of Xtoxm and pushing on ABR D2 feels most likely to be scum setting up for better situation on D3.

VOTE: Firebringer

why you seem to have same reads as everyone else?

sorry are you asking me why my reads are my reads

I also feel I've been pretty instrumental in pushing against the popular ABR wagon at the start of today and I've been trying to probe at davesaz/gamma (until he was claimed inno'd) even when most others weren't

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: davesaz

I kinda want to go back here again

is anybody especially townreading davesaz?

[Eddie Cane]

VOTE: Morning Tweet

I would much prefer Dave to Fire, fwiw. Where are your overall reads at rn?

[Eddie Cane]

Sorry that's at GL, the Molla naked vote I was going to question but decided its better for the thread for me to ask less :>

[Firebringer]

I could do Bingle today if we don't wanna let him live through the claim. His catchup is good but I agree with EC it's not like especially town

I could do Blake/Fire slot as well, or Drixx. Those are prob my three acceptable lynches. I'm very iffy on Drixx going back to literally my first game on site I struggled with reading him. I do vibe with his feelings about BM and if he's scum he's quite good at faking that indignant town attitude.

I'm not super sure how I feel about those three overall and I know I gotta make firmer decisions there. I'll put in some real effort tomorrow.

I actually think I wanna go for Firebringer here. I agree with Vecna - Blake's ISO is very underwhelming from what I normally expect from town!Ank, and the defense of Xtoxm and pushing on ABR D2 feels most likely to be scum setting up for better situation on D3.

VOTE: Firebringer

why you seem to have same reads as everyone else?

sorry are you asking me why my reads are my reads

I also feel I've been pretty instrumental in pushing against the popular ABR wagon at the start of today and I've been trying to probe at davesaz/gamma (until he was claimed inno'd) even when most others weren't

gonna have to catch me up, was abr popular wagon that u dismantled? just last page few pages i read seemed like u agreed with consensus

[Firebringer]

GUYS FIRE IS OBVTOWN!

lol why?

[Firebringer]

ohh I also think bbmolla is town btu i said that right when i joined. Not really changed.

Can u please explain doggo

Just the read i got from him when i was following along with game. He was doing his own thing and pushing his reads, didn't seem forced to post and he didn't have this weird vibe i got from him in doubles mafia where he had this weird "i am so excited to play this game" thing to him.

[GuiltyLion]

Where are your overall reads at rn?

Solid town, never voting today - MT, Vecna, Eddie Cane, Vault Dweller

Townreads that I can imagine myself being wrong on but strongly not interested in lynching - ABR, Ircher, pisskop

Meh, would compromise on at deadline but feel like a coinflip, clearly there is likely some town here - Drixx, Fire, Molla, Battle Mage

Scummy and most interested in wagoning - Bingle, davesaz

[GuiltyLion]

gonna have to catch me up, was abr popular wagon that u dismantled? just last page few pages i read seemed like u agreed with consensus

see these quotes where I push back against ABR wagon when he had 3-4 votes and BM was pushing it heavily:

Spoiler:

I think ABR is a distraction and likely town.

I want(ed?) to believe BM is also town and just misguided/confbiased, but the longer this 1v1 with ABR goes on the less confident I am in that. I am kinda thinking Blake is town here actually, especially if BM is scum, but I'm not super convinced about it and need to dig more through all her content.

so a few fundamental flaws with the initial case and why I'm not convinced by it, chunked into a few posts for readability:

1. PT Behaviour on Day 1 and post-lynch:

I noted at outset of Day 2 his behaviour in PT is exactly what I would expect from him as scum (and only Momo's behaviour made me think he was clean).
He was initially not keen to throw suspicion on others in the hood, and just wanted everyone to follow him. He just 'assumed' Momo and I were town, and only suggested Pine was scum when Pine wouldn't toe the line. ABR was non-committal on my Momo scum-read, and didn't engage with it until after the flip. After the flip, he was excited and jubilant, and claimed credit for the lynch.

This doesn't match with what you said yesterday:

I mean, ABR is in a hood with me (and formerly Momo-scum), I can tell you with absolute confidence that the way Momo acted towards ABR in that PT, is NOT the way scum acts towards a partner. Is it conceivably possible ABR is scum? Yes. Is it remotely likely? No. Should we be discussing it today? Obviously not.

You don't mention Dany at all, despite the fact that he has been a big focal point today. Instead, I assume he is your unnamed 2nd favourite lynch for today?

Also note the last bit here ^ shading Blake on not pushing Dany hard enough? Good to remember if/when Dany flips red.

You also doubled down on this when pressed by Blake:

Battle Mage.

Answer the question.

There's no question here. Let me ask you something instead - how do you think I could have confidence in anything you say when you don't read my posts properly and with due respect? when you have not engaged with the trends and key issues in the game? and when you are trying to waste time and obfuscate affairs by throwing shade at people who we are clearly not lynching today?

This conversation is a waste of time. I know you are smarter than this, and so I have to believe there's a chance you are scum protecting Xtoxm, but I'll lynch him first to find out.

[question above referring to why BM is sure momo/ABR are not buddies]

Boy, sure is a shame you didn't elaborate on why ABR/momo could not possibly be partners yesterday!

EVERYONE PLEASE READ THE ABOVE, IT IS IMPORTANT. REST OF THESE POINTS ARE LESS IMPORTANT (but still you should read them)

2. Flavour:

As noted in my setup theory, I think Amanda Young is highly likely in the game, as a survivor. ABR has instead claimed, in the PT, that he is Corbett Denlon - the child of 2 confirmed townies. She was not a prominent feature of the film franchise, so I'm not sure she would be a character in the game, especially given both her parents were. She was also never subject to Jigsaw's traps, so I wouldn't really call her a 'survivor' at all, and she'd be way way down on the list of likely survivor characters compared to Amanda Young. Gut says it MUST be a fakeclaim.

So the argument here (built off the setup spec), is basically that ABR's claim cannot be true because she was not a prominent feature of the film franchise, and that she doesn't belong in the survivor group here. It's already been covered by MT in 1986, I'm not convinced by this and I generally don't support flavor cases to begin with, the mod gives fakeclaims so by definition scum cannot/should not be caught by virtue of flavor claim alone.

3. PT Behaviour Night 1 onwards:

During Night 1, ABR suddenly became frantically active in the PT, having neglected it for a while before that (me and Pine were both stuck in traps at this point of course). He claimed his role and flavour, and also claimed that Xtoxm was a "mailman" (incidentally, not what he flipped), and then gave the story I repeated yesterday in order to make me suspect Xtoxm, which on reflection may not have been true. He was not keen on my suggestion of lynching those not in a PT, which suggests if ABR flips scum, there is some more credence to it. I made it clear that I didn't trust him (by not reciprocating his claim, or sharing info about what happened to me in my trap), and since then he has become very angry and aggressive in the PT.

Unfortunately none of us can verify this, so, not sure why you are using it in your case. It also feels misreppy throughout - "frantically" active, the shade about 'mailman' semantics (effectively, yes, Xtoxm

was

a mailman), 'very' angry/aggressive.

4. Momo wagon:

ABR was not at all eager to get on the Momo wagon, despite my endless cajoling, and the fact he was pretty happy wagonning everybody else.

Not true, especially the "despite my endless cajoling". You didn't formally push the case strongly until after Hectic claimed. If anything, I think ABR's 1320 was the real turning point to momo and it was entirely consistent with his play up to that point.

I also think this would be the strongest point in your case if true and you believed it, so it's odd to me you only give it a one liner. It feels to me you know you can't substantiate this.

5. His approach to the hood:

ABR was very keen to reveal the identities of people in the hood, has put lots of effort into protecting everyone in that hood during the day, and has taken a firm line that 1 scum-flip confirms the others as town. Which is exactly what he would do as scum, knowing that 50% of the hood was scum.

"

ASSUMING

he's scum, then his play fits a scum agenda!". This is backwards and faulty reasoning. It's equally plausible that he plays this way if he is town, believed 1 scum in the hood, and believed you/Pine to be town.

6. No Traps:

If ABR was town, I think he would have been high on the list for scum to trap. He has claimed that he doesn't have any immunity to this. This is not conclusive, but very suspicious given scum have focussed on other veterans like me and Farside.

I agree the trap choices so far have been odd given D1, but I also think town doesn't have enough info about how the traps are decided to make this kind of argument in the way that you're doing. MT and I were both put into traps immediately after D2 ended, that's not enough time for scum to be making decisions based on the outcome of D2.

OK some people may wonder why I am upset?

After Xtoxm got lynched I unleashed a torrent of anger on BM in our PT yesterday within the first couple minutes of night, and then ignored him for the rest of N2.

This level of incompetence on his part is mind-boggling, and I fully blame myself for the part I played in this yesterday, which is why I continue to be upset today.

Here's a question for the class

BM also said something to this effect, so to some degree we know ABR yelled at BM in the hood.

Why would scum!ABR do that? Why is that his plan, instead of simply buddying/killing BM??

I don't think BM/ABR really would have taken all that much heat from the Xtoxm Lynch yesterday - Xtoxm was playing a lurky game and didn't have great associative with Momo. Tons of townies scumread him. So why would scum!ABR flip out after a town!BM pushed a pretty straightforward mislynch?

It just doesn't feel to me like it serves a scum-agenda.

Because he made a deliberate point of emphasising early in the game that there were no VTs, in the hood no less, I think it's odd that he then later claims VT. As in, because he made a point of emphasising no VTs, I assumed he would definitely have some kind of additional power rather than just a neighbour. So I believe he was intending to claim some town PR, and then later on forgot, making it a scumslip.

I think scum!ABR would be smarter than this, don't you?

also here I am arguing with a townread about why he should townread Eddie's slot before Eddie replaced in:

Vecna what makes you say George isn't doing anything? His post 1973 is a clear/concise analysis of the two wagons we've seen so far and why he's voting iDanyBoy. The thoughts line up very well with my own.

BM I may reply to some of your replies later when I have time/energy, but I will tell you I am virtually never going to wind up voting ABR today, so you should spend your energy trying to cajole/convince someone to vote there elsewhere. I am firmly convinced iDanyBoy is the correct lynch today, or could be talked into Gamma if a Gamma wagon becomes more viable. Your points do not become stronger by simply repeating them.

[Eddie Cane]

VOTE: Davesaz

[Morning Tweet]

VOTE: davesaz

[Morning Tweet]

Where are your overall reads at rn?

Solid town, never voting today - MT, Vecna, Eddie Cane, Vault Dweller

Townreads that I can imagine myself being wrong on but strongly not interested in lynching - ABR, Ircher, pisskop

Meh, would compromise on at deadline but feel like a coinflip, clearly there is likely some town here - Drixx, Fire, Molla, Battle Mage

Scummy and most interested in wagoning - Bingle, davesaz

This is like 90% the same as my list so im more than willing to go dave.

Issue i'm having is that it's more "I want to not vote everyone else more than i want to not vote dave" than it is "I want to vote dave"

Spoiler: lynches

WOULDN’T VOTE //
Battle Mage, VaultDweller, ABR, Vecna, Eddie Cain

HARD-PRESSED TO VOTE //
GuiltyLion, Ircher

SORTING THROUGH //
Pisskop, BBMolla, Bingle, Davesaz, Firebringer, Drixx

-==================-

Pisskop - Tonally pisskop i lean light town on.

Firebringer - Will take off the table due to Eddie Cain’s read. I feel hopeless determining his alignment. I felt Blake was a bit scummy

Drixx - I kinda want to unvote for the fancy role claim in 2693 among maybe a couple other small pings

BBMolla - Really nothing i townread about him anymore, but i’ll lean against voting him because of the role, i guess. He joined the Drixx wagon and then proceeded to vote me. Very mysterious

Davesaz - I could see him being scum or town. I don’t really see anything scummy that pops out at me, but also factoring in everybody else, he should have a higher chance of being scum due to PoE

Bingle - Has done nothing to make me feel better about iDany

How good I feel about the slots, best to worst:
pisskop>Firebringer>Drixx>BBMolla>Davesaz>Bingle

[davesaz]

No mechanics

Yet...

[VaultDweller]

Can anyone, preferably the naked votes, tell me why davesaz is scummy?

[Vecna]

I guess I could see it if I look with a squinted eye at dave's iso

[Albert B. Rampage]

Stop voting Dave. Bingle or Firebringer are far better lynches.

[VaultDweller]

What's the vote count like? Who are my options?

[Albert B. Rampage]

What's the vote count like? Who are my options?

bingle (idanny)/FB (blake)/dave

[Albert B. Rampage]

and some people are voting drixx I guess

[VaultDweller]

I'm probably not voting bingle/danny today

I could be persuaded onto fb/blake

Still need to understand why dave is suddenly a wagon

drixx is also a candidate

Will ISO tomorrow, will hopefully not be too busy then

[Vecna]

I mean, the odds are quite high theres only 1 town in our current pools anyway

[Vecna]

Morning Tweet, GuiltyLion, Albert B. Rampage, Blake Belladonna, Battle Mage, VaultDweller, Vecna are all town

Leaving:
BBmolla,
davesaz
Bingle
GeorgeBailey
Drixx
Pisskop
Gamma Emerald

I cant even remember which the cop inno's are at this point

But it should mean the odds of hitting scum in what remains oughta be 75% easily