Mini Normal 2138 | Fungi Mafia | Game Over!

[Churros]

I feel as long as we lynch Quick/Fire in the next days, the unique way we lose is if

[Nero, Saudade] or [Norwe, Popop] are the team, and I feel those are the most unlikely pairings atm.

I can see [Nero, Saudade] more than I can see [Norwe,Popop] right now, but I feel even if it's the case, at least one of Quick/Firebringer is probably scum?

Those posts from quick sounds...very off.

"I'm not considering PR claims, going by play" - What...

[Churros]

I feel Quick is trying to play up a "tough guy/don't care about getting lynched" act.

Constantly implying "yeah I'm fine with my lynch", "lynch me if you've a problem", etc.

I feel he's trying to town tell by acting tough but it simply seems overdone to me.

[Quick]

these 2 lynches have been super disheartening. none of the 3 wagons day 1 were on scum. im p much completely lost. i dont even have a solid townread to sheep.

@Nero, why does Scum ever say this here? I'll listen if you have a reason. But you don't.

[Quick]

I feel Quick is trying to play up a "tough guy/don't care about getting lynched" act.

Constantly implying "yeah I'm fine with my lynch", "lynch me if you've a problem", etc.

I feel he's trying to town tell by acting tough but it simply seems overdone to me.

Except that is me every game.

[Quick]

i think i have more reason to kill luna than nero tbh

Or it's just FB, Norwegian, Nero.

[Quick]

More or less caught up. Just skimmed when I got to where I replaced in.

Reads incoming.

[Quick]

Churros

Alch
Zan

popo

FB
Nero

Norwegian

Saudade

More or less where I am calculating for Town utility. The only claim I am accounting for is Churros'. The rest are simply based on Reads.

[Quick]

I don't think FB's claim is that Scummy, actually. it just shows FB is not SvS with Alchemist.

[Saudade]

why cant someone like flavor leaf or krazy replace into my games instead of this

[Quick]

why cant someone like flavor leaf or krazy replace into my games instead of this

I know, life isn't fair.

[Zantetsu]

[Nero, Saudade] or [Norwe, Popop] are the team, and I feel those are the most unlikely pairings atm.

I still like a { popop, norwee } pairing, but we can put that on the back burner for now.

Regarding popop's wall: I will dissect it here but dissecting a wall turns into a wall so I will spoiler it to make it easier to navigate the thread.

Spoiler: about popop's wall

considering the elements night kill, and the subsequent flip of peter. it seems like the night 1 NK can be explained as scum loving the way town was going, all 3 of the major wagons day 1 were on town.
my biggest takeaway of the reread was firebringer has basically been obv scum all game?

Explanation of Elements NK and scum intentions going into D2 have already been said elsewhere and are the most obvious explanations. "all 3 of the major wagons day 1 were on town" is begging the question because it assumes popop is town so that statement is nothing other than popop saying "I am town" in a different way.

my biggest takeaway of the reread was firebringer has basically been obv scum all game?

No one is obv scum this game, or really any game, if someone was obv scum we wouldn't even be talking.

Bruh. Why are you paranoid of Luna.

I reread her defense of me and I was like "wait does she really townread me...wait shouldn't she be more paranoid of me?"

looking back, knowing now Luna's alingment. this post just screams scum firebringer. why would he think luna should be more paranoid of him? scum pov. also his incredulity as luna townreading him.

I think this is a fairly solid point against FB, I think mostly it was just tonally weird of FB to speak of Luna that way, but its just the certainty that popop is trying to project here with "just screams scum firebringer" contrasting with the hedging way he introduced the topic that feels off to me.

i think i have more reason to kill luna than nero tbh

i have a pr speculation chart want me to share with the class?

more super obvscum posts above. a lot of his posts read as straight up scum taunting town. super obv scum slot on reread i think. maybe im just colored by his claim and recent play day 3, that could def be a part of it, but he came across as scum to me on reread.

This point against fb is much weaker, because those the two statements he references are kinda meh, but more interesting to me is how his confidence in the scumminess of those statements is the same as in the others. The lack of nuance.

firebringer/norwe

Yo FB, what do you think of the people who have legit scumread you so far.

u mean zantetsu? Ummmm I don't know.

probably town? I can buy his reasoning on the slip thing but I could see a world where he saw something he could exploit as scum. Seems pretty natural to be fake imo so I lean way more on town.

I don't think norweigan is scumreading me rn seriously. At least that's not my impression.

the last sentence here makes complete sense if they are buddies

This is much too much to read into FB's statement. A player of either alignment can easily say "I don't think player xxx is scumreading me rn seriousy. At least that's not my impression." By the way FB was responding to Luna asking him what he thought of people who have a legit scumread on him. I was the only one to actually make a case, so he mostly talked about me. Norwee just sheeped me on his wagon and didn't add anything. So I don't think it's anything other than factual to say what FB said there about Norwee.

HOWEVER

, I am glad that popop reminded me of the quote here because I think it more just looks like "FB is scum" than anything else. The way he sort of waffled here, especially when he said "I could see a world where he saw something he could exploit as scum", embedded in a paragraph where he's trying to get to a town read on me.

I think this is like the

BEST

evidence for scum FB I personally have read in popop's post. FB completely hedged here on his read of me, he even goes on to 'lean way more on town' because my post 'seems pretty natural' but I know for a fact that I was intentionally trying to overstate a case just for 'reactions' and to help get the early game going. There was little 'natural' about it, it's an odd way to characterize my post, and I think it comes from scum knowing I was town and conflicted about how to make his analysis of my post "believable" and yet still end up town reading me.

Firebringer reads as very pockety towards Luna tbh. I'm not sure i dig the whole "voting whoever you vote, Town!luna's reads are the BEST!" thing he's got going on.

VOTE: Firebringer
Who wants to go to a real wagon.

next his scum buddy zantetsu (THATS RIGHT I SAID IT) asks him to explain himself (COACHING?????)

I personally have never seen this mysterious thing called coaching. People talk about it in game from time to time, but I've never seen it personally.

Also scum have daytalk so why would in-game coaching be needed?

i imagine it went something like this in scum daytalk thread:

Zantetsu: peter hop on the popo wagon, ill ask you to explain your vote while I stay off the wagon for town points. you can answer me with these points; etc.

This is probably a town post

Scummy post. Firebringer took a look at this and thought: "Oh snap, i gotta townread this!" but it's not really a towntell from Popopo, it's what scum thinks is a towntell.

this early game case on firebringer from norwe is interesting for associations. norwe didn't seem to bothered about it. norwe kept his vote parked on firebringer until eventually hopping on the jake wagon. the very next day, norwe had completely forgotten about firebringer, and instead was interested in one thing, lining up mislynches.

OK this actually is quite good, I have to admit. Finding this association between Norwee and FB is good. If anyone will recall I was immediately suspicious D2 of players trying to go back to the same wagons that we had D1 (unfortunately I eventually caved and went to the Peter wagon). I could speculate that Norwee went straight to the popop wagon for bussing purposes, believing that with so much day left in D2 he would have time to switch elsewhere, but that's pure speculation. Anyway, the above I will admit is good from popop.

We should kill the mouse.
One of Jake/Peter Pan most likely lead to a counterwagon by scum yesterday.

VOTE: Popopopopopopo

We should kill the mouse.
One of Jake/Peter Pan most likely lead to a counterwagon by scum yesterday.

Explain this please. Are you saying that a scum most likely lead a counterwagon off of popop onto Peter Pan and then Jake?

No i mistyped a bit. What i was trying to say is that i believe one of Popopopopo or Peter Pan was derailed by means of counterwagon. If Peter Pan it was most likely Jake, if Popopo it was most likely Peter Pan.
But Peter Pan wagon feels less strong to me than the initial Popopo wagon which i had much more faith in.

THE POSTS ABOVE WERE ALL MADE IMMEDIATELY AS DAY 2 STARTED. THIS SCUM TRYING TO LINE UP MULTIPLE DAYS OF MISLYNCHES. NORWE WOULD HAVE HAD US GO PETERPAN->POPOPOPO. THIS IS THE SCUM MISLYNCH PLAN, LAID OUT FOR YOU AT THE START OF DAY 2.

I think the above is a bit over stated. It begs the question. The only way the above is evidence that Norwee is scum is if we already assume Norwee is scum, because the evidence relies on him knowing that Peter was town. If Norwee is town, then I think his concern over a D1 wagon that was counterwagoned to a mislynch could have been a wagon on scum that was manipulated away from. However - did Norwee even explore this in a convincing manner?
I can't recall, I will have to go back and re-read.

here is norwe on the n1 kill. shutting down discussion. framing attempt? tf does that mean.

Also consider Elements voted Peter Pan. If Ele was a scum kill it could be a framing attempt maybe? But Elements had a really weak ISO so maybe there’s not much to say about it.

I read "framing attempt" at meaning that maybe scum killed Elements to make Peter look bad, like the scum team would have wanted to kill Elements because he had voted scum!Peter. So that's the answer to your "tf does that mean".

However, I agree that the suggestion that the scum team would kill Elements because he had a vote on Peter, and then extrapolating from that that it might be a framing attempt of Peter, is, and I hate to have to say it, SUPER ULTRA MEGA REACHY. I hate to have to say it because I hate the overused term 'reachy'. But if that term ever had meaning, it would be applied here.

That being said, town makes reachy arguments as often as scum so, who cares about the whole thing.

Norwee, what do you think of Luna? I noticed that in the game queue you specifically wanted to play with her so I expected you guys have some history. I am town reading you solely on the strength with which we seem to be mind melded here and I want to know what you, who have more experience with Luna than I do (I have zero) think about her play here.

p.s. Sorry Norwee but I can't help being paranoid about you though. The way you are echoing my thoughts is almost too good to be true.

he was buddying you zan.

Norwee sheeped me pretty obviously early in the game. I did feel a little paranoid about that. I asked him about it much later in the game and he said it was because he town read me because I was playing so different from our previous game (where I was scum). In my mind I couldn't argue with this because I feel like it was true also. But I did wonder how he concluded that so very early in the game when he started sheeping me. I started a post to that effect but I didn't post it because it was before I was townfirmed and I felt like it would sound like me wanting to confirm that my play this game is very different from my last game, which I was worried would just introduce noise of people accusing me of trying to pander to my meta. Anyway, my point being -- I also felt pretty dubious about how early Norwee was willing to sheep me.

zan remember this

I just don't think NorwegianBoy and Churros can both be town this game.

Hmm, nothing interesting happening

[Jake, Peter, Norwe]

There's probably at least one wolf in the above.

Jake, you should claim.

this is a good post, and two of the the three have flipped green

[Jake, Peter, Proffi, Norwe]

Now that looks better and I have near certainty there's at least one wolf in the above

ahhh! i really think profii is just a complete nothing slot and such great late game mislynch bait at this point. the replacement will reveal itself over time, im happy to revisit once quick has caught up and given us some thoughts tho.

Thank you for the reminders. Yeah I have felt all game like Norwee's attitude seems a little resigned, and I spent a lot of mental effort early trying to decide if either or both of Churros and Norwegian were scum because of it.

Anyway, if our earlier reads were somehow more accurate then yeah, all roads are leading to Norwee.

I'm going to skip almost all of the rest of popop's post because I think the rest was mostly not any good and completely disregardable, except for:

Firebringer claiming that he voted popop because his push on Saudade wasn't going anywhere. Then after unvoting popop and in the face of heated up game play for today he goes back to ... a push on Saudade that isn't going anywhere.

Firebringer has dropped back into my scum reads.

saudade/fire associative tells is real. zan is super close here.

Forget the Saudade/Fire associative, I don't think it's there.

But I do still have to ask, WTF was FB doing? This is like a mini snapshot of how he hasn't really done anything that I could call clearly town motivated all game.

[Zantetsu]

To summarize: I think popop found a lot of useful stuff, but the vast majority of it that was worthwhile in my opinion just pointed individually to Norwee scum and FB scum. I didn't feel like the cases for associations were very convincing, except in one case of some good Norwee/FB stuff, and I also didn't really see anything convincing about Saudade individually or as an association.

[Zantetsu]

popop, am I going to look like a complete fool when I read your notes PT post-game?

[Zantetsu]

explain in under 3 sentences why "delaying" my claim is scummy?

iirc i havent actually claimed late but claimed exactly in the order i was supposed too, which was after profii

To be completely fair Churros forgot to put you in the list and you put yourself last. You've cultivated a meta where you are expected to not care though so good job on making that impossible to read.

[Zantetsu]

i hesitate to engage firebringer anymore. it will just bring WIFOM.

are you scared he'll towntell?
are you THAT certain of your reads?
did you just scumslip

Overreaction.

Only mafia are certain in their reads to such a degree

popop already projected supreme confidence in his wall. Why are you noticing his confidence just now?

{ Saudade, FB } starting to look like a thing.

[Saudade]

iirc someone told me to claim after profii

[Saudade]

i hesitate to engage firebringer anymore. it will just bring WIFOM.

are you scared he'll towntell?
are you THAT certain of your reads?
did you just scumslip

Overreaction.

Only mafia are certain in their reads to such a degree

popop already projected supreme confidence in his wall. Why are you noticing his confidence just now?

{ Saudade, FB } starting to look like a thing.

oh my god

[Saudade]

I regret opening this a 2nd time today

[Saudade]

every time I start writing a reply to you zants i get angry

[Saudade]

then I remember that last game you annoyed your mafia partner so fucking much he decided to buss you without telling you at the beginning of d2

[NorwegianboyEE]

Wow.

[Zantetsu]

Scum!FB clears Zan, Alch, Nero, and debatably Norwegian.

BTW I kindly ask again that no one hammer until we've had lots more discussion today. But I think it's VERY useful for people to discuss who'd they be willing to lynch today, and they'd better expect to be held to it if/when the time comes.

Scum!Fire can be teamed with Saudade, popo, Norwegian and to a lesser extent, Nero.

I would rather just lynch Norwegian.

You just contradicted yourself on FB/Norwee associations. Admittedly you did say "debatably" earlier so maybe you already finished the debate?

[Saudade]

Anyways, yeah I hardclaim scum with Firebringer

sup?

[Zantetsu]

Anyway I think I might actually understand what Quick is trying to do. Scary.

[Saudade]

VOTE: firebringer
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