Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Nauci]

So far: two reads and one "I can't read his alignment."

Thank you for your cooperation.

Are you confident that you will be able to read his alignment by LyLo?

No, but I'm confident I don't want him strung up this day

[Nauci]

The vast majority of times that a wagon has stalled out this hard on someone but it wasn't because they mass townposted, I feel like the person turned out to be scum, so on top of my original reasons and a few suspicious posts he's made since my vote, I still most suspect votato

[Gammagooey]

@Blair - If I had to say Quick was either town or scum I'd bet on town but I have zero confidence in my ability to read a player like Quick early on. He seems a lot like Titus in that he throws out a lot of statements with baked-in assumptions that only he's aware of, and then expects everyone else to follow along without ever explaining the base of the pyramid of logic he's made for why he's scumreading people. I do think that the amount of full frontal confidence in what he's saying about things like his response to Atarashi being 'scum distance early game you have no chance of winning' would be a little unusual for scum but the vast majority of his posts reflect more on his personality than his alignment.
Usually for Titus at least it's a lot easier to tell her alignment by looking back after a couple of flips and trying to figure out if her vast amount of posting seemed to ultimately have a goal of directing away from scum or towards town and going from there and with Quick's amount of posting I think that has a pretty good shot of working with him too.

I'm a couple pages behind so I'll be around for a bit catching up when I'm done with dinner in a few minutes.

[Quick]

Hot take: If I am Scum, I just lose. But I have tools at my disposal now that I have never used on MS. I have actually developed a plethora of different methods for analyzing players and they are public, but I found something that works for me and until it fails, it, in theory, destroys Scum by LyLo.

FWIW, this is more theorycraft than anything (I never really used it much), but it might have some utility at some point.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... y-Quick%29

GLHF

[Gammagooey]

VOTE: ready2rock

I can actually buy the votecount shenanigans as being a genuine mistake given that I don't really see the point of doing it as scum, but him saying he thinks that votato looked bad for misinterpreting something while voting VPB (for voting people over minor things if I remember correctly) while VPB is voting votato for the exact reason he mentioned feels pretty gross.
I usually give townpoints in my head to people town or scumreading people for the same reasons I am if they post about it before I get to it, and him mentioning votato feeling bad for that and then voting VPB feels like an excuse for a vote instead of an honest reason to think VPB is scum.

@ready - What makes you think Blair vs Quick is TvT? I know Puppy mentioned a reason for it earlier but do you agree with what he said or do you have your own for it?

It's partially out of my reads of them being town before they started their back and forth, then when they started their discussion with each other the way they were pushing each other felt genuine on both ends

why were you reading them both as TvT beforehand then?

[Gammagooey]

Hot take: If I am Scum, I just lose.

Why do you think that? I just ran did a topic search on your profile and you have won a game as scum on this site before.

[Gammagooey]

Hot take: If I am Scum, I just lose.

Why do you think that? I just ran

did

a topic search on your profile and you have won a game as scum on this site before.

^fixed the above - you probably get what I meant but just in case the dumb double wording was confusing

[Blair]

He's implying he has a foolproof scumhunting script that he follows now regardless of alignment, so he's going to follow it and if he's scum he'll just end up outing all his partners and then himself!

And since he's just following his System™ there's nothing alignment indicative about any of his posts! Brilliant!

(Otherwise what was the point of sharing that in this context?)

[Quick]

Hot take: If I am Scum, I just lose.

Why do you think that? I just ran did a topic search on your profile and you have won a game as scum on this site before.

Can't talk about it too much, but basically, and this is a bit of an ego stretch, I think due to the methods I have developed I might actually catch Scum too quickly as Town.

*shrug*

I'm totally willing to tank my Scum game for a destroying accurate Town Game.

I am not really trying to brag here, but I've discovered my semantic understanding of words is a lot better than most people so I can actually pick up little tiny things about their motivation that they telegraph to you by how they say things. Uhhhhhhhhhh, my verbal IQ is really quite high and I have a ridiculous learning curve given enough time. Before, I still had those capabilities, but my emotions were an absolute trainwreck and I tended to WAY overreact to things and take them personally which made me make a LOT of mistakes. I am WAY more balanced emotionally now and way more confident due to spending about 2 years in DBT therapy and working a LOT on mindfulness. I have had people tell me on numerous occasions, "Quick, no one knows what your potential is." Also, because my verbal IQ is so high people actually have a hard time following what it is that I am saying and it's like I am speaking a different language because of it, Iunno. I have found a pattern that people mostly just take what they read based on cultural norms without actually thinking about what it is that people are actually saying. I am VERY specific with my words and have had to learn how to get better at explaining myself because what makes logical sense to me sounds like nonsense to other people (as per this thread shows). I have had to do things like spell things in all caps just so people can get the emphasis in what I am saying. I actually ended up getting a ton of neuropsychological tests done because people never understood what I was saying. I thought my verbal IQ was actually really low because people didn't understand what I was saying, but it's actually the opposite. And just to be clear, so it doesn't look like I am bragging and to even things out a lot, my working memory and processing speed are VERY low because I care WAY too much about saying things perfectly (FYI, I do NOT expect people to understand this at ALL). In any case, believe this or not. I am just explaining things that I think are relevant. Also, I tend to scrutinize things to an unhealthy level, which is a blessing and a curse at the same time. It makes me understand things very very well but OTOH I am so perfectionistic that it actually makes me not want to read because I just think intuitively that I will be able to understand things just fine without much effort.

BTW, I am not like claiming to be the smartest person in this game or anything. I know the kinds of people who generally like this kind of stuff have a higher than average IQ. In fact, I would put money on the fact that everyone in this game has an IQ above 100 (the average).

It's also that I have a sever mental illness and so sometimes I look into things that are not there, which, I am sure you can imagine can make other people think I am from outer space. Like I said, therapy helped a lot. Mindfulness is brilliant and everyone should learn about it.

Okay, that's my rant. Just trying to get you all to understand where I am coming from. I think it's relevant as per prior discussions about this ITT and how most people seem to be thinking I am just not "sense making" <joke. So All I ask is that if you don't understand what I am saying you can either ask me to clarify (I generally do well when people ask me questions, but they never do) or just think about the implications and word choice I have used. BTW, I am the OPPOSITE of Blair in that I pretty much always clarify what I am saying with "probably" or "likely"... you get the drift. I hate being wrong and that was a huge problem considering I also hated people misunderstanding me and I actually took that stuff really personally at one point in my life because it made me feel like there was something wrong with me.

/rant

P-Edit: It seems Blair has answer my question for me, Disregard. /s

[ready2rock]

@ready2rock: in 403 you mention votato and imply he’s scummy more than he’s town, but then do backtrack that a little. Any thoughts on him now? Also, why place the vote on VP Baltar vs votato when voting in 409 after previously believing votato scum and not even expressing an opinion on VP Baltar previously or even when you placed your vote?

I think if you read back my post you'll see that my read on him was pretty much neutral. I'd basically said that I wasn't a big on his style out the gate, but I'm not sure that scum would be so abrasive this early (e.g. his "fuck you" post). I also think his posts have gotten a bit better as the game has progressed, including since I've made that post, though still hit and miss on how strong his reasoning is.

So yeah, some good, some bad, overall neutral

My overall point about VP is that I think he's mostly the one who I think has been going for the low hanging fruit in the way that people are accusing votato of doing

@Quick Any more specific reasoning to share behind your townread on VP?

[Nauci]

Hey Puppy & Blair, how do you feel about VP B's contributions today? Primarily 517.

[Nauci]

I tended to WAY overreact to things and take them personally which made me make a LOT of mistakes.

Can confirm that (memory is hazy after 2 years) I've seen Quick on at least 1 if not 2 occasions get WILDLY offended at a post some player made that was actively and clearly directed at a different player altogether, and then tunneled that person for like the next 10-50 pages over it while other players repeatedly tried to explain the original misinterpretation, which made him scum read them too afterwards. So it's nice that THAT hasn't happened here. Yet. Yay!

[NoPowerOverMe]

That's why you need to look at a players intentions as much as the words themselves.

[Blair]

Hey Puppy & Blair, how do you feel about VP B's contributions today? Primarily 517.

Overall, I liked most of it. He seemed to be putting in genuine effort to address all the different dynamics at play in the thread at the time.

I wasn't a fan of him stirring the WIFOM pot on his own push on Votato, that was the only part of that post where my alarm bells twitched.

[mavsfan41]

My thoughts on Quick v Blair: Quick’s random af and I can get a solid read one way or the other. I think for day 1, getting a solid read on Quick isn’t a priority for me. Wildcard but if I had to guess, he’s too erratic and too present and the center of attention too much for me to think he’s scum. Blair’s original vote on Quick I think was more “petty” for lack of a better reason (yes, sure he lied about being mysterious but I read that as Quick being a troll vs being scum) and has since tunneled the ever living fuck outta that and has blown up the thread. Perhaps added as many as 5 extra pages (if not more) of mostly useless content and I doubt it’s over. If anything, I think Blair is worse off for it. Quick I doubt was ever going to be helpful day 1. But has dragged Blair to prioritize the Quick tunnel over anything. But I see it as mostly bickering leaning TvT that won’t end cause they both want the last word. That’s why I’m not too surprised players have to be asked multiple times in order to provide their opinions on this interaction.

[Quick]

Still like my vote!

I did state a case on NPOM but not one person commented on it. Not really sure why that is.

[Blair]

Still like my vote!

I did state a case on NPOM but not one person commented on it. Not really sure why that is.

OK, I give up, I can't find it. Please link your NPOM case?

All I found was this:

This is more or less my reads at this point.

Atarashi
mav, Gamma, Puppy
Dany, VP, Blair
votato
NPOM
R2R

But I would like to see what R2R brings to the table.

So this is my vote after analysis (seperate from what I have said ITT).

VOTE: NPOM

Unless your NPOM case came before your NPOM vote. I didn't go back much farther than that.

[Nauci]

Plus, it means either his SR on Blair dissopated (with no progression) and that he is ignoring the VP wagon while even saying the people voting there are likely Town -1. At what point does NPOM make the "logical" choice just vote VP here? Does he TR VP or is the Town -1 mean there is no possibility of Bus or what? Cuz I am pretty sure NPOM knows Scum would for sure sit on a Scum early game if they don't intend to be active.

Quick, can you expand on this?

I didn't understand it at the time and rereading the context around it... I still don't. I'm not 100% sure what NPOM was saying, and I'm not even 20% sure what you're saying about what he said... Can you explain what you think he was saying, and then what inferences you drew from that?

Also, how much of your NPOM case is based on the fact that he said he might and then chose to not add a profile pic?

[Blair]

Was that the case?

Yeah, that is incoherent, that's why no one commented on it. Please replace the "-1's" with your own thoughts.

[NoPowerOverMe]

A) Lurking is scummy.

B) R2R was heavy lurking.

C) R2R has meta of lurking as scum and crying foul when caught.

D) Lurking and then hyperposting when wagoned is scummy.

E) R2R has not been actively scumhunting since coming out of lurktirement.

F) When my reasoning was questioned, he said something like "I'm done entertaining this line of thought." which sounds like he knows he's going to get lynched and doesn't want to implicate his scumbuddies.

[Blair]

Plus, it means either his SR on Blair dissopated (with no progression) and that he is ignoring the VP wagon while even saying the people voting there are likely Town -1. At what point does NPOM make the "logical" choice just vote VP here? Does he TR VP or is the Town -1 mean there is no possibility of Bus or what? Cuz I am pretty sure NPOM knows Scum would for sure sit on a Scum early game if they don't intend to be active.

The sentence structure is botched as well, which would normally feel like a petty objection, but here it is actually obstructing understanding.

I'm trying really hard to put my "Nice Blair" hat on here and help you articulate this, I'm just not sure where to begin. That "either," for instance, in the first sentence: Is that vestigial? (It feels like a relic of an earlier, edited version of the sentence)

[NoPowerOverMe]

I gave into peer pressure.

[Blair]

A) Lurking is scummy.

B) R2R was heavy lurking.

C) R2R has meta of lurking as scum and crying foul when caught.

D) Lurking and then hyperposting when wagoned is scummy.

E) R2R has not been actively scumhunting since coming out of lurktirement.

F) When my reasoning was questioned, he said something like "I'm done entertaining this line of thought." which sounds like he knows he's going to get lynched and doesn't want to implicate his scumbuddies.

A) Not really, at least not by itself.

B) I could be pedantic here and ask you to define "heavy" lurking when we're, what, two real life days into this game? But sure, he was lurking, it can be heavy if you want.

C) You have not demonstrated that he *only* lurks as scum, so this isn't a tell.

D) This one I would agree with to an extent, if only because it implies they were probably reading along the whole time while refraining from posting. I privately call this the "Bloody Mary" pattern. :p

E) I agree.

F) That's reading way too much into it, I suspect.

--

If I were to boil your case down to only the parts I would agree with, it would become:

He wasn't posting at all until we started talking about him, the he conveniently appeared to argue about it incessantly, but that's all he's doing - I don't see much scumhunting.

Is that fair?

[NoPowerOverMe]

A) Lurking is scummy.

B) R2R was heavy lurking.

C) R2R has meta of lurking as scum and crying foul when caught.

D) Lurking and then hyperposting when wagoned is scummy.

E) R2R has not been actively scumhunting since coming out of lurktirement.

F) When my reasoning was questioned, he said something like "I'm done entertaining this line of thought." which sounds like he knows he's going to get lynched and doesn't want to implicate his scumbuddies.

A) Not really, at least not by itself.

B) I could be pedantic here and ask you to define "heavy" lurking when we're, what, two real life days into this game? But sure, he was lurking, it can be heavy if you want.

C) You have not demonstrated that he *only* lurks as scum, so this isn't a tell.

D) This one I would agree with to an extent, if only because it implies they were probably reading along the whole time while refraining from posting. I privately call this the "Bloody Mary" pattern. :p

E) I agree.

F) That's reading way too much into it, I suspect.

--

If I were to boil your case down to only the parts I would agree with, it would become:

He wasn't posting at all until we started talking about him, the he conveniently appeared to argue about it incessantly, but that's all he's doing - I don't see much scumhunting.

Is that fair?

That's fair.

[Quick]

This is what he said first:

I think some three of the most non active people voting baltar shows that he is town

Based on this VC:

Vote Count 1.5

votato

(4): VP Baltar, CantLynchAPuppy, iDanyboy, Nauci

VP Baltar

(3): mavsfan41, votato, ready2rock

NoPowerOverMe

(2): Atarashi Hajimari, Quick

Nauci

(1): Gammagooey

Quick

(1): Blair

ready2rock

(1): NoPowerOverMe

Not Voting

(1): Peter Pan

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-05-25 00:50:00)

But he was previously voting for Blair here:

Vote Count 1.4

votato

(5): VP Baltar, CantLynchAPuppy, iDanyboy, Blair, Nauci

Blair

(2): NoPowerOverMe, Quick

Atarashi Hajimari

(1): votato

NoPowerOverMe

(1): Atarashi Hajimari

Nauci

(1): Gammagooey

Quick

(1): mavsfan41

Not Voting

(2): ready2rock, Peter Pan

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-05-25 00:50:00)

And my vote on him doesn't come until here:

VOTE: NPOM

This is Scummy as shit. His reads make no sense.

THEN he says:

I think some three of the most non active people voting baltar shows that he is town

The only votes that had changed at that point were that Blair voted for me in 344, donkey votes VP in 398, and R2R votes for VP in 409.

After those votes, he votes for R2R here:

VOTE: ready2rock

Note:

This post was edited to facilitate automated vote counting; the unedited original is quoted below this comment. - Um

vote r2r

At the time, and there is nothing to contradict this, this was his reads:

NoPowerOverMe
CantLynchAPuppy
Quick
Nauci

VP Baltar
votato

Atarashi
Blair

not enough content: iDannyboy, Gammagooey, ready2rock, mavsfan, PeterPan

Because he literally didn't even infer any reads at all from his reads list to his vote:

VOTE: ready2rock

Note:

This post was edited to facilitate automated vote counting; the unedited original is quoted below this comment. - Um

vote r2r

Which is NAKED BTW,, but he explains his reason here:

I think some three of the most non active people voting baltar shows that he is town

Are you implying that the quiet people are all scum together, or is there some other logic to your assessment?

I'm saying there is more likely scum on the wagon than not.

The problem is that it makes no sense why he would TR Blair based on Blair voting for me, because he TRs me.

Like I said, He shows absolutely ZERO progression in their read on Blair. I WAS still voting for Blair at the time he voted R2R. So the only reason I can actually see for NPOM TRing Blair is because of their OMGUS on me. Which is why my case on Blair is actually important at this point in the game. Because I made the case that Blair NEVER ACTUALLY BELIEVED that I was lying. What's more is that Blair can understand me just fine demonstrated here:

He's implying he has a foolproof scumhunting script that he follows now regardless of alignment, so he's going to follow it and if he's scum he'll just end up outing all his partners and then himself!

And since he's just following his System™ there's nothing alignment indicative about any of his posts! Brilliant!

(Otherwise what was the point of sharing that in this context?)

IF that's the case, then NPOM me KNOWS Blair is Town. But again, the huge flaming giant dumpster fire here is that HE HAD NO PROGRESSION ON BLAIR.