Mini Normal 2132 [Game Over]

[bob3141]

Spoiler: midway saying stuff

yo what up
morning sorta controls my vote too ngl

Yeah, I admit that I haven’t really tried to actively scumhunt. I’m just more focused with looking towny, so I don’t get voted. I said that adora is possibly scum too

both of your isos seem fine

they don't jump out as scummy

I find it really hard to believe scum talks like this

I had a townlean on Lucky going into today, so it's tricky. But I think it's more likely that my read is wrong, I have a tendency to townread too much and I don't want to throw by being unwilling to adjust my reads. I have a tendency to get 1 or 2 wrong, and in this scenario, I do not think i have Wake/clidd wrong

I think the way Lucky has reacted to pressure lately hasnt been explicitly towny. Rather than focus on why midway is scum, he's more focused on why he's mechanically town. Which several players arent interested in, either

I was going to make a post last night abt Wake/clidd being town and Bob/Adorbs not being SvS but i didn't get to it. So if anyone has any qualms about either of those i can do the analysis on that if you want but we're running out of time

Does he look invested.

See how he says his focus is on being town read. So all he is going to do is try and not look like scum. While at the same time not investing time in game thats liekly doomed.

What makes you think he even looked at adora and my iso. He makes they look fine next to no time after sayign he will look at them. After he said he hasnt read much of teh game.

What does that remind you of. No other than chemist

[midwaybear]

Does he look invested.

bruh she never said I did

[Morning Tweet]

Spoiler: midway saying stuff

yo what up
morning sorta controls my vote too ngl

Yeah, I admit that I haven’t really tried to actively scumhunt. I’m just more focused with looking towny, so I don’t get voted. I said that adora is possibly scum too

both of your isos seem fine

they don't jump out as scummy

I find it really hard to believe scum talks like this

I had a townlean on Lucky going into today, so it's tricky. But I think it's more likely that my read is wrong, I have a tendency to townread too much and I don't want to throw by being unwilling to adjust my reads. I have a tendency to get 1 or 2 wrong, and in this scenario, I do not think i have Wake/clidd wrong

I think the way Lucky has reacted to pressure lately hasnt been explicitly towny. Rather than focus on why midway is scum, he's more focused on why he's mechanically town. Which several players arent interested in, either

I was going to make a post last night abt Wake/clidd being town and Bob/Adorbs not being SvS but i didn't get to it. So if anyone has any qualms about either of those i can do the analysis on that if you want but we're running out of time

Does he look invested.

See how he says his focus is on being town read. So all he is going to do is try and not look like scum. While at the same time not investing time in game thats liekly doomed.

What makes you think he even looked at adora and my iso. He makes they look fine next to no time after sayign he will look at them. After he said he hasnt read much of teh game.

What does that remind you of. No other than chemist

My argument is not that midway seems invested. Cause he doesn't. At all. You're attacking an argument that isn't mine

My gut says that scum!midway wouldn't take the "Yeah i dont really know what's going on but these two are confirmed town and uhuh im just trying to look towny so VOTE". I find it kind of hard to believe. Additionally, mislynching town!midway in a Lucky!scum scenario gives scum a shot at winning. I'm not convinced that you are Lucky's partner, but I'd pick you.

If I'm wrong and we mislynch town!midway -> lynch scum!lucky -> mislynch town!bob, then we just lost the game for no reason. It makes more sense to lynch Lucky first, because it gives me more info so that we won't make that mistake

[Adorable]

I have been narrowing down the scum team suspects looking at player interactions.

bob/Lucky - bob votes dave on day 1 for gut feeling and never went back to his suspicion on dave. Was this some distancing?
bob/profii - No real serious 1vs1 interactions from them.
bob/MT - No real serious 1vs1 interactions from them.
profii/Lucky - profii voted dave on day 2 saying he has a theory which he hasn't fully fleshed out but this was never explained and then later he switches his vote to Aaron. Still not sure if that makes them likely not scum buddies.
profii/MT - No real serious 1vs1 interactions from them.

On day 1 Wake called out tictac saying that was tictac's scum meta and voted them being the fourth voter on the early wagon and I don't think scum would say this about their scum buddy like that. SirCakez being a town Neighborizer Enabler still has me wondering about MT's role since I have seen a couple of Neighbozer scums before and with an Enabler removing the pr ability normally one of them is town and the other is scum. From what I have seen before, Enabler was always scum and the pr that loses its ability was town. Aloratom was a counter wagon to Chemist on day 1 which makes me think he is town.

I'm checking the player interactions again and this leads me to believe there really is scum in the pr since the bob vs Midway does not look like svs.

[bob3141]

I have been narrowing down the scum team suspects looking at player interactions.

bob/Lucky - bob votes dave on day 1 for gut feeling and never went back to his suspicion on dave. Was this some distancing?
bob/profii - No real serious 1vs1 interactions from them.
bob/MT - No real serious 1vs1 interactions from them.
profii/Lucky - profii voted dave on day 2 saying he has a theory which he hasn't fully fleshed out but this was never explained and then later he switches his vote to Aaron. Still not sure if that makes them likely not scum buddies.
profii/MT - No real serious 1vs1 interactions from them.

On day 1 Wake called out tictac saying that was tictac's scum meta and voted them being the fourth voter on the early wagon and I don't think scum would say this about their scum buddy like that. SirCakez being a town Neighborizer Enabler still has me wondering about MT's role since I have seen a couple of Neighbozer scums before and with an Enabler removing the pr ability normally one of them is town and the other is scum. From what I have seen before, Enabler was always scum and the pr that loses its ability was town. Aloratom was a counter wagon to Chemist on day 1 which makes me think he is town.

I'm checking the player interactions again and this leads me to believe there really is scum in the pr since the bob vs Midway does not look like svs.

What is your read on me and what is your read on midway.

If you read midway then explain your read. Also what was your read on proffii


also you say its not svs. But do you think its tvt or tvs

[Adorable]

I said on #1120 why I was leaning town on profii. profii voted Chemist breaking the tie on the Chemist/Aloratom wagon and why would scum profii make a vote like that on his scum buddy when he could have voted someone else trying to push for a mislynch? I have to agree with what midway is saying because Lucky is saying from his pov the scum team bob/midway/Adorable but from my pov this makes no sense because of the 1vs1 exchange.

This is what MT said

Bob D1 >> Counter-wagon on dave (?)
Bob D2 >> Won't vote Gamma, willing to vote Creature
Bob D3 >> Suddenly wants Gamma now
Bob D4 >> Lucky is mech town, vote midway

Dave D1 >> Aloratom wagon
Dave D2 >> Creature wagon
Lucky D3 >> Gamma wagon
Lucky D4 >> Lucky is mech town, vote midway

I have convinced myself to vote Lucky. I think it's most likely Lucky/bob, with some variance in the partner, but likely bob.

Looking at MT's analysis now this really starts to make me think all the scum were off the Chemist wagon on day 1.

VOTE: Lucky

[bob3141]

adora what makes you think all teh scum were off the wagon day one.

Over the last 8 days you have failed to answer why you think scum wouldnt bus chemist

[bob3141]

Adora are you saying you have had 1v1 with midway

When you have infact largly just ingnored him

Just like he is doing to you

[midwaybear]

lucky is hammered btw

[LuckyLuciano]

Lynch midway tomorrow. Don't rule out MT as scum.

[midwaybear]

Lynch midway tomorrow. Don't rule out MT as scum.

you're town?!

[LuckyLuciano]

That's about the fakest reaction you could have had there. You have admitted not to have read anything prior to D4. You have admitted that you are just sheeping MT. There's no reason for you to be surprised that I am either alignment, as you have no reason to believe that I am either alignment.

[midwaybear]

yes and yes
even so, I believed you were scum though

[LuckyLuciano]

On the basis of... magic?

[midwaybear]

I first thought you were town based on your reaction, but then I remembered that scum Lucky knows that town hasn’t won yet and is probably trying to distance from his partner or something like that

[LuckyLuciano]

Wake dies tonight because I can no longer protect him. Clidd is pretty much confirmed town. I expect him to step things up D5 and help solve the game. I'd wager that Bob is town and mafia is between {MT, Midway, Adorable}. Good luck guys.

[LuckyLuciano]

Basically the reason I say that is that there's been pretty much no effort from anyone this game. Adorable and Midway are blindly sheeping MT. Clidd is mentally checked out. I didn't feel like explaining why the game was already fucking solved, and Wake decided to commit himself to the only losing course of action. Bob's the only one really trying to win the game. There's no reason for mafia to force life into a dead game. Clidd and Bob need to work together on a solve and everyone else needs to sheep them.

[LuckyLuciano]

Here's some stuff I had on MT WRT how they play RVS as both alignments. Maybe I was right, maybe I was wrong.

MorningTweet

- 78 pinged me as overexplaining, clarifying why they ranked the animals the way they did felt like it came from an on-guard mindset. However, I checked this with their past games and stumbled upon this post from a town game, so I was making a wrong assumption and it's NAI.

- A lot of MT's early game feels like fluff and nonsense. Trying to weigh it against an extended RVS, I still find MT's early game unpalatable. Using the same town game as reference, Micro 928, MT has a track record of posting a lot of fluffy nonsense during RVS. What's more valuable, is looking into a scum game, Micro 676. In that game MT went straight down to business, a stark contrast from what we see here. So let's start increasing the sample size. Introducing another mafia game, Newbie 1741, we see the same behavior from scum!MT. No fluff, all srs bznss. However, in Newbie 1756, they are serious pretty quickly as town. I feel that this may be contributed to because MT made this post in RVS, and somebody claimed it was suspicious to ever mention past games (lol), meaning MT has to immediately explain herself. Overall, the game has a very short RVS, which would explain why MT didn't fluffspam. Micro 926 was... well it was home to a special kind of nonsense that I don't care to read into. If you are curious, read the only post in Radiant Cowbell's ISO, then understand that 250 posts in players weren't sure if they were still RVSing or if they were actually playing the game yet. I can't talk about their ongoing games, and I think I've covered all of their completed games, so I'll leave this point here. I'm willing to start MT off as

town

so far.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, the most compelling argument I could find for scum!CSF/Adorable,

- Look at CSF's opening gif in these two town games. Look at this opening gif from a mafia game. Now look at CSF's opening gif in this game. Do I even need to continue? Town!cat is independent. Scum!Cat is more like Giovanni's Persian, a member of organized crime working with their master.

[LuckyLuciano]

Good luck, Clidd.

[LuckyLuciano]

There's for sure at least one scum between {Adorable, Midway}.

[Morning Tweet]

I need help seeing bob as strongly town as you do, Lucky. At the moment I'm really only entertaining midway/Adorable and midway/Bob. Cause I think Adorable and Bob weren't theatering and clidd/wake are on locktown

at the moment, I would be willing to bet the game on midway. He kept Wake in the lynchpool today, because if he didn't, he'd be force to vote himself tomorrow, I guess (?) He commented that even if you're town, we still win (??) even though I made it clear midway was the other option. I interpreted him as too scummy to be scum today. He said he would sheep me while I was voting him. He openly admits he's more interested in seeming town than finding scum

From what you've researched Lucky, is there any reason to lynch Adorable/bob over midway?

[LuckyLuciano]

I think the way Lucky has reacted to pressure lately hasnt been explicitly towny. Rather than focus on why midway is scum, he's more focused on why he's mechanically town.

Do keep in mind that MT acknowledges the possibility of midway being scum, and promptly moves on. The moment I offered lynching Midway prior to lynching me, MT moved forward with lynching me.

[LuckyLuciano]

UNVOTE:

Ok then. I do not get why midway says they will follow my vote, even when im voting them right now. It doesnt make a lot of sense from scum!midway perspective

Lynching Lucky, green!flip -> midway, red!flip -> Bob wins it. So long as clidd and wake are town, and Adorable/bob is not SvS.

I am going to ensure all of my assumptions are correct before recasting my vote. ill do that on my PC tonight prolly.

Why is this a winning scenario when,

midway -> Lucky -> Bob isn't? There's no reason that reversing the order of the lynches should prevent town from winning. Midway flipping red a day earlier, however, is bad for mafia. Further, me being alive going into the night is bad for mafia because there's a chance that I protect Wake. With me out of the way sooner, Wake is guaranteed to die tonight.

[LuckyLuciano]

Mafia can't bank on me protecting Wake if I wasn't lynched today either, because if they try to kill me to kill him I could waive my action and Wake could be on me. I could also target mafia. Mafia had to get rid of me today. Wake might be mentally checked out and overly paranoid, and maybe he

wants

to lose the game, but he's still town. Look at the people on my wagon aside from him.