Open 777: Switch (Town Wins)

[Dunnstral]

Looker is 110% antitown

[Dunnstral]

Mafia faction is going to want to lynch today because they killed into 2:2:1 and they don't know what the sk is immune to, plus vig is alive

We stick to our guns and no lynch: biggest chance of a town win. Sk might have incentive to no lynch as well, mafia might feel pressured to vote no lynch so they don't get shot at night etc. So we can do this. Honestly town probably loses here but this is our best shot.

Antitown can actually force a lynch through but they're not aligned with each other and have no incentive to do so

[Dunnstral]

Actually, looker is probably the sk. Because he still unvoted me when knightmare was getting run up, which would be a weird play as mafia. Or maybe I'm overthinking that whole interaction

[Dunnstral]

Raya, can you claim your role for me?

[Raya36]

I'm VT

Are you mafia Dunn?

[Raya36]

Both kills would probably have been easy mislynches which is interesting

[Dunnstral]

I'm VT

Are you mafia Dunn?

Nope -- I'm the vigilante. I did some thinking, I think it's actually optimal for me to claim today -- who's going to shoot at me, at this point? Mafia and SK have to shoot at each other (theoretically...)

I got you to claim first just to see if you'd try to go for a vig claim (and I was/am sussing you)

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n0 - I holstered -- I don't believe in random shooting with no information, it's possible to hit scum sure, but sk has a possibility of being immune to the vig kill, and a shot on cop or doctor would really swing things against town (as we've seen here)

Result: Both kills were made by anti-town (obviously)

n1 - I shot MariaR. It was either her or Knightmare for the vig kill, maria looked just a little bit scummier because I was pretty sure she was able to hammer if she had wanted to, and I was seeing partner interactions there, and I figured it would be much harder to lynch MariaR than knightmare.
Well... I messed up here, I'm not sure if I would have walked back on my read on Maria later or what - probably not, honestly, after a knightmare scum flip

Result: Only two kills, so either my kill overlapped with one of mafia/sk, or mafia kill hit sk and didn't go through.

n2 - I shot at Paragon - my biggest scumread at the time based on knightmare wagon interactions.

Result: My kill failed due to the switch mechanic.

n3 - I shot at Galron - It was Galron, Looker, or Paragon, OR holster. I decided against holstering, I felt I had to take the risk to pull this back for town since we nolynched again, which wasn't in my plans. I went for Galron because I thought that end of day vote switch was really weird and a ploy to guarantee a nolynch.

Result: Again, only two kills. My kill overlapped or mafia hit sk.

---

Posting related to my claim:

VOTE: Knightmare

Oh Im going to kill spec cause I got nothing better to do at 545 Am.

Maria was killed by the SK for some reason.

Are you claiming vigilante?

Actually, how would you know who mafia killed and who sk killed?

???

My brain turned off here for a moment - obviously I knew I was vigilante, but I didn't understand how Elmo knew that mafia didn't kill MariaR (the person I shot at). I asked him if he was claiming vigilante at the time because my brain was thinking he was somehow possibly claiming my role/I mentally thought 'ok, so he wouldn't be claiming sk openly so'

I suspect that this in turn made anti-town players believe that I was NOT the vigilante - and trust me, if I were vt I'd never give away that I was non-vig, allowing anti-town to home in on that role - I'm very careful about that sort of thing. Anyway, this wasn't my intention, it was an accident, but it seems to have worked out for me -- I'm still alive.

What looks too easy? I'm not sure what you're accusing us of. I voted Knightmare at deadline to try to avoid a nolynch - it wasn't my choice of a lynch yesterday. I think certain events point towards knightmare being scum (I'm not looking at night kills here), so today I want them dead for reasons other than deadline.

This is something I do sometimes as town pr - I didn't shoot at Knightmare, so I wanted to sort of soft that I didn't shoot at Knightmare and fail or something, implying that he would be sk, when that's not what happened - just in case Knightmare wasn't lynched, and I was killed at night.

It looks to me like those are the mafia and sk kills, in either order (I could also see a vig shooting maria though)

Not very subtle, in hindsight.

A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.

Can you explain why you think this because I strongly disagree?

The vig should definitely be shooting.

I definitely needed to be shooting.

Obviously getting some scum would have been nice, but, y'know.

He was scum reading Maria too hmm, maybe they thought she's the SK?

VOTE: Dunn

So are you calling Dunnstral the vig?

Based and not!vigpilled.

Weak argument all around from Knightmare - again, i don't think he believes it, he's voting me because I became a viable alternative to his own lynch, in his eyes.

VOTE: Knightmare491

Very weak argument, and quite possibly rolefishing

I have no idea who the SK is. I'm pretty sure we can get a mafia lynch today.

I have a crazy idea: Mafia and Vigilante both holster tonight

Let me explain why mafia needs to holster:

Lynching mafia brings us to 4:1:1 going into night. Let's assume that SK always shoots. If mafia and sk both shoot town, It's 2:1:1. Town cannot lynch, and has to no lynch and hope for cross kills.

Here's the kicker: If SK is immune to the mafia kill,

mafia can't win by bringing it to 2:1:1

. Town HAS to no lynch, even if it goes to 1:1:1.

I believe that mafia will not make a move that will likely lose them the game, just to screw town over. They need the SK dead, too.

Going into the day 3:1:1 is the only way for town to be able to lynch and potentially catch the SK.

Vigilante should not shoot: it's 50/50 on wether they'll be flipped in the first place: Best case scenario is vig shoots anti town BUT town has to no lynch to 3 alive anyway. And SK has a chance of being vig immune.

Thoughts?

I intended to follow this plan.
I further explained mech discussion in post 624

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So yeah, that's my claim in its entirety.

The play today: We no-lynch it. I'm going to holster my shot tonight - because if I shoot, we potentially end up with 2 players alive, resulting in, likely, a town loss.

Me not shooting means sk is forced to go for the mafia. Mafia is likewise going to be looking for the sk, very likely. And so, I might still be alive in final 3. If either faction tries to go for me, they do so while gimping themselves, I believe.

It's still a long shot for town winning. Of course, today we nolynch for the following reasons:

-Lynching the serial killer results in a town loss. Likewise, voting the serial killer and having them subsequently claim (I mean, we can't lynch them, after all.) might also result in a town loss, if scum quickhammer
-Scum are not likely to quickhammer someone who they believe to be town. The dynamics are kind of complicated, but basically they're afraid of losing to sk here (they are either immune to the mafia kill or the vig kill). In that same train of thought, I think the way the sk plays this day out will tell us a lot about what the sk is immune to.
-Our only options are lynching mafia, or nolynching. In order to lynch mafia, we need to also be voting with the serial killer. Which is... awkward, but not impossible. SK is probably fine with lynching mafia today, while pretending to be town.

Both kills would probably have been easy mislynches which is interesting

Them both being town blows my mind. I've been looking at this game completely wrong.

[Raya36]

Alright, so if no one counters vig then you're vig and I'm the VT. Who do you think is scum?

[Dunnstral]

Looker and then 2 out of the rest of you 3. I mean, most people alive right now are scum. I'm pretty sure looker isn't the one town compared to everyone else though

[Looker]

Dunn, just vote me. I'm VT and this game was fucked day 1 when you all got jack shit done.

Are you referring to the no lynch?

---

• Dunnstral called me an idiot who doesn't read his role PMs. Even if that were true, surely the other two mafia members would've worked that out. Either way, Dunnstral calling me stupid (scum) is a bit over the line. I don't think it's an adequate excuse. I'm pretty sure the scumteam is brassherald and Dunnstral/Black Ranger.
  
• What were the benefits of a massclaim today?
  
• It's not even possible to be 110% antitown, especially when he didn't give any reasoning. I'd beware of buddying attempts.
  
• I would've replaced out of this game forever ago if it weren't for this post
  Spoiler:

  @Elmo: Crawl or not, watch me win this, lol

  Just leaving this here. And Ill be sure to watch. My vote stays. Thanks for that.

  Read into that what you will

VOTE: brassherald

[Looker]

Happy scumday, Raya, and how is it possible for me and 2 other living players to all be scum

[Dunnstral]

???
Did you just claim sk at the end there?

[Dunnstral]

What were the benefits of a massclaim today?

As explained I don't think anti-town players try to nk me over each other, and this narrows things down.

[Dunnstral]

Looker, you realize Raya has to be scum from your point of view?

[Looker]

???
Did you just claim sk at the end there?

Please quote what you're referring to so that I can tell you that you're wrong

p-edit: go on

[Dunnstral]

On mobile, I'm referring to the spoiler and the line before it

[Looker]

On mobile, I'm referring to the spoiler and the line before it

This game was a definite loss from the beginning. I would've replaced like everyone else, but Elmo had to go and be an asshole. It won't be a bruise to my ego and it doesn't take much time to post a bit with y'all.

[Dunnstral]

p-edit: go on

Think about the # of each role remaining in the game

[Looker]

What makes you think that I can't count, Dunnstral

[brassherald]

Just to remind the mafia in a blatant way to try to pull a victory for town from the jaws of defeat, that unless we lynch SK today or no lynch, you have lost.

[brassherald]

By the way, I'm pretty confident last night Mafia hit the switch, SK hit Paragon, thinking it was a mafia kill, and well, Dunn explained the rest.

[brassherald]

692

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s

[brassherald]

I messed up that URL...

For post game

[RCEnigma]

This started, I am here. Still reading but I'll accept some clifnotes.

[RCEnigma]

Mmk I'm assuming Dunn is uncc'd. I was gonna ask if vig was permaswitched but there might have been crosskills. I have a theory that SK is likely to kill off mutual townreads (read as: slots that aren't hard scumreading each other.) So they should be fairly easy to pick out on read-through but not a priority.