Micro 940: A Normal Blitz II - Game Over

[clidd]

Monkey, you're scum dude.

[humaneatingmonkey]

You're very wrong, or you're scum. At least give me a chance at LYLO tomorrow. Why are you so convinced that it's me and not Umlaut + shiki anyway? Where is this confidence coming from?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Let me sleep clidd. I promise I'm town. If you're town, just give me time to convince you. You have nothing to lose.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Please clidd I need this for my win-loss record. My town record is 4/5/0 and I don't like that number.

[HoldenGolden]

If holden is mason, and Holden + Monkey aren't SvS, I am inclined to think that they are TvT if there was no significant push to lynch each other on D1 ~ D2, what makes the game's solution theoretically being

Shiki + Umlaut

and the speculation about coexistence between hood and mason wrong.

If you're town Shiki, however, the solve is basically Monkey + Umlaut. But the solution above is more plausible ^

This is what you posted. Instead of trying to prove me wrong, you are just going with the next option citing a "I'm not gonna lose"

I call ballicks.

[clidd]

Please clidd I need this for my win-loss record. My town record is 4/5/0 and I don't like that number.

Ok, just do your thing then.

[clidd]

I'll probably ignore Holden until the end of this game.

[HoldenGolden]

I'll probably ignore Holden until the end of this game.

I'm asking you to explain to me why you are so sure its HEM and why you arent refuting me over the Shiki/Ulmant read which you said you are more sure about.

If that's what it takes Cli2d for you to turn around and ignore my posts than fine. It's not my issue. It will be your issue if you are town if scum doesnt double bus if you are correct.

I'm not even saying scumHEM is impossible. I'm finding your play a radically different style than what I saw in newbie in a manner that is more scum aligned.

[Umlaut]

I think "I'm going to ignore Holden" is a pretty wtf reaction to have, but I can kind of empathize with clidd's wanting to vote and settle it in his own mind. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't strongly considered just voting shiki.

[shiki]

What do you make of HEM's progression on Ulmant and switch to Hirakis wagon day two?

i do not think it is enough to rule them out as partners, but it would be risky because monkey did not wait to see if others were scumreading umlaut as well. the switch to hiraki seemed quick, like monkey wasn't really interested in pushing umlaut.

She's the sort of player I would cop first if I could, because I will never get a read I feel confident in.

what sort of player is this? i ask because this is not a sentiment that has been commonly expressed toward me.

HEM/Shiki
HEM/Ulmant
Cli2d/Shiki
Cli2d/Ulmant

do you think clidd v. monkey would be a more desirable 1 v. 1 than me v. umlaut to {clidd, umlaut}? it makes just as much sense based on the worlds you presented and i previously expressed my willingness to vote.

Well when I compared the reads I got that:

Datisi:
Town lean on Ulmant
No stance given really on Shiki
Town on Hem
Scum on Madoka

Vs

Me:
Scum lean on ulmant
Scum on Shiki
Town on HEM
Scum on Madoka

if i work from the reads alone it points to scum!umlaut, which is wifomy but still more likely than clidd/monkey trying to use the difference in your reads to have the nightkill analysis point to umlaut, especially since neither of them tried to do so.

If Shiki + Umlaut isn't possible, I'll vote Monkey. Im not gonna lose to him.

so umlaut started the day saying monkey was scum, then clidd said i was scum, then a little while later umlaut switched to saying i am scum, then clidd said he will vote monkey. one if not both of {umlaut, clidd} are mafia so this has to be noteworthy in some way, but determining whether it is more likely for partners or non-partners to do this feels very difficult. on one hand it feels like they are trying to judge which lynch has more viability, in which case the fact that clidd simply expressed his desire to vote, going so far as to put a timer on it is also noteworthy, but on the other hand it feels kinda obvious? like something scum would try to avoid doing.

I'd be lying if I said I hadn't strongly considered just voting shiki.

a very large part of me wants to simply vote for umlaut.

hm.

[HoldenGolden]

I think "I'm going to ignore Holden" is a pretty wtf reaction to have, but I can kind of empathize with clidd's wanting to vote and settle it in his own mind. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't strongly considered just voting shiki.

But I can follow why you decide Shiki is a better option.

I make a post based on NK analysis saying why I dont think Shiki/Ulmant is a possible team. Rather than try to refute it, the team that he prefers, he pushes the monkey read over it without much explanation.

In theory, it should be you who he votes since that's the common thread between the two teams and I'm not sure why he isnt doing that. That's what I want to know. A deeper rationale.

[shiki]

like something scum would try to avoid doing.

*scum partners. like why would they both survey in this way when one of them could likely accomplish the same thing.

[HoldenGolden]

do you think clidd v. monkey would be a more desirable 1 v. 1 than me v. umlaut to {clidd, umlaut}? it makes just as much sense based on the worlds you presented and i previously expressed my willingness to vote.

Considering the town lock from Madoka on HEM, I would imagine that it wouldnt be as favorable. It requires far more backtracking. I'll admit it's more possible since cli2d replaced in allowing for it to break that mold however.

I think the purpose of keeping me alive today was for scum to try and win the game outright here rather than try to go to a true lylo.

[shiki]

Considering the town lock from Madoka on HEM, I would imagine that it wouldnt be as favorable. It requires far more backtracking.

though that is a townlock that clidd himself only noticed recently if we are to believe him, i agree that it seems like a weird angle for them to take.

[Umlaut]

I wonder if clidd was reaction testing to see how sure you were of your conclusions, Holden, by seeing whether you were comfortable with his voting. That would explain why he threatened to vote HEM instead of me, it would explain why he concluded with "I'm going to ignore you from now on," and it would explain why he didn't actually do it.

[HoldenGolden]

I wonder if clidd was reaction testing to see how sure you were of your conclusions, Holden, by seeing whether you were comfortable with his voting. That would explain why he threatened to vote HEM instead of me, it would explain why he concluded with "I'm going to ignore you from now on," and it would explain why he didn't actually do it.

Why are you trying to defend cli2d?

If that's the point, why did he not take me up on my offer to explain things and instead choose to state he will ignore me? Even as a reaction test, that compromises the test.

Why would he even be reaction testing me on my conclusions as town rather than just openly discuss why he thinks differently?

[HoldenGolden]

Considering the town lock from Madoka on HEM, I would imagine that it wouldnt be as favorable. It requires far more backtracking.

though that is a townlock that clidd himself only noticed recently if we are to believe him, i agree that it seems like a weird angle for them to take.

I also believe cli2d intial question on HEM is further evidence that they arent a team.

Bussing eachother before even I speak much and with two perfectly good mislynches on the table makes little sense.

[Umlaut]

I wonder if clidd was reaction testing to see how sure you were of your conclusions, Holden, by seeing whether you were comfortable with his voting. That would explain why he threatened to vote HEM instead of me, it would explain why he concluded with "I'm going to ignore you from now on," and it would explain why he didn't actually do it.

Why are you trying to defend cli2d?

If that's the point, why did he not take me up on my offer to explain things and instead choose to state he will ignore me? Even as a reaction test, that compromises the test.

Why would he even be reaction testing me on my conclusions as town rather than just openly discuss why he thinks differently?

I'm trying to understand what clidd is doing, because it doesn't make a lot of sense to me otherwise, and that was the best explanation I could muster. I agree it's a pretty lame test if that's what it is but it's the only explanation I can come up with for why he wouldn't just plan to vote (or, in fact, vote) someone he actually has in his scumpair. I feel like even his being scum isn't really a sufficient explanation for that.

[shiki]

I also believe cli2d intial question on HEM is further evidence that they arent a team.

i meant that it was seemed like a weird angle for clidd to take if umlaut were his partner, though he did not follow through on it. unless this wasn't a direct reply to what was quoted.

[Umlaut]

She's the sort of player I would cop first if I could, because I will never get a read I feel confident in.

what sort of player is this? i ask because this is not a sentiment that has been commonly expressed toward me.

That's hard to articulate compactly, and on reflection I should maybe have just said that I find you difficult to sort instead of saying you belong to a class of players with that characteristic. But I can say at least that you strike me as more analytic than emotion-driven, and particularly as the sort of analytic player whose posts often lead me to feel like they could have written something very close to the same thing regardless of alignment, if only because to them the analysis is so plainly

true

that there is no point in trying to obscure it. I think for example that, if you are scum, you are saying I am scum because you genuinely believe that that is in some sense the "correct" conclusion for town to draw from the evidence available, even though you know it isn't the true one.

Players like that are hard for me to solidify a read on and I usually have to fall back on PoE or associatives.

[shiki]

But I can say at least that you strike me as more analytic than emotion-driven, and particularly as the sort of analytic player whose posts often lead me to feel like they could have written something very close to the same thing regardless of alignment, if only because to them the analysis is so plainly true that there is no point in trying to obscure it. I think for example that, if you are scum, you are saying I am scum because you genuinely believe that that is in some sense the "correct" conclusion for town to draw from the evidence available, even though you know it isn't the true one.

i have been trying to apply your view of me to this game, but it kinda falls apart when i try to establish why town!you would think scum!me would play towards the "correct" conclusion for town to draw as opposed to the most likely favorable conclusion for town to draw in this situation. i could simply choose to give analysis of a different set of events if i was scum in order to push the most likely favorable outcome. maybe you could argue that they are one and the same, but it feels like you're just trying to give a plausible explanation for scum!me to have the same read on you that town!me does.

[Umlaut]

How would it benefit scum!me to argue that town!you would also say I'm scum in this scenario, and then say that nevertheless you're scum? I just don't see how that can possibly make me look ant better because it is basically saying it's understandable that a town player might scumread me now.

[shiki]

How would it benefit scum!me to argue that town!you would also say I'm scum in this scenario, and then say that nevertheless you're scum? I just don't see how that can possibly make me look ant better because it is basically saying it's understandable that a town player might scumread me now.

I guess the part of your statement implying that town!me would have the same read of you didn't come across very strongly to me.

[Umlaut]

How would it benefit scum!me to argue that town!you would also say I'm scum in this scenario, and then say that nevertheless you're scum? I just don't see how that can possibly make me look ant better because it is basically saying it's understandable that a town player might scumread me now.

[shiki]

it's just an inversion of my statement. it benefits scum!you to argue that town!me would also say you're scum because it benefits scum!you to say scum!me would say you're scum in this situation. it isn't necessarily designed to make you look better but rather to make me look worse.