Micro 940: A Normal Blitz II - Game Over

[shiki]

but it kinda falls apart when i try to establish why town!you would think scum!me would play towards the "correct" conclusion for town to draw as opposed to the most likely favorable conclusion for town to draw in this situation

why do you (umlaut) think scum!me would play towards the "correct" conclusion for town to draw as opposed to the most likely favorable conclusion for town to draw in this situation?

[PenguinPower]

Votecount 3.02

Not Voting (5) -

shiki, HoldenGolden, humaneatingmonkey, clidd, Umlaut

With 5 players alive it takes 3 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2020-05-25 11:20:00).

[Umlaut]

Shiki, I don't have a real answer to that because it was an inessential detail that I could easily be wrong about. It seems that you're nitpicking at an inessential detail of my post, the purpose of which was to establish the manner in which I found you difficult to read. Latching on to that detail to suggest that I'm just trying to push an agenda, in response to my addressing a question you asked in the first place, makes me wonder if you ever actually cared about the answer to that question.

[shiki]

my interest in the question was only partially game relevant. i've played ten or so games and noone had previously expressed a difficulty in reading me in the way you had. the "inessential detail" felt like it was angling toward a goal.

[shiki]

like if it was due to a genuine inability to read me, i was curious as to what it was about me that caused that. but it feels more like you were covering for townreading me and then having to reverse yourself when you realized you had trapped yourself after holdengolden presented his view of the possible worlds.

[humaneatingmonkey]

bruh how brave was clidd with that vote attempt huh?
i remembered town!clidd to be more apprehensive, analytical, and scrutinizing than that
without re-reading, i would say clidd is probably scum here based on that alone

[humaneatingmonkey]

im gonna spend time here now

[humaneatingmonkey]

Yeah I think I'm voting for clidd/Madoka

[humaneatingmonkey]

Mega post coming up. I'm glad Madoka + clidd's ISO is just one page.

[HoldenGolden]

its 2 am so I shall do things here tomorrow.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Spoiler: #171

Umlaut, could you confirm if you are indeed Masons? I'd rather not waste mental energy attempting to sort you if you are. And being deceptive and having us think you are when you are not, causes confusion and is unfair to your allies if you're town.

This post omits the possibility that Umlaut could be scum. I believe town!Madoka would have spent some energy discussing a possible scum!Umlaut situation. But scum!Madoka could either be TMI-ing or it's scum!Umlaut.

Spoiler: #402

I have been skimming, but I am no longer V/LA and will be able to put more time into this. Also Micc, you didn't read this. If you did, I wasn't V/LA, I'm lying.

I am up to page 5 on in-depth reading:

5 nai
6 nai
8 nai
9 nai
10 nai
11 hu: town, non-lamisty as compared to previous game
12 nai
13 nai
14 nai and also i dont know what this means
15 nai
18 nai and funny
25 ge: town, only town role fish and role phish and roll fish
27 ge: town flex posting
28 da: scum joke
29 hu: scum vote
30 ge: town reaction
31 hu: town perspective
32 ge: town reaction
33 sh: town involvement
34 nai
36 da: hedgey = scummy
37 hu: town, is ok with people being town read / not arguing against it
38 nai
39 nai
41 nai
42 ge: town, guiltless
44 nai
45 nai
46 hu: nvm he is arguing against it
47 nai
53 hu: no, faking that requires premeditation. george was clearly reacting in the moment. you dont need meta for this
54 nai bugspray/umlaut line funny
56 hu: i believe
58 nai
59 ge: do the town reads really come from meta? i dont think so. this read on hem is iffy
60 hu: weird post. really weird post
61 nai
62 da: hedge again
65 nai shiki #2
66 nai
67 nai
68 nai
69 nai shiki #3
70 nai
71 hu: yes i agree
73 hu: good accepting it
74 nai but man this is a completely different guy from last game it's making me feel weird
75 da: is reading as unnaturaly conversive to me. is this bias??? my experience with him is limited so let's make this nai
76 nai
77 da: good tone
80 nai
81 nai
82 nai and scaring me
83 nai and i thought i knew fear before
84 nai
85 nai
86 nai
87 nai lol whyyy
88 ho: good eval
89 nai
90 hu: alright point
91 nai
93 hu: highly town indicative. hu in previous game was very forceful with his positions
94 nai
97 sh: good eval
98 nai
99 nai
100 nai
101 hu: no good, it wasnt suspicious at all
103 nai also don't know why he said this
104 hu: good
105 nai
106 nai
109 nai
110 nai
111 nai
113 nai
114 ho: hmmm
115 nai
117 nai
118 nai
122 nai
123 nai

From the content up to that point,

♡ I am town reading HEM. He is playing in an easy going way and does not seem to care too much about players being town read. In the previous game he pushed for players pretty hard so as to avoid being PoEd. He was also very LAMISTy and he does not appear to be making an effort to appear town here. My negatives are that his friendliness and jovial character is making me feel weird because of the stark contrast with his previous play. It does make me wonder if he is trying to be so different from the last game, that he is town read by meta.

@Holden

, did scum HEM in your last game play similarly to Blitz I? Or did he change up his style? Do you think his play here is within the realm of being deliberately different? Another thing that is weirding me out is how he keeps addressing Shiki. But I think the most suspicious part of HEM's play was his read on the George situation. George simply was not scummy there, and HEM portrayed everyone else's read of the situation as coming from meta, but I do not think that was the case except for Shiki. I suppose this, along with the way HEM has been addressing Shiki, could be explained if they are in a neighborhood and Shiki expressed her meta view of George privately.

♡ I have a town impression of George. His reaction to the masons claim appeared natural and fluid. My only negative is that his play is different than the previous Blitz. That does not provide enough data, however, for this to greatly impact my read. Oh, I also was not fond of his HEM read. George agreed that everyone's view of him came from meta, but again, I do not think that was true. He just looked townie from the situation.

♡ I have a town impression of Shiki. I agreed with her analysis of HEM.

♡ I have a slight town impression of Holden. I liked his perspective on George.

♡ I have a slight scum impression of Datasi. He seems off, but I am not sure how much of that is bias from future pages. Datisi once told me that he is great at being town read from town as tone, so it is concerning that I am getting a scum impression. The hedgeyness of his pan cakes is what pinged me. Is it really a pot bake if it comes with an asterisk? That is a warm make not a hot sake. The timing of his HEM pot cake also did not seem natural.

---

If Shiki and HEM are neighbors, the setup is looking similar to this game. It may be then, that the neighbors are both town, and mafia consists of a traffic analyst and a goon.

She says she is townreading me, but she narrates a possibility that I could be scum. I don't think the confidence that I am town reflects the thoughts she's having about my slot here. Not a natural progression — especially since the elimination of her suspicions rest solely on me + shiki being neighbors.

Spoiler: #403

Ok, looking through that last page, I think it is safe to lock HEM as town.

I think it was very shallow to lock me as town there.

Spoiler: #507

This represents the current strength of my reads

GeorgeBailey
<<<<

<

<<<<<o>>>>>>>>>>

Datisi
<<<<<

<

<<<<o>>>>>>>>>>

HoldenGolden
<<<<<<

<

<<<o>>>>>>>>>>

Hiraki
<<<<<<<<<<o>>

>

>>>>>>>

shiki
<<<<<<<<<<o>>>>>>

>

>>>

humaneatingmonkey
<<<<<<<<<<o>>>>>>>>

>

>

This indicates that she finds GeorgeBailey more suspicious than Datisi. I think it's very important to note that she released this chart at about the time GeorgeBailey was the top wagon of the day. She may have been trying to get the right opportunity to vote George there.

Spoiler: #543

Less than 14 hours. I am quite sleepy and so not up to doing a thorough summary, but here are my notes:

252 nai makes sense
253 nai
256 nai
257 nai
260 nai
261 da: not good
262 nai
264 nai maybe townish
267 nai
268 nai
270 ho: why are you still scumhunting masonssss
272 nai
273 da: i honestly cant buy that you dont believe the claim at this point. I also dont buy that you believe I am pushing in bad faith. You referenced me pushing you similarly before and you keep addressing me as if i am town
274 nai
277 da: this is example, you are drawing a comparison between this situation and when I pushed you similarly as confirmed town. This doesn't seem like the type of perspective a person who thinks I am pushing in bad faith would have
278 nai
279 da: town impression
301 nai
312 nai
319 hi: i agree with his point on hem on second read
321 nai
332 nai
335 nai
346 hi: hiraki's points are fair
349 nai
351 nai
355 nai
360 nai consistent
364 hi: thoughts are uncharacteristically clear and agreeable.
370 sh: not a lot said here
375 nai
382 i am going to miss shiki ]:
384 nai
387 hi: good tone, first point is indeed a stretch though, and he seems to be much more level headed and articulate than usual.
404 da: woah this gave me butterflies. not in a warmfuzzies sort of way, but in an omg its scum! sort of way. datisi's joke_annoyance with hoctac's shenanigans reads really fake to me, like he is trying to hold onto the perspective that the mason claim could still be untrue. It's scum faking ignorance. + for using the god-tier symbol though: the tilde. reading further, the whoa mindmeld looks fake too. reading further, datasi has now done what i believe to be a guranteed scum tell. i thought he did it earlier too but he had a reasonable explanation for it
409 nai but also bussy/oportunistic
413 ho: i dont see how town george would be lazy, but the rest of this post is good especially the last two lines
414 hi: ping -- hiraki has spoken positively about both me and shiki
415 ge: good tone
425 nai
428 nai
429 nervous
430 nai
434 da: no it isnt
435 hi: i didnt pick up that hiraki spoke positivly of umlaut as well. this is very much out of character from what ive seen of hiraki. albeit ive only been in two games.
436 da: i have reach confirmation bias point and can no longer read any of datisi's post without scumreading, so i am going to stop including them unless they are particularly notable.
444 nai
450 ge: iioa
451 nai
452 nvm ill still include them, nai
453 nai and good question
457 ge: WHAT?! This gave me goosebumps. Not the ooo that's nice kind. The woah this is pretty suspect kind. Why can't it by T v T?
459 cont.
456 cont..
462 ho: townie
463 wait literal goats?
464 nai
466 ge: what happened to preferring hem and feeling weary about the hiraki wagon?? (457)
467 hi: town indicative -- the counting bit
468 nai
472 ge: ok fair explanation to 466
475 nai
483 sh: im not sure what shiki means here
487 nai
489 nai
492 nai
494 nai
496 nai
497 nai
583 naiisuppose
516 nai
517 nai
523 nai
525 good
528 ho: seems very fair
530 nai
532 nai
534 good
536 nai
537 really like tone of this interaction

I guess I will lay out the essential stuff:

♡ I feel fairly confident datisi is scum (see note 404).
♡ I feel more positively about holden from our interaction.
♡ I still think HEM is town. I do not think the points on Hiraki are AI though.
♡ I think Hiraki may be image managing this game. He tends to be quite mean, but he has complimented me, shiki, and umlaut in some form. He also seems to be playing less assertively. This is not substantial enough to lynch him though. I think most of his content is reasonable. He misinterpreted HEM it seems, but I don't see that as AI. Not really having a solid scum read other than HEM is the biggest negative.
♡ George making HEM vs Hiraki as only T v S is really scummy.

I think lynching Datisi, George, and Hiraki in that order wins it.

VOTE: Datisi

But here, she votes Datisi. Why? Did I miss the part where she thought George can be redeemed?

The answer is George was the likely lynch for the day and she wanted to distance from all that. I think town!Madoka would have hammered GeorgeBailey there.

Spoiler: #604

We have a mislynch, correct? I say we just lynch Hiraki and if he flips green it is HEM + Shiki.

I think this was shiki who mentioned this but I agree that this feels like scum setting up a LYLO a day in advance. I think town!Madoka would have re-considered her Umlaut read at LYLO — like every normal town would on any non-confirmed.

Spoiler: #615

No, I am not going to spend time trying to explain vibe. The way he talks about Shiki reminds me of the way he talked about bugspray. Read it yourself or lynch me.

@datisi, I have no idea if it is Shiki + HEM until I see Hiraki's flip. This conversation is fruitless because it is speculation based on no evidence other than PoE.

Is it just me or is it uncharacteristic of Madoka to say "lynch me or him" here? There was no real threat here, but it seems like she's trying to project confidence for her narrative on #604. It reads as fake to me.

Spoiler: #805

quote="In post 805, clidd"]

my gut reaction when i saw hectic die was that the neighbors were both town because i'd lowkey expect someone else to get shot if one of them is scum (like i thought my reactions were plainly obvious if you knew they weren't masons) but holden disagrees with me so idk anymore

pedit: fine with massclaim, sure

I agree with that and I can see it happening.

I have an example of a game where the mason + town-hood scenario occurred: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go[/quote]

At this point, if I would infer from his posts when talking to HoldenGolden and Umlaut, later on, he has just ISO'd Datisi without the context of the game. He seems like he's too confident of that possibility without any other game information. That's not natural progression.

Spoiler: #807

Shiki seems naked scum in my opinion, but I will investigate the possibilities further when I get home.

I would like to note that he thinks Shiki is naked scum, but he's willing to throw out that read because I'm more scum am I right?

Spoiler: #812

I can't believe Hiraki flipped town. He was playing so fucking bad that he should have been lynched all along since Day 1. His tunnel on me was full of shit that he extrapolated on even more shit. I can't believe you can play as town and really do that to someone. Someone people just have huge fucking egos that they can't accept that they may be wrong even when proven wrong multiple times.

Don't sign up on a game with me again, Hiraki.

Anyway I'm currently sleep-deprived right now after editing a heavy ass video. I'm gonna sleep and re-read after I wake up.

Monkey, considering Holden's natural paranoia regarding your slot (which has already stolen 2 wins from him), did he demonstrate this in a genuine way during the game in your opinion ? What's your read on him now ?

If holden is mason, and Holden + Monkey aren't SvS, I am inclined to think that they are TvT if there was no significant push to lynch each other on D1 ~ D2, what makes the game's solution theoretically being

Shiki + Umlaut

and the speculation about coexistence between hood and mason wrong.

If you're town Shiki, however, the solve is basically Monkey + Umlaut. But the solution above is more plausible ^

this entire chain and clidd including HoldenGolden for the list of slots in consideration here feels like fake scumhunting at LYLO.

Spoiler: #866, #867, #875

If Shiki + Umlaut isn't possible, I'll vote Monkey. Im not gonna lose to him.

If you're wrong and the team is Shiki + Umlaut, we lose.

Monkey, you're scum dude.

I'm willing to lynch him for these posts alone. This is so different from the analytical, apprehensive clidd that I experience in Newbie 1996. He projects fake confidence that it's me and I don't think it's something that only I would notice. It's just so obvious.

I'm going to evaluate tomorrow who between Umlaut and shiki is clidd's partner. For now, I think Madoka/clidd flips scum.

[humaneatingmonkey]

HG, I made a wallpost ISO. If you sleep on it before commenting, I'm gonna be so discouraged.

[humaneatingmonkey]

...

PenguinPower,

can you be a dear and edit the formatting of my post? I feel like people won't read my awesome wallpost with that atrocious formatting

[HoldenGolden]

Oh um I like the spoiler usage, but the formatting could use some

love. The spoilers also get a bit excessive. But hey! It seems you are really passionate in either finding scum or lying to my face!

(HEM I see white dots. My reading companionship is not suitbale right now, and I may be ~slightly~ tipsy. Keep doing the holy work and stuff.

Also congrats to releasing the new song. Can I get link post game plz thank tanks)

pedit: yeah you are right.

[HoldenGolden]

Spoiler:

I'll give the agreement that I was focused on Ulmat while most were not, especially given his reaction and his further posts pinging me.

➳ I am confused though on why my continued discussion about the Mason's stands out to you when others were actively discussing alternatives to the claims around the same time I brought up the neighbor's logic (from memory alone, Datisi, George, Shiki, and HEM). Not only was it a focus on the thread the time, but I also stopped after the reaffirmation by Ulmant in a later post like everyone else. Why does my discussion stand out to you?

➳ Further, Whats this "Holden doesn't let things go" you mention in the spoiled PbP analysis? You are giving yourself a reason to doubt your read logic which I find hard to believe actually exists (as I don't think letting things go = pressure)?

➳ Particularly in the HEM George reaction over my playstyle, how is it TMI? George was asked to compared by ISO from the newbie me and HEM played versus this game. It had nothing to do with the blitz game prior to this, and due to the differences in the length of day phases, I don't see how that is anymore TMI than a reasonable conclusion based on the comparison presented by HEM. The only way it makes sense is if george is scum, and he slipped that I am town since he knows I am town. But that sounds flimsy.

➳ Now onto the spoiled PBP analysis, whats the point in including words like "weird/interesting/hmm" etc. for an analysis and then not explain why they are such interesting bits? None of that actually explains anything AI, and only serves as fluff if you arent going to actually use those posts for anything AI.

➳

It is how much time you spent on it. In particular 187 - 189. Digging into their motivations seemed completely unnecessary at this point. It is possible, however, that my interpretation is biased by the fact that I am reading with the knowledge that they are hard claiming.

➳

In Blitz one you went in circles for days regarding the Night action plan and why it was best to lynch you. You were so fixated on it and I had to skim past it because of how unnecessary it was.

➳

Regarding the TMI, in 235 he is assigning intent behind your posts. There is a difference between saying:

"He's literally just been asking questions" and
"He's literally just been asking questions to get people to be more transparent with their reads."

Having insight into your intent is what is TMI. Similarly, in 244 he is presuming to know the reason why you are playing differently. This is especially weird because you already stated why you are playing differently, and that was not it. It is also weird because, while yes HEM brought up that newbie game as an

example

, his larger point was that you were playing different

in general

. George played with you in the previous Blitz, so the logic that your playstyle difference is due to the pacing does not hold up. He is focusing on the inconsequential difference between this and the newbie game, rather than the bigger point that HEM was trying to make. This indicates to me that he is not genuinely sorting you.

➳

I would not call the spoiled bit an analysis. My analysis is the non-spoiled bit. The spoiler is just for the sake of transparency, it is not there to communicate my thoughts. However, I am providing them so that you can see where my train of thought is at a given time and as a reference to the points I make in my evaluation.

I'm even more confused. You also in your catch up called plenty of my posts good/townie, so why do you assume that Hoctac's locktown post from earlier is the only reason someone could be townreading me?

Because I have not seen an indication that he has still been attempting to sort you since that post.

How is directly questioning them and trying to figure out the motivation behind the stunt they pulled if scum (the neighbor theorizing posts) indirect doubting

Because you were puzzling it out, whereas Monkey just said he did not believe it.

I get a feeling your read on me is stronger based on how you reconfirmed it without being asked to Hoctac here

Your feeling is incorrect. As you pointed out, I have gotten a number of town impressions from your posts as well, and they are stronger than those I have gotten from George.

So why not vote and pressure me directly?

I do not vote until I am ready to lynch. See Blitz I, Totally Real Food, and Hard Boiled Eggs.

A) I forgot to respond to this
B) I remember there was a TMI point raised in the ISO of madoka, but sadly it was for a george read. There goes easier team elimination.

[clidd]

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

[clidd]

[clidd]

I'll probably continue as low-effort here.

Waiting to see if scum will flash-hammer.

[PenguinPower]

Votecount 3.03

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

clidd

Not Voting (4) -

shiki, HoldenGolden, humaneatingmonkey, Umlaut

With 5 players alive it takes 3 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2020-05-25 11:20:00).

[clidd]

It isn't GT, by the way. I'm scumreading Monkey.

[Umlaut]

Scum won't flash-hammer

[clidd]

Shiki isn't online, I guess. I'll wait until she post to confirm.

[Umlaut]

Eh, I'll bet the game on this actually.

VOTE: shiki

(actually logged on this morning to do that before I saw clidd had voted, but I don't see why that should stop me)

[clidd]

If you're town, it's Shiki + Monkey.

[clidd]

But I'll keep my vote until I see Shiki posting.