Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Dunnstral]

I guess the best way to read my thought process on VP/votato is that there is Scum in one of them, but not both.

Should I be able to get that from the list you posted?

I think at the time I "outed the cop" (pretty blatantly, I would add) that mafia probably was way ahead of me with that. I literally didn't know Blair was Cop until I mentioned it. Then I literally guessed (which meant to be general and not specific post number) what post it was.

If I get strung up for being right on a guess, I am adding that to my wiki.

OK. It wasn't really meant as a dig at you, but moreso explaining that Blair claiming wasn't because she was feeling pressured.

hmm i think my read on VP was bad. why do you think theres scum in votato/VP quick?

This reads as an opportunistic scum post looking to keep options open in case the midway push doesn't work out

Why did your read suddenly change?

[Dunnstral]

I was asking about your SvS with votato/Gamma, not this other thing because I really don't care about that as I am inno.

Oh, well Votato started with Gamma neutral, moved to town and started going against Blair when she was pushing for Gamma before her claim, then turned against Gamma fast after the claim

That's about the extent of Votato's interactions with Gamma, but he also pushes numerous alternative wagons and keeps trying to make something work while Gamma is being wagoned

Something that he is doing again today as he is being wagoned

[Dunnstral]

As soon as you said there's only 1 scum in VP/Votato, Votato instantly turned against him - and it looked like you had Vp as town earlier due to your weird reads list, so from his point of view you just now came out with some suspicion on VP

[votato]

nope. i didnt turn against VP. i asked quick a question. i still TR VP (ish). the movement on my read is in the general towards towny direction. not sure what youre reading, but it isnt my post. and i've been pushing for the same wagon since yesterday. i want a wagon on midway. im really not changing at all. but i suppose i could go for a dunnstral wagon.

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: votato

i think this makes the most sense, i still buy my d1 case that votato was phoning in the scumhunting a little bit and i don't like his interactions with blair

not 100% on this, but i want to mark this down before we end up in a midway/mavs thunderdome i'm not sure i agree with

Why votato over quick?

Also, didn't you say you could see a midway/Mavs pairing? If so, wouldn't running those dueling wagons be like an ideal world for you?

[VP Baltar]

Oh, well Votato started with Gamma neutral, moved to town and started going against Blair when she was pushing for Gamma before her claim, then turned against Gamma fast after the claim

That's about the extent of Votato's interactions with Gamma, but he also pushes numerous alternative wagons and keeps trying to make something work while Gamma is being wagoned

I'll admit because I'm biased here and misread Blair's Gamma case as coming from scum with inside info, when her inside info was actually town PR. So votato's switch here doesn't feel scummy to me because it mirrors my own.

When you say he was pushing alternative wagons during the claim, what do you mean?

[CantHateAPuppy]

"midway is scum because in another game he toneread me and posted more" is a pretty asinine argument this late in the the game imo

@VP: votato over quick because I still like my d1 observations, so combined with yesterday it's scumread on votato and maybe null now on quick

midway/mavs is possible but doesn't convince me, the more midway interacts today the more i am nudging him in my town column tbh

[midwaybear]

the stuff you quoted is entirely unrelated btw. Yes, I recall saying that somewhere, but I think I was being too cocky in myself when I said that. TBH, you are hard to read especially if you are actually doing the thing where you play as town even when you are scum. I was only able to toneread you that once because you were under pressure. TBH there hasn't really been much pressure on you this game(which isn't necessarily a bad thing), but I feel like pressure is how I can read you and it hasn't been there.

I think this is bs. What do you think of that?

that's what happens whenever I type more than 3 sentences. It's true though because you're hard to read.

[midwaybear]

You don't understand, usually by now Blair has the class settled down and school is in session. You'll see I guess, or maybe not, don't want to poison the well here, (Sorry Blair!)

So you're saying in your past experience, Blair would be serious out of the gates? Want to make sure I'm interpreting correctly

This post reads like VPB is trying to shade Blair while also not trying to look too obvious about it.

your post style is also rather different. you are usually an analytical player with long wallposts. here you are asking questions and pressing people.

So you find him less aggressive this game? Mind linking the games you read? I'd like to take a look myself.

Once again VPB egging on the idea that a player is suspicious just because they might be a little off from their normal town meta. This logic ultimately is bad because Blair flipped town, and while I'm still iffy about atarashi/hellbooks what VPB did in both of those scenarios looks pretty scummy.

[VP Baltar]

You don't understand, usually by now Blair has the class settled down and school is in session. You'll see I guess, or maybe not, don't want to poison the well here, (Sorry Blair!)

So you're saying in your past experience, Blair would be serious out of the gates? Want to make sure I'm interpreting correctly

This post reads like VPB is trying to shade Blair while also not trying to look too obvious about it.

your post style is also rather different. you are usually an analytical player with long wallposts. here you are asking questions and pressing people.

So you find him less aggressive this game? Mind linking the games you read? I'd like to take a look myself.

Once again VPB egging on the idea that a player is suspicious just because they might be a little off from their normal town meta. This logic ultimately is bad because Blair flipped town, and while I'm still iffy about atarashi/hellbooks what VPB did in both of those scenarios looks pretty scummy.

Asking questions is trying to shade Blair? I thought it was how the game was played when you are trying to gather information...

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 3.1

votato

(2): CantLynchAPuppy, Dunnstral

midwaybear

(1): votato

mavsfan41

(1): midwaybear

Not Voting

(5): ready2rock, VP Baltar, Quick, mavsfan41, hellbooks

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-06-03 01:07:00)

[midwaybear]

Asking questions is trying to shade Blair? I thought it was how the game was played when you are trying to gather information...

i guess so. nobody else was really doing that though, so it just gave me a weird feeling

[votato]

You don't understand, usually by now Blair has the class settled down and school is in session. You'll see I guess, or maybe not, don't want to poison the well here, (Sorry Blair!)

So you're saying in your past experience, Blair would be serious out of the gates? Want to make sure I'm interpreting correctly

This post reads like VPB is trying to shade Blair while also not trying to look too obvious about it.

your post style is also rather different. you are usually an analytical player with long wallposts. here you are asking questions and pressing people.

So you find him less aggressive this game? Mind linking the games you read? I'd like to take a look myself.

Once again VPB egging on the idea that a player is suspicious just because they might be a little off from their normal town meta. This logic ultimately is bad because Blair flipped town, and while I'm still iffy about atarashi/hellbooks what VPB did in both of those scenarios looks pretty scummy.

this is a great post from midway if you only read what he wrote and ignore the quotes. If you read the quotes, it's awful. That's not at all what was happening midway

[hellbooks]

as soon as I saw the day ended, I procrastinated on reading this game. sorry. I'm doing it now

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: hellbrooks

I'll help you out.

[VP Baltar]

i guess so. nobody else was really doing that though, so it just gave me a weird feeling

Nobody else was asking questions to figure out motivations and intent? I disagree.

[midwaybear]

i interpreted those specific questions as subtle shading and noone was doing that

[hellbooks]

I personally missed the bite of #258 and saw it as straight-faced the first time I read it, what was your thought process behind thinking he'd attack you for it?
I think votato's playing objectively a bit badly but I don't see it as more likely to come from scum than town, the 'flailing' just seems like him being irritated and reacting to Puppy's vote.

if i had to make a ruling one way -- for gamma to jump in and defend him here, I would lean towards that making votato townier by association. it's too low stakes of a situation to leave a trail like this.

I think votato is Town this game. There, I said it.

I laughed at "there, i said it." I'd love to sign off every post like this, lol

Blair v. Quick is town v town, fight me:

yes, I think there's a certain recklessness, a certain scatteredness on Quick's part here that says town to me.

@ready - What makes you think Blair vs Quick is TvT? I know Puppy mentioned a reason for it earlier but do you agree with what he said or do you have your own for it?

this question has a bad smell to me. it's barely a poke, such a small thing... as if to say, "hi, partner! i'm acknowledging you a bit! post more!"
VP Baltar's case afterwards isn't the greatest, but i'm looking with anticipation to see where it goes.
#604 potentially feels to weaken this theory. not for the vote - in fact that's another potential alarm bell thats impossible to read into, could very well be Gamma identified ready as not making it to endgame and decided to commit to the bus - but because of his follow up on the little point from before, perhaps?

Also, I'm scumreading mavsfan at this point. there's a particular reactiveness feel to his presence, maybe I'm getting the sense he's comfortable to

appear

rational while not doing much. would be interested to see what other people have picked up here. he's perfectly situated in the "danger zone". good posts, flies under the radar a bit, answers questions thoughtfully... something like that. also - his interactions with gamma are practically a blank slate.

==

day 2. again, there's no reason for gamma to commit to the bus from the gates here. Espeically that, it must feel a bit exhausting to have narrowly avoided a d1 lynch on a partner and then decide to start it over again. yeah, ready can be town.

Whoops, forgot to do this:
VOTE: ready2rock

two threads in play here: blair presents gamma, and gamma presents the alternative, ready2rock. mavsfan decides to go with the latter.

Sure. They have a low number of posts but by the looks of it, they engage meaningfully with other people.

actually, this is exactly what i have articulated earlier as the danger zone. (i'm not here to preach, hindsight is 20 20 and i have the advantage of reading knowing that gamma flips scum, but i'm just saying, let's apply this same logic here to mavsfan.)

r2r has yet to give a single confident original read. everything has been hedged, most reads are wishy washy and neutral.

this is no reason to suspect a person. in fact, i would expect many scum to have more confident reads (buddying town, pushing a mislynch, bussing, etc.)

midwaybear feels a bit of a distraction. if Gamma tries to pounce on it, I'll write him as town and call it a day.

Also scum:
r2r

Maybe scum?
midway
Dunn
votato (though I'm doubting myself hard on that now)

mediumly suspect.

Someone tell me if traffic analyst is a standard kind of role? I have not played in years and do not know what is considered a "normal" role.

unvote

However, if VP is scum with Gamma, he is

seriously

shooting himself in the foot by waffling here. I also like him voting once he reads the role. it's an avenue scum might not want to leave open if he is trying to save gamma.

Looking at Quick and puppy to vote mavs with me.
VOTE: mavsfan

we have to pressure midway today. why its so hard to get a wagon going on that guy i dont know, but i feel like its because his buddies are trying not to bus.

I wouldn't be appalled to do this just because i think midwaybear would be a hard variable to crack in LYLO + he seems to be playing pretty survivalistically. but i still think he's a distraction and the next natural target for scum (mavs) to look for a mislynch on to buy time. however, I did see your meta point earlier and while I can't substantiate it I did put it in the bank.

VOTE: hellbrooks

I'll help you out.

this isn't good - I think we ought to be doing something more productive than performatively pushing along an incoming catchup.

[hellbooks]

the people i dont have comment on, dunnstral and puppy, i dont have enough on them but i ought to be able to go back and read their posts again and see what I can get on a second read. however, for now I'll just be here in the present. I'm tired of reading

[VP Baltar]

Also, I'm scumreading mavsfan at this point. there's a particular reactiveness feel to his presence, maybe I'm getting the sense he's comfortable to appear rational while not doing much. would be interested to see what other people have picked up here. he's perfectly situated in the "danger zone".

Can you point me to some examples that struck you on reading the game of why you think he is not doing much?

[ready2rock]

Going back to reread day 2, here's what jumped out to me:

I’ll be honest, I had a slight scum read on Nauci. Anyone have a hypothesis on why it was her? Looking through her ISO she had votes on r2r and votato. She’s not the only suspecting those two. She also had 851 asking about GammaGooey that went unfulfilled before the hammer.

Looking at the votes on NPOM, I must think there was at least one scum voting there. (Yep, I was on that wagon too, I’m aware.) Quick’s case and post detailing his case I think is extremely hard for scum to fake and for him to learn hard on it, I can’t see him being scum. Blair piggybacks off this but has independent thoughts asking NPOM to scum hunt and town hunt which would suggest she was influenced by Quick’s case but did have her own reasons to suspect him. Atarashi had reason to suspect NPOM but that was very early in the game, so can’t say much about that as he’s disappeared. Dunnstral, R2R, and votato are the others and I’ve gotta think scum is most likely here.

Dunnstral

- I didn’t like the catch up and hammer. Read to me like a “sure, why not” vote. Reading the catch up, I couldn’t see conviction in a reason to hammer with the thought of NPOM flipping scum.

R2R

- I’ve gotta go back and reread the interaction between him and NPOM and see if I think this is TvT. I’m leaning a vote here right now with the flip of NPOM. The reason I won’t is cause I don’t trust my reads right now, speaking of which...

Votato

- so I was pretty vocal about reading votato as town. But with NPOM’s flip and looking through the ISOs of the voters’ this one I did have issue with, specifically the development of the NPOM vote. So 310 was awhile ago with the amount of posts this game has, but votato states here he feels strongly about Atarashi and won’t move his vote. He then flips to VP Baltar. Then again on NPOM. Seems like a drastic change from “not moving off Atarashi.” Of all the votes, this one seems to be the most hopping on a wagon. I still read the rest of his ISO as town, but the vote progression from resistance of moving his vote to willingly hopping on the NPOM wagon, I’m having serious doubts here and want a better read here.

VOTE: Vote: votato

Not sure how I feel about mavs pointing out Nauci's suspicion and questioning of Gamma here in light of the flip. VP then says later that he should reply to the posts, which I get a bit more solid town vibes off of

@Gammagooey: reading R2R’s ISO, I saw 702 plenty of times and I thought that was a fair representation of what NPOM was actually doing. It fit the narrative that he was lazy scum hunting which ultimately lead to his lynch (along with Quick’s case). I know you explained this, but I’m not sure I understand why that one would be scummy and grouped with the others. The other posts you’ve pointed out, sure. But 702 I’m not quite sure I read it as scummy. Could you please elaborate a bit further on that one?
Your Blair/R2R interaction is very interesting.

This I flat out don't like, really comes off as trying to prod your buddy to strengthen their case while trying to come across as being skeptical of it.

Oh, didn't mean to quote Puppy in that post, but I did want to point out how awful that post was. Is anybody buying that first line?

im not buying any of it. who would want to vote for me

Me. But the Blair/R2R pairing makes waaaaay more sense than you/R2R.

UNVOTE: Votato

Blair’s wagon theory does make sense but I would pursue Puppy over GammaGooey here.

@VP Baltar: where does Puppy’s LAMIST post compare with mine?

Which feels even more off by mavs immediately proceeding to switch off votato and onto me at the first opportunity, without gamma even answering the question yet btw.

Actually at the 0th opportunity, this offhand joking remark by votato is apparently enough for mavs to be satisfied with how unsure he was with sorting votato just a few posts earlier

gamma: 25 posts
blair: 214 posts

and yet i still feel like gamma has had a more significant positive impact on the game.

This really rubs me the wrong way, given that it was at a time when Blair was having a hard time getting the wagon going.

at this point do we need L-1? its time for gamma to claim.

But now this feels better to me. I do agree with others that he was vote hopping a lot yesterday (onto people who weren't gamma I might add until the very end), but it also seemed to come from a position of legitimate uncertainty, so I think I'm overall neutral here

ok, i'm all caught up, i didn't see the stuff about roles and claims until the end

not sure there's much i can add, one of blair/gamma is scum, i've been townreading blair most of the game and will probably side that way

Saying this where you could've added a vote it just kind of baffles me that town would do that, but at the same time would be such a blatant misplay for scum to do that I can't really bring myself to scumread it either

Overall, I think pushing Mavs is the way to go VOTE: mavsfan41

[mavsfan41]

For various reasons, I think scum is EXCLUSIVELY within these spots:
Dunnstral
Hellbrooks
VP Baltar
puppy
Quick

Dunnstral

he was the first to hop onto the Gamma lynch right after Blair. I don’t think he has the grapes to bus his partner that early, but I’m not sure. So for now, he’s town in my book.

VP Baltar

he seems to actually be helping town out and trying to figure things out. Town read here. (And for what it’s worth, early game he asked for what abbreviations meant where if he was in a private chat, wouldn’t have done that? Sure, flimsy, but no reason real good reason why I think he’s scum).

As for the others....

Quick

he is almost impossible to read. He’s done massively scummy things but also pro town. His case on R2R I think is super hard to fake.

Puppy

he appeared to double down sorta on Gamma AFTER the hammer. I read Gamma as town as well, so I could see this.

And.....

hellbrooks

I think puppy/Quick, one is scum. I can’t see them both being scum. Hellbrooks of the Ayers I’ve narrowed down strikes me as most likely scum. He hasn’t offered much.

VOTE: hellbrooks

[mavsfan41]

Fucking auto correct.... *players I’ve narrowed down

[Quick]

Am I wrong in assuming there should be some sort of protective role with a Strongman? Not sure why Blair wasn't protected unless all we have is a JK.

[votato]

so you townread some of the people in your PoE? why has everyone else been excluded?