Micro 941 | Brass and Shrapnel | Mafia PT

[Datisi]

Fuck i need to do math brb

[Datisi]

enomis - vig
koba - vig
ceejay - vig
holden - bomb

setup (a) - 25% chance of 3 Vigs (50% Blank Vig) and 4 town roles (50/50% Bomb or Supersaint)
setup (b) - 50% chance of 4 Vigs (50% Blank Vig) and 3 town roles (50/50% Bomb or Supersaint)
setup (c) - 25% chance of 5 Vigs (50% Blank Vig) and 2 town roles (50/50% Bomb or Supersaint)

3 town alive
(a) - 3 nonvig
(b) - 1 vig 2nonvig
(c) - 2 vig 1 nonvig

ok first of all holden is an obvious scum kill DO NOT CLAIM THAT

depending on who did koba/ceejay shoot there could be conftowns today
maybe not yeah not okay
uhhhhh
holy hell

now what

if there is a bomb in town we need to lynch them lmao

also i see kilga is voting for you fuck

[Tuxedo Mask]

Oh boy, okay. Jeez. If it's Lylo, I think you guys should try and push my lynch and go for the win with that. Maybe.

[Datisi]

nahh, we're not pushing anything until ico's over
also i'd prefer to not bus because this isn't basic lylo

if there's another bomb then we *have* to get them lynched otherwise we draw at best

if there's one vig and 2 supersaints we can win even if we hammer one ss my blocking the vig and killing him the next night

[Tuxedo Mask]

Okay, I just don't know how I'm getting out of this. Should I post or wait on you guys?

[Datisi]

you can post if you want, there probably won't be that much action that soon anyway

i'm gonna hold off from posting for now, if i do it's gonna be a prodge since i never reread during the night as town anyway

[Datisi]

hmmm hoctac either shot us and is blank or he's a non-vig

[Datisi]

this is still gonna be pretty hairy i think

[Datisi]

actually claiming to have shot holden would be a meme since you'd be claiming blank vig

not saying you should do that just saying it would be funney

[Tuxedo Mask]

I think I'll claim nonvig if that's okay. Also, I really think we should push each other today. I do think its our best option. Idk, maybe we could mislynch on Kilga with Penguin but that seems unlikely.

[Datisi]

considering there's 3 flipped vigilantes we can actually claim any combination other than vig+vig without conftowning anyone

we either claim vig+nonvig or nonvig+nonvig

i'm not sure if any if more advantageous tbh

pedit: we were tring each other last phase, that would have to be convincing with trajectories and whatnot
and i'm not sure if we can turn as easily as you think, town often expects bussing

deadass thinking to claim nonvig too for the memes

[Tuxedo Mask]

That's fair, I'm just thinking about the way things shook out yesterday. Hoctac + Kilga doesn't work...and fuck. Okay, I gotta reread and think things over. Man, this set up is stressful. I think I'll claim nonvig. I know its scummy, but it's easier and I don't know if I wanna deal with who I shot.

[Datisi]

I mean last round both scum claimed vig so lol

Our plan is i think always to try to mislynch some of the nonvig claims

[Tuxedo Mask]

Okay, but it looks like Penguin is sus of Kilga. I think we could make something work there.

[Datisi]

We could, yeah. I'm just talking from a mech standpoint. If there's a bomb, even if we achieve parity, it's still a draw.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Right. Ugh, I'm stressed. Really didn't expect those shots. Maybe we could get Penguin to hammer? Seems hella unlikely though.

[Datisi]

I think our odds are still pretty decent even if we quickhammer a supersaint today... Block a vig, shoot elsewhere and pray no bombs lmao

Alternatively hope vig shoots a bomb but that might be unlikely idk hard to tell for now

[Datisi]

tl;dr mech post for ico:

we cannot claim vig+vig.

we can claim anything else and town won't have any clears.
since tuxedo will be claiming nonvig, our slot can claim either vig or nonvig

actually i just noticed the table in 380 still applies lemme work this out real quick

so if tux is claiming nonvig right:

in (a) we can claim either freely without doing The Split
in (b) if we claim nonvig we do The Split (i.e. we confirm at least one of the nonvig claims is scum, but i don't think that matters actually since 4 out of 5 alive people are in that pool, yeah)
in (c) if we claim vig we do The Split (i.e. we confirm that at least one of nonvig claims is town, that conftowns the nonvig if tux flips, actually that is bad)

ok logically we should be also claiming nonvig

ico if you have to claim

not vig

ok thank you

[Datisi]

the only problem is if town realizes that it is mechanically optimal for scum to both claim nonvig here but i don't have that much faith in the mech knowledge of the town tbh?

[Datisi]

and even if they did realize that, the "ok but why are you sure scum would be able to work that out" is enough to fill them with paranoia. hopefully.

[Datisi]

the hell is PP getting at i wonder

[Tuxedo Mask]

Do you think PP is vig?

[Datisi]

i thought he was a bomb confident he won't get shot or something but it seems like he just miscounted the number of people alive lmao

[Tuxedo Mask]

I'm also dumb. What are we claiming? Is it still okay if I nonvig?

[Datisi]

Yes that is mechanically optimal we both claim nomvig I'm pretty sure

The reasons why it would be a fuckup in setup (a) and a slight fuckup in setup (b) are no longer valid