Micro 941 | Brass and Shrapnel | Game Over!

[Night 3 Roses]

hoc >> PP > kilga ig

-D

[PenguinPower]

Tux > Roses > Hoctac/Kilga if I cared enough to make an order.

[Tuxedo Mask]

I think Kilga should go after me. It's weird they just seem to get to go last by virtue of making the list. I don't like Roses defending it either.

Non-vig.

[Hoctac]

Hoctac: Rose > Penpow > Kilga

Roses: Hoctac > Penpow > Kilga

Tux: Kilga > ??? > ??? > ???

[Hoctac]

Penpow: Roses > Hoctac/Kilga

[Hoctac]

Roses, I think you might be up.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Tux: Kilga > ??? > ??? > ???

I guess Kilga > Roses > Hoctac > and Penguin

[Night 3 Roses]

thank fucc

non-vig

ginte

-D

[Hoctac]

I think that's me next. Claiming vig.

[Hoctac]

Penpow and then Kilga it looks like. Keep them coming quickly. Less time to think.

[PenguinPower]

not-vig

[PenguinPower]

Should probably claim your shot then for the same reasoning.

[Hoctac]

Should be obvious. I shot Roses. So 50% I'm a blank, 50% they're scum.

[Kilgamayan]

Non-vig here. Part of me regrets not RPing as Alte in this game but it was probably for the best anyway.

[Kilgamayan]

Oh hey, double-checking the rules, that's one too many non-vig claims. Makes me feel a bit better about Hoctac without thinking about it too hard.

[PenguinPower]

It is one too many, but scum could still split claims.

This process hasn't really done much for me.

[Kilgamayan]

Bluh, rubbing two more brain cells together made me realize that yeah Hoctac's claim being the only vig claim is NAI since it was completely safe fakeclaim at that point.

Urgh I cannot brain this afternoon for the life of me.

[Hoctac]

Weird. I want to give Kilga towncred for claiming the 4th non-vig, but I think scum!him would be aware that it'd look good to claim it, so it's probably NAI. I'm surprised scum didn't opt to claim vig and claim a kill on Dk, that could've been a psuedo clear of sorts.

[Hoctac]

So now we pretty much know for a fact that ceejay killed Holden, and Dk was killed by scum? This makes no sense to me.

[Kilgamayan]

Sorry for disappearing for a while there, mushbrain has continued well into the night and I will probably not be useful for further investigations until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. I can at least put a little bit of less mindful stuff out this evening, though.

A slight correction to myself; When I said Hoctac's vig claim was a completely safe fakeclaim, I had accidentally swapped the order of Hoctac's claim and PP's claim in my head, so no, it technically wasn't a completely safe fakeclaim at that point. Really, though, the more I thought about it, them more I realized that trying to divine anything from the roleclaims is largely an exercise in futility, and in retrospect was likely to be such no matter the order we chose. At best, I think scum would be more likely to fakeclaim nonvig as the first claim of the day given we have three vigs flips, but that by itself doesn't prove Tuxedo is scum or anything like that.

---

So now we pretty much know for a fact that ceejay killed Holden, and Dk was killed by scum? This makes no sense to me.

I dunno, it seems reasonable to me. Koba was loud and brash and going to be a very difficult mislynch after that hammer vote, and ceejay had misgivings about Holden earlier on Day 1. He did eventually warm to Holden over the course of the day, but Holden's enomis vote was pretty gursh-durn bad when analyzed after the fact, and it wouldn't surprise me if ceejay never truly took his eye off of Holden.

---

@Tuxedo Mask: I will admit that the "why are you townreading six people and scumreading two people who hate each other and not bothering to try to reconcile this" by itself would not serve as a good case by itself. It is better thought of as a lesser supporting argument to the main overall accusation of "you don't actually care about your votes or who gets lynched".

Also, CJ didn't come back till near the end of the deadline, there wasn't exactly the time to completely move the Enomis wagon over at that time.

This, however, is observably false. Checking back to 719, which was posted with about 12 hours to go in the day, the vote count was as follows:

ceejayvinoya (3): Tuxedo Mask, Hoctac, enomis
Hoctac (3): Kilgamayan: Night 3 Roses, HoldenGolden
DkKoba (1): PenguinPower

No Vote: ceejayvinoya, DkKoba

From there:

* Hoctac unvoted ceejay in 717 because of the presumed incoming replacement (they mention in 706 that they "Still prefer ceejay" to Koba)
* I switch from Hoctac to enomis in 728 (11.5 hrs to deadline)
* You switch from ceejay to enomis in 730 because of the presumed incoming replacement
* Koba votes ceejay in 779 (8.5 hrs to deadline); ceejay reappears in the very next post
* ceejay votes enomis in 796
* Holden switches from Hoctac to enomis in 797 (7 hrs to deadline)

Now the votecount looks like this, with about 7 hours to go:

ceejayvinoya (2): enomis, DkKoba
Hoctac (1): Night 3 Roses
DkKoba (2): PenguinPower, Hoctac
enomis (4): Kilgamayan, Tuxedo Mask, ceejayvinoya, HoldenGolden

Sure, enomis is in the lead, and PP has expressed willingness to compromise on enomis a few hours later if need be (794).

But!

* 7 hours is still plenty of time left in a day to change a lynch, particularly in a 9-player setting. I've seen lynches change far faster than that in larger settings.
* enomis went from 0 to 4 in the span of 4.5 hours. Surely ceejay could go from 2 to 5 in the span of 7 hours.
* In fact, two people in that seven-hours-left vote count who are not voting for ceejay preferred (allegedly) to vote ceejay but moved away because of the potential replacement. Once ceejay started posting again, that was clearly not going to happen. If those people had moved back to ceejay once they saw he was posting again, the vote count would have looked like this:

ceejayvinoya (4): enomis, DkKoba, Hoctac, Tuxedo Mask
Hoctac (1): Night 3 Roses
DkKoba (1): PenguinPower
enomis (3): Kilgamayan, ceejayvinoya, HoldenGolden

With about 7 hours left to go, there would have been pleeeenty of time to find a fifth ceejay vote. Given you publicly preferred a ceejay vote to an enomis vote (because why else would you have been voting ceejay and not enomis before the potential replacement comment was made?), I believe Town Tuxedo would have seen ceejay come back and either switched back to ceejay or made an effort to explain why his vote was going to remain on enomis. You offered neither of these things despite having time to funpost (802). This is primarily why I think you did not actually care who you were voting for or who got lynched, and thus why I think you are scum.

[Night 3 Roses]

Without having thorougly read back yet and from the top of my head

I townread the Tux after that 1v1 with DKkoba on D1. Hoctac should have been lynched imo. And right before I left, I thought the train was headed to Lynchville there. What happened exactly? I remember townreading Kilga and PP repped in.

[Night 3 Roses]

ok be with me for a sec here guys, i've just started my first coffee so if i've missed stuff let me know

Kilga, how and where did you go from scumreading and voting hoctac to voting eonois and now not even mentioning hoctac in your big post?

Spoiler:

@Tuxedo: Framing my vote as being "parked" is pretty disingenuous on your part, honestly. Nothing Hoctac has done has made me want to change it; see 515, which quotes my major problem with Hoctac's Koba vote. There has been no movement to my vote because Hoctac went a while without posting, and then defended against OMGUS charges while ignoring my major issue stated in 389 (which is quoted in 515). Note that this approach to defense, delaying and then ignoring/misdirecting, is also a scummy act.

---

A restatement of my issue with Hoctac, for (hopefully) full clarity

Koba voted Hoctac in 207, and Hoctac turned around and voted Koba in 208. An argument can be had over how scummy OMGUS is, or if it is even scummy or not, but that is a discussion for another time. The important thing to look at here is Hoctac's vote reason: "For a pillow push and changing their warrant once questioned." This is later expanded upon in 214 with "Additionally, they implied they disliked Holden's defensiveness, yet switched their vote to me too quickly, indicating they were unhappy with pursuing that push since it was drawing questions into their alignment and motives", and in 240, Hoctac adds that "My vote has nothing to do with your vote on me specifically."

Why is this scummy?

This is discussed in my 389, but for the sake of clarify, I'll explain again.

* Hoctac posts and is engaged with the game in 178.
* Koba unvotes Holden in 186.
* N3R unvotes clidd (an RVS vote) and votes ceejay in 197.
* Hoctac questions N3R's 197 unvote in 198.

Hoctac is at least someone active and engaged with the game in this interval of time, because 178 and 198 are both game-engaged posts. Hoctac is also keeping track of unvotes, as evidenced in 198 by questioning N3R's unvote.

The kicker here is that no effort whatsoever is made to engage with Koba over Koba's unvote, despite Hoctac clearly paying attention unvotes. No voting for or questioning of Koba whatsoever. If the vote and justification in 208 and the further elaborations in 214 and 240 were genuinely what TownHoctac thought, then Hoctac would have made an effort to engage with Koba over Koba's 186 unvote in 198, if not sooner.

As no effort was made in that interval of posts, it is simple to conclude that Hoctac's Koba vote and reasoning was not genuine, and as such Hoctac is scum.

---

If Hoctac is somehow telling the truth then I will look elsewhere, but there is no way to know this until Hoctac flips, so this is a rather pointless question at this juncture.

Bluhhhhh actually the more I dwell on it the more I want to do this. WAGON DECONSOLIDATION WITH LESS THAN 12 HOURS LET'S GO

UNVOTE: Hoctac
VOTE: enomis

The more I think about the multiple instances of "hey everyone let's lynch ceejay" without any effort to explain

why

we should vote for ceejay (not even in the original ceejay vote) the more I dislike it. I also was not impressed by our exchange related to hammer votes, which makes me feel even better about this, but the reasonless vote and continued enthusiastic pushes are really bad.

Overnight thoughts. Can't wait for one or more of these people to have died and made me look stupid with their flips!

The enomis train

---

Kilgamayan

- Well, I know I'm town.

Tuxedo Mask

- Bluh. Had previously expression suspicion of enomis in 553, but (a) it seems to come about largely as a result of PoE (the post also lists Holden, N3R, Hoctac, Clidd, and myself in the Town section), and (b) it comes right alongside a suspicion of ceejay. (This is going to get PbP-ish, but I promise it's going somewhere.) Changes vote to ceejay in 558, but proceeds to question me in 562 about why I don't like ceejay and enomis, as well as I why I dislike ceejay more at the time, and then also questions enomis in 576 about "why CJ over Hoctac", despite having his own vote on ceejay at the time. The kicker than comes in 730, with a statement about thinking Hoctac and Koba are down while switching his vote to enomis on the grounds that ceejay may be getting replaced. The problem with all this? Between 553 and 730, Tuxedo Mask has town reads on everyone but ceejay and enomis and is willing to vote either of them, but does not appear to ever make an effort to reconcile these with the fact that ceejay and enomis actively dislike each other (and have actively disliked each other for a while, including enomis voting for ceejay). I feel like Town Tuxedo would want to stop and rethink given he is town reading six players and scum reading two players in a two-scum game while those two scumreads were actively hostile toward each other and had been hostile toward each other for a while. I also feel like (a) questioning people over why they would prefer to vote ceejay over other people while he himself is voting ceejay, and (b) changing his vote from ceejay to a person voting ceejay that ceejay thinks is scum means Tuxedo doesn't really care that much about the implications of his scumreads.

(Also worth noting that Tuxedo Mask leaves his vote on enomis even after ceejay starts posting again, which makes it clear that ceejay is not getting a replacement, which eliminates the reason for switching to enomis in 730. Koba had just voted ceejay in 778 as well before ceejay started posting again, so a ceejay lynch was definitely viable at that point.)

ceejayvinoya

- Vote seems reasonable to me; even with his limited post volume, ceejay had been displeased with and poking at enomis for most of the day. Perfectly logical vote for a Town ceejay.

HoldenGolden

- Noooooot great. 568 mentions a preference to have enomis hammer the day's lynch "for reasons I'm about to post", but those reasons are never actually posted, and his 573 reread of enomis's ISO results in concluding that it "isn't nearly as bad as I thought I saw". He briefly engages with enomis about the hammering discussion/issue in 635, but the wording doesn't seem to imply "I think you are scummy for thinking this way", and then Holden doesn't mention enomis again until the vote despite having plenty of time to engage in the PP/Koba argument.

DkKoba

- I'm feeling pretty good about TownKoba given ScumKoba would have known enomis was town and therefore could have very safely and easily let PP hammer enomis instead as PP said he would do. Jumping in to hammer a possible SuperSaint when there was stated intent to hammer from elsewhere just seems so needlessly risky for little-to-no benefit.

---

tl;dr

ceejay's vote is null at worst

,

Koba's vote looks town

, Tuxedo's

and Holden's

votes look scummy. VOTE: Tuxedo Mask because I think his vote is somewhat worse than Holden's,

but they're both pretty bad and I wouldn't be sad to see Holden get lynched instead

.

(None of this is to say ceejay is definitely town, of course.)

Wow, didn't expect the night to take out THAT much of the enomis lynch. Makes me feel better about my Tuxedo vote, though!

I think Tux came out very well in the 1v1 with DKkoba, and I haven't seen much to change that. I don't really see much of an actual case in your post here either, other then his reason for voting eonis but frankly I'm really questioning your motivation for that as well. So why did YOU push him?

Hoctac + kilga? Need to revisit why I was townreading Kilga in the first place

[Night 3 Roses]

Tux, what's your reads at right now? I reread your readslist from a while back, would like an update

[Night 3 Roses]

I mean - I think it's interesting that Dk was the leading wagon and now we're sitting between Hoctac and ceejay as counterwagons with no Dk wagon existing.

That's why I'm looking for reasons as to why people unvoted. Saying that it isn't possible to get a wagon on Dk is not accurate.

with both Dk and CJ flipping town, how likely do you think hoctac is still town? That wagon dissapeared quietely, and I can't even pinpoint what actually happened that dismantled this wagon. I feel it's between you and Kilga + hoctac as the team here.

No - we're at like 12 hours left with competing wagons on Hoctac and Ceejay, but I prefer Dk, especially for their horrible posting over the past two pages, and others are willing to join if we can get 5.

how is hoctac NOT a good lynch? I already spent time and effort in explaining why I townread both DK and the Tux

Dk is a much better lynch than ceejay at this point. Come on Hoctac.

Don't make me bat my beautiful penguin eyes.

what has hoctac done to deserve a townread?

Hoctac is Town.

Seriously, what?

[Night 3 Roses]

But!* 7 hours is still plenty of time left in a day to change a lynch, particularly in a 9-player setting. I've seen lynches change far faster than that in larger settings.* enomis went from 0 to 4 in the span of 4.5 hours. Surely ceejay could go from 2 to 5 in the span of 7 hours.* In fact, two people in that seven-hours-left vote count who are not voting for ceejay preferred (allegedly) to vote ceejay but moved away because of the potential replacement. Once ceejay started posting again, that was clearly not going to happen. If those people had moved back to ceejay once they saw he was posting again, the vote count would have looked like this:ceejayvinoya (4): enomis, DkKoba, Hoctac, Tuxedo MaskHoctac (1): Night 3 RosesDkKoba (1): PenguinPowerenomis (3): Kilgamayan, ceejayvinoya, HoldenGoldenWith about 7 hours left to go, there would have been pleeeenty of time to find a fifth ceejay vote. Given you publicly preferred a ceejay vote to an enomis vote (because why else would you have been voting ceejay and not enomis before the potential replacement comment was made?), I believe Town Tuxedo would have seen ceejay come back and either switched back to ceejay or made an effort to explain why his vote was going to remain on enomis. You offered neither of these things despite having time to funpost (802). This is primarily why I think you did not actually care who you were voting for or who got lynched, and thus why I think you are scum.

All of this is just a really bad angle to use as a scumread, ever. Especially with both PP claiming not being here at deadline and me in my usual weekend VLA. Would it have been possible? Sure. Maybe. Who knows. But what is scum!indicative of Tux for saying that?