Newbie 2004: Trash Panada Hour. Redux! GAME OVER


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Post Post #2025 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:32 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

I'd rather not say too much more in terms of justification - we just do it, and then can do a post mortem afterwards once scum have been forced to commit and we can see how the land lies.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2026 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:32 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 2017, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 1984, BBmolla wrote:Dude honestly it's probably just Dunnstral/Tuxedo, Tuxedo's posts are nonsense
VOTE: Tuxedo

We will avenge you BBMolla! And, uncharacteristically, I'll stand by my promise of yesterday.
why the f would you scumread these two and not vote the one who lolhammered yesterday

and then propose outing the PR(s) for no reason?!
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Post Post #2027 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:33 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

Nauci, I'm not even gonna bother asking what the fk you're doing lol
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2028 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:34 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

Hopefully there's a consensus for the correct strategic play today in a newbie game filled with experienced players.

I'll re-post the claim order in a sec
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2029 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:34 pm

Post by Aloratom »

I'm considering Nauci's proposition, but I'd like Battle Mage to explain the logic behind mass claiming.
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Post Post #2030 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:36 pm

Post by Nauci »

Votato was the only slot that Lilith really pushed the whole game so that's even more evidence that Aloratom is conftown.
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Post Post #2031 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:37 pm

Post by Aloratom »

In post 2021, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2020, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2019, Battle Mage wrote:I will suggest the following claim order:

Tuxedo mask
Dunnstral
Nausi
Blair
Aloratom
Battle Mage
slight change, we're gonna go:

Tuxedo mask
Blair
Dunnstral
Nausi
Aloratom
Battle Mage
That's fine with me.
Better yet, maybe Dunnstral can explain why mass claiming is the right play here.
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Post Post #2032 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:39 pm

Post by Nauci »

BM are you asking blair to claim because you're disregarding Freddie's claim? If so, why?
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Post Post #2033 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:39 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

I can go and dig out Mith's rationale, because I had same situation recently in a game with him (I was scum in that one, he was town) and he decided that the correct play was to massclaim and then make a call about whether to No-Lynch or not. Always do what Mith says.

For my own view, I think it's mainly just about getting all the info we can. Given the situation we're in, a massclaim should be quite revealing and allow us to narrow down scum because the game is semi-open setup, and there should be some info from claimed PRs, we might get counter-claims, or conf-towns etc. Additionally we could get info from the NK if we no-lynch, although it would be WIFOMy. In other words, we won't just be screaming into the darkness like Nauci lol
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2034 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:40 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2032, Nauci wrote:BM are you asking blair to claim because you're disregarding Freddie's claim? If so, why?
Ah no I just forgot Freddie had claimed. Although you shouldn't have said that - she might have claimed something different! :lol:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2035 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:41 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

Speculating about reads at this stage is super unhelpful. We need to get to claiming first, and then we'll have some actual concrete shit to talk about.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2036 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:45 pm

Post by Nauci »

I don't usually game theory this kind of thing, but I feel like the logical route here is for TPR to claim only if they have successfully detected scum

It is OUTRIGHT BS for you to say I'm screaming into the darkness; I'm sure you have at least one functioning eye with which to read my case

PEdit: It's utterly ridiculous that a player as experienced as Blair would just casually forget as huge of an event as that. It's more telling about YOU that you could forget an event that like 1/3 of the pages of this game discussed.

PEdit2: HOW IS THAT SCUMMY QUICKHAMMER NOT ACTUAL CONCRETE SHIT TO TALK ABOUT
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Post Post #2037 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:50 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

Jeez dude, it was a long night phase, I've got a lot of games, gimme a break!

everyone should claim, not just TPR, any info we get on setup is helpful, and order is crucial - if scum have to claim first (which depends on my judgement in this case) we have best chance they do something dumb which essentially outs themselves, or conftown's somebody else.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2038 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:50 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

I literally can't believe I have to explain this to you...
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2039 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:52 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 2037, Battle Mage wrote:it was a long night phase
lol it was literally ended like 5+ hours early
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Post Post #2040 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:56 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 2031, Aloratom wrote:
In post 2021, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2020, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2019, Battle Mage wrote:I will suggest the following claim order:

Tuxedo mask
Dunnstral
Nausi
Blair
Aloratom
Battle Mage
slight change, we're gonna go:

Tuxedo mask
Blair
Dunnstral
Nausi
Aloratom
Battle Mage
That's fine with me.
Better yet, maybe Dunnstral can explain why mass claiming is the right play here.
I mean, I have an explanation
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Post Post #2041 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:56 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

I'll do whatever town decides is best. Nauci you should unvote. You might be right but it's an unnecessary risk in Lylo. I don't think I trust BM's push.
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Post Post #2042 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:59 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2041, Tuxedo Mask wrote:I'll do whatever town decides is best. Nauci you should unvote. You might be right but it's an unnecessary risk in Lylo. I don't think I trust BM's push.
This is pretty weak. "I'll do whatever town decides is best", in a game where you'd assume 2/5 other players would be scum, sounds a bit more like "I'll claim first if you absolutely force me to".

You are definitely top of my lynchpile at the moment, but a good claim might spare you.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2043 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2024, Nauci wrote:I'm defining lolhammering/quickhammering as making the final vote before A: declaring intent to do so and waiting for the claim, and B: not allowing town a reasonable amount of time for discussion when there's more than like 6 hours to deadline. Dug through a buttload of Dunnstral's games from the last year or so. I omitted games with special setups since I don't have the time to figure those out and it would change the dynamic, and micro games. Here's mostly mini and large normals and a few newbie games.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11467331

Dunnstral Town
, survived 5 days,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=81317

Dunnstral Town
, survived 6 days,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=81560

Dunnstral Town
, Lynched Day 2,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=80463

Dunnstral Town
, Killed Night 2,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=81655

Dunnstral Town, Lynched Day 1

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11487994

Dunnstral Mafia Goon
, Survived 4 days, basically
lolhammered Day 3
(https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11487994), lolhammered Day 4 but that doesn't count because that's scum victory

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81319

Dunnstral Town
, Survived 3 Days,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... start=1675

Dunnstral Town
, Survived 3 days with Mafia victory,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=80601

Dunnstral Mafia Goon,
Lynched Day 2,
lolhammered Day 1
(https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11204586)

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=80492

Dunnstral Town
, Survived 3 days (Mafia Wins),
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=80162

Dunnstral Town
, Lynched Day 1, obviously
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=80296

Dunnstral Mafia
, Won with Mafia,
did not lolhammer

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=80455

Dunnstral Town
, Lynched Day 1,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=80327

Dunnstral Town
, Lynched Day 2,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=80044

Dunnstral Town
, Survived 3 days (town victory),
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=79944

Dunnstral Town
, Killed Night 3,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=78822

Before I get to the Dunnstral analysis, this game looks like it was WILD. Boonskies/Flavor leaf on Mafia, 144 pages for a Mini Normal, fake miller claim that got FL past a friggin investigation guilty. We should all skim this sometime because :popcorn:

Dunnstral town
, replaced in Day 3, killed Night 3,
no lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=78471

Dunnstral Mafia
, Survived 5 days to win,
did not lolhammer
except for final mafia victory vote

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=79079

Dunnstral Town
, Killed Night 3,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=77413

Dunnstral Mafia
, Lynched Day 6? There's some weird mechanics I'm not bothering to read.
Did not lolhammer.


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=79344

Dunnstral Town
, Lynched Day 2,
did not lolhammer


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=78440

Dunnstral Town
, Died Night 3,
Did not lolhammer


===

I stopped looking at that point because there were several non-normal games and I had enough. Didn't find an instance of Dunnstral quickhammering as town, and I'm not sure if I ever even saw an instance of town!Dunnstral hammering as town period.

I swear that I had a few games with him back when I played in 2017 ish but apparently my memory is shit because I only found 1 game of mine where he was scum and he didn't get a chance to quickhammer because scum was lynched day 1 and he was lynched day 2. It's possible that I was mixing him up with Not_Mafia's ridiculous quickhammering? I don't think it matters because the above is sufficient.

VOTE: Dunnstral Who's your partner bruv?

I'm so dead ass confident about this one I think we should lynch even though it's MYLO.
HAHAHAHAHA





Wait, you're serious?

Sorry - you wasted your time
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Post Post #2044 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:01 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2031, Aloratom wrote:
In post 2021, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2020, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2019, Battle Mage wrote:I will suggest the following claim order:

Tuxedo mask
Dunnstral
Nausi
Blair
Aloratom
Battle Mage
slight change, we're gonna go:

Tuxedo mask
Blair
Dunnstral
Nausi
Aloratom
Battle Mage
That's fine with me.
Better yet, maybe Dunnstral can explain why mass claiming is the right play here.
Because it's mylo
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Post Post #2045 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:04 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

big thumbs up to you. what do you think of Tux trying to dodge it?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2046 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:06 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

It looks like they're saying they'll claim if people agree to it - I don't read that as dodging
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Post Post #2047 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:10 pm

Post by Tuxedo Mask »

In post 2042, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2041, Tuxedo Mask wrote:I'll do whatever town decides is best. Nauci you should unvote. You might be right but it's an unnecessary risk in Lylo. I don't think I trust BM's push.
This is pretty weak. "I'll do whatever town decides is best", in a game where you'd assume 2/5 other players would be scum, sounds a bit more like "I'll claim first if you absolutely force me to".

You are definitely top of my lynchpile at the moment, but a good claim might spare you.
If I'm scum and not taking place in the mass claim discussion, because guess what, I actually don't know the best course of action. Do you think my partner arguing with 4 townies is going to reach make them reach the wrong choice? Really? You think it's better for me as town to just roll over and do what you say because you're threatening me?

Not to mention yesterday you though I had good points for scum reading Gibus. Then BB shades me without even explaining why and that's enough to completely flip on me? Yeah, you made an agreement to lynch Dunstral or me if Gibus got lynched, but since I know my alignment I know that agreement is just lining up mislynches.
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Post Post #2048 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:11 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2046, Dunnstral wrote:It looks like they're saying they'll claim if people agree to it - I don't read that as dodging
if he's town, 40% of the other players are scum (if my maths is right!). In that scenario, sorry but I don't give a crap about getting a consensus. I just do what I think is the right thing. I'd have been much more sympathetic if he took a braver line of "I will claim but don't want to claim first" or something more open. Instead, creeping into the shadows but not actually challenging anything for himself, not a good look. If town isn't strong in this situation, probably game over.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2049 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:16 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2047, Tuxedo Mask wrote:
In post 2042, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2041, Tuxedo Mask wrote:I'll do whatever town decides is best. Nauci you should unvote. You might be right but it's an unnecessary risk in Lylo. I don't think I trust BM's push.
This is pretty weak. "I'll do whatever town decides is best", in a game where you'd assume 2/5 other players would be scum, sounds a bit more like "I'll claim first if you absolutely force me to".

You are definitely top of my lynchpile at the moment, but a good claim might spare you.
If I'm scum and not taking place in the mass claim discussion, because guess what, I actually don't know the best course of action. Do you think my partner arguing with 4 townies is going to reach make them reach the wrong choice? Really? You think it's better for me as town to just roll over and do what you say because you're threatening me?

Not to mention yesterday you though I had good points for scum reading Gibus. Then BB shades me without even explaining why and that's enough to completely flip on me? Yeah, you made an agreement to lynch Dunstral or me if Gibus got lynched, but since I know my alignment I know that agreement is just lining up mislynches.
I'm not committed to lynching you, although you don't get any more cred than I do for scum reading Gibus given he FLIPPED TOWN.

BBMolla is a top top player, and yet the fact he was killed is odd, given he was looking scummy yesterday and could have been a good mislynch option today. So I'm kinda assuming at LyLo there is a chance that scum just wanted to get rid of the guy who was definitely onto them (and also, they might have had him pegged as a PR or something). So yeah, you being scum makes some sense.

In terms of the massclaim, I think the line you took was weak, and did in fact, roll over as you put it. You didn't argue with me...you just sorta wilted and left it to the whim of a town which is nearly 50% scum anyway. You could easily have argued over the order if you were town (as it would be best to have scum claim first). However you picked the worst of both worlds by not claiming but also not resisting the order particularly.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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