Mini Theme 2145: The Weakest Link Game over

[Dunnstral]

i cant believe this terrible bullshit. We need to lynch midway, farside, starbuck. STARTING WITH STARBUCK

We start with midway

Midway wasn't a part of the failed quiz

[Pink Ball]

I like your stance about Raya. We could work on that too. I still think midway is the scummiest player of the playerlist. I get we have a lynchpool inside the team who took the quiz.

[Dunnstral]

now they can block all the next PRs we get. wtf

What do you mean? Why are you assuming the joat has a roleblocker?

[Albert B. Rampage]

JOAT always has one of JK/RB/commuter/etc.

[Dunnstral]

That's not true to my knowledge

[springlullaby]

Ok, you guys are forgetting ABR is scum here.

The density of post, and the exact same pattern of unsubstantiated bullshit is what makes him scum.

So abr, you say that I was the worst leader: what would you have done differently?

[Dunnstral]

I don't think ABR has a read progression on me that makes sense. On day 1 they call me scum for basically no reason at all that I can see, now when the quiz has failed (I was on the team) it's Farside/Starbuck instead?

[farside22]

I appreciate the concern but as someone apart of the fail quiz you should start telling me who you think is the most likely.

Im torn between spring and dunn on who i was scum reading in that thread.
Spring asked questions about things that i thought were obvious given the game. Dunn didn't say much about any suspicion on raya in the pt.
I can tell you one thing for sure. Dont give the chain to abr.

Honestly I just want to make sure everyone actually submitted "Pass" before we move to the next step lmao.

^ This is serious I want people to verify they submitted pass to the mod.

Pm mod pass.
Had discussion in PT. Pt stayed open all night.
Also i thought the person who was BP was the chainleader (spring) and unwnd is BP tonight.

Did you check with the mod if unwnds ability would work with you in there for the quiz?

[farside22]

The biggest thing I like do is go a bit into wagonmics, especially after a mislynch

Proposed Team(5)-

Springlullaby

,

farside

,

Starbuck

,

Raya36

,

Dunnstral

Here's our team

springlullaby(12)-

springlullaby

>Albert B. Rampage>midwaybear>

Dunnstral

>NDmath>

farside22

>

Starbuck

>

Raya36

>beeboy>TrueSoulEnergy>Pink Ball>unwnd

Here's our chain

--

Right now there's a discrepancy with the chain formation and the team as well. You have Farside>Starbuck>Raya all passing the chain in succession of one another. Unless the quiz team was just terribly misguided, I'm just going to say it's unlikely that those 3 comprise of a team, rather one of them. I think that is still however possible that more than one scum could be on a team however, but I don't know if that's necessarily true of the team last night.

We were told to pass the chain in that order.

Hmm just saw the post from the mod about chainleader.
No one said anything about it in the PT last night. Someone asked the mod apparently about it.

[farside22]

Oh and raya thought the back and forth discussion between spring and star was tvt.
There was 5 pages of talk.
I maybe forgetting something but im too tired to think of anything else.

[springlullaby]

A quick numbers rundown now we know more about the setup.

Day --P----T---S------ QT --------- Chance of hitting scum on first link ----------------------
D1: 13 - 10 -3 ----- 5 --------------------- 30.00%------------------------------------------
D2: 12 - 9 - 3 ----- 4 ---------------------- 33.33% -----------------------------------------
D3: 10 - 7 - 3 ------ 3 ---------------------- 42.85% ----------------------------------------
D4: 8 - 5 - 3 ---- 2 -- Lylo -------------- 60.00% -----------------------------------------
D5: 6 - 3 - 3 ---- Town lose

I'm assuming unwnd is not lying about the quiz team size, so it means it's - 1 player on QT by for +1 day.
Assuming both beeboy and unwnd are town, it means the QT is technically guaranteed on D4.

Is it worth it to obvtown 2 players for that? Well, it's simple, if any of them is scum we are screwed.

BUT, given how the numbers are stacked against town if we assume possible nk, I think there is a very high chance that scum simply doesn't have a nk.
So the scenario goes more like that (I reflected the quiz loss as a potential nk for today):

Day --P----T---S------ QT --------- Chance of hitting scum on first link ----------------------
D1: 13 - 10 -3 ----- 5 --------------------- 30.00%------------------------------------------
D2: 12 - 9 - 3 ----- 4 ---------------------- 33.33% -----------------------------------------
D3: 10 - 7 - 3 ------ 3 ---------------------- 42.85% ----------------------------------------
D4: 9 - 6 - 3 ----- 2 ---------------------- 50.00% ----------------------------------------
D5: 8 - 5 - 3 ------2 ----------------------- 60.00% ----------------------------------------
D6: 7 - 4 - 3 ------2 ------------------------75.00% ----------------------------------------
D6: 6 - 3 - 3 ---- Town lose


So I think it's more reasonable to carry both beeboy and unwnd around.
This perspective also makes me think that beeboy is 100% town because he has no reason to as scum otherwise.
It also makes me think that unwnd's role is more reasonable.

Now I have the basic numbers run, I'll think about this a bit more next post.

[Dunnstral]

Dunn didn't say much about any suspicion on raya in the pt.

I didn't want to stir the pot if the quiz was going to pass. There was no reason for me to say anything about Raya in the pt (and if the quiz passed, I would believe him as town)

When I initially voted unwnd chainleader, I was under the impression that Raya was going to be pushing for beeboy - instead he instantly hammered unwnd in a post that came out in the same minute - now, to be fair, he also had some analysis to go with that, so it's like... I asked if there was no p.edit in pts but apparently there is.

Now, I could be wrong - between You, Spring, and Starbuck, I think Starbuck was behaving oddly in the pt - it's like she was pushing spring in advance, knowing that the quiz would fail - though why scum would do that IDK.

As for you not knowing that the person we were voting was bp: I assumed you knew it after the mod clarification - so you never saw that? What about the posts where I was arguing to give it to unwnd so he could give a result in case there was scum in the quiz group, and playing for the bad case scenario rather than the good case scenario?

[Dunnstral]

I think there is a very high chance that scum simply doesn't have a nk.

Then why is the quiz leader bulletproof?

[Dunnstral]

Wait - are you think the mafia JoaT has a vig attached to it, and that's where scum power comes from?

[springlullaby]

I think there is a very high chance that scum simply doesn't have a nk.

Then why is the quiz leader bulletproof?

They are bp during the day.
I think scum gain kills with failed quiz.

@MOD could you clarify whether the chainleader is bulletproof during the day or the night please?

[springlullaby]

Wait - are you think the mafia JoaT has a vig attached to it, and that's where scum power comes from?

Yes, or else the number are just too stacked against town.

[Dunnstral]

So for example, if Mary became the chain leader after a vote on night 4 she would be bullet proof night 4 and day 5. Not Day 5 and night 5.

This should explain it

[Dunnstral]

I don't get why this setup is more stacked against town just based on numbers

I understand that the chain mechanic is potentially scumsided - is that it?

[Dunnstral]

I think you need to consider that failing a quiz = town knows there's scum in a group of players

[springlullaby]

I think you need to consider that failing a quiz = town knows there's scum in a group of players

But given bboy and unwnd, I think it is possible scum also has a pr that tampers, at least once, with quiz. Though, I'm undecided yet on how that balance out against:
- anytime scum is in the chain = mislynch
- anytime scum is in the qt = scum advantage


---> Without the numbers, and on first glance that looks way scumsided to me.

If you wanna run the numbers.

[Dunnstral]

We can still lynch scum, even if one has gotten the chain further up the chain, though

What we need to avoid is having scum as the person who chooses who dies, to be honest - as beeboy said at the start of the game

Now that I mention that, why did that plan fall apart yesterday? It was supposed to be beeboy at the 2nd to last position on the chain

[springlullaby]

For reference, chance of hitting scum on the chain for today goes like this:

Player 1 ----P2 ----------P3-----------P4-----------P5-----------P6---------P7--------P8------P9------P10-------P11-------P12
3/11 ------ 3/10------- 3/9 --------- 3/8 -------- 3/7 --------- 3/6 ------ 3/5 -------3/3
--------------------------------------------------------------------50%

We hit 1/2 chance ok getting scum on the chain by player 6, so yeah, that's pretty stacked against town.

[Dunnstral]

OK, I get what you're saying. Are you assuming that scum passes to each other?

[springlullaby]

On a purely logical basis, yes. They'd be dumb not too.
But they will also pass on whomever they think they control.
That's why I asked for the list yesterday btw. To have more data on decision making.

[farside22]

Dunn didn't say much about any suspicion on raya in the pt.

I didn't want to stir the pot if the quiz was going to pass. There was no reason for me to say anything about Raya in the pt (and if the quiz passed, I would believe him as town)

When I initially voted unwnd chainleader, I was under the impression that Raya was going to be pushing for beeboy - instead he instantly hammered unwnd in a post that came out in the same minute - now, to be fair, he also had some analysis to go with that, so it's like... I asked if there was no p.edit in pts but apparently there is.

Now, I could be wrong - between You, Spring, and Starbuck, I think Starbuck was behaving oddly in the pt - it's like she was pushing spring in advance, knowing that the quiz would fail - though why scum would do that IDK.

As for you not knowing that the person we were voting was bp: I assumed you knew it after the mod clarification - so you never saw that? What about the posts where I was arguing to give it to unwnd so he could give a result in case there was scum in the quiz group, and playing for the bad case scenario rather than the good case scenario?

Well I decided to reread you and Raya in Iso. I can see what you mean about Raya's vote on unwnd.
I thought Spring's reaction to unwnd being nommed read a little panicky. When someone said unwnd was a bit unpredictable I thought that would be something scum would panic about more.

I looked at the thread this morning when i woke up and got the PM from the mod about day. So I only caught onto the new chainleader being BP once elected this morning and it took a few extra minutes for my brain to catch up at 5 something in the morning.