Micro 941 | Brass and Shrapnel | Game Over!

[Hoctac]

Nice, I knew you would. I'll bring back those fond memories later.

V/LA is in quotation marks because I'm still reasonably active while on V/LA.

[Kilgamayan]

[quote="In

Posting from bed to remind myself to take a different approach in tomorrow's rereads. Rather than looking at pairings, I need to go back and look at who has been demonstrably wrong in their main suspicions, and determine who had better reasons for thinking the way they did versus who had worse reasons for thinking the way they did. This might just be paranoid bedtime thought racing

but I'm starting to get cold mental feet on Tuxedo the more I dwell on this situation

.

can you elaborate on this?

(a) No one's remotely buying into what I've put forth, which suggests pretty strongly it's wrong
(b) Brain is beginning to give credence to the idea that ceejay and enomis were sufficiently close in Tuxedo's mind that he didn't think it worth addressing that ceejay wasn't getting a replacement

[Hoctac]

[quote="In

Posting from bed to remind myself to take a different approach in tomorrow's rereads. Rather than looking at pairings, I need to go back and look at who has been demonstrably wrong in their main suspicions, and determine who had better reasons for thinking the way they did versus who had worse reasons for thinking the way they did. This might just be paranoid bedtime thought racing

but I'm starting to get cold mental feet on Tuxedo the more I dwell on this situation

.

can you elaborate on this?

(a) No one's remotely buying into what I've put forth, which suggests pretty strongly it's wrong
(b) Brain is beginning to give credence to the idea that ceejay and enomis were sufficiently close in Tuxedo's mind that he didn't think it worth addressing that ceejay wasn't getting a replacement

Really? What if Tux is town? Do you think mafia would be pretending to buy into what you're saying, or just mostly lurk and hope you place the game winning (for them) vote?

I'm surprised you didn't consider either of those possiblities, considering half of the game from your PoV is scum right now.

[Kilgamayan]

If Tuxedo is town then obviously the case is wrong. <_<

[Night 3 Roses]

err, can you walk me through that? like assume for the sake of argument both you and tuxedo are town. what do you think scum would be doing?

-D

[Kilgamayan]

That would depend on what the team is and what their endgame is, two things I don't know at present. But whatever they may be doing, in any hypothetical where I assume Tuxedo is town, then my case against him is wrong and should be dropped, yes? That's why I'm not understanding the sudden line of question that seems to boil down to "Why is this reason a reason to drop the scum case against Tuxedo? Have you considered what you should do if Tuxedo is town?". Is there something to the confusion I'm missing?

[PenguinPower]

Oh - I didn't really care about the order because I didn't expect it to accomplish much.

Why not? You can confirm scum in pools with the right claim order, and getting them to claim early.

Not with the spread we had. Best we could do is look at the split order and assess with previous interactions.

Best thing I got from the was Kilga’s reaction to you and the order wouldn’t have impacted that.

[Night 3 Roses]

yes, obviously if tuxedo is town then cases against him should be dropped since they're on town and lynching town is bad etc. but i'm trying to understand

how

you got to that conclusion, or

how

your line of reasoning got you to that conclusion.

because the only way i cound see "nobody is buying my case, therefore it's wrong" is in a scenario where there's a lot of town and not a lot of scum, so no town is "buying" your case, meaning nobody else in the town thinks the case is right, so the case is probably wrong. (which isn't even something i'd agree with but i can see someone having that line of reasoning.) however we're in 5p lylo and i don't think that same thought process can be applied here. which is why i'm asking.

like, it's not about tuxedo's alignment, it's about how you got to his alignment.

-D

pedit: @kilga if it wasn't obvious

[Tuxedo Mask]

@Tuxedo Mask: I did not mean to say you were happy with any lynch. If that is how what I wrote came across, that's my bad. To be clear, I meant to say that I don't believe you cared which of ceejay or enomis got lynched. Yes, you had suspicions of both of them, but you prioritized ceejay earlier in the day for some reason, and the only stated reason you switched to enomis was because of the potential replacement. I feel like Town Tuxedo, upon seeing ceejay reappear and thus eliminate the possibility of a replacement, would have acknowledged ceejay's return in some fashion, either by switching the vote back to ceejay or explaining why you now prefer enomis. That you did not do either of these while demonstrably having the time to do so is why I suspect you.

Right, but what I was arguing was that the game state felt really weird, no one seemed to know how to engage, and no pushes we really gaining much ground. So I thought the explanation might be that town was simply talking in circles and that scum was lurking, so my suspicions fell onto CJ and Enomis who really didn't do anything day 1. As well when CJ started posting at the end of day 1, I'm not going to turn around and try to lynch a lurker BECAUSE they started posting, if maybe he said something that pinged me I would have, but he didn't.

What about you, Tux? You haven't expressed who you think it might be today.

I'm not sure at the moment, Kilga's pinging me the most. I don't like the logic of their push on me at all, it seems like a very dishonest representation of where I stood at the end of day one. Also, their now town read of you seems weird but I don't know if its scum motivated. Would scum!Kilga come into day 2, and say they reevaluated their read of you now that instead of having to convince three people, they and Roses only have to convince one? You could explain that with them potentially being Scum!Hoctac and Scum!Kilga, but I think that's really unlikely since it's a huge risk on their part to have Kiga spend all of day 1 bussing their partner.

PP and Roses would make the most sense as Scum!Kilga's partner, but that would mean me being wrong about my two strongest town reads. I think Roses interactions with Kilga could be theater, and maybe an attempt at pocketing me. PP just doesn't strike me as scum, because of their very hard push of Koba at EOD, seems very risky for scum to do especially replacing in so late into a widely town read slot. It would be easier to coast. It seems much more town motivated.

As for you, I liked your playstyle day 1, and your explosion of effort in the latter half of that day felt very good. Your recent questioning of Kilga seems good too.

Still need to actually reread though, which I've been slacking on, sorry.

@Smarter People would scum quick hammer in this set up? Like I get in a normal set up if I'm town and Kilga is town, scum could jump on me for a win, but here would the risk of hitting a Saint, getting shot by a Vig, or shooting a bomb at night prevent them from going for it?

[Kilgamayan]

@N3R: It's not that I'm convinced Tuxedo is town, just that I'm a lot less confident in my case than before, to the point where I think it would be better to look elsewhere. The internal logic was to look at how the day had played out so far and question how likely it was that my case was good and Tuxedo was scum.

* Hoctac has briefly entertained the idea that Tuxedo is sum but did not engage with what I put forth (until I stated that I was getting cold feet about it).
* You disagree with my core premise (947) and have been pretty vocally against my case the whole time.
* PP hasn't engaged with my case, presumably because he hasn't read it.

If Tuxedo were scum, then two of those three reactions are genuine town reactions from people that seem to know what they're doing better than I. That's enough to tell me that the case isn't worth pursuing.

Perhaps Tuxedo actually

is

scum and there will be something more indicative of that later! But at the moment I don't feel good about pursuing what I've been pursuing anymore.

[Tuxedo Mask]

If Tuxedo were scum, then two of those three reactions are genuine town reactions from people that seem to know what they're doing better than I. That's enough to tell me that the case isn't worth pursuing.

But isn't the problem here that if that's true than they're wrong? So just because the reaction is genuine it isn't a reason to scum read me less.

Like the options are...
1. You're scum failing to get two town players in Hoctac, PP, and Rose's to lynch town me.

2. We're both town, and for some reason scum aren't using your suspicions of me to win.

3. I'm scum, and you haven't convinced two town in Hoctac, Roses, PP to lynch me.

So you backing off your super aggressive start. That you voted me into your first post in MYLO looked really bad.

I'm okay to lynch here.

[Kilgamayan]

So you are proposing my attitude should be "this isn't accomplishing anything but I'm going to do it anyway"? That would be a very illogical approach, particularly in LYLO. If what I've done so far isn't accomplishing anything then town is much better served that I look for things I might have missed elsewhere.

[Kilgamayan]

Anyway, here's what I'm now thinking is more likely. Been getting more bad vibes the more I dwell on it.

VOTE: PenguinPower
UNVOTE: PenguinPower

* Didn't like the Koba push late D1 (and said so at the time). Too much of it was focused on things that were NAI and/or derptown, like having mechanics questions and making mechanical mistakes, as well as the whole Bingle confusion thing. I suggest anyone townreading PP for the Koba push go back and actually look at the details of its contents.
* Today's approach to me looks largely the same; NAI playstyle differences (post lengths and overnight writeups) and more derptown stuff (the snap gut reaction to how the claims shook out). I actually think there are reasonable reasons to think the solution could be me and Hoctac, most notably my shift off Hoctac to a lurker near the end of D1, but that point is just sort of shuffled into the background in 939 in favor of other things, some of which are observably inaccurate (the order-of-claims thing, the 926 statement that Hoctac "didn't care about my order" when I had already provided a claim order when Hoctac started actively bugging people for them and thus there was no reason to bug me).

tl;dr the things PP is bringing to bear against people are not actually scummy things, which would explain why PP has avoided explaining why those things are scummy things.

[Tuxedo Mask]

So you are proposing my attitude should be "this isn't accomplishing anything but I'm going to do it anyway"? That would be a very illogical approach, particularly in LYLO. If what I've done so far isn't accomplishing anything then town is much better served that I look for things I might have missed elsewhere.

What I'm saying is that this line of reasoning is flawed...

If Tuxedo were scum, then two of those three reactions are genuine town reactions from people that seem to know what they're doing better than I. That's enough to tell me that the case isn't worth pursuing.

If that's true then they don't 'know what they're doing better'. Right, from Town!Kilga perspective town can either have majority genuine reaction to me and be wrong or have a majority ingenuine reaction to me and be right. It can't be both. So to drop it here feels really off. Now Scum!Kilga could reach this conclusion because they know two of Roses, PP, and Hoctac reactions are genuine and not being convinced to lynch Town!Tux.

Also, if Kilga is town, I don't see scum's play here? Like I'm pretty sure going for the quick hammer on me is the best play.

[PenguinPower]

Scum risk supersaint if they quick lynch given the number of non vig claims.

Daughters birthday today. I’ll be here tomorrow.

[Kilgamayan]

I think it bears repeating that I myself was starting to doubt my Tuxedo case. It's not like the decision was

only

"oh other people aren't buying it so it must be wrong", that's merely the only part of my 951 that people have focused on today. In that same post, I state that I myself was having doubts about the validity of the case, independent of how others were engaging (or not engaging) with it. The two things together were enough to convince me to look elsewhere. I'm starting to think this got missed.

Also, if Kilga is town, I don't see scum's play here? Like I'm pretty sure going for the quick hammer on me is the best play.

In your hypothetical situation where I am town, do you not think I am a valid scum play mislynch? <_<

[Tuxedo Mask]

In post 963, Tuxedo Mask wrote:
Also, if Kilga is town, I don't see scum's play here? Like I'm pretty sure going for the quick hammer on me is the best play.


In your hypothetical situation where I am town, do you not think I am a valid scum play mislynch? <_<

Like this could be, but no one except me and you (PP a bit) have talked about my read. My statement is based on you starting the day with a vote of me. So Town!Kiga had the strongest stance starting today, and even cast a vote. I'm not in your head, but on the page, it looks like it wouldn't take much to convince you to lynch me. So for scum to sit back and let that read slowly deteriorate feels weird. But if we're thinking that scum is carefully avoiding a Saint and trying to stack the wagons right then I need to rethink this.

[Night 3 Roses]

That would depend on what the team is and what their endgame is, two things I don't know at present. But whatever they may be doing, in any hypothetical where I assume Tuxedo is town, then my case against him is wrong and should be dropped, yes? That's why I'm not understanding the sudden line of question that seems to boil down to "Why is this reason a reason to drop the scum case against Tuxedo? Have you considered what you should do if Tuxedo is town?". Is there something to the confusion I'm missing?

Your reasoning for beginning to doubt your scumread on Tux is because

it might be wrong?

[Night 3 Roses]

@N3R: It's not that I'm convinced Tuxedo is town, just that I'm a lot less confident in my case than before, to the point where I think it would be better to look elsewhere. The internal logic was to look at how the day had played out so far and question how likely it was that my case was good and Tuxedo was scum.

* Hoctac has briefly entertained the idea that Tuxedo is sum but did not engage with what I put forth (until I stated that I was getting cold feet about it).
* You disagree with my core premise (947) and have been pretty vocally against my case the whole time.
* PP hasn't engaged with my case, presumably because he hasn't read it.

If Tuxedo were scum, then two of those three reactions are genuine town reactions from people that seem to know what they're doing better than I. That's enough to tell me that the case isn't worth pursuing.

Perhaps Tuxedo actually

is

scum and there will be something more indicative of that later! But at the moment I don't feel good about pursuing what I've been pursuing anymore.

To me this reads like you are trying to bail on pushing Tux but leaving the door open for when others push him
The entire reason for dropping your scumread on Tux is that others aren't agreeing with you, which shouldn't have an influence on you. At most it can make you look elsewhere but it shouldn't have an influence on your actual scumread on the Tux.

-This is ico btw

[Night 3 Roses]

If Tuxedo were scum, then two of those three reactions are genuine town reactions from people that seem to know what they're doing better than I. That's enough to tell me that the case isn't worth pursuing.

But isn't the problem here that if that's true than they're wrong? So just because the reaction is genuine it isn't a reason to scum read me less.

Like the options are...
1. You're scum failing to get two town players in Hoctac, PP, and Rose's to lynch town me.

2. We're both town, and for some reason scum aren't using your suspicions of me to win.

3. I'm scum, and you haven't convinced two town in Hoctac, Roses, PP to lynch me.

So you backing off your super aggressive start. That you voted me into your first post in MYLO looked really bad.

I'm okay to lynch here.

Yeah tux is still town

[Night 3 Roses]

We need to start discussing who we are gonna lynch and more importantly who we want to hammer

[Hoctac]

We need to start discussing who we are gonna lynch and more importantly who we want to hammer

Go on then...

[Hoctac]

Admittedly, Kilga, I have a very bad habit of not reading walls and closely as I would othe posts. As a result, I probably didn't look through your case as thoroughly as I should have. I'll take a proper look later today.

[Night 3 Roses]

fine i'll go first

Kilga lynch with either of Hoctac/PP hammering
Am unsure about the hammer, but favouring hoctac to hammer

[Kilgamayan]

@N3R:

I think it bears repeating that I myself was starting to doubt my Tuxedo case. It's not like the decision was

only

"oh other people aren't buying it so it must be wrong", that's merely the only part of my 951 that people have focused on today. In that same post, I state that I myself was having doubts about the validity of the case, independent of how others were engaging (or not engaging) with it. The two things together were enough to convince me to look elsewhere. I'm starting to think this got missed.