How is this w/w
lange nonal 227 OHHH!!!! OHHH!!!!! ITS OVER OHHHHHH!!!! OHHH
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midwaybear
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NorwegianboyEE Survivor
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Actually yeah, i'm getting way too worked up about this.In post 1893, word321 wrote:UNVOTE:
Lets do this like civilized ppl this time, shall we?
No need to do a real vote if we have a strategy
UNVOTE:
My vote is still on Midway in spirit. But i need to see more people tune in first. There's too much happening.- votato
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votato Mafia Scum
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oh you're right i said that backwards. if you flip scum we vig word and we vig alora if you flip town.
but again, that could be a SvS if you knew it wasnt really a hammer."It is not our ignorance that will kill us, but our arrogance"
"I expect that 90% of what you say to me is one form of trickery or another" - a friend irl- votato
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lololololol. i dont townread this person anymore so im gonna unvote them. also heres this other thing. dont know what any of it means, and im not gonna even try to puzzle it out.In post 1904, midwaybear wrote:i actually thought it was hammer. Anyways, idk what alor is, but I don't townread him anymore. My preferred lynch is madonna/word.
iirc nahdia defended madonna early game and albert was attacking. That might have been a scum tactic idk
but i do have this preference set, based on ????"It is not our ignorance that will kill us, but our arrogance"
"I expect that 90% of what you say to me is one form of trickery or another" - a friend irl- word321
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Im ok with thisIn post 1897, votato wrote:the strategy is to lynch midway. if he flips town we vig word and if he flips scum we vig alora
If he is not scum despite everything and Im literally wrong withe every hypothesis this game, then god hates me and Ideserveto be lynched In Nomine Domini (DEUS VULT, INFIDEL)
What I dnt agree is aloratom here
Why is he the most likely partner upon a bear flip? (Im assuming we droped the choosing of the block; either way, the hypothesis is still seacrhing for a bear partner) He literally tried to kill him just now.
Lets drop already the surface reads and try to actually read the game again; we still have 11 days to decide on that
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Did you read the quoted post? I was sharing my work with someone who was suggesting I was not doing anything. My post explains I considered it at length and eventually dismissed the idea. In a later post, Aloratom, you again push the idea that I believe the game is multiball, and again, that would be wrong.In post 1791, Aloratom wrote:
What's the purpose of this post? To raise again the possibility of a second mafia? Why do that?In post 1750, Madonna wrote:I normally delete quotes within quotes to prevent walls, but if you need the post Aloratom responds to, this would be it.
Why is everyone so outraged by their scumread? Lynch midwaybear or get over here.Make the right decision,
VOTE: Madonna- NDMath
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[hide=Word post]
[/hide]In post 1864, word321 wrote:We have this guy pinning on Aloratom:
Spoiler:
Until alarotam became too townread to be lynched (I know this is an alteration of the timeline, but this does reflect the thought process midway may have had at the time):
Spoiler:
Into a full blown stampede on the other townslots:
Spoiler:
Note the emphasis on my slot over the other, coincidentally being the most scumread over {Madonna, 7po, word321}
Not only it has incorrect facts, as Abr and Nahdia coluded on my wagon on D1, she never defended me once (u can go check it out if u want); he retracted about that only after being called out on it.
There is also flawed logic; his first attitude was "If alarotam is scum, vig word instead of block, as he was deflective". U know, in the plan I was to be blocked; if u rly though I was the most likely partner, the best course of action would be to block, cause that would have easily shown a no kill on the day; this is for pragmatic reasons, as scum can actually not kill that night, so blocking on this scenario is faulty (unless, again, we r talking about the most possible partner)***. If bear is rly town, then even if he dies we win the game under that hypothesis. On the other hand, if Im not the most likely partner to Aloratom, then only if I was the most suspect would it be better to vig at night my slot, EXACTLY if im, again, not the most likely partner; the association does not amount to anything.
What does it amount, though? Bear survives the night, cause he is not vigged. Furthermore, Aloratom dstn evenneedto be scum; the current convention is that we will vigregardless of a flipand only blockupon a flip.
This is faulty logic in so many ways, and favors bear so much it is not even funny.
I thought to actually also post his "spectacular" defense on his (lack of) assosiation with albert, but u can all go iso him for that. Its funny considering one of the things that killed the most momentum of his wagon after nahdias lynch was alberts gambit, wich monopolized the day.
Overall, I RLY think at this point midwaybear is scum. How can a player pray so much for his own survival? Thats the only thing that makes me think that makes him town, cause no scum would be so blatantly obvious. But he isnt even trying to rly solve the game; again, the above argument isfactually wrongmeaning he didnt even bother to check how things rly went. I cant even associate it with newbieness; I saw him on 1997, he wasnt a bad player.
I just think he is playing every card to stay alive here.
And again I must repeat myself:We have so many little real information we r judgin ppl directly based upon comparatives, and not "hard" data. From the lynch list, the only one Im truly confident could be scum is midwaybear; our current process of choosing the lynch is naturally orbiting to leaving the most experient players alive, and not the most likely towns; proof of that is aloratoms current shift to block instead of lynch, midways bear drift towards the most scummy player and 7pos practical immunity. I feel this is highly faulty, specially considering (again, repeating myself) that the most likely scums to survive r the most experient ones; thats completely contradictory with bear. I have made every single call wrong this game, so I may be biased; but I RLY think the dices on this particular ocasion r better (upon a prearranged list, oc).
Upon the current arrangement of things, its pretty clear bear and me cant be partners; so under that hypothesis, considering Ill be in the trio of players to be lynched, it IS indeed more effective to lynch bear, then vig me and then block aloratom (excluding Madonna and 7po); but due to his recent attitude to aloratom, I think there should be another 3rd player instead of aloratom on the block in case bear effectlively flips scum. Notice Im currently proposing to ditch that particular bit of the current strategy though.
***This is why I dnt like NDMaths, plan. There r 2 main reasons:
1. Keep things deadsimple, if they r as effective; no need to put a lot of conditionals on this.
2. Confirming who u r blocking is a TERRIBLE idea on every single scenario; even if we do lynch scum, lets say we r wrong on the block, and scum dsnt kill that night. What would happen? Thats a free ticket to defeat. On the other hand, not disclosing the block actually has investigative values, cause scum dsnt know who will be blocked
The conditionals are important for optimization.
If scum no kill after we hang scum, we literally straight up win. That would be excellent.
The experienced players are the townie ones.
Norwee gets to survive because of the claim anyway.
I think scum team is either midway/tom or word/tom.- votato
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I'm still in favor of this.In post 1876, votato wrote:In post 1756, NDMath wrote:There are three votes on Tom right now. (Norwee, madonna, midway)
Hang Tom
vig midway
If Tom is mafia alien word
If Tom is town don't say who you're going to alien.
I'm ready for hammer if votato is.
If midway is hung then swap tom and midway.- NorwegianboyEE
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When do we get this Midway?In post 1907, midwaybear wrote:ok, I'm actually going to defend myself but give me some time
no hurry- Aloratom
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You're not outright pushing it, but you keep the idea alive. In 1753 you respond to popo's question about whether ndmath is conf!Town by saying maybe, maybe not: two mafias could explain two deaths/night or a vig could explain two deaths/night. You go into another theory post similar to 1750 about things that are acceptably true. Yet in both 1750 and 1753 you appear to come to the conclusion that the claimed PRs need to stand pat and the VTs are where the scum sit, which is the same conclusion that everyone else seems to have reached without the extraneous matter. All the theory posting does nothing to solve the game. Why bring up non-viable alternatives if they're not contributing to game solving unless you're trying to either look busy or keep those non-viable ideas alive?In post 1911, Madonna wrote:
Did you read the quoted post? I was sharing my work with someone who was suggesting I was not doing anything. My post explains I considered it at length and eventually dismissed the idea. In a later post, Aloratom, you again push the idea that I believe the game is multiball, and again, that would be wrong.In post 1791, Aloratom wrote:
What's the purpose of this post? To raise again the possibility of a second mafia? Why do that?In post 1750, Madonna wrote:I normally delete quotes within quotes to prevent walls, but if you need the post Aloratom responds to, this would be it.
Why is everyone so outraged by their scumread? Lynch midwaybear or get over here.- Aloratom
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Look, I can try.- I post that we are waiting
- votato calls it bereft of analysis and look at me, i am so town, shading me on one post instead of doing anything better
- I share a whole bunch of stuff that did not make the cut because I am putting work into this game while saying votato only has a role claim that saved him
- popopopopopopo asks if this means NDMath is confirmed or not, he asks this right after my posts so I assume that is what made him ask, so the yes and no is the long and short of it, yes being the simple answer, no being welllllll technically there is a possibility
- Summary: I brought up a dead theory of mine to tell votato to buzz off, said it was dead, popopopopopopo asked if it was a live theory, and I said no
In post 1748, Madonna wrote:I think we are still waiting on popopopopopopo to vote or maybe intent to L-1 if we are hammer wary, but we really need to pick targets for the alien and vigilante so whatever the night results, we know where we stand. Or is it better to trust the power roles and do it quietly so scum cannot trust their own actions?In post 1749, votato wrote:i mean it would be cool if a neighborizer were to show up right about now. dont like that LAMIST post. thats pure IIoA.In post 1750, Madonna wrote:You have my reads prior to the mass claim and you have seen my opinions on the path we have to take. Other than discussing what is the best use the power roles, I have little else to say because lynching the VTs is my plan. You know, the one that puts me at risk so that town may win, so you can comfortably sit there and lob acronyms at me while you stress that you do not want to work with town.
Here, let me lob a bomb your way, if you want analysis:there are no confirmed town in this game. Everything is a matter of trust. There is no proof for any of this. We treat the power claims as givens because we trust in both the players and in likelihoods. All of these claims could be argued against. The vigilante is an excuse for a second mafia, the tracker claim handily fell out when someone claimed to have misread rolestopper as roleblocker and it is odd because we know the alien was, and the rolestopper may have stopped the second night nightkill but someone realize they could take credit by claiming to be a universal backup. This is all strictly possible. These are all things we could consider.
But we do not, because paranoia destroys a game, because we learn to trust some players, some more than others, and someoverothers. We make a choice when we say NDMath's claim is valid and Nahdia's is not. We decide that our votes matter, that we can tell when someone votes sincerely or maliciously, that a mislynch can come from a good place, that a player's general performance says that one play does not make him scum. So because of all that, we individually decide and agree that our town, as a group, must be right when we claim we have confirmed town, and I choose to believe that NDMath, NorwegianboyEE, and you, votato, are confirmed town, even though I have explained why that is not a thing. So I have been making a lot of decisions to trust in this game, to analyze that which I have been presented, and there has been good and bad, and when I need to decide what is right or what I need to assume is true, do not come to me and accuse me of shitty scumtells when I do not bring shit to your door when you imagine you are above scrutiny and do not need to be pro-town. You cannot tell us who you abducted when you are dead, you horned ass.In post 1752, popopopopopopo wrote:feel like ndmath is confirmed 100% no?In post 1753, Madonna wrote:
Devoid of content, scumtell.In post 1751, votato wrote:oooh spiceyyyy
Yes and no. Two deaths happen every night. NDMath claiming to be vigilante explains it. There could be two mafia. That too would explain two deaths every night. There is no proof a second mafia exists, and no scum is going to come forward to helpfully explain that yes, there are two factions in the shadows. So then you would ask, why would NDMath claim vig if there are two scum, and you would say because NDMath is scum, and he is claiming vigilante to be town, and we are all fucked if this is true. So it is not true. Because it is 1) complicated and 2) relies on an amazing scumclaim and 3) that is not generally how the game works. So it is easier to say NDMath is confirmed town. Apply it with NorwegianboyEE, and nothing mechanical supports his claim, but we love him anyways (tm), confirmed town. Again with votato, I already explained this, it is acceptably true, so confirmed town. I wanted to explain I have weighed a lot of options, discarded things not deemed worthwhile, versus serving them up as a scum and insisting any of it a case. So to be called out on one agreeably non-essential post in a lull, not thrilled.In post 1752, popopopopopopo wrote:feel like ndmath is confirmed 100% no?
I have already voted, I have already shared my scumpool picks, still waiting on others to catch up, still waiting on votato to play his best town.Make the right decision,
VOTE: Madonna- Aloratom
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I appreciate you laying it out in that form. You are correct that your ISO does not do it justice. If I disregard the "yes and no" lead in to 1753 and pause at "so it is not true," I believe I understand where you are coming from. And I see that you were and are trying to be transparent in your thought process. I see now where I was incorrectly assigning you a view that you do not hold. I think I saw what I wanted to see in an effort to find a bad guy.
This is the kind of dialogue I've been asking the Town leaders to engage in with the VTs so that Plan A is executed with the best information.- votato
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Some posts on 7po:
#7PO
Spoiler:
We see an interesting evolution here; I think I know why ppl mostly think 7po is town; he went hard from early on against the scum slots. Particular emphasis on 542 and even more particular emphasis to:At this point going though the ISO, I thought it was fairly reasonable as town. But if we take into consideration the WHOLE game, this fits
overwflowinglytoo well by a large margin; the guy went straight to Nahdia for the lynch, while still going directly and openly for a midwaybear on the way, and albert early on (lets for the sake of the argument, assume midwaybear is scum; EVEN if u r not convinced at this point for the possibility, he will still probably be the lynch of the day, henceforth it is more plausible to look for possible partners in the playerbase, so it is a good hypothesis to have regardless). So far, so good; but immediatly after Nahdias lynch, we have a complete 180; the read on albert became a downright townread for powerole ("ok, this may have explained his weird behavior yesterday"), and a vote on stanley, and the case on bear practically disappearing; moreso, today bear is completely ausent from the equation, when he openly speculated about a Nahdia/Bear association when Nahdia was yet to flip.
Overall, I think he could have got an insane amount of towncread early on and may be monopolizing on that at this point to be kept outside the grand scheme of things, bussing every partner at a time it was not sure who was going to be lynched and whos not (exactly for the apparent preeminance of ISO reads instead of context reads on large games, due to the sheer amount of information); and now he can simply "be here" and lurk his way out. It is worth noticing he still has activity on the site, and is currently playing a blitz (I was checking that actually for monkey and holden in another game), so I think his convenient disappearence on D4 is actually lurking on that regard.
So, overall I still am incapable of seeing the conftown 7po ppl see, and am casing him as the most likely partner for a bear.
Following the same hypothesis for a scum bear, it is actually a little bit better for Madonna.
Heres the thing: For the sake of simplicity, lets assume it is a game of 4 scums and that bear is one of the scums. D2 ended quite chaotically for a possible scum team; the reads on bear were rly bad, albert openly went for a lynch on another one and a defense on nahdia instead and nahdia was, well, dead. If we were to assume Madonna was in the team, they needed to choose someone to kill gobble at the time; but madonna was abducted that day by votato, who blocked ndmaths kill. Still, gobble died; we r weighting now the likeness of nahdia being sent over albert and bear (under the hypothesis, again, bear is scum). That is a RLY hard data, so I dnt think we should choose madonna at all given that hypothesis, at least not for a kill.
Lastly, I need to ask the same as aloratom; being confirmed town dst grant a license to lurk the day. We cant rly work on surface reads, and trying to fit {word, aloratom} on a scenario when bear flips scum or town if neither of them fits one of the possibilities over others is being downright lazy. We have A LOT of material on this game; would it be better if there was fewer?Played inNewbie 1992,Newbie 1997,Newbie 1999,Large Normal 227,Newbie 2006,Open 784,Open 787,Newbie 2019, Open 790, Newbie 2022.
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