Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Menalque]

Also — yes, we should still lynch gobbles, but you should change your vote temporarily to where you think groupscum is to make it easier to track where people thought scum was on D1 in retrospect when people look back at ofhrz’s ISO and the VCs

[Menalque]

Page top.

Could you ctrl+f your name in my ISO because I think there were at least 2 questions for you?

[Datisi]

:thonk:
can you elaborate on this a lil bit

also was there a point in being very secretive about reads before your Readslist
there probably was but i haven't had my coffee yet so

Err it just feels like town you the last couple of times we’ve fought in games? And like idk if there’s that much more to it than that? I feel like your emotional responses are basically honest. Maybe I’m just a sucker if you are scum but rn I don’t see the reason to doubt whether you’re manipulating me like that because there are much better candidates for scum so I’m just not going to interrogate whether you’d intentionally make me feel bad to win as scum and I don’t really wanna go there so

Yes — I didn’t want scum to be able to play around me before they knew what I thought because I wanted them as natural/relaxed as possible

sigh
can we like
go back to autumnal
but instead of you dying early we live for a while and just coast correctly townreading each other and gamesolve and do Not This of "you could be picking a fight" "you could be playing with my emotions" becuase it's o l d (not solely blaming you if that wasn't apparent)

ok i don't think this is a pocket attempt

[Datisi]

Also — yes, we should still lynch gobbles, but you should

change your vote temporarily to where you think groupscum is

to make it easier to track where people thought scum was on D1 in retrospect when people look back at ofhrz’s ISO and the VCs

i'm trying to do this and i'm actually genuinely not sure where i want to vote because gobbles was by far my strongest scumread and everyone else is either "some type of a townread" or "? ?? null ?? ?"

[Menalque]

I’m trying? It’s why I’ve taken a punt on backing my townread if you and actually saying “yes, datisi is in my top townreads” instead of equivocating over it a million times

What did you think of my readslist more generally? I wanna know what you thought about PP’s reaction after people answer you on why they thought it was town indicative

[skitter30]

Okay why, because pure boi and Maria said the same thing but I thought it was a really +scum reaction to have

I dont think he reacts to scumreads opinionatedly and aggressively like this

[Menalque]

@dats regarding 1278, do you think it’s implausible that the entire scumteam could be in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt)?

[skitter30]

No

[Datisi]

What did you think of my readslist more generally?

i actually agree with a lot of it?

which kinda makes me think back to when scum!you said something like "Datisi's and my reads are matching and that could be me getting pocketed" or some bullshit

what's your thought on our reads Mostly Matching here

@dats regarding 1278, do you think it’s implausible that the entire scumteam could be in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt)?

i don't necessarily see anything that's strongly poitning to "not partners"
but also nothing that's pointing to "partners"
so uhh
no?

[Menalque]

No

You think it could be (Lilith, PP, chem)?

[skitter30]

I misread implausible as plausible, sorry
I think it's unlikely the entire team is in that group.
If its a 2man scumteam maaaaaaaybe but if its a 3man i would be quite shocked

[Menalque]

So, assuming that gobbles is telling the truth and isn’t gsmbiting as scum to try and buy extra time by promising to be a pro-town SK:

The following setups are the SK ones:
TTTTTTT
TTTTT
TTT
T

I think it’s reasonable to dismiss the top outcome and the bottom as highly unlikely for now (can be reconsidered in the case of a large number of PR/VT flips later on) which gives us 2 setups, one with a two man scumteam, one with a threeman.

If it is one of those scum have either a 1s bus drive, or they have a JOAT(rb, ninja, strongman)

[Menalque]

Looking at the setup, it does seem a little unfair to scum that they get the same power whether it’s 5 or 7 PRs in town

[Menalque]

I misread implausible as plausible, sorry
I think it's unlikely the entire team is in that group.
If its a 2man scumteam maaaaaaaybe but if its a 3man i would be quite shocked

Okay, then where am I going wrong?

What if I expand that to include S_S?

The whole scumteam in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt, S_S)?

[Menalque]

What did you think of my readslist more generally?

i actually agree with a lot of it?

which kinda makes me think back to when scum!you said something like "Datisi's and my reads are matching and that could be me getting pocketed" or some bullshit

what's your thought on our reads Mostly Matching here

@dats regarding 1278, do you think it’s implausible that the entire scumteam could be in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt)?

i don't necessarily see anything that's strongly poitning to "not partners"
but also nothing that's pointing to "partners"
so uhh
no?

I’d kinda like you to help explain to me your reads on everyone so I can check my thought process against yours, but like that seems positive to me? Yeah there’s a little bit of fear, same as I have with Maria saying her list is basically mine (ooi, who’s the one person you’d swap, @maria?) especially because I put my list out first which makes is easier for people to just say “yeah I agree”, but fundamentally I’m treating my townreads seeing the game similarly as a good thing

I’d quite like bingle to talk about his firebringer read, actually, as that seems like a bit of a point of disagreement with the general consensus

I didn’t necessarily mean partner/non-partner tells, but like does the gamestate make sense to you if the scumteam is contained in those names/does each scumread make sense on an individual level?

[Menalque]

Okay why, because pure boi and Maria said the same thing but I thought it was a really +scum reaction to have

I dont think he reacts to scumreads opinionatedly and aggressively like this

Based on past experience or just how he is generally?

[Menalque]

@lilith when you’re next here who do you feel is strongly town?

[Datisi]

What did you think of my readslist more generally?

i actually agree with a lot of it?

which kinda makes me think back to when scum!you said something like "Datisi's and my reads are matching and that could be me getting pocketed" or some bullshit

what's your thought on our reads Mostly Matching here

@dats regarding 1278, do you think it’s implausible that the entire scumteam could be in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt)?

i don't necessarily see anything that's strongly poitning to "not partners"
but also nothing that's pointing to "partners"
so uhh
no?

I’d kinda like you to help explain to me your reads on everyone so I can check my thought process against yours, but like that seems positive to me? Yeah there’s a little bit of fear, same as I have with Maria saying her list is basically mine (ooi, who’s the one person you’d swap, @maria?) especially because I put my list out first which makes is easier for people to just say “yeah I agree”, but fundamentally I’m treating my townreads seeing the game similarly as a good thing

I’d quite like bingle to talk about his firebringer read, actually, as that seems like a bit of a point of disagreement with the general consensus

I didn’t necessarily mean partner/non-partner tells, but like does the gamestate make sense to you if the scumteam is contained in those names/does each scumread make sense on an individual level?

i think i already explained quite a bit of them?
people like S_S/mist/FB are like literally "i got nothing"

you know fun fact
i've been playing mafia (on MS) for over a year now and i see the word "gamestate" thrown around a lot and i always took it to mean "what do you ~feel~ the game is like" and like at this point i hope i'm right?

uhhh i'm fully expecting there to be at least one scum in my townreads
i've had my early game solves but when they happen i usually feel Really Good about my reads and right now i kinda Don't

i think on an individual level they make sense
and again
i don't see anything strongly pointing (wrt "gamestate") towards or away from those names so like sure i guess wouldn't surprise me

[skitter30]

I think it’s reasonable to dismiss the top outcome and the bottom as highly unlikely for now (can be reconsidered in the case of a large number of PR/VT flips later on) which gives us 2 setups, one with a two man scumteam, one with a threeman.

i'm not super comfortable removing those setups until/unless we have further information that shows why this would be highly unlikely
(and you saying this reminds me of nom's c++) ...

[skitter30]

I misread implausible as plausible, sorry
I think it's unlikely the entire team is in that group.
If its a 2man scumteam maaaaaaaybe but if its a 3man i would be quite shocked

Okay, then where am I going wrong?

What if I expand that to include S_S?

The whole scumteam in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt, S_S)?

well lilith is one of my strongest townreads and i don't agree with scumreading pp so like ...
i don't feel like i can make a good determination rn

i would be shocked if all scum were in {pp, lilith, chem} if it's a 3man. if it's a 2man slightly more likely but i'm not super vibing it
i can see like 2 scum in {pp, lilith, chem, ss}, i guess

[skitter30]

Okay why, because pure boi and Maria said the same thing but I thought it was a really +scum reaction to have

I dont think he reacts to scumreads opinionatedly and aggressively like this

Based on past experience or just how he is generally?

based on your normal that you're citing for scumreading him ...

[Menalque]

I think you’ve actually not explained that many

Like: pb/Lilith/Blake/bingle and even there I don’t think you’ve explained that much, plus not having much on S_S/chem/fb

But there’s still like skitt/PP/maria who I don’t think you’ve given a read on. Could you do me a readslist for ease of reference?

I think gamestate refers to what you feel is happening in the game, yeah. So like, a gamestate feels resisty so scum are either defending their partner or they’re trying to be in the right side of a townflip for example

[Menalque]

I think it’s reasonable to dismiss the top outcome and the bottom as highly unlikely for now (can be reconsidered in the case of a large number of PR/VT flips later on) which gives us 2 setups, one with a two man scumteam, one with a threeman.

i'm not super comfortable removing those setups until/unless we have further information that shows why this would be highly unlikely
(and you saying this reminds me of nom's c++) ...

This is... quite literally the opposite of c9++ where I argued that we were in a 0T setup to fit the fakeclaim I was going with, in the face of math that someone(ddl?) had done that quite clearly showed that was the least possible outcome of all of them

[skitter30]

i'm saying that i'm wary listening to you handwaving away two of the setups out of consideration just yet

[Pink Ball]

@mena about the setup, we first flip gobble, then we discuss it. Scum has more info about the setup so they could know that SK is a safe claim. I mean no one's going to counter, but they could be caught in the future if the allegedly real SK flips